econometric analyses of us abortion policy

8/17/2019 Econometric Analyses of US Abortion Policy

1/32

ECONOMTRIC ANALYSES OF U.S.

ABRTIN POCY: ACRITICA REVEW

Jnathan Klick*

INTRODUCON

Few social issues i the Uite States are as cotetious as thelegal status of iuce abortio irty years ater the SremeCourt eclare state lws restrictig abortio ucostitutioal iR Wad! oll results suggest that te Uite States oulatiois almost eely slit oer whether the ext omiee to the Sureme Court shoul suort or oose legal abortio i most or allcotexts e saliece o the issue is arguably amog the higestof all atoal issues

e motiatio behi may iiiuals' ositios regarigabortio olicy iges o ormatie ugmets. at is may eole arrie at teir abortio ositio base o some moral ecisioabout te relatie rights of the moter a te etus 4 Presumablythere is a cosequetialist comoet to te abortio questio thatis largely igore i iscussios of ublc oiio about abortio5

* ssa a man ns nsu

ssisan Pss aw and Cs Pss nmis lda a nvs J. G asn nvs; P.. (nms) G asnnivs

40 3 (973) n BC ws l ndd Jun -5 003 und a n

09 adus avd a nmin sin ain s n al ms sansw n avng a nmin w ss an n al msass. See avd s Most Amerans Want to Know Supreme Court NomneesVews on Aborton Jun 9 003 aaable at anws.gmsinss00ssan03069_llm las vsd 9 004) al

uas al sndns ndad a wand nmns dss sn n an is dng nman ss See d3 See d. ; see also V CAR ADD KRYN BWMAN U

NN RTN 48 (d d 999) (sgsn a an was dsv ss 38% vs n 99 and 996)

4 See ADD & BWMAN upra n 3 a 8-9 (vidn ndi vn s snin lln ss addssng qusin w an nsus md) see aso d a 4 (ng qsns adn a wmans g mak dsns au w an an ain).

5 See d. a 0 add Bwman's al 4 us n is ssu n a

sns l sls m a usn nn w n d s an uw ad s an See d. a 0. s nal qsnwv ds n xliil xlud gs mnn m wla analss

75


2/32

75 FORDHAM URBAN AW O UAL ol

This cosequetialist comoet howeer has receie the buko attetio i the socia sciece literature regarig abortio

olicye social sciece literature o te eec o o oicy has

grow tremeously urig the ast ecae While ubic healtha emograhic schoars ha cosistety examie the eects ochages i abortio oicy ee beore R there has bee a exlosio o research o the suect i ecoomics ourals i recetyears While a ew o these articles are rimai thr se7 theio's share o the icrease i attetio eote to this subect hascome i the orm o ecoometric or statistical aayses o cgei abortio olicy

may ways chages i abortio olicy esecialy the issue olegaizatio reset emirica researchers with a iea mechasmthrough which to ietiy causa relatioshis betwee chages iiceties relatig to sexua behaior a a host o emograhica ublic health outcomes e costs a beeits o sexua be

haior are subectie a are ikey to be corelate with may obserable a uobserable iiiua characteristics i s makes itiicut to raw causa iereces about the sesitiity o sexualbehaior to inceties Ee i ata are aailable o the costs abeeits o sexual behaior accruig to a iiiual a airly heroicassumtio i most cotexts ay obsere corelatios betweebehaior or outcomes a chages i those costs a beeits

o abotion olic at is it s unclea wete individuas ae balancn te valueso otectin e value o coice o a woman and te value o te etus its aainstmoe specic and tanibe coss and beneits o abotion olic suc as oental eductions in wefae aments cime etc

6 See eg , Bonnie aube et a Aborton Counselng and Behaoral Change 4FAMIY PANNIN PERSEIVES 23 1972) ; Jean Pakte ieda elson Abortonn New York Ct The Frst Nne Months 3 FAMY PANNIN PERSETIVES 597) ; obet G. Potte Addtonal Brths Aerted when Aborton s Adde to Contraepton 3 TUES N FAIY PANIN 53 972)

7 See generall Geoe kelo et a. An Analss oj OutojWedlockChldbearng n the Unted States 11 Q J N 277 99 (ovidin a mode nwic te availabiit o abotion and bit conto lowes te incidence o sotun"maiaes sstematicall disadvantain women wo coose not to use bit contoo aboton sevices) . is eec is eneated b t fac tat suc women will beaced at a cometitive dsadvantae in te atin maket eative to women wo willavai temselves o bit contol and abotion d at 4 is cometitve disadvantae leads to inceases in emale ovet as women wo eect bit contol and aboion mus make emselves moe available sexuall o comee n e matn maketwtout an omise o maae in te event o an unlanned enanc d ile

e autos do ovde some istoical evidence to suot tei mode tee is nooous economeic testin involved d


3/32

4 U ABORTION POI 75

might ey well be atifacts of omitte aiables biases 8 Chagesi abotio olicy howee geeally aect costs a beefits of

sexual behaio i kow a uambiguous ways Futhe sicethe chages ae geeally the esult of legislate acto o uicialfiat, they ae likely to be exogeous. at is, the chages will beothogoal o uelate to a iiiuals chaacteistics, obiatigthe coce that the chages i costs a beefits will be coelatewith imtat aiables that ae omitte i the ecometicaalysis

coometic eseaches hae exloite this attactie asect ofchages i abotio olicy to examie umeous imotat sociala emogahic elatioshis ese iclue the effect of iceties o sexual actiity a the effect of limitig uwate bithso welfae aymets cime ates, a womes eucatioal attaimet, as well as the iect effect of chages i abotio olicy oabotio a fetiity ecisios

Settig asie the ightsbase agumets fo a agaist abotio

aailability, these ositie aalyses hae lage imlicatios fo theealuatio of abotio olicy sohisticate uestaig ofwhat ecoometic eseach tells us about the effects of abotioolicy coul geatly imoe social welfae by ifomig olicymakes about the cosequeces of thei actios Ufotuately,the ecoometic liteatue o this toic is techicl, lacig it beyo the ke of most licymakes Futhe, some meia oulaizatios of eseach i this fiel hae bee ifluece by the

aious gous who hae a este iteest i seeig abotio olicyswaye i oe iectio o aothe Both of these coces ceate

8 Forally, an oid variabls bias occurs whn h ru saisical odl hadscribs variabl as h for = whr is a vcor o variabls ha inlunc h valu o , howvr h siad rlaionship ois on or or of hvariabls ha copris and hos oid variabls ar corrlad wih on oror of h variabls includd in h siaion. civly, h siad coficins for h includd xplanaory variabls will b biasd if h variabls ar corr

lad wih h oid variabls bcaus h siad coficin will includ so ofh fc of h oid variabl on h varabl. n his poin s ILLIAM GREEE ONOMETR ALYSIS 33437 4h d. 2000).

9. rasns for oiing iporan variabls in a saisical analysis can a anubr of ors n possibiliy is ha i is no obvius a prir ha a paricularvariabl should b iporan in analyzing h drinans o h variab bcaushory dos no provid suicin guidanc or prvious pirical anayss hav noidnifid h iporanc of h oid variabl. nohr possibiliy is ha daa forh oid variabl hav no bn collcd in sufficin dail. hird (and prhapsh os iporan) possibiliy is ha h oid variabl is inhrny unquanifi

ab or is unobsrvab vn hough i is an iporan drnn of h y riablundr sudy.


4/32

754 FORDHAM URBAN L JOURNAL ol. XXXI

a troubig isoet betwee sholarly researh a oliy i thisarea.

I this artile I will attemt to esribe the eoometri researh o abortio oliy i a ma s ccsble' t someoewithout formal traiig i eoometris highlightig the oiy imliatios of the researh as we as ay serious methooogialshortomigs whih might limit the alue of ay artiuar ee ofshoarshi I may ways out of eessity this reiew wi ot beexhaustie. I will fous rimaril o rese s lyhages a ata is is ot meat to suggest that there is o

quality researh examiig the exeriees of oher outeere is i fat a large literature lookig at foreig exeriees.If the rimary goal of this artie howeer is to iform US oliyit will geerally be most usefu to examie US soures I haeaso largely igore the iterestig emirial literature examiigthe etermiats of abortio ositios hel by oters a oitiias. ese stuies are ot iretly releat to ealuatig USabortio oliy

I terms of orgaizatio hae iie this reiew ito ategories base uo the eeet ariables examie i eah of theeoometri stuies Broaly seakig the maority of stuies abe ategorize as lookig at outomes i the followig areas: sexual behaior rime oortuities for wome a ubli fiae

0. n fact ome of te earliet literature ocue on oter countrie ue to geaeaortion availailit See generally o iert Pearce An Unusual Frequency Ds

trbutonThe Term of Aborton , 22 BIERI 250 (930 (eamining te aortiontatitic a alie to women wo receive aortion at t Gile oital in nglan; icael . eitelaum Fertlty Eects of the Abolton of Legal Aborton nRomana 26 PAIN UD. 405 (972 (icuing te fertilit efect of te aolition of legalize aortion in omania Critoer ietze The Demgrahc Sgnf-cance of egal Aborton n Easte Europe ERAHY 19 (1964 reentingulie an unuie ata from ource in at German Polan ungar anCzecolovakia

1. See e.g teen F Gomann & oert . felt Votng n the US Houseon Aborton Fundng ssues: The Role of Consttuents and Legslators deology

Before and Aer the Webster Decson 53 N & 445, 445 (1994) seealso George . Creanti et a. (99 deology Consttuent nterests an ena-toral Votng The Case of Aborton 72 . . Q 588 588 (991)

2 t ou e note owever tat tee tuie mgt contain ueu information to e eoite in ituation were te toga artio olic i eclear. at i i tate aortion olicie are teaticall relate to variale tat aloinfuence te articular y variale eing tuie omitte variae ia cou limit tevalue of a tu reult. owever we etter unertan te etermnant of aortion olic we can etter evaluate te ortogonalit aumtion an in cae wereit i not vali we migt e ale to ientify eogenou intrument (ie. variale tat

affect aortion olic ut o not irectl affect our y variale tat can e ue toinuce ortogonait


5/32

4 ABORION 755

effets I have hose t exlue the very large lterature examg the effets of aborto oly o emograh atters Ths

mso es ot reet ay lak of terest ths lteratureCoverg the researh ths area eve ou moretha ouble the legth of ths artle. Further a book overg thsmateral great etal has bee wrtte by oe of the foremostresearhers ths area Phll Leve a wll be ublshe later 4 ve that Leve susses the exstg researh theotehal toe to whh I asre ths artle ayh woul a by way of ommet o ths researh woul be largely

sueruousother orgazatoal eve that I hose ot to emly s f

feretatg betwee stues fusg o aborto legalzato astues fusg o subseuet ly hages Whle there s agoo eal f hetergeety the oly varat that emetrstues exlt as a theretal matter all f the hages bl owto hages aess t abrto. Put a fferet way olyhages a be see as hages the efetve ost or re ofabrto For examle legalzat smly lowers the ost f btag a abort se t remves ay ealtes that the statea mose o thse seekg r rvg aborts t als reuesthe searh osts etale fg a aborto rover; amre tha lkely t makes abort roeures safer. Smlarlyrease ubl fug for abortos thrugh sh rgrams asMea lowers the st f abrto. Paretal ote reure

mets maatory watg eros reuremets that formatoabut aborto alteratves be rve to vuals seekg aaborto a the lke all serve to rease the effetve ost fobtag a aborto Restrtos o the atvtes of ataborto rotestrs however lower the ost of abort16

I HE FFEC OF ABORON ACCESS ON EXUL EHVOR

The lk betwee abrto aess a sexual behavor s farlystraghtforwar The rsk of a uwate regay rereset a

13. Phillip B. vi X AN CONSQNS: ORTION, PO AN TH E-ONOMS O FRTT foroig 2004)

14. HAR POSNR X AN ASON 277 1977) .15 . CHRSTOHR TZ NU ORTON 1979 a 86 3d d 1979) iz

ia a bw 1963 ad 1968, wh o aborio wr prford illgally faaliy ra wa 72 ou of vry 100,000 aborio prford d 1976, afraoal lgalzao h ra had droppd o 0.8 pr 100000. Id

16. o doub ay of h o ar pyi a oppod o fiaial bu hadicio ak lil difr a h aalyial lvl


6/32

756 FORDHAM URBA LW JO UAL [Vol XXX

ost of rsky sexual atvty f uals make ther hoes aboutsex ratoally, as the margal ost of egagg sex ereases we

woul exet vuals to have more sex s aess to abortobeomes heaer the exete st an nwane ay ereases, se aborto a be ewe as ex ost brth otrol orsurae agast a uwate regay ths mles tat vuals wll egage more rsky sex

e ratoal bass for esos about sex goes largely uuestoe the eooms lterature though that re soal sees8 Poser roves a goo overvew of the osts a

beefts osere by vuals whe makg eso aboutsexual atvtes Phll Lee revews some of the eee forthe ratoal hoe moel of teeage sexual behavor, otrastg twth the more sotaeous or rratoal oetos of sex that areromet other fels 2 Usg state level ata, he shows thataratos ost sgfatly affet the eso to egage sexual atvtes, as well as the eso to use reetve brth otrolmeasures

Formally seakg, f a ual's utlty s a ostve futoof the uatty of sex osume, a the ost of sex s the reasg lkelhoo that t wll result a uwate regay, vuals wll osume sex u to the ot where the margal beeft ofsex euals the margal ost of sex s log as there s ereasgmargal utlty of sex a erease the lkelhoo of a uwatebrth wll ue vuals to have more sex21

Testg the emral valty of ths hyothess, however, s oteasy Data gathere by researhers o sexual atty suffer frommay roblems e earlest largesale ataset o sexual atvtyat least for the Ute States was ollete by lfe Kseythrogh hs sttute for Sex Researh whh was foue

7 See Philip B. vin ougas taigr Art as surae ATL B·EAU N. ESEARH (2002) avalale at httppaprsnbrorgpaprsw8813

18 See geerall JANET B. ARDY AUIE AIN, DESENT PE·

AN IN AN RAN NIRNMENT SSUES PAMS, AND ALUATIN (1991 )(suggsting that th sx dcisions of tnagrs and utiaty prgnancy outcosar priariy a funcion of biologica akup and dvopnt as w as faiy andcounity charactristics)

19 PSNER, supra no at 32-9020 See geerall Phiip vin The Sexual Atvt ad Brth Ctrl Use f

Amera Teeagers AT'L BUREAU N ESEAH (arch 2000) (vauatingvidnc rgarding tns sxua activity and birth control us using an phasis onconoic anaysis) avalale at httpwwwnbr.orgpaprsw7601

1 Jonahan Kick oas tratann The Eet f Art egalat

Sexual Behavr: Evdee frm Sexuall Trasmtted Dseases 32 J EAL U07 (003 )


7/32

4 ABORION POLY

9.22 hugh the ublat Ksey 's Sexal Behavior in theHman Male 9 a Sexal Behavior in he Hman Female

9 a rghtly be alle the begg systemat emralresearh the el sexualty the ata r m ve terms years a areas vere.2 herere ther useuless slmte r researhers teg t use them t stuy reats tstate level abrt ly a aess26 Further the samlgmets use by Ksey were less tha eal. Preset the results f a mmss rgaze by the mera Statstalssat Wllam Chra Freerk Msteller a Jh ukey

te that althugh [t]he statstal a methlal asets f[Ksey et. al's wrk are utstag mars wth therl eag sex stues . . . May [Ksey's] fgs are subet tuest beause f a ssble bas the sttut the samle. "27 s the mera Statstal ssat ts ut beauseKsey a s researhers ha lttle guae frm statstastrae rer samlg mets t s ulkely that ubase erees abut the ulat a be rawn frm the Kseyata.28

Eve f these rblems ha bee remee as they are sstate mer survey ata llete abut sexual behavr)the mera Statstal Sety rert ts t tat survey re

22_ S grall LRD C. KISEY, ET A, XA BEHAIR N TH MANAL (1998) prsig Kisys prical rsarch pracics a sxuaiy inh d as)

23 Id24 RED C. KINSY, ET A, XAL BHAVIR IN H MAN FMAL

(1998) xaig idividuals sxua pracics hrugh irvws wh ricaas)

25 S PA GHARD & LAN B JHNSN ARINAL ALATINS 19381963 NTERVIEWS CNDED Y TH NSTITTE R EX ESARH (998) daa wr ccd hrugh inrviws cducd by h siu r x sarch r Kisy and hs cagus in h yars br h sius uding) durng h prid 19381963 Id

26 ls h liid vara in icia picis rlad abrin during his

i prid wuld hidr an aays' aby isla prcis crrlas bwabri accss and sxual bhavir v i prc daa wr avalab aa hubr ilgal abrs prrd prir h lgaizai prid is varyigqualiy ad s unavaiabl r cra sas ad crai i prids

27 iia G Cchran, al Stattcal Problms o h i Rp TAT. . 673 67475 (1953)

28 n xapl a surc sapling bias has d wih rusa ras. a is h indvduals wh rus answr a sx survy ar a nrad subs hppulai i is dicul draw unbiasd inrcs abu h ppuai Fr xapl i sxuay csrvaiv indivduals ar ss wling answr a sx survy han ar

r acv idividuals h daa will yil upward biasd sa sxua bhavrr h ppulain as a whl Id a 65


8/32


9/32


10/32

0 FORDHAM URBAN LW J URNAL [Vl.

experment s repeated n 9 wth the early legazng states nwservng as the cntrl grup aganst whch the change frm base

lne s measured4 ey fnd that abrtn legazatn ed t anncrease n gnrrhea and syphls ts t twentyfvepercent44

As fr the dvergence/cnvergence hypthess (.e, the hypthess that we shuld bserve an ncreasng gap between eary and atelegalzng states n 90, and that gap shuld subsequenty dsappear n 9) Klck and Stratmann get mxed sts hhthe dvergence/cnvergence pattern emerges unambguusy fr

gnrrhea45 syphls rates exhbt nly a dvergence but no sbsequent cnvergence46 The authrs speculate that ths unexpectedresult flws frm tw dsyncratc characterstcs f syphs Frstaggregate syphls rates cntan a relatvely hgh prprtn f hmsexual nfectn rates n whch abrtn legalzatn wll haven effect;4 and secnd syphls s stll cntagus after treatmentsuggestng that eary legalzng states amassed a relatvey large

p f nfectrs between 90 and 9 generatng a dfferentalnfectn rate whch the ate legazng states culd nt match48thugh the Klck and Stratmann study prvdes relatvely

strng evdence that ncreased abrtn access nduces ncreasedsexual actvty and STD rates,4 ther analyss s nt wthut tsshrtcmngs By analyzng aggregate STD rates they necessarymss ptental racal hetergenety That s t may be the case thatdfferent subppuatns reacted t ncreasng abrtn access

dfferently5

43 Id a 42 b3,4

44 Id45 Id a 430 ig

46. Id a ig.247 Id a 430

48. Id

49. nrsingly ahugh Klick and ramann idniy an abrin fc n ras ha is highly signican bh sasically and pracical, h mdca jnals and h CC d n mnin his n any h hundrds aricls discussing h incrass n gnrrha ras bsrvd durng his im nsad many hCC publcains simply assr ha changing yuh bhavir and scial mals hsxual vlun) gnrad h incras wihu prbing h undrlyng ncnivsa wrk. Cmpare CENTERS FR ISEASE CNTR, avalable at hp:cdcgvwth Kick & ramann upra n 2.

50 lhugh h daa d n allw sring by rac Klick and ramann ar ab dirnia fcs by sx y ind n larg dincs bwn mals and

mas rgarding h crrlain bwn ras and abrin See Kick & aman, supa n 2, a 424 bs. 5 6


11/32

4 ABORION

Perhaps more importantly there is no way for Klick ad Stratmann to separate the effects of increased sexual activity from the

effects of substituting away from alterate forms of birth controlat is it is also the case that the legaliaion of aorion maesthe relative value of using condoms declie If idividuals wereess likely to use condoms when abortio was legalized we wouldobserve increasing STD rates even if idividuals had no more sexas a result of the legaliatio I essece Klick and Statmansresut indicates an increase in risky sex but that icrease is pooeefect of more sex in the aggregate and a replacement of safe sexfor unsafe sex ere is no way to tell from their analysis what therelative proportions are of the two causal mechaisms in their etfindings

Also though not a problem from a positie standpoint the normative welfare impications of Klick and Stratmanns findings areunclear ile increased STD rates are an uambiguous loss tosociety costing a additional $ milio in treatment expenses

per year51 this might be a smal cost relative to the value derivedby individuals from the increase in risky sex Thus it is unclearwhether Klick and Stratmanns results have any implications foraortion policy They certainly have a bearing on future epidemioogica research on STDs however

Reaching a similar though weaker conclusion is Sen who examnes the effect of restrictions on Medicaid funding of abortios onfemale goorrhea rates It is assumed that reductons in public

funding of abortions increases the cost of obtaining an abortio ateast for some suset of a state's populatio. Ths decrease in aborton access should lead to a reduction i risky sexual behaviorwhich will be manfested through lower STD rates53

Sen examines female gonorrhea rates for the period 999The time frame exploits the fact that i 9 federal Medicaidfunding for abortion procedures was cut by the Hyde Amendmetleaving funding decisions up to the states discreton By the end ofthe sample just seventeen states funded abotios or OO wme54 This significant variation in fuding prohibitions allows Sen

5 Id a 43 h auhors sia ha if h ffcs ca b xrapoad oh s, h cos is cosr o $4 biio anuay. Id

52 Bisaha , rlimiary Isigai h Efcs f Rsriis Mdicaid udig fr Abris Fal STD Ras 2 J. ALTH N 453 , 454(2002)

53 Id a 45454 a 456


12/32

76 FORDHAM URBA AW JORNAL [l XXX

t separate ut the effects f abrtn access frm any dsyncratcstatelevel STD patterns

Smlar t Klck and Stratmanns results, Sen determnes that reducn abrtn access leads o a uo STD 55 Sen'sestmates , hwever, are nt statstcally snfcant s lack f snfcance des nt appear t be the result f a nearzer effect nSTD rates ndeed, Sen fnds reductns f as much as fur percentresultn frm Medcad fundn restrctns, whch wuld seem tbe fary lare56 Sens estmates hwever, a er readn t the lack f statstcal snfcance One way n whch anncrease n precsn culd be acheved wuld be t explt te acthat prhbtns were ntrduced at dfferent tmes thruhutcertan years. That s Sen cdes a state as havn a prhbtn neffect fr a ven year as a zerne dummy varable, takn thevaue f ne f fundn was prhbted at any pnt durn theyear5 f ne state passes a prhbtn n anuary whle antherpasses a prhbtn n September Sens analyss treats the prhb

tns as equvalent Perhaps a fractnal prhbtn varablewuld be mre apprprate t accunt fr ths dfferental tmneffect Further Sen des nt accunt fr the fact that edcadfundn fr abrtns n nnprhbtn states vares snfcantlyf a state prvdn enerus fundn fr abrtns enacts a prhbtn we wud expect a much larer effect n STD rates than wewuld frm a parsmnus state s prhbtn Each f these specfcatn ssues culd snfcantly affect the precsn f Sens est

mates perhaps eneratn statstcally snfcant ceffcents dfferent apprach t determnn the effect f abrtn plcy

n sexual behavr nvlves examnn prenancy rates as ppsedt SD rates e majr prblem wth fcusn n prenancy ratess that the data are f a enerally pr qualty Specfcally prenancy rate data are derved by addn the bserved brth rate tthe abrtn rate Such a measure nres prenances that end nspntaneus abrtn e mscarrae) and unreprted abrtnsccrdn t the Natnal Lntudnal Surve f Yth whchstarted ntervewn ndvduals between the aes furteen andtwentyne n 979 and cntnues t ntervew them annually,nearly seven percent f the respndents' prenances ened n m

55 d a 453

56 d5 Id


13/32

4 ABORION PO 763

carriage8 f tis measurement error relative to te true pregnancy rate is systematicaly related to canges in abortion policy

any inferences drawn about te causa effects of policy wi bebiased.

Despite tis probem, a number of studies ave examined teeffect of abortion poicies on pregnancy rates eiter directy or indirectly examining te reationsip between abortion and sexualbeavior Again using Medicaid restrictions as te pocy mecanism of interest Levine, Trainor, and Zimmerman nd a aesrestricting Medicaid funding for abortion during te years 1977-1988 witnessed a decrease in teir pregnancy rtes on te order o77% . 0 Disregarding te probems wit pregnancy rate data discussed above tis too impies tat increasing abortion access increases te incidence of unprotected sex nterestingy, LevineTrainor and Zimmerman find tat tis effect seems to be drivenmostly by beavior among tose in te fifteen to twentyfour agerange6 implying tat te beavior of young people is te most

sensitive to canges in abortion accessOne last metric tat as been used to study te eect of abortionaccess on sexual beavior as been survey data about sexual experiences Despite te misgivings about survey data in tis areapresented above, tese data do ave te benefit of alowing researcers to disaggregate te volume of sex question from temetod of birt control question. Tat is studies reying on STDor pregnancy rates can ony isoate canges in te tota amount of

risky sex taking place ey cannot discern weter estimates aredriven by more total sex or by a comparable level of sex wereindividuals coose not to use STD or pregnancy prevention measures, includig condoms

58 V Josph oz, al. Tag Childbarig ad I Li Cyl CoquExploiig a Naural Exprim AT' BOARD O ES. EN 8 c. 1999) aaila-bl a hpwwwb.ogpapsw7397.

59. S Phillp B vi al. Th E o Mdiaid Aborio udig ri-

io o Aborio rgai ad Birh 15 J. EAT E 555 56 1996)boios a codd a h plac of occuc ah ha h sa of sdc.f w assum ha aboos a o dfficul o g .g. fw povds moposos c.) sas ha also happ o pass dicad scios ducig dvduas o av o oh sas o g h aboios, h as epgacy a would b sysacaly lad o h dcaid scio vaiab.his would ca a dowwad bas h siad ffc of dcad scos opgacy as bcaus aboo as would b udsimad i sas wh sicios ad ov sad i sas whou sicios ladg o a lag pgacy diffial ha acually xss Id

60. Id a 56 b.2.6 Id a 56869 b..


14/32

764 FORDHAM URBAN A JNAL Vl XXX

Phllp Levine nvestigates this issue usng data frm the 988and 995 atnal Surveys f Family Grwth relating the re

spnses f teens t whether r nt the state n which they live hasenacted a parental invlvement law n genera hee aws requreminrs t nfrm their parents r t btain their parents' cnsentbefre receiving an abrtin62 Levne finds that the intrductinf a parental invlvement law lwers the ncidence f unprtectedse amng wmen ages fifteen t eghteen (during the threemnths prir t the survey) by si percent thugh h rs s significant at the eght percent cnfidence level Mst f this increase is the result f a substitutn tward using cntracetirather than an increase n the underlying level f seual activity6These results imply that amng yung wmen abrtin is seen asa substtute fr e ante brth cntrl Given reasnable suspicnsabut survey data in this area hwever Levines estmates are ntterribly precse

The mst clearcut finding f these ecnmetrc studies f the

relatinshp between abrtin plicy and seual behavir is thatindividuals even yung indviduals whse seual beavir is ftencnsdered t be driven mre by emtn than by calculatin aresensitive t the csts f ther seual actvity hen tse csts increase as predcted by the law f demand individuals engage inless risky se mprving abrtin access n the ther hand wlllead t mre risky se and its attendant cnsequences Frm a plicy standpnt this mples that lawmakers and their analysts

shuld treat behavr as endgenus That is in predicting the neteffects f future plicy it s nt reasnable t assume that behavirwill remain cnstant when incentives change64

II. ABORO D RME

ugh the causal cnnectin between crime and abrtin is less

drectly bvus than that between abrtin and seual behavirthe literatue lnking abrtn and crime has attracte atentinwell beynd the academic jurnals Jhn Dnhue and StevenLevitt first investigated the link in when they hptheszed

62 S Pllp B vi, artal lvmt Laws ad rtlty Bhav 22 EAT ON 86, 862 (2003).

63. S d at 874

64 S Kc & raa, supra o � s als cae Keme, tgratgBhavral Ch It Epdmlgcal Mdls f AIS 1 O 49 (996).


15/32

00] ABORTION POLCY 765

that egalizing artin wu affect susequent cme ratesthrugh a numer f ifferent channels65

First, if egalizing artins reuces the numer f chilren rn,it wuld als necessarily eventualy reuce te numer nvuals in the age chrt f late aescence, that cmmits mst f thecrimes Citing wrk y Levine, et al ,66 Dnhue an Levitt expecte this effect t yield aut a five percent ecrease in crime6Further they hpthesize that since the ecrease in irths wil isprprtinately cme frm reuctins y thse wmen least wlling an ale t care fr their chiren, an chilren rn t thesemthers are mre likely t resrt t criminal activities in their lateaescent years tan the rest f the pplatin, the reuctin inirths will isprprtinately affect the suset f the ppulatinthat cmmits mst f the crimes68 is implies an expecte artininuce ecrease in the crime rate n the rer f twenty percent fr thse chrts whse mthers ha access t legaartins6 This wul represent aut haf f the actual crime

ecrease witnesse uring the 990s, when the first legalize artin chrt reache its peak crime years7T test these hyptheses an ack f the envelpe calcuatins,

Dnhue an Levitt reasne that crime shul have first ecrease in the early legalizing states f Alaska Califrnia, awaiiNew Yrk an Washingtn, with the rest f the states achievingtheir reuctins three years later Because the artin rates inthese states cntinue t e higher than ter states even after

Roe the authrs ecie t use artin rates rather than a legaizatin ummy as their artin plicy variale They fun that,fr the peri 985-997 an aitinal 00 artins per liveirths, e t a decrease in vilent crimes per capita f thirteenpercent, nine percent fr prperty crimes an twelve percent fr

65 o . ooue & ee . ei, Th Ipac Lgalizd Abrin nCrim, 6 Q J ON. 379, 38 2 ereiae ooue & ei Lgalid

Abri] urs ou a soe oaadeis ad preiousy speuaed abou isausa ik bewee aborio ad rie. Id s als NTONY . BOUZA, E PIE YSQUE N NSIDERS OO AT COS, CRIME, AND TE CRIMNAL JSTIEYSTEM 275 99 []rguaby e oy efeie riepreeio deie adopedi is ao sie e ae 96s [is aborio."

66 Piip B eie, P. e a. R v ad ad Amrican riliy , 89 M J.PU EA 99 99 999

67 S ooue & ei, Lgalid Abri, supra oe 65 a 386

68 Id

69 S id a 3990 S id a 386 39.


16/32

766 FRDHAM URAN LAW JURNAL [Vl

the murder rate71 ese results were rughly cnsistent with theirspeculatin that abrtin legalizatin might accunt fr as much as

half f the crime decrease witnessed during the 990s, implyingthat legalizatin saved the ecn $30 li lly in terms fcrime reductin72

Despite the large magnitude f their results Dnhue and Levitturged cautin in drawing plicy impicatns rm ther research,stating [w]hile falling crime rates are n dubt a psitive develpment ur drawing a link between falling rime an lgled tin shuld nt be misinterpreted as either an endrsement f

abrtin r a call fr interventin by the stae in the fertility disins f wmen "73 ey g n t suggest the pssibility thatequivalent imprvements in crime culd be achieved thrugh thermeans such as imprved ex ante birth cntrl avaiability r by im-prving the envirnments in which children at risk fr develpingcriminal tendencies are raised4

ese cncuding remarks suggest that Dnhe and Levitt wereexpecting their research t create a trren f criticisms utside facademic law and ecnmics Prminent prife writers linked theresearch with the field f eugenics75 gh the Dnhue andLevit and arice was ny in wrking paper frm in August f999 a critique f their wrk by Susan Wis was featured in Life

Insight published by the Natinal Cnference f Cahlic BishpsSecretariat fr PrLife Activities76 Writing fr Natinal ReviewOnline, Kathryn Lpez indicated that Dnhue and evitts re

search has eugenics undertnes"77 Even when Gerge Will de-fended their research by pinting ut is essentially psitivefindings (as ppsed t nrmative prescriptins) he cnceded thatthe researchers themselves wuld draw unwarranted charges f being racists urging eugenics "8

71 . Id at 40472. Id. at 41473. ! at 41.74 Id7. san ls, Lgalizd bortion and rim: Egnic with a Happy Fac,

AT CON. O CAT BISOS' ERETARIAT OR PR-E TVTES g1999 , aailabl at ttp://www.nognews/1999/999/cme.tm.

7 Id77 Katyn Jean opez h Othr ath Pnalt Do W Ha ri B

ca o bortion AT EVIEW NINE Jne 19 2001 at ttp:/www.natonalev ewcom/ncomment/ncomment01901a.stml ast ved on p 13 2004 .

78. Geoge F l Mor bortion Fwr rim Do orrlation Man a

ation? What bot th 27 Million bortion in 18 Yar?, EWSWEE p. 30 2001 ,at 84.


17/32

4 u ABORION POI 767

Whil ot arly as bombastic i to as th criticism lvi ith popuar prss, Doohu a Lvitts artic also rw forcfu

criticisms withi th acamic litratur I a upubish papr,oh Lott a oh Whity suggst tha �zatio might paraoxically la to mor sigl part familis, lim-itig th amout of ivstmt ma i th chilr i thosfamilis is rativ pravatio wou b xpct to icrasth likihoo that thos chilr wil gag i crimia ativitisoc thy rach at aolscc8 This ffct wll utsom of th ructio i crim grat by fwr uwat chil

r that is hypothsiz by Doohu a Lvitt 8 Thu, th tffct of lgalizig abortio o crim rats woul b ambiguous

Lott a Whitly raw thir hypothsis from arlir work coauthor by Nobl Laurat Gorg Akrlof82 I a 1996 articl,Akrlof, aog with at Yll a Micha Katz argu that thlgalizatio of abortio (as wll as th itrouctio of ffctiv xat birth cotrol) has sigificat fcts o th markt for mats8f som wom ar willig to hav abortios i th vt of auwat prgacy, thy hav a comptitiv avatag i th at-ig markt sic thy ca offr sxual srvics at a lowr xpctpric (i, thr is o xpctatio that th ma wil b hl rspo-sibl i th vt of a prgacy)84 Wom who ar uwillig tohav abortios, must ithr rop out of th markt or offr sxuasrvics with a owr xpctatio that th ma will hlp support thwoma a chi i th vt of a upa pgacy85 aworl whr abortio is uavailab, all wom ar comptitivquals aog this imsio, allowig ach to lvrag sx for thpromis of marriag aor support i th futur86 Oc abortiois itrouc thos uwilig to hav a abortio ar lss abl to

9 Jon ott J & Jon tley, Aborton and rim: Unwantd hldrn andOtoWdlok Brth YAE AW HOO RORA OR AW ONOS, ANDUL OY 2 4 (ay 1 2001 aailabl at ttp//lsnellcoog/yale/lepp/papes/4 age body of eseac sggests tat clden ased n snge paent fames

and clden ased by a paent and a step paent ave systematcally lowe edcatona otcoes elatve to clden ased n a tadtona ncea famy. S g ,onna K Gnte & obet . Pollak, o Famly Strtr At hildrn Edational Outom? A BURA O ON Es . (p. 003 , aailabl at ttp//nbe.ogpapes/w98

80. S onoe & evtt pra note , at 381.81 Id82. S keof et a., pra note .83 S d at 28184. S id. at 2909.

8. S id.86. Id at 299


18/32

68 FORDHAM URBAN LW JO URNL [V

secure such a prmise ad are mre likely, the margi, t be leftas sigle mthers8

As a empirical matter, Ltt ad hitleys majr criticisms fDhue ad Levitts wrk fcus e latte ic asumethat the abrti rate prir t legalizati i a give state is zerad their failure t disaggregate crime rates by the age f the ffeder88 Ltt ad hitley idicate that the data suggest that abrti rates were relatively high prir t legalizati i may states,with sme legalizig states exhibiig highe tha the early legalizers 8 replicatig Dhue ad Levitts results usig available data prelegalizati abrti rates, Lad hitley fid that the estimated size f the abrti effect crime drps sigificatly whe the zer illegal abrti assumptiis drpped.

Perhaps mre cetral t Ltt ad hitleys criticism is the ageaggregati They suggest that if abrti legalizati drives thereducti i crime durig the 990s, decreases shuld first be b

served i crimes cmmitted by yuger idividuals, ad the decrease shuld ly spread t crimes cmmitted by lder idividualsas time passes T examie this, they use data frm the FBsSupplemetal Hmicide Reprt t reak up te state hmiciderates accrdig t the perpetratrs characteristics, specifically hisr her age2 Oce hmicides are liked t the perpetratrs age,Ltt ad hitley d t fid supprt fr the hypthesis that legalizig abrti lwered crime i the 990s 3 ey d t fid the

reductis ccurrig first i the yugest age grups, but ratherthey bserve reductis i the lder grups first, ad i sme specificatis, they actually fid hmicide rates amg the yugestperpetratrs risig just whe Dhue ad Levitts argumet suggests they shuld have falle4

Alg the same lies as Ltt ad hitleys criticisms, Ted Jyceals fcuses cmpariss f arrest rates ad hmicide rates be

twee chrts that were expsed t legalized abrti ad thse

87 S 88. ott & tley, up ote 79, at 9.

89. at .90 . at 0.

9 . a 592 a 9

93 at 0 .94 at 5


19/32

] u ABORON POLC 9

that were t Fidig csistet evidece that abrti legal-izati is causally liked t crime, yce ccludes that Dhue

ad Levitts aalysis suffers frm mitted variable bias, specificallya failure t accut fr chages i crack se e as criicizesDhue ad Levitts assumpti that prelegalizati abrtirates were zer7

yce suggests that the evuti f crack markets preset aimprtat cfudig factr i eplaiig the variati i crimerates frm the late 9s thrugh the 99s8 Wh respec arti, the fact that crack emerged i New Yrk ad Ls Agees, tw f the five states treated as early egalizers, is partilaltrublesme Ctrllig fr this crack effect at the state leve isdifficult sice it appears as thugh there was sigificat variati ithe develpmet f crack markets betwee varius cities, thuseither yearly fixed effects, state fixed effects, r state specifictreds sufficietly ctrl fr the crack effect yce rpses avel ctrl strategy f cmparig hmicide rates ad arrest rates

fr pre ad pst legalizati chrts withi a give state

isstrategy bviates the ccer f mitted variable bias ad measuremet errr i prelegalizati abrtis terestigly, ycedid t fid csistet decreases i hmicide r arrest rates fr thechrts expsed t legalized abrti, relative t the uexpsedchrts 2 fact, i sme cmpariss he actually fids relativeicreases3

Ulike the Ltt ad Whitley paper,° yces research iduced a

frmal reply frm Dhue ad Levitt, wh resded t whatthey saw as yces five majr criticisms f their wrk egardig yces bjecti t their assumpti f a zer illegal abrti

9. S gnrally Joe supra note 34 (ompang anges n omde and aesates fo oots bo befoe and afte e legalzaton of aboton to anges n men e same eas among sma oots wo wee neposed to legazed aboton

9. S d97. S id (manspt at 21 on fe wt ato

98 S d99. Id. at -7.100 S d a 01. Id a 12-13102. S d at .103 [d at 20.104 ott & tle supra note 79 . nteesng aodng to opez evtt e

feed to ott and les pape as gabage" opez supra note 77.10 Jon J. onoe & teven . evt, Furthr Evdn tat Lgalizd

Abortion owrd Crim A Rply to Joy A' REU OF ECON R (eb.

2003 [eenafte onoe & evtt Rply to Joy] aailabl at tpwnbe.ogpapesw932


20/32

77 FHAM UBAN JO UAL Vl.

rate Dnhue and Levitt argue that this actually iases their results against their hypthesis 16 Dnhue and Levitt assume that

states with high rates f legal artins as have high rates f prelegalizatin artins, and sugges ha e zerprelegalizain artins systematically verstates the increase inartins ater legaizatins 17 Accrding t them this unamiguusly iases their artin cefficient tward zer whic impieshat the true eec f artin n crime is even larger i magnitude (ie, a larger decrease in crime assciate with aborin) ntheir estimate8 yce cunterargues that he directin f this

ias is amiguus, as it depends upn the relative magitudes ftw cmpnents: ) the necessarily psitive sum f the variance fprelegalizatin artin rates and the variance f Dnhue andLevitt's estimae f prelegalizatin artin rates f zer minusthe true prelegaizatin artin rate and ) he necessarily negative cvariance f the true prelegalizatin artin rate and thedifference etween Dnhue and Levitts estimate f zer and thetrue artin rate ° Withut mre infrmatin it is nt pssilet determine the sign generated y adding a psitive and a negativenumer which implies that we cannt rule ut the pssiility thatDnhue and Levitts estimates are iased upward ecause f theirassumptin f zer prelegaizatin artins

Te secnd pint made y yce t which Dnhue and Levittrespnd deals with yces finding that the artin effect des ntshw up in crime rates cvering the perid 98599; i s

apparent eginning in 99

yces cnjecture is that if theartin crrelatin were causa it shuld as e apparent in theearlier perid 1 T this claim Dnhue and Levitt suggest thatcrackrelated crime during this perid was cncentrated in Ls Angeles and New Yrk and this cnfunding effect fr which litte inthe way f slid data exiss allwing researchers t cntrl fr itswamps any existing artin effect2 supprt this claim theypresent data n drugrelated hmicides shwing that the gap e

tween early legaizing states and ther states peaks in 199 Fur

0. Id at .17. Id108. Id109 oyce sra noe 34 at 25-2 3 (ftcomg 2004 (manuscript o file wit

auto0. Id at 2-27 n71 1 Id

112. ooue & evitt Rl to o ra note 05 at 13-1113. Id at ig.3 .


21/32

24] ABORION POLI 77

ther they oit to Joyces ow aaysis showig that a aortioeffec is aaret i the 85 eriod for roerty crimes14

They argue that sice crack is generaly recogized to have lemostly to violet crime as oosed to roerty crime this rovidesindirect evidece that the crack cofound is to ame or the aor-tio effect not showig u geeraly in the 185-1 crime data

Donohue ad Levitt aso caim that the crack heomena is tolame for Joyces faiure to find sigificatl ower crime ratesdurig the 1851 eriod for idividuas from earl egizngstates who were exosed to legal aortio reative to idividualsfrom those states who were orn just efore legalization 1 singhomicide data as oosed to the generalized arrest data used yJoyce Donohue and Levitt show that if a loger widow is ex-amined for these cohorts a significat reductio in crime is o-served for the exosed grou reative to the uexosed grou17Joyce limits his study to a shorer window ecause the arres dataare not roken dow y secific age of the eretrator eyond the

age f wentyfour Thus it is not ossile to searate arrests forthe exosed versus the uexosed ast while the homicidedata used y Doohue and Levi do alow for such searation overa longer time horizo is data limitation makes i imossie tofully evauate Joyces criticism in ight of Doohue and Levittscrack exlaatio Their argument however does seem to e suorted whe alied to the homicide rate

Joyce's fourh criticism to which Donohue ad Levitt rel in-

volves Joyces fidig that in nationa time series data from whichearly legalizig states were excluded there is o sigificat reduc-tion in crimes committed y individuas or ater atioa aor-tio legalization i 17 reative to the cohort orn eforelegalizatio18 Doohue and Levitt's mai oj ection to this criti-cism is that it does t differentiate on the asis of reative accessi-iliy of aortios which they caim varied widey state Forexame they oit out that while Kasas had 44 aortions er

live irths i 17, none were reorted i Louisiana or NorthDakota during that year 12 ey argue that a more aroriaeanalysis would look at itrastate differences etween exosed and

1 Id a 5115 Id a 1511 Id117 Id8 Id a 1 Id a 2020 Id


22/32

77 FORHAM URBAN W JO NAL [Vl

unexpsed chrts, and they present sme evidence r an artin eect using such a speciicatin21

Jyces last criticism adressed y Dnhue and Levitt is hecaim that early egaizing states d t ht greater rdctins in crime relative t later legaizing states, even ater the artin eect shuld have shwn up in thse states as wel, made itimpssile r any served artin eect t e causal22 That is ,i legaizatin per se decreases the incidence unwanted irths,and terere leads t the eventual decrese in ri y Dnhue and Levitt, we shuld expect the later egaizing statest cach up Dnhue and Levitt argue, hwever, tha egaizatper se is nt al that matters, since access still varies under a ulylegaized regime23 Thus, they use an artin rate measure identiy the artin eect n crime, and therey argue thatJyces cus n a inary legaizatin measure misspeciies the truerelatinship etween artin access and crime24

t is interesting t nte that, implicitly, Jyce is seeking a diver-

gence/cnvergence relatinship in crime etween early legalizersand ate legalizers ike that identiied in the article n artin le-gaizatin and sexua ehavir y Kick and Stratmann125 t mighte instructive t cnsider why such a relatinship exists in Kickand Stratmann's analysis STD rates, ut why n such reatin-ship exists r rime One pssiility is that, r Klick and Stratmanns mral hazard argument t wrk, it is nt strictly necessarythat individuals have easy access t artin, ust that they elieve

they have easy access t artin at is, in evaluating the csts sexua activity, knwing that artin is egal might impyenugh a decrease in sujective expected cst t induce an indi-vidua t decide t have risky sex while he might have made a di-erent decisin i artin were illega Fr Dnhue and Levittsargument, hwever, the individual must actually e ale t tainan artin t avid an unwanted irth, i we are expect anyeective change in uture crime rates us, in relative terms, ac

2 Id at 92222 Id at 223 Id. at 22-224 Id. at 22-22 S gally Klick & tatma upra te 2 dcuig te elath be

twee eary legaiig tate a the rate the ead exually tamttdieae)


23/32

4 US ABORTON PO 77

tual access is mre imrtant in the crime cntext, whereas exected access drives the sexua behavir relatinshi.6

Unfrtunately, Dnhue, Levitt and yce are crrect in theirmisgivings abut the thers use f a gven artn measure It isundeniabe that access t abrtn s t hmgeus acrss thestates after egaizatn, imyng that regressins using a binaryegazatin variabe t cature access wil necessarily generate biased resuts It is unikey we ca kw the directin f that biasmuch less its magnitude. On the ther had, using a measure f

thenumber f abrtins erfrmed, even if we had erfect data n

ilega abrtins, wil ead t a simutaneity rbem at is, many abrtins erfrmed will be a unctn f a hst f variabesthat cud as be imprtant n determining the crime rate Frexampe, if incme r educatin are imrtant determinants f theabrtin rate and they als are imrtant determnants f the ikelihd that chidren will engage in criminal activities any regressn fcusing n abrtn rates wll cnfate the effects f parental

ncme and educatin Ths then limits ur cnfdence n thecausal interretatin f the abrtn effect, bth in terms f drectn and magntude

Recgnizing this tensin yce des investigate an ntemedateabrtin ndex. 7 He dvdes the states int tw grus , thse withabrtin rates abve the natinal 197 median and thse belw,cmaring the eventual crime dfferential 8 yce hythesizesthat if there is a causal reatinshi between abrtn access and

future crime, he shud bserve that crime decreases mre fr thestates in the high abrtin gru hwever he finds n evidence fthis In effect, this analysis allws fr mre varatin in the icy variabe than a simle legazatin variabe des while stl mitigatng the simutaneity rblem inherent in using abrtn rates tdentify the effect n crime.

It is unlikey that we will get a cncusive direct answer with resect t the ther majr argument f whether it s pssble t useexsting data t searate an abrtin effect fr tr acts such

126. f cose we wol epect tee to be a signican tog not pefect ela-tionsip between epecte access an actal access.

12. Joyce up ote 34 at 3128. Id129. Id. at 2122 Joyce oes not incle te esls in is pape bt wll poie

te on eqes. e is cently woing on a pape eainng e owi abotionifeential etening te analyss into qatiles in aition to ales.


24/32

774 FORDHAM URB LAW JO URNAL Vol I

as crime 1 Indirect evidence, however, might be very useful IfDonohue and Levitts argument that the reduction of unwanted-

ness will lead to the birth of fewer individuals with relatively lowhuman caital investments mae em by ter arents, and thisreduction will lower the incidence of future behavior tat is costlyto society, we should see this effect with resect to noncriminalbehavior as well For examle, because thee aears to be astong relationshi between a teenager girl's sexual and fetility ex-eriences and family characteristics a eae· wnene n-cluding educational investment, communication, and the mother's

own teenae fetility histoy, 11 it should be ossil exethe Donohue and Levitt hyothesis by looking at teenage reg-nancy differentials between individuals in the cohorts that were exosed to legalized abortion vesus unexosed cohorts12 Alonthose same lines STD ates among teenagers might be a usefuldeendent variable to examine While it still would not be ossibleto overcome the roblems identified with both abortion accessmeasures these measues of socially costly ehavior would not beaffected y the crack eriod in the way that crime is If these be

30. S gnrall Ted Joyce Furthr Tsts brtn and Cr AL RAO N S March 2004 providing ome additional evidence that the Donoheand evitt argment doe not fit the cro ectonal variation in the data and following p on te ott and Whitley ggetion that if abortion were driving the crime

decreae the drop hod have hown p when the firt expoed cohort entered theirlate teen and early twentie, bt he find no evidence of thi oyce alo arge thatthere hould ave been a larger abortion eect on te black crime rate ince abortionlegaliation had a larger effect on black fertility bt he find no ch differentialcrime effect. d at 6-9. atly by comparing homicide rate by ingle year of ageof the perpetrator oyce doe not find that homicide rate dropped for thoe perpetrator expoed to abortion relative to older perpetrator. Id at 20-2. He arguethat thi relt i particlarly powerful becae older adlt were ignificanty leafected by the rie of crac in ran area. d

3 . S, g CRYL AYS SN FR DOSNT XAIT,

RAN AND CLDARIN h. 4 98).32. S gnrally ohn J. Donohe et al., Th mat galzd Abrtn n

Tnag Childbaring A' RAU O N S ne 2002 (invetigating thelagged efect of legalied abortion on the pregnancy rate of teen who were expoedto legalized abortion and thoe who were nt geting tha his abrin ectaccont for half of the decreae in teen cildbearing oberved in the 1990 and all ofthe decreae oberved among nmarried teen, availabl at http//.nber.org/confer/2002/i2002levitt.pdf. ee reult however are bect to many of theame criticim evied againt the Donohe and evitt crime paper Additionalyome of teir etimate raie qetion of plaibility pecifically they find that the

agged abortion effect i.e. legaliation) a a larger effect on teen pregnancy in year tthan doe te abortion rate in year t


25/32

US ABORTIO POI 775

havirs cnfirmed the asic thrust f Dnhue and Levitt's hy-pthesis Jyces criticisms wuld have less ite33

ugh nt in the same direct line f inquiry as that laid ut yDnhue and Levitt, Marianne Bitler an aene avny examine the effect f artin access changes n a specific categryf crimechild ause . 34 Much like Dnhue and Levitt, Bitlerand Zavdny speculate that arted aies are nt a randm drawfrm the ppulatin f cnceived children 3 nstead, artin isikely t e systematically related t wantedness36 Citing evi-dence that unwanted r unplanned children are mre likely t ethe victims f ause,37 Bitler and Zavdny hypthesize hat increasing artin access shuld lead t less child ause38

T test this hypthesis, they examine annual stateeve datafrm the American umane Assciatin and the Natinal Cm-mittee t Prevent Child Ause fr the perid 976996 fcusingn artin legalizatin, Medicaid funding restrictins, parental in-vlvement laws, and manatry waiting perids as their measures

f artin access .3 ugh these data suffer frm significantlimitatins, such as measurement errr wing t the fact that auseis likely nt reprted in all cases in which it ccurs and the fact that

133. gnrally Kerwin ofi Charle Mevin ehen r. Abrin galizain and Adlsn ubsan Us A BUU O ON S. (ep. 2002)(reening ome indirec evidence in favor of he Donohe and Levi hypohei)availabl a h//nberorg/paer/w13 ey how ha individal in he cohor ha were exoed in ero o legalied aborion were mch le ikely o econroed bance reaive o individal conceived and born before aborion walegalied Id a 14. pecificaly Charle and ehen foc on rvey daa onwheher an individal ha ever ed marijana cocaine heroin, or ampheamine andwheher he individal ha ed any of hee bance dring he pa 30 day. Ida b.2. ey ao examine he daa exclding marijana. Id a ey find a largeaiically ignifican effec of aborion exore in boh he "ever ed daa andhe "ed in la 30 day daa (on he order of a 15 percen redcion in likelihood).Id a bl. 1 2. The rel appear o be very rob o many ecificaion incding ing birh rae variaion o ideniy he effec of a change in aborion acceraher han de jre legaliaion) Id a b5 i evidence i conien wih hewaned ne hypohei advanced by Donohe and Levi Se Donohe & Levi,galizd Abrin supra noe 65

134 Marianne Bier Madeline Zavodny hild Abus and Abrin Aailabiliy2 A ON. EV. 363, 36367 (2002

135. Biler Zavodny, supra noe 134 a 363-66136 Id137 an . Zravin, Unplannd Prgnanis amily Planning Prblms and

hild Malramn 36 FAILY ELAIONS 135 135-3 187)138. Biler Zavodny, supra noe 134 a 363-36613. Id a 364. The reearcher e a fraciona variable mearing he roporon

of he year a given olicy wa in effec miigae ome of he emoral aggrega

ion roblem ha arie when a mere 0-1 oic dmm ed o anae borionpolicie. Id a 365-66.


26/32

776 FORDHA URBAN LAW JO URNAL Vol. I

there are ikely to be some spurious reports this data is the bestavailabe information on stateevel abuse patterns Biter and

Zavodny find that legalization significantl lowered the incidenceof child abuse for the cohort of o r cnceived afterlegalization occurred. 14 Surprisingy their resuts suggest that parenta consent or notification laws were associated with lower ratesof abuse.1 41 Whie this does not accord wit the wantedness" hy-potesis, it does make sense in the ight of other research sug-gesting tat parenta involvement laws d d we ee brates .1 4 equirng parental involvement mitigates or counteracts

the moral hazard associated with increased bortio acce, c-ing teens to either engage in less sex or to be more likely to use exante birth contro thereby reducing the number of teenpregnancies Presumaby this result is driving the parenta in-volvement aw effect in Bitler and Zavodnys analysis, since theselaws would not bind for older mothers

ese opposite effects of legalization and parental involvement

lawson chid abuse rates further underscore the ambiguities that

exist in te Joyce Donohue and Levitts debate. hile the legalization result supports Donohue and Levitt's wantedness argumentthe negative effect of involvement laws suggests that Joyce's en-dogeneity of sex argument is empiricaly important Unfortu-natey the deart of data on child abuse keeps us from providingstrong indirect evidence one way or the other on the larger issue ofthe relationship betwen abortion access and general rie

statistics

III. ORTON CCESS ND PPORTUNTES FOR WOMEN

A third aspect of abortion legalization that economists havestudied is its effect on opportunities for women specificaly educa-tional opportunities and labor market effects. The rationale be-hind why we would expect abortion access to affect opportunities

for women is cear. Unplanned pregnancy, especially if it occursduring the teenage or young adult years s ikey t supt a w-mans education potentialy leading to adverse consequences lateron, as the woman attempts to enter the labor market

Atough the negative relationip betwee teeg othhood and educational attainment and income leves as been wel

40 Id at 654 at 66

42 oma J. Kane & Dogla ager, T Mohhood ad Abortio Ass Q J ECON 467-506 996


27/32

4 BORION POL 777

ocumete for quite some time4 it is ot coletey clear thatthe reatioshi is causa For examle there is soe eviece that

teeage cilbearig is relate to faiy caracteristics that arealso imortat etermiats of eucaioa ataimet a ecoomic succss 44 Also, eve beyo otetiay quatifiabe corols tere are resuably a host of uobservabe (a iheretlyuquatifiable) ersoal attributes that aect both a iiviualsikelihoo of gettig regat as a tee a a iiviuals ecoomic success ese atributes coul icue uge abotrisk subective iscou rates moral a ethical beies a teike

e legalizatio of abortio rereses a atural exerimetthrough which researchers ca otetily searate out the eect ofavig a ulae chil from te statistically ucotrollable factors iscusse above. If wome ca ow more easily choose toave a baby or ot every birth i i essece ae" at least eost osua Agrist a William Evas use tis abortioiuce

soc to tee fertiity to isolate the causal effect of teeagecilbearig o eucatioal labor market outcomes 46 grist a Evas fi tat abotio legalizatio le to large rectios i teeage fertility for blac wome a a more moestreuctio for white wome thoug tey o fi that abortio legalizatio i sigiicaty ower te marriage rate for the white

14 S g., Sandra L Hoffert & Kristin A Moore Early Childbaing andat Ecnmic WllBng 44 A Soc. V 84-81 (197944 S g Arlne T Geronimus & Sanders oenman, Th Scicnmic Cn-

qunc Tn Chldbaing Rcnidd 07 Q J EN 11 87, 1 87-124 (199n tat stud te author examned pars of sister who had dffeent tmng of therfst brth (e one had a chd whe a teenage wle the othe one wated until latert ave a cild and found that fami background (whch s contolled for in te sisterpais ha a signficant effect on economic outcomes and the nalt to control suffcientl for backgound ases most estmates of the effect of chldbearng on economic outcomes Id.

45 Tecnicall speakng the authors use reduced fom OLS models fo most ofteir analses and an nstrumental variables model to examne the robstes o theLS results for te effect of teenage chideang on black educatonal and aomarket outcomes wheren the use an interaction between ea and state of brt (e ,effectivel an ndicator of exposure to legalized abotion to instument teenage fertilit for te individuals in the ample The ten use te nstumented fertilit measuen regressions measurng the effect of cildbearng on educaton and economic statusvariables The find that the LS estimates are baed downward slgtl osua D.Angrist & Wlam vans Schling and ab Makt Cnqunc f th 1970btin Rfm A' UAU O N S (anuar 1996 availabl at http://

wwwnberog/papers/w4646 d


28/32

778 FRDHAM URBAN NA ol XXXI

tees i the samle. 7 While it turs out that abortio legalizatioi ot lea to sigificat imrovemets i eucatioal or labor

market outcomes for white woe, black wome exhibite sigifi-cat gais i both categories as ul o gliz48 Secifi-caly, Agrist a Evas fi that the ikelihoo of a blck womagrauatig from high school ecreaes by about twetyfive er-cet er outofwelock chil bor ey fi a effect of similr magitue if they exaie coege etrace likelihoo eyalso fi a egative eect betwee havig outofwek hena emloymet rates a icome levels

A recet workig aer by Soia Oreffice suggests a alteratechae through which abortio legalizatio imroves womes o-ortuities Usig a family bargaiig moe she makes te argu-met that by givig wome cotro over their fertility their relativebargaiig ositio i their famiies grows stroger2 Usig atafrom the Pael Stuy of Icome Dymics for the erio 77 she tests this hyothesis by exiig the effect of abortion

legalizatio o mrrie wome's labor sly, relative the laborsuy of marrie me, oter arrie wome who were ast theirfertile years, a umarrie me wome he fis that fertile marrie wome reuce their labor suly sigificatly as aresult of abortio legalizatio, whie marrie me icreasetheirs ere as o sigificat chage i any of the other com-ariso grous, ilyig tht the bargaiig ositio of fertilemarrie wome i imrove as a reslt of legalizatio ISS

is suggests a iterestig ichotomy whe coare toAkerlof, Yelle, a Katzs oel6 ecificaly, the availabiityof abortio lowers the bargaiig ower of uarrie wome,makig them ess able to ema suort an marriage romisesi retur for sexual services 7 This cotrasts with refficesmoel which imies that abortion availability imroves the bar

d at

8 d at 0 d0 d1 d at tb2 Sna reffce, h Lgliztin Ab nd Wn ' Brnn

Pr n h Hushld Evidn m Lbr upply Dec 00 ilbl t ttp//me uc caeu/ srefc/abrtn pd

d d d6 Akerlf et a supr nte d at 280


29/32

24 U ABORTION PCY 9

gaiig owr of marri wom who ca us thir cotrol ovrfrtlty cisios to xtract cocssios from thir husbas8

hl ach of ths hyothss is xtrmly rovocatv, both mor mirical suort to b ti cig y suggst, howvr, that thr might b htrogty i th wlfarffcts of icras accss to aborto for wom, g uoth charactrstics of th iviual

I. UBLC NNCE FFCS OF ABORON EGAZTN

lthough this articl has alray viw a umbr of tocs thathav sigficat imlicatios for ublic xturs such s hhalth costs associat with tratmt for TDs (which ar boisroortioatly by ublic cliics) a th irct a iirctcosts of crim, thr ar a umbr of othr stuis that hav xam th rlatioshi btw govrmt sig a vriatio aborto accss

O of th most trstg a owrful xamls of ths

stuis is a ar by oatha Grubr, hilli Lvi, a Douglastaigr that xamis th qustio of how much ublc moy ssav wh crta chilr ar ot bor 6 Drawg o th samituitio as th Doohu a Lvitt work o crim, rubr t alsuggst that abort babis ar ot a raom raw from allcoctios6

y xami th margial chil,62 th chil who gos uboras a rsult of aborto galzato rsarchrs hyothsiz

that if thr is ostv slctio wom will irctly or irctlychoos abortio to avo brigig a chil ito a ufavorabl viromt, which mrovs th avrag lvig staars of th chlr who ar bor6 O th othr ha, gatv slctio woul

158 S Oreffe, supa note 15159 For example, in Oreffe' analyi, it not possible to deermine wether a

woan is fertile or not (or, on a related note weter the ople had any ntentionof ain hildren or ariation in te e of birth ontrol wh alo tend to pt the

woman in ontrol of te fertility deision) so e mt rely on age proxe It tenbeoe difflt to eparate bargainng power effets from ohort effet Id salso kerlof et a, supa note Regardin empirial work, te effet i only demonstrated n agregate time erie, wi also limit te ablity to eparate poliy effetfrom other orrelated effets S Orefe, supa note 15

160 Jonathan Grber et a, boo Lgaliaio ad Child Liig Cicumsas Who Is h "Magial Child? 11 Q ON. 6 691 1999

161 d16 Id16 e improement in the aerage does not arise beae the aborted hldren

in any sense wold hae taken reores away from other ildren (togh Grbersreslts do sgest tat born hldren wll hae more resores oer te ore of teir


30/32

78 FORDHAM URBAN LW JO URNL Vol I

imy that rativly wllof mothrs will choos abortio whillowr icom mothrs will b limit i thir accss4 This iscal

costrait ct woul lowr avrag livig staars as th r-sumay wors o chilr wil or i trmiig avrag livig circumstacs wh th chir who woulhav b or to bttr o wom ar xclu rom th calcula-tio bcaus thy ar abort

rsolutio o th qustio o which ty o slctio is tak-ig ac is imortat i th Joyc vrsus ooh -bat iscuss abov I his coclusio oyc suggsts that ayactua chag i slctio iuc by lgliaio s ikly t b gativ sic rvious rsarch suggsts that bttr u-cat highr icom ts a or wom r mor likly tosk a abortio i th vt of a uwat rgacy6 ohu a Lvitt coutr Joyc by focusig oly o th robability ofth occurrc of abortios coitioal o bg rgat7Sic lowr icom lss ucat wom ar mor likly to

vo a uwat rgacy thir absolut robablity of rciv-ig a abortio is highr tha thir highr sciocoomiccoutrarts imlyig that ay slctio ct wll b ositiv.8I som was th Grubrs rsults hav a iirct barig oth abortio a crim bat

lives because the others are aborted since the aborted children would appear to havebee ne drains on societys resources had they lied. Rather the iproeent in

the average occurs siply because the aborted children who would have been bointo the worst living standards are not included in calculating the average. S id

16 Kane & Staiger sura ote 12 7850

165 d16 S Joyce sura note 3; s als Jaet Currie et al. Rstritins n Mdiaid

Funding brin 31 J H ESOURES 159 15988 1995) ve PowellGriner & atherie Trent Sini trinans brtin in th Unitd Stats EMORAY 553 5531 (198 Hotz et al sura note 58

167 S gnral Donohue & eitt Rl t J sura note 105 refuting

Joyces assertion that here is a negatie reationship between abortion and crie.168 Iplicit in this answer to Joyces arguent is the assuption that legaliation

does hae a significant effect on access to abortion If as Joyce clais egal abortionslargely replaced illegal abortions legalization per se will not have an appreciabe selection effect. One possibility that goes unexplored by either Joyce or Donohue andevitt is that while legalization ight not have had an appreciable effect on aggregate abortio rates it ight have changed the x of abortions. at is it coud bethe case that individuals differ in their propensity to seek an abortion based on itslegality with the propensity being correlate with socioeconoic status. Further ifegalized abortion drove illegal abortion proiders out of business this arket shift

could also have iportant effects on propensity that differ according to socioeconoic status.


31/32

00] US ABORION POLI 781

e Gruber resuts umbiguously suort te ositive selectionremise1 Accordig to teir lysis te mrgi cild d e

not been borted would ve bee sixty ercet more likely tove been rised i sigle ret ose y p molikely to ive i overty fortyfive ercet more likely to live i ouseold tt colects wefre d forty ercet more likely todie during te first yer of life 17 In te ggregte tey estimett tis ositive selection effect reduced wefre yments in 198te yer of te dt used i teir lysis by $8 milio17 xtroltig teir results furter tey estimte tt d ll cildren

livig i 198 bee exosed to leglized bortio welfre ymets wod ve bee $11 billio lower i 198

As discussed bove te reserc by Klick d Strtmn onSTDs d Dooue d Levitts work o crime lso suggest significt ublic fice effects e dditiol tretmet exensesborne rimrily by ublic cliics rising from te icrese in STDrtes occsioed by bortio legliztio ccout for betwee $00

million nd $4 bilion ully deedig o ow brodly teirresults c be extrolted 7 Donoue d Levitts reserc suggests n bortiorete svings in decresed crime o te orderof $0 bilion er yer74

Te gretest sortcomig of ec of tese estimtes owever iste filure to rovide corresondig estimte o te oter side ofte blnce seet so to sek As metioed erlier tis is robbly not ossible eiricly i te cse of STDs snce we re lim

ited i our bility to evlute te vlue of te icrese i risky sexto te idividuls wose bevior cges s result of te bortioiduced morl zrd1 For te Gruber stdy owever it

69 Gruer e al upra noe 160 a 289010 Id. a 26 Assumng his las resul is rous we would expec hs o cu

agains Donohue and Lei's crime nding gien ha a large fracion of he "unwaneds apparenl die during her firs ear and hus would no hae grown up oe crminals Id.

11 Id.12 Id. a 289 is ineresing o noe ha hese resuls indirecl refue he hrus

of he poin made in Aerlof e al or a leas sugges ha i is no consequenialempiricall ecause he group of women holding ou agains aorion is relaielsmall impling ha he gains o hose who would consider aorion more han wpeou he losses incurred he hold-ous Id

1 Klic & Sraman upra noe 21, a 4114 Donohue & Le galzd Aborton upra noe 6 a 4141 We migh e ale o ge a allpar esimae using coningen aluaion meh

ods or mare prices for prosiuion e prolems associaed wih he former alu

aion mehod hae een explored n grea deal elsewhere S g. Peer Aiamond & Jerr A Hausman Contngnt aluaton I Som umbr Bttr Than


32/32

782 FORDHAM RBAN LAW JO RNAL Vol I

shoul be ossble to eerme what te foregoe et tax recetswoul have bee for the abore cohort I mght be he case that

these reces woul have bee eglgble, but s a emrcalqueso Alhough a smlar a r the ohe a Levttstuy s less obvous, here s a otetaly mortat caveat to tercrme savgs esmate Because may crmes are ererate ovuas he same cass as · he imil, m f e mereucto coul theory be the resul of fewer vcms exsgbecause of aborto Whle there are goo reasos o assume thatvcms are ghy substtutabe, mlyg tha crme levels are ot

eterme by the umber of targets but rather by he umber ofcrmas t s a oe questo ce suy a ema arejotly eterme hs market

ONLUSON

e legazato of aboro a subsequet chages aborto

avalablty rove umerous aura exermets" for researc-ers to exame morat ssues beavora scece Aleecoometrcas have exote these exermets to geerate averabe cotage ustry of aborto stues, examg everythg from sex o crme ese stues are he source of heaeebates both wh a ouse of he acaemc lerature, a t skely tat research ths area wll co�tue to geerate rovoca-tve resuls Because hs erature s farly techca howeer,

wl be ffcult for ocymakers to raw forme ferecesabout aborto aw It s more lkey that lawmakers wll gravtatetowar the research hat suorts ther reexstg olcy tatves o the subject Such a stuato geerates a secal resosblty for researchers ths area to be esecally crcumsect ofther resuts, a to make as ot to overstae the evece forher hyoteses Otherwse we wl rgty be sut out of he aborto olcy ebae

No Numb? 8 J . ON PERETV 5 (199 e latte metod would likelsuffer from arge data availabilt roblems Even te most comreensive summarof te data available on rices n the prostitution market indicates substantia gaps

econometric analyses of us abortion policy

Documents