ecological indicators: software development sergei rodionov joint institute for the study of the...
TRANSCRIPT
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Ecological Indicators: Software Development
Sergei RodionovJoint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington
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Outline
Part I. Red noise problem. Upgrade to the regime shift detection method (STARS).
Part II. Knowledge management system for the Bering Sea.
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0 10 20 30 40
-2
0
2
-4
-2
0
2
4
a)
b)
R egim e 1
Regim e 2
AR (1) = 0.8
True and spurious regime shifts
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Entry Form for STARS
www.BeringClimate.noaa.gov
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Estimates of AR1 for PDO
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80S u b sam p le s ize .
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
AR
1 co
effi
cien
t
M PK
IP4
O LS
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1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
-1
0
1
-2
-1
0
1
2
-2
-1
0
1
2
a) PDO
b) A fter P rewhitening
c) R esiduals
1948 19761999
1948
PDO Index Before and After Prewhitening
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Part II. Dealing with Information Overload
Dimensionality reduction (e.g., principal component analysis, singular value decomposition, multidimensional scaling)
Knowledge management system
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Components of the KMS
Data Explorer Rule Explorer Inference Engine Graphical Interface Search Facility Reporting Facility
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Data Explorer
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List of rules (partial) with the IF variables that affect walleye pollock recruitment
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Part of the influence diagram for walleye pollock recruitment
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Rule Explorer
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Rule Edit Form
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Example of a rule
IF ENSO event = El Niño,AND Aleutian low circulation type = W1,THEN SAT at St. Paul = above normal; CF = 10.
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Running the project to find the value of the target variable
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Questions about the variable in the terminal nodes
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Search Form
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Confidence Factors
CF = (P(C | e) − P(¬C | e)) * 100%,
CF = Degree of Belief – Degree of Disbelief
CFcomb = CFold + CFnew − (CFold * CFnew)/100.
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Custom Property Window
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Report documenting the inference process
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“A spoon is valuable at the lunch time.”
Russian proverb