Ecological debtEcological debtModule Energy/ClimateModule Energy/Climate

Gert GoeminneGert GoeminneCenter for Sustainable Development – Ghent UniversityCenter for Sustainable Development – Ghent University

The The ecological debt of Belgiumecological debt of Belgium consists of consists of

(1)(1) The ecological damage caused over time by Belgium in The ecological damage caused over time by Belgium in other countries or in an area under jurisdiction of another other countries or in an area under jurisdiction of another country through its production and consumption country through its production and consumption patterns, and/orpatterns, and/or

(2)(2) the ecological damage caused over time by Belgium to the ecological damage caused over time by Belgium to ecosystems beyond national jurisdiction through its ecosystems beyond national jurisdiction through its consumption and production patterns; and/orconsumption and production patterns; and/or

(3)(3) the exploitation or use of ecosystems and ecosystem the exploitation or use of ecosystems and ecosystem goods and services over time by Belgium at the expense goods and services over time by Belgium at the expense of the equitable rights to these ecosystems and of the equitable rights to these ecosystems and ecosystem goods and services by other countries or ecosystem goods and services by other countries or individualsindividuals

OverviewOverview

Introduction: the carbon cycleIntroduction: the carbon cycle

Fossil energy consumption in BelgiumFossil energy consumption in Belgium

Fossil energy and ecological debt in a global Fossil energy and ecological debt in a global contextcontext

Ecological debt and fossil fuel Ecological debt and fossil fuel consumption/depletionconsumption/depletion

The Carbon DebtThe Carbon Debt

ConclusionsConclusions

The carbon cycleThe carbon cycle

Fossil fuel consumption in BelgiumFossil fuel consumption in Belgium

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Coal PetrolGas Total fossilNuclear Renew ables + RecuperationTotal gross energy consumption WoodImport electricity

Energy (Self) Supporting RateEnergy (Self) Supporting Rate

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Self-supporting rate Imported coal Imported petrol

Imported gas Nuclear Imported electricity

Import raw fossil fuelsImport raw fossil fuels

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00 T

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Others

Australia

USSR

Middle-East

Africa

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Europe

Belgium & EnergyBelgium & Energy

1830-2000: exponential increase in energy 1830-2000: exponential increase in energy consumptionconsumption

Belgium: locked into a (fossil) energy based Belgium: locked into a (fossil) energy based infrastructureinfrastructure

Energy: from 100% self-supporting to 100% Energy: from 100% self-supporting to 100% importingimporting

Exported environmental & social pressure Exported environmental & social pressure (extraction)(extraction)

OverviewOverview

Introduction: the carbon cycleIntroduction: the carbon cycle

Fossil energy consumption in BelgiumFossil energy consumption in Belgium

Fossil energy and ecological debt in a global Fossil energy and ecological debt in a global contextcontext

Ecological debt and fossil fuel Ecological debt and fossil fuel consumption/depletionconsumption/depletion

The Carbon DebtThe Carbon Debt

ConclusionsConclusions

Ecological debtEcological debt

Ecological damage due toEcological damage due to1.1. Extraction activities (degradation & pollution)Extraction activities (degradation & pollution)

2.2. Depletion of fossil fuel reservesDepletion of fossil fuel reserves

3.3. Climate change from COClimate change from CO22 emissions emissions

Exploitation/use of ecosystem goods at the Exploitation/use of ecosystem goods at the expense of the equitable rights of othersexpense of the equitable rights of others

1.1. COCO22 absorption capacity absorption capacity

2.2. Fossil fuel reservesFossil fuel reserves

Ecological debt and fossil fuel Ecological debt and fossil fuel consumption/depletionconsumption/depletion

Proven World fossil fuel reserves (BP, 2002):Proven World fossil fuel reserves (BP, 2002):

850 billion TOE = 140 ton/capita850 billion TOE = 140 ton/capita

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World Belgium

OverviewOverviewIntroduction: the carbon cycleIntroduction: the carbon cycle

Fossil energy consumption in BelgiumFossil energy consumption in Belgium

Fossil energy and ecological debt in a global Fossil energy and ecological debt in a global contextcontext

Ecological debt and fossil fuel Ecological debt and fossil fuel consumption/depletionconsumption/depletion

The Carbon DebtThe Carbon DebtDefinitionDefinitionGeneral elements for implementationGeneral elements for implementationThe Belgian Carbon DebtThe Belgian Carbon Debt

ConclusionsConclusions

Defining the Carbon DebtDefining the Carbon Debt

1.1. ““over-emission of COover-emission of CO22 by country A over time with by country A over time with

respect to respect to a sustainable level“, and/orand/or

2.2. ““over-emission of COover-emission of CO22 by country A over time at the by country A over time at the

expense of the expense of the equitable rights to the absorption to the absorption capacity of the atmosphere by other countries or capacity of the atmosphere by other countries or individuals”individuals”

The The carbon debt of a country A consists of: of a country A consists of:

Sustainable levelSustainable level: 60% reduction (cfr. 1990): 60% reduction (cfr. 1990)no ‘absolute’ levels of sustainabilityno ‘absolute’ levels of sustainability

to “stabilise the world’s climate & to avoid worst to “stabilise the world’s climate & to avoid worst consequences” (IPCC)consequences” (IPCC)

Kyoto reduction for Belgium: 7,5%Kyoto reduction for Belgium: 7,5%

Equitable rightsEquitable rights: equal per capita?: equal per capita?atmosphere ‘belongs’ to nobodyatmosphere ‘belongs’ to nobody

varying geographical, climatic,… conditionsvarying geographical, climatic,… conditions

adjusted egalitarianismadjusted egalitarianism

Defining the Carbon DebtDefining the Carbon Debt

Debtors and CreditorsDebtors and CreditorsP

er c

apita

CO

2 em

issi

ons

time

Under-emitters

Over-emitters

Carbon debt:Carbon debt:

partly interstate: Historical Carbon Debt (HCD)partly interstate: Historical Carbon Debt (HCD)Over-emitters: HCD + (debtors)Over-emitters: HCD + (debtors)Under-emitters: HCD – (creditors) Under-emitters: HCD – (creditors)

intergenerational: Generational Carbon Debt (GCD)intergenerational: Generational Carbon Debt (GCD)

Sustainable level

Implementing the carbon debtImplementing the carbon debt

HCD: basis for allocating future emission rights?HCD: basis for allocating future emission rights?

Developed countries (HCD +) take the leadDeveloped countries (HCD +) take the leadDeveloping countries (HCD -) get space to growDeveloping countries (HCD -) get space to grow

GCD: a fund to assist future climate change victims?GCD: a fund to assist future climate change victims?

HCD as a measure for historical responsibilityHCD as a measure for historical responsibilityCommon but differentiated responsibilities (UNFCCC)Common but differentiated responsibilities (UNFCCC)

emission right = target emission – HCD/Nemission right = target emission – HCD/N

(Compensation of the interstate HCD over N years)(Compensation of the interstate HCD over N years)

Contraction, Convergence and Contraction, Convergence and Compensation Compensation

Per

cap

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ons

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Under-emitters

Sustainable level

Over-emitters

The Belgian Carbon DebtThe Belgian Carbon Debt

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Sustainable level (60% reduction - 1990) Belgium

58 billion €58 billion €==??

total carbon debt = 5787 million ton COtotal carbon debt = 5787 million ton CO22

ConclusionsConclusions

Belgium’s infrastructure has been Belgium’s infrastructure has been increasingly based on increasingly based on finitefinite foreign foreign (fossil)(fossil) energyenergy

Need for ‘Post-Fossil’ Development Need for ‘Post-Fossil’ Development Patterns Patterns

Developed countries could take the lead Developed countries could take the lead by recognizing and compensating their by recognizing and compensating their Carbon DebtCarbon Debt