econ 338 assignment final

42
1 133.063 2 171.162 3 209.297 4 247.468 5 133.315 et et 6 171.486 -0.01289 -0.02112782 7 209.693 0.020321 0.017475192 8 247.936 0.063435 0.065200221 9 133.567 -0.06276 -0.0508436 10 171.81 -0.02166 -0.03407887 11 210.089 0.018883 0.015063428 12 248.404 0.048927 0.054476585 13 133.819 -0.0474 -0.03808579 14 172.134 -0.01343 -0.02210345 15 210.485 0.020078 0.016940359 16 248.872 0.062677 0.06432669 17 134.071 -0.06233 -0.05074133 18 172.458 -0.02151 -0.03400409 19 210.881 0.018754 0.014725467 20 249.34 0.049297 0.054473039 21 134.323 -0.04816 -0.03901518 22 172.782 -0.01392 -0.02299699 23 211.277 0.019858 0.016451883 24 249.808 0.061982 0.06352691 25 134.575 -0.06193 -0.05064437 26 173.106 -0.02137 -0.03393243 27 211.673 0.018639 0.014417783 28 250.276 0.049644 0.054472653 29 134.827 -0.04886 -0.03986646 30 173.43 -0.01437 -0.02381536 31 212.069 0.01966 0.016005743 32 250.744 0.061346 0.062794644 33 135.079 -0.06156 -0.05055255 34 173.754 -0.02124 -0.03386388 35 212.465 0.018538 0.014137667 36 251.212 0.049967 0.05447492 37 135.331 -0.0495 -0.04064622 38 174.078 -0.01477 -0.02456489 39 212.861 0.019481 0.015598265 40 251.68 0.060763 0.062124183 41 135.583 -0.06121 -0.05046569 42 174.402 -0.02111 -0.03379845 43 213.257 0.018448 0.013882656

Upload: kalana-kariyawasam

Post on 06-Nov-2015

11 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

DESCRIPTION

how to do econometrics stuff

TRANSCRIPT

ARIMA1133.0632171.1623209.297270.36232440374247.4685133.315etetet6171.486-0.01289-0.02112782-0.019357767209.6930.0203210.0174751920.026591018THIS IS HOW THE LAST 4 VALUES WERE GENERATED:8247.9360.0634350.0652002210.071126146197145.4110.79133.567-0.06276-0.0508436-0.05504337198187.0380.910171.81-0.02166-0.03407887-0.01646225199228.7011.111210.0890.0188830.0150634280.017636112200270.41.312248.4040.0489270.0544765850.04757692113133.819-0.0474-0.03808579-0.045385414172.134-0.01343-0.02210345-0.0194238115210.4850.0200780.0169403590.02606886616248.8720.0626770.064326690.07002560117134.071-0.06233-0.05074133-0.0548308418172.458-0.02151-0.03400409-0.0167471319210.8810.0187540.0147254670.01780223620249.340.0492970.0544730390.04829738421134.323-0.04816-0.03901518-0.0459228822172.782-0.01392-0.02299699-0.0194816923211.2770.0198580.0164518830.02558006224249.8080.0619820.063526910.06900645625134.575-0.06193-0.05064437-0.0546395526173.106-0.02137-0.03393243-0.0170143927211.6730.0186390.0144177830.01795128250.2760.0496440.0544726530.0489576529134.827-0.04886-0.03986646-0.0464231830173.43-0.01437-0.02381536-0.0195394831212.0690.019660.0160057430.02512472732250.7440.0613460.0627946440.06806185233135.079-0.06156-0.05055255-0.0544673734173.754-0.02124-0.03386388-0.0172652435212.4650.0185380.0141376670.01808400236251.2120.0499670.054474920.04956259537135.331-0.0495-0.04064622-0.0468889638174.078-0.01477-0.02456489-0.0195969739212.8610.0194810.0155982650.02470049340251.680.0607630.0621241830.06718624341135.583-0.06121-0.05046569-0.054312642174.402-0.02111-0.03379845-0.0175007443213.2570.0184480.0138826560.0182026844252.1480.0502690.0544793940.05011671645135.835-0.05009-0.04136046-0.0473226746174.726-0.01515-0.02525138-0.0196539547213.6530.019320.0152260960.02430516548252.6160.0602290.0615103020.06637449849136.087-0.06089-0.0503836-0.0541736950175.05-0.02099-0.03373608-0.0177218651214.0490.0183690.0136505020.01830834752253.0840.0505510.0544856870.05062415353136.339-0.05063-0.0420147-0.0477265954175.374-0.01549-0.02588015-0.0197102855214.4450.0191750.0148861740.02393670656253.5520.059740.060948220.06562187457136.591-0.06059-0.05030611-0.054049258175.698-0.02087-0.03367673-0.0179295259214.8410.0182990.0134391610.01840220660254.020.0508140.0544934590.05108871161136.843-0.05112-0.042614-0.0481028362176.022-0.0158-0.02645605-0.0197658163215.2370.0190440.0145757020.02359322664254.4880.0592910.0604335570.06492398465137.095-0.06031-0.05023301-0.0539378466176.346-0.02077-0.03362032-0.0181245867215.6330.0182370.0132467720.01848535768254.9560.051060.0545024170.05151389469137.347-0.05157-0.04316296-0.0484533570176.67-0.01608-0.02698355-0.0198204271216.0290.0189250.0142921270.02327297572255.4240.058880.0599623060.06427677373137.599-0.06005-0.05016412-0.0538384174176.994-0.02066-0.03356679-0.0183078375216.4250.0181820.0130716370.01855880576255.8920.0512890.0545123040.05190292377137.851-0.05199-0.04366583-0.0487799778177.318-0.01634-0.0274667-0.01987479216.8210.0188180.0140331160.02297432480256.360.0585030.0595308010.06367648881138.103-0.0598-0.05009924-0.0537498182177.642-0.02057-0.03351605-0.0184800283217.2170.0181340.0129122130.01862346684256.8280.0515020.0545229010.05225876385138.355-0.05237-0.04412649-0.0490843786177.966-0.01658-0.02790925-0.0199264887217.6130.0187220.013796540.02269576688257.2960.0581570.0591356830.0631196689138.607-0.05958-0.0500382-0.0536710690178.29-0.02048-0.03346801-0.0186418491218.0090.0180920.0127670930.0186801892257.7640.0517010.0545340170.0525841493138.859-0.05272-0.04454848-0.0493681294178.614-0.0168-0.02831462-0.0199777995218.4050.0186350.0135804530.02243589996258.2320.057840.0587738790.06260307797139.111-0.05936-0.04998079-0.0536012398178.938-0.02039-0.03342258-0.0187939699218.8010.0180540.0126349960.018729712100258.70.0518860.0545454890.052881561101139.363-0.05304-0.04493505-0.04963266102179.262-0.017-0.02868593-0.02002786103219.1970.0185560.013383080.022193423104259.1680.0575490.0584425740.062123771105139.615-0.05917-0.04992685-0.05353949106179.586-0.02031-0.03337965-0.01893697107219.5930.0180210.0125147560.01877276108259.6360.0520580.0545571780.053153331109139.867-0.05333-0.04528918-0.04987935110179.91-0.01718-0.02902604-0.02007666111219.9890.0184850.0132027980.021967132112260.1040.0572830.0581391950.061678996113140.119-0.05899-0.0498762-0.05348507114180.234-0.02023-0.03333913-0.01907144115220.3850.0179920.0124053110.018809962116260.5720.0522180.0545689650.053401569117140.371-0.0536-0.0456136-0.05010943118180.558-0.01734-0.0293376-0.02012414119220.7810.0184210.0130381260.021755904120261.040.0570380.0578613830.061266209121140.623-0.05882-0.04982866-0.05343728122180.882-0.02016-0.03330091-0.0191979123221.1770.0179670.0123056940.018841899124261.5080.0523670.0545807520.053628225125140.875-0.05385-0.0459108-0.05032405126181.206-0.0175-0.02962299-0.02017029127221.5730.0183630.012887710.021558699128261.9760.0568140.0576069810.06088306129141.127-0.05866-0.04978407-0.05339549130181.53-0.02009-0.0332649-0.01931686131221.9690.0179450.0122150240.0188691132262.4440.0525060.0545924530.05383509133141.379-0.05408-0.04618308-0.0505243134181.854-0.01764-0.02988442-0.02021509135222.3650.018310.0127503170.021374551136262.9120.0566080.0573740110.060527372137141.631-0.05851-0.04974227-0.05335911138182.178-0.02003-0.033231-0.01942878139222.7610.0179250.0121324990.018892047140263.380.0526350.0546040010.05402381141141.883-0.05429-0.04643252-0.05071118142182.502-0.01776-0.0301239-0.02025853143223.1570.0182630.0126248160.021202561144263.8480.0564190.0571606660.060197133145142.135-0.05838-0.04970311-0.05332761146182.826-0.01997-0.0331991-0.01953408147223.5530.0179080.012057390.018911179148264.3160.0527550.0546153370.054195899149142.387-0.05448-0.04666104-0.0508856150183.15-0.01788-0.03034328-0.0203006151223.9490.018220.0125101790.021041897152264.7840.0562450.056965290.059890479153142.639-0.05825-0.04966643-0.0533005154183.474-0.01992-0.0331691-0.01963318155224.3450.0178930.0119890310.018926895156265.2520.0528660.0546264150.054352748157142.891-0.05465-0.04687041-0.05104843158183.798-0.01799-0.03054425-0.02034132159224.7410.0181810.0124054630.020891781160265.720.0560860.0567863670.059605685161143.143-0.05813-0.0496321-0.05327736162184.122-0.01987-0.03314092-0.0197264163225.1370.017880.0119268180.01893956164266.1880.0529690.0546371980.054495634165143.395-0.05482-0.04706222-0.05120048166184.446-0.01808-0.03072835-0.02038068167225.5330.0181460.0123098090.020751495168266.6560.055940.0566225090.059341155169143.647-0.05802-0.04959999-0.05325777170184.77-0.01982-0.03311446-0.01981428171225.9290.0178690.0118701980.018949502172267.1240.0530650.0546476570.054625731173143.899-0.05496-0.04723796-0.05134247174185.094-0.01817-0.03089701-0.02041871175226.3250.0181140.0122224320.02062037176267.5920.0558050.0564724450.059095412177144.151-0.05792-0.04956995-0.05324137178185.418-0.01977-0.03308964-0.01989696179226.7210.0178590.011818670.018957022180268.060.0531540.054657770.054744117181144.403-0.0551-0.04739897-0.05147511182185.742-0.01826-0.03105152-0.02045541183227.1170.0180860.0121426150.020497782184268.5280.0556820.0563350120.058867088185144.655-0.05783-0.04954188-0.05322784186186.066-0.01973-0.03306635-0.01997483187227.5130.017850.0117717780.018962391188268.9960.0532370.0546675210.054851783189144.907-0.05523-0.04754649-0.05159903190186.39-0.01833-0.03119307-0.02049082191227.9090.018060.0120697040.020383153192269.4640.0555690.0562091460.058654917193145.159-0.05774-0.04951564-0.05321685194186.714-0.01969-0.03304452-0.02004816195228.3050.0178430.0117291040.018965856196269.9320.0533140.0546768990.054949637197145.411000198187.038000ARIMA 1 predARIMA 1 error199228.701000etet^2200270.4000196269.8786841980.053315802197145.466339918-0.0553399180.0030625065198187.00181405250.03618594750.0013094228199228.66481451340.03618548660.0013093894200270.36232440370.03767559630.0014194506

SSE:0.0071007693

ARIMA 2 predARIMA 2 erroretet^2AR1-0.3616196269.87732600280.0546739972MA10.6725197145.4586753852-0.04767538520.0022729424MA20.3188198187.02218349740.01581650260.0002501618SMA4-0.9605199228.65803632380.04296367620.0018458775200270.35577524060.04422475940.0019558293

SSE:0.0063248109

ARIMA 3 predARIMA 3 erroretet^2196269.87704918630.0549508137197145.4627225604-0.05172256040.0026752233198187.02374682090.01425317910.0002031531199228.65042803130.05057196870.002557524200270.34863338740.05136661260.0026385289

SSE:0.0080744293

Holt Winter'stYtStbtctY^talphabetagammam11These values are optimal!1These values are also the initial values1133.0631304010.20.50.802171.162170.232440.11621.004368616103209.297210.1382840.011040.996797232804247.468249.61305639.7429080.993125180105133.315258.147771224.13881160.613143214506171.486259.977286648912.98416352450.728569052907209.693260.44251128976.72469408260.843472418608247.936263.66422723714.9732050150.950903045409133.567258.4779073641-0.1065574290.5360241284010171.81253.8607631449-2.36185082410.6871444685011210.089251.0143924217-2.60411077360.838262465012248.404250.9741406536-1.32218127090.9819880817013133.819249.6517825534-1.32226968550.5360229134014172.134248.7648649498-1.10459364460.6909925974015210.485248.347571672-0.76094346120.8456861008016248.872248.7566794612-0.1759178360.9967684865017134.071248.8889633493-0.02181697390.5381469538018172.458249.00973664740.04947816210.6922587818019210.881249.11954068440.07964109950.8463414231020249.34249.38901698610.17455870060.9991964587021134.323249.57142557770.17848364610.5382011189022172.782249.71825403610.16265605230.6919779715023211.277249.83186012910.13813107260.845809699024249.808249.97777145730.14202120040.9992959748025134.575250.10502038810.13463506560.5380993958026173.106250.22395288430.12678378090.6918390133027211.673250.33274651520.11778870590.8456151899028250.276250.45089312850.11796765960.9993005445029134.827250.56739169120.11723311120.5380893001030173.43250.68364091140.11674116570.6918303242031212.069250.79763550170.1153678780.8455855559032250.744250.91430410920.11601824280.9993171216033135.079251.03116591040.11644002190.5380950863034173.754251.14832008830.11679709990.6918366194035212.465251.2648442890.11666065030.8455826171036251.212251.38193684760.11687660450.9993226159037135.331251.49908265490.11701120590.5380969294038174.078251.61631710260.11712282680.6918385836039212.861251.73334036830.11707304620.8455815469040251.68251.85045065220.11709166510.9993230887041135.583251.96755687960.11709894620.5380970289042174.402252.08468726620.11711466640.6918388597043213.257252.20175703960.11709221990.8455810652044252.148252.31883889780.11708703910.9993229574045135.835252.43591786050.11708300090.5380969738046174.726252.55300660190.11708587120.6918389101047213.653252.67008160640.11708043780.8455809489048252.616252.78715917120.11707900130.999322921049136.087252.90423623260.11707803130.5380969606050175.05253.02131707230.11707943550.6918389346051214.049253.13839520470.1170787840.8455809349052253.084253.2554739830.11707878110.9993229209053136.339253.37255256440.11707868130.5380969592054175.374253.48963227930.11707919810.6918389437055214.445253.60671143170.11707917520.8455809344056253.552253.72379069880.11707922120.9993229221057136.591253.84086983410.11707917820.5380969586058175.698253.95794924890.11707929650.6918389457059214.841254.07502853270.11707929020.8455809343060254.02254.19210783020.11707929380.9993229222061136.843254.30918706970.11707926660.5380969583062176.022254.42626637410.11707928560.6918389461063215.237254.54334564970.11707928050.8455809342064254.488254.66042492880.11707927980.9993229222065137.095254.77750418950.11707927030.5380969581066176.346254.89458346620.11707927350.6918389461067215.633255.01166273750.11707927240.8455809342068254.956255.12874201080.11707927290.9993229222069137.347255.24582127920.11707927060.5380969581070176.67255.36290055160.11707927150.6918389461071216.029255.4799798230.11707927150.8455809342072255.424255.59705909530.11707927190.9993229222073137.599255.71413836630.11707927140.5380969581074176.994255.83121763820.11707927170.6918389461075216.425255.94829690990.11707927170.8455809342076255.892256.06537618190.11707927180.9993229222077137.851256.18245545350.11707927170.5380969581078177.318256.29953472540.11707927180.6918389461079216.821256.41661399710.11707927180.8455809342080256.36256.5336932690.11707927180.9993229222081138.103256.65077254070.11707927180.5380969581082177.642256.76785181250.11707927180.6918389461083217.217256.88493108430.11707927180.8455809342084256.828257.0020103560.11707927180.9993229222085138.355257.11908962780.11707927180.5380969581086177.966257.23616889960.11707927180.6918389461087217.613257.35324817140.11707927180.8455809342088257.296257.47032744310.11707927180.9993229222089138.607257.58740671490.11707927180.5380969581090178.29257.70448598670.11707927180.6918389461091218.009257.82156525850.11707927180.8455809342092257.764257.93864453020.11707927180.9993229222093138.859258.0557238020.11707927180.5380969581094178.614258.17280307380.11707927180.6918389461095218.405258.28988234560.11707927180.8455809342096258.232258.40696161730.11707927180.9993229222097139.111258.52404088910.11707927180.5380969581098178.938258.64112016090.11707927180.6918389461099218.801258.75819943270.11707927180.84558093420100258.7258.87527870450.11707927180.99932292220101139.363258.99235797620.11707927180.53809695810102179.262259.1094372480.11707927180.69183894610103219.197259.22651651980.11707927180.84558093420104259.168259.34359579160.11707927180.99932292220105139.615259.46067506330.11707927180.53809695810106179.586259.57775433510.11707927180.69183894610107219.593259.69483360690.11707927180.84558093420108259.636259.81191287870.11707927180.99932292220109139.867259.92899215040.11707927180.53809695810110179.91260.04607142220.11707927180.69183894610111219.989260.1631506940.11707927180.84558093420112260.104260.28022996580.11707927180.99932292220113140.119260.39730923750.11707927180.53809695810114180.234260.51438850930.11707927180.69183894610115220.385260.63146778110.11707927180.84558093420116260.572260.74854705290.11707927180.99932292220117140.371260.86562632460.11707927180.53809695810118180.558260.98270559640.11707927180.69183894610119220.781261.09978486820.11707927180.84558093420120261.04261.216864140.11707927180.99932292220121140.623261.33394341170.11707927180.53809695810122180.882261.45102268350.11707927180.69183894610123221.177261.56810195530.11707927180.84558093420124261.508261.68518122710.11707927180.99932292220125140.875261.80226049880.11707927180.53809695810126181.206261.91933977060.11707927180.69183894610127221.573262.03641904240.11707927180.84558093420128261.976262.15349831420.11707927180.99932292220129141.127262.2705775860.11707927180.53809695810130181.53262.38765685770.11707927180.69183894610131221.969262.50473612950.11707927180.84558093420132262.444262.62181540130.11707927180.99932292220133141.379262.73889467310.11707927180.53809695810134181.854262.85597394480.11707927180.69183894610135222.365262.97305321660.11707927180.84558093420136262.912263.09013248840.11707927180.99932292220137141.631263.20721176020.11707927180.53809695810138182.178263.32429103190.11707927180.69183894610139222.761263.44137030370.11707927180.84558093420140263.38263.55844957550.11707927180.99932292220141141.883263.67552884730.11707927180.53809695810142182.502263.7926081190.11707927180.69183894610143223.157263.90968739080.11707927180.84558093420144263.848264.02676666260.11707927180.99932292220145142.135264.14384593440.11707927180.53809695810146182.826264.26092520610.11707927180.69183894610147223.553264.37800447790.11707927180.84558093420148264.316264.49508374970.11707927180.99932292220149142.387264.61216302150.11707927180.53809695810150183.15264.72924229320.11707927180.69183894610151223.949264.8463215650.11707927180.84558093420152264.784264.96340083680.11707927180.99932292220153142.639265.08048010860.11707927180.53809695810154183.474265.19755938040.11707927180.69183894610155224.345265.31463865210.11707927180.84558093420156265.252265.43171792390.11707927180.99932292220157142.891265.54879719570.11707927180.53809695810158183.798265.66587646750.11707927180.69183894610159224.741265.78295573920.11707927180.84558093420160265.72265.9000350110.11707927180.99932292220161143.143266.01711428280.11707927180.53809695810162184.122266.13419355460.11707927180.69183894610163225.137266.25127282630.11707927180.84558093420164266.188266.36835209810.11707927180.99932292220165143.395266.48543136990.11707927180.53809695810166184.446266.60251064170.11707927180.69183894610167225.533266.71958991340.11707927180.84558093420168266.656266.83666918520.11707927180.99932292220169143.647266.9537484570.11707927180.53809695810170184.77267.07082772880.11707927180.69183894610171225.929267.18790700050.11707927180.84558093420172267.124267.30498627230.11707927180.99932292220173143.899267.42206554410.11707927180.53809695810174185.094267.53914481590.11707927180.69183894610175226.325267.65622408760.11707927180.84558093420176267.592267.77330335940.11707927180.99932292220177144.151267.89038263120.11707927180.53809695810178185.418268.0074619030.11707927180.69183894610179226.721268.12454117470.11707927180.84558093420180268.06268.24162044650.11707927180.99932292220181144.403268.35869971830.11707927180.53809695810182185.742268.47577899010.11707927180.69183894610183227.117268.59285826190.11707927180.84558093420184268.528268.70993753360.11707927180.99932292220185144.655268.82701680540.11707927180.53809695810186186.066268.94409607720.11707927180.69183894610187227.513269.0611753490.11707927180.84558093420188268.996269.17825462070.11707927180.99932292220189144.907269.29533389250.11707927180.53809695810190186.39269.41241316430.11707927180.69183894610191227.909269.52949243610.11707927180.84558093420192269.464269.64657170780.11707927180.99932292220193145.159269.76365097960.11707927180.53809695810194186.714269.88073025140.11707927180.69183894610195228.305269.99780952320.11707927180.84558093420196269.932270.11488879490.11707927180.99932292220197145.411270.23196806670.11707927180.5380969581145.4111198187.038270.34904733850.11707927180.6918389461187.0382199228.701270.46612661030.11707927180.8455809342228.7013200270.4270.5832058820.11707927180.9993229222270.44YSbcYtY^tetet^2145.411145.41100187.038187.03800228.701228.70100270.4270.400

SSESOLVER DID NOT CHANGE THE VALUES0

SSE BEFORE SOLVER:0

Holt's LinearThese are the optimal values from solver:The initial values were

tYtStbtalphabetaalphabeta1133.063130400.00436930870.93955516280.20.52171.162170.005077136740.004770253209.297210.006732736540.00184386434247.468249.997476037239.99141427255133.315289.304333712739.34823558756171.486327.965860036638.70303435367209.693365.983018244138.05861587958247.936403.359560413337.41777000369133.567439.435033637636.156608134610171.81474.264325992234.909521740911210.089507.867053696333.681716656912248.404540.267930348332.478296817613133.819570.828418599530.676409877814172.134599.628774767228.913753928815210.485626.715906285327.197541412416248.872652.143696563525.534762597417134.071675.303270342723.303141680718172.458696.307507172421.143193759219210.881715.237341513919.063620491220249.34732.182017839217.072755560421134.323746.567946632514.548333599822172.782758.545666124312.133099843123211.277768.23456694679.836640034324249.808775.7630619387.668010442625134.575780.59601987775.004322226826173.106782.92416522722.489906425227211.673782.90721977810.134580804328250.276780.7139823178-2.052532864229134.827775.8483379716-4.695606280630173.43768.5410965401-7.1493815731212.069758.9915544349-9.404464792432250.744747.407490175-11.452318724933135.079733.3297579474-13.919039535934173.754717.0265757471-16.159073085135212.465698.7335213424-18.164066251236251.212678.6934598135-19.926667299837135.331656.4797399348-22.075479357838174.078632.3929530271-23.965213750339212.861606.6993860688-25.5890969340251.68579.6709064998-26.941476319741135.583550.9067886403-28.653948588442174.402520.732972339-30.081948144843213.257489.439004062-31.220707917344252.148457.3179114003-32.066669052445135.835423.9866934331-33.25478251446174.726389.7881144063-34.141531400247213.653355.0261692041-34.72444439148252.616320.0059849846-35.002308273749136.087284.353013775-35.613641994350175.05248.4174001651-35.91615208851214.049212.508010683-35.909798246752253.084176.9324024559-35.595808288553136.339141.3147581355-35.616324444954175.374106.0028677509-35.330291851955214.44571.300762007-34.740076350956253.55237.5087877007-33.849282180157136.5914.2403242602-33.303570934658175.698-28.1685815713-32.462983718159214.841-59.4279406045-31.332111931360254.02-89.2536020416-29.91671859261136.843-118.0517193962-28.865731024362176.022-145.5064282599-27.539997868563215.237-171.3498959641-25.946014193864254.488-195.3219267742-24.091347914465137.095-217.855579971-22.627807800466176.346-238.6621314877-20.916637056367215.633-257.5024216141-18.965794578668254.956-274.1462597245-16.784188391169137.347-289.0591717217-15.026020994370176.67-301.9846248545-13.052421615271216.029-312.7166549556-10.872285788472255.424-321.0590544461-8.495318055973137.599-327.5132351924-6.577556958774176.994-331.8577049059-4.479448308575216.425-333.9219647116-2.210245481676255.892-333.54547364210.220136199877137.851-331.26662255682.154412399278177.318-326.89946021824.233413028779216.821-320.30886172336.448118803180256.36-311.3692724498.788992747281138.103-300.654798399710.598088645582177.642-288.013189697812.518088464883217.217-273.342289946714.540773423384256.828-256.548571974316.657539105985138.355-238.238359174218.210317207786177.966-218.289083123619.844164966487217.613-196.627032662421.552168668488257.296-173.185702202423.32714038389138.607-148.598166721324.511351104690178.29-122.765637955825.752670396891218.009-95.636539325327.0459006592257.764-67.164694502928.385653859193138.859-38.002885201729.114894711994178.614-8.068736405529.884629116495218.40522.674851214130.691668012696258.23254.261639760731.532683131797139.11186.027279915331.751559105298178.938118.046062276632.002630095199218.801150.349092429832.2848725206100258.7182.966320941532.597139308101139.363215.230516913232.2843206774102179.262247.216619871332.0041286796103219.197278.958486262231.7577187923104259.168310.49097503231.5461027618105139.615341.152633241830.7151183168106179.586371.027613222429.9257620056107219.593400.160955756929.1812402004108259.636428.600697193528.4845612086109139.867455.699233895727.1823147279110179.91481.557772390725.9385539338111219.989506.240118053124.7582769669112260.104529.814773774323.6461995148113140.119551.654954595921.9493453275114180.234571.88554363720.334478985115220.385590.595360610818.8080194046116260.572607.879228020717.3759945291117140.371623.136613682215.3854446296118180.558636.521071952813.5054075654119220.781648.150973496411.7432661997120261.04658.151522383810.1058871517121140.623665.95201190267.9398389034122180.882671.73773855985.9159316213123221.177675.65918268024.0420005926124261.508677.87396814552.3252311862125140.875677.84272539820.111193936126181.206675.7834743126-1.9280588896127221.573671.879253916-3.784771636128261.976666.3200252491-5.4519719005129141.127658.5971442258-7.5856162911130181.53648.9602181952-9.5129349473131221.969637.6231917394-11.2267695415132262.444624.8062017016-12.7208694188133141.379610.0286709949-14.6532161499134181.854593.5686519415-16.3508071461135222.365575.667383162-17.8075513784136262.912556.5711136467-19.0183731573137141.631535.8228361715-20.6437136904138182.178513.7241377689-22.0107520885139222.761490.5382496731-23.1148571911140263.38466.5318639056-23.9524974679141141.883441.2655311781-25.1869181691142182.502415.0580446742-26.1457984171143223.157388.1880104123-26.8262579442144263.848360.935684778-27.2265720421145142.135332.8720662922-28.0130233497146182.826304.3258429024-28.5139942002147223.553275.5835136582-28.7285275696148264.316246.9312786491-28.6568465005149142.387217.9428565287-28.968380086150183.15188.9490275069-28.992290765151223.949160.2363386964-28.729589305152264.784132.0890788463-28.1824586593153142.639104.0758539123-28.0234542389154183.47476.5217578097-27.5824663788155224.34549.7056931251-26.8623897103156265.25223.9024618495-25.8672519347157142.891-1.3318704168-25.2725889926158183.798-25.6851461062-24.4088434324159224.741-48.8931506189-23.2805890257160265.72-70.6973775776-21.8934654234161143.143-91.5608490623-20.9257293007162184.122-111.1906039116-19.708089814163225.137-129.3430638601-18.2464897425164266.188-145.7816317246-16.547847408165143.395-160.9936744963-15.2927852655166184.446-174.7103082755-13.8119039992167225.533-186.7130772202-12.1121218185168266.656-196.7913679712-10.2012253388169143.647-205.4605406731-8.7617773741170184.77-212.478997428-7.1238314859171225.929-217.6561628034-5.2948312916172267.124-220.809705144-3.2829722026173143.899-222.4848080975-1.7722903485174185.094-222.4685171171-0.0918195269175226.325-220.59901802281.7509475095176267.592-216.72266366573.7478844862177144.151-211.4143863945.2139595838178185.418-204.48932499846.8216341252179226.721-195.81340566048.5638373701180268.06-185.260180217810.4329772045181144.403-173.432387699811.7434831335182185.742-160.170871681213.1697587679183227.117-145.366475375814.7055909056184268.528-128.916704991516.3443437396185144.655-111.448455496217.4003151948186186.066-92.824235142218.5502416059187227.513-72.955392990219.7891395566188268.996-51.758627086621.1116821583189144.907-29.879895543821.8323673676190186.39-7.197970586522.6305735871191227.90916.360977977423.5028330895192269.46440.867005177324.4453892952193145.15965.661268943224.7731761054194186.71490.855120148825.1684235676195228.305116.514136063825.6293621404196269.932142.701845620926.1539603384Y^tmetet^2197145.411168.753368363926.0577145668168.85580595931-23.4448059593549.6589264711198187.038194.777119931626.0258044556195.00976629782-7.971766297863.5490579064199228.701220.83743351826.0582276876221.163726636237.537273363856.8104897605200270.4246.998358918326.1547178538247.3176869746423.0823130254532.7931746003

SSE 1202.8116487382

SSE BEFORE SOLVER:8684.59002

Single Exponential Smoothingoptimal valueinitial valueY^t=SttYtS1alphaetet^2alpha1133.0631300.04281666163.0639.3819690.22171.162131.762419426739.39958057331552.32694934983209.297135.082191329174.21480867095507.8378260584247.468139.8941764729107.573823527111572.12750823395133.315139.6124781-6.297478139.65823041966171.486140.977195902730.5088040973930.78712744937209.693143.919377236565.77362276354326.16945143128247.936148.373021779199.56297822099912.78663221689133.567147.7390773542-14.1720773542200.847776534410171.81148.769713904723.0402860953530.854783353411210.089151.395201029958.69379897013444.962037542912248.404155.548793952292.85520604788622.089290176713133.819154.6183967169-20.7993967169432.614903786814172.134155.368356376216.7656436238281.086806119715210.485157.728267057452.75673294262783.272870777416248.872161.630737432187.24126256797611.037894445917134.071160.4507214794-26.3797214794695.889705328318172.458160.964833061111.4931669389132.092886285919210.881163.102076691647.77892330842282.825512506720249.34166.794496675182.54550332496813.760119161421134.323165.4041755888-31.0811755888966.039475980422172.782165.72006940037.061930599749.870863795223211.277167.670665083543.60633491651901.512444852924249.808171.187511561278.62048843886181.181202355325134.575169.6198860416-35.04488604161228.144037670626173.106169.76914980343.336850196611.134569234227211.673171.56333277940.1096672211608.785404576828250.276174.933546418875.34245358125676.485311636429134.827173.2163179909-38.38931799091473.739735809230173.43173.22546714120.20453285880.041833690331212.069174.888617544837.18038245521382.380839513532250.744178.136491789572.60750821055271.850248533133135.079176.2929137322-41.21391373221698.58668512534173.754176.184205922-2.4302059225.905900823235212.465177.737628406334.72737159371205.990337806236251.212180.883555714670.32844428544946.090075606437135.331178.9331473494-43.60214734941901.147253477438174.078178.7252661481-4.647266148121.597082651139212.861180.186844314532.67415568551067.600449760340251.68183.247942571668.43205742844682.946483885741135.583181.2070888531-45.62408885312081.557483671842174.402180.9157176662-6.513717666242.428517834443213.257182.300463409130.9565365909958.307157704644252.148185.291101750266.85689824984469.844843584145135.835183.1735565752-47.33855657522240.938938620146174.726182.8118604035-8.085860403565.381138465547213.653184.132375042529.5206249575871.467297883848252.616187.064615240665.55138475944296.984043868449136.087184.8819239373-48.79492393732380.944602047250175.05184.4609537767-9.410953776788.566050987951214.049185.727815140728.3211848593802.089511835552253.084188.611782117764.47221788234156.666878667853136.339186.3736360924-50.03463609242503.464808895354175.374185.9026683956-10.5286683956110.852858183555214.445187.124755750527.3202442495746.39574585356253.552189.968948591763.58305140834042.804426392657136.591187.6834830274-51.09248302742610.441821905658175.698187.1703046559-11.4723046559131.613774118759214.841188.35507145626.485928544701.504410836160254.02191.166624483662.85337551643950.546813805961136.843188.8406682346-51.99766823462703.757501838262176.022188.2918156541-12.2698156541150.548376184563215.237189.445518495225.7914815048665.200518211464254.488192.230420418562.25757958153876.006215345165137.095189.8697057777-52.77470577772785.169569919766176.346189.2906658432-12.9446658432167.564373791367215.633190.418556651825.2144433482635.768153361468254.956193.181834527261.77416547283816.047519862269137.347190.7911733091-53.44417330912856.279660693570176.67190.1865518095-13.5165518095182.697172817971216.029191.293039169824.7359608302611.867758194372255.424194.038912820861.38508717923768.128928002473137.599191.6223441701-54.02334417012918.521715322474176.994190.9960073073-14.0020073073196.056208634275216.425192.084791883524.3402081165592.445731155876255.892194.816803524161.07519647593730.179624574577137.851192.3777179891-54.52671798912973.162974663178177.318191.7329111395-14.4149111395207.789663158579216.821192.807099351624.0139006484576.667424352280256.36195.528222395460.83177760473700.505166541781138.103193.069466078-54.9664660783021.312393106682177.642192.4089134829-14.7669134829218.06173381183217.217193.471112929423.7458870706563.867152769384256.828196.183843326160.64415667393677.71373868485138.355193.707805308-55.3528053083063.933055463786177.966193.0337937564-15.0677937564227.038408685387217.613194.086193313723.5268066863553.510632855188257.296196.792626219460.50337378063660.658238838789138.607194.3013119488-55.69431194883101.856383449890178.29193.6157610226-15.3257610226234.878950920491218.009194.660198082323.3488019177545.166550990492257.764197.362092217760.40190778233648.39046374193138.859194.8571851129-55.99818511293135.796735938194178.614194.1617061518-15.5477061518241.73116658495218.405195.199723061823.2052769382538.484877780796258.232197.898554736360.33344526373640.124617390297139.111195.3814678961-56.27046789613166.365557241998178.938194.6774134948-15.7394134948247.729137161899218.801195.71030493623.090695064533.1801985405100258.7198.407313396860.29268660323635.2080578334101139.363195.8792330079-56.51623300793194.0845934006102179.262195.1677385647-15.9057385647252.9925192874103219.197196.196591321223.0004086788529.0187993929104259.168198.8928168260.275183183633.0977073786105139.615196.3547385941-56.73973859413219.3979357219106179.586195.6367571874-16.0507571874257.6268062896107219.593196.662483530322.9305164697525.8085855686108259.636199.358799277760.27720072233633.3409269167109139.867196.8115590372-56.94455903723242.6828039449110179.91196.0878907026-16.1778907026261.724147586111219.989197.111256412422.8777435876523.3911516597112260.104199.808395400860.29560459923635.5599339791113140.119197.252694754-57.1336947543264.2590762456114180.234196.5240110591-16.2900110591265.3644603043115220.385197.545658949122.8393410509521.6354996387116260.572200.244236468860.32776353123639.4390526812117140.371197.6806643611-57.30966436113284.3976291872118180.558196.9475290347-16.3895290347268.6166619791119220.781197.967998696922.8130013031520.4330284554120261.04200.668531236160.37146876393644.7142407091121140.623198.0975820417-57.47458204173303.3275808728122180.882197.3604682904-16.4784682904271.5399171976123221.177198.380212670222.7967873298519.6935125592124261.508201.083133780960.42486621913651.1644576003125140.875198.5052224884-57.63022248843321.242544057126181.206197.7645275323-16.5585275323274.1848340381127221.573198.783926842322.7890731577519.3418553872128261.976201.489600457560.48639954253658.604529617129141.127198.9050754175-57.77807541753338.3059989551130181.53198.1611326923-16.6311326923276.5945746286131221.969199.180506091422.7884939086519.3154546246132262.444201.889237704760.55476229533666.8792366445133141.379199.2983913307-57.91939133073354.6558921147134181.854198.5514807294-16.6974807294278.8058627092135222.365199.571096126722.7939038733519.5620537872136262.912202.283142176260.62885782383675.8584010139137141.631199.6862199265-58.05521992653370.4085607134138182.178198.9365763979-16.7585763979280.8498828827139222.761199.956658682222.8043413178520.0379829402140263.38202.672234427960.70776557213685.4328007549141141.883200.0694423456-58.18644234563385.6620728398142182.502199.3172631107-16.8152631107282.7530734819143223.157200.338001058822.8189989412520.7067126764144263.848203.057287194760.79071280533695.5107633725145142.135200.4487982371-58.31379823713400.4990648411146182.826199.6942488477-16.8682488477284.5378191891147223.553200.715800923222.8371990769521.5376616757148264.316203.438949127760.87705087233706.0153229054149142.387200.824908479-58.4379084793414.9891474016150183.15200.068127903-16.918127903286.223051743151223.949201.090627123422.8583728766522.5052105638152264.784203.817764719160.96623528093716.8818443292153142.639201.1982942501-58.55929425013429.1909430692154183.474200.4393991403-16.9653991403287.824767988155224.345201.462957163722.8820428363523.5878843605156265.252204.194191027761.05780897233728.0560365019157142.891201.5693930395-58.67839303953443.1538097019158183.798200.8084813168-17.0104813168289.3564746278159224.741201.833191871622.9078081284524.7676732482160265.72204.568611718961.15138828113739.4922886998161143.143201.9385720855-58.79557208553456.919296861162184.122201.1757259468-17.0537259468290.8295686685163225.137202.201667710622.9353322894526.0294672264164266.188204.941348850361.24665114973751.1522770575165143.395202.3061396559-58.91113965593470.5223755585166184.446201.5414280993-17.0954280993292.253661898167225.533202.568667115822.9643328842527.3605848186168266.656205.312672763761.34332723633763.0037964152169143.647202.6723545178-59.02535451783483.9924759468170184.77201.9058354617-17.1358354617293.6368569697171225.929202.934427169422.9945728306528.7503796611172267.124205.682810390661.44118960943775.0197806196173143.899203.0374338858-59.13843388583497.3543624666174185.094202.2691559483-17.1751559483294.9859818495175226.325203.299146883723.0258531163530.1899117319176267.592206.05195222261.5400477783787.1774805241177144.151203.401560095-59.2505600953510.6288715734178185.418202.6315640872-17.2135640872296.3067885847179226.721203.66299331423.058006686531.6716723331180268.06206.420258160361.63974183973799.4577740592181144.403203.7648862014-59.36188620143523.8335333878182185.742202.993206381-17.251206381297.6041216183227.117204.0261066923.09089331533.189353852184268.528206.787862431561.74013756853811.8445869766185144.655204.1275406836-59.47254068363536.9830953618186186.066203.3542058073-17.2882058073298.8820600361187227.513204.388604724123.1243952759534.7376568774188268.996207.154877707561.84112229253824.3244063938189144.907204.4896313894-59.58263138943550.089963291190186.39203.7146655963-17.3246655963300.1440380238191227.909204.750586226323.1584137737536.3121285162192269.464207.521398567861.94260143223836.8858721827193145.159204.8512488488-59.69224884893563.164572633194186.714204.0746724017-17.3606724017301.3929462383195228.305205.112134140123.1928658599537.9090267973196269.932207.887504404662.04449559543849.5194336866197145.411207.8875044046-62.47650440463903.313602619198187.038207.8875044046-20.8495044046434.7018339178199228.701207.887504404620.8134955954433.2015988994200270.4207.887504404662.51249559543907.8121055639LAST 4 SSE8679.0291410001Before Solver9147.08383

Best SSESSERankHolt-Winter's01