ecn_solar_energy_rd_plan_2014_in_short__2_.pdf

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ECN Solar Energy R&D Plan 2014

in the context of the TKI Solar Energy Action Plan 2014

Draft summary, October 2013

(awaiting Top Team Energy priorities and decisions)

Developments in the global PV sector

The global PV industry sector is still in crisis, but the deepest point may have been reached. While

2012 showed a stabilization of the worldwide market compared to 2011 at 30 gigawatt-peak (GWp),

the 2013 market is expected to grow to around 37 GWp. This growth is accompanied by a significant

shift in geographical regions contributing to the total volume, with Asia/Pacific and the USA taking an

increasing share, leading to a better spread and potentially a more robust market development. By

the end of 2012 the total installed capacity was 100 GWp, 70% of which is in Europe.

In spite of the fact that a significant volume of cell and module production capacity has gone off-line

and that the market grows again, there is still overcapacity. Therefore upstream margins are very

small at best and capacity expansions (or even upgrades) are rare. This severely affects the business

of manufacturing companies and their suppliers, Dutch companies included. Interestingly, for several

reasons the thin-film part of the sector was affected less in terms of manufacturing equipment

ordered than the wafer-based silicon part.

Economies of scale and, especially, production overcapacity, have resulted in rapid reduction ofprices of solar modules and systems to very (unsustainably) low values. The downside of this

development is, as indicated above, that manufacturing companies suffer and that technology

innovation is very difficult. The upside, on the other hand, is that the first significant self-sustained

markets may develop soon in several parts of the world, driven by the fact that grid parity in

consumer and selected other markets has been reached. This is welcomed by stakeholders in the

downstream part of the sector and gives a boost to the developments and innovations at system

(application) level.

PV in the NetherlandsThe PV systems market in the Netherlands grew explosively in 2012, with the capacity added in one

year being bigger than the cumulative capacity of the two decades before. The combination of net

metering and low prices makes PV an attractive investment for all consumers and for a growing

number of SMEs. By the end of 2012, some 345 MWp was installed. 2012 was great year for the

upstream part of the Dutch PV sector with almost 1000 companies active in installation (most of

them have PV as a side business).

The upstream part of the Dutch PV sector, mainly focused on manufacturing equipment &

technology and materials, is strongly dependent on export and therefore suffers from the global

situation. Companies spend their reserves and their time on preparing for better times, whichhopefully will arrive soon. In concrete terms, this means that companies develop low cost, but


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particularly high-efficiency technologies that are expected to be the focus of capacity expansions in

the future.

Targets of the TKI Solar Energy

The TKI Solar Energy aims at:

1. facilitating and stimulating large-scale deployment of PV in the Netherlands and abroad bydeveloping cost-competitive solutions for physical integration into the built environment, the

infrastructure and the landscape and electrical integration into the grid;

2. maximizing the economic benefits for the Netherlands of the growth of the PV sector worldwide,in Europe and in our own country.

In quantitative terms, the TKI Solar Energy aims at (see also the Table):

1. a minimum installed capacity of 4 GWp in 2020 (a target that can be stretched to 8 GWp iffavorable conditions apply). 8 GWp corresponds to 6% of electricity consumption and 1% of final

energy consumption. Thus, PV can make a significant contribution to the 2020 target of 14% as

adopted in the National Energy Agreement;

2. 7.500 jobs in all parts of the PV sector in 2020 , to be compared with approximately 2500 jobs in2012.

TKI Solar Energy Program Lines and their contributions to the targets

The TKI Solar Energy program is organized along the following Program Lines:

1. Integration1a. Physical integration (buildings, infrastructure, landscape) - Solar Energy for the Built

Environment ('ZEGO'; programming jointly with TKI EnerGO)

Integrated PV - BIPV and I2PV.

PV landscape architecture - maximizing output, minimizing impact.

1b. Electrical integration (grid) - Smart solar energy solutions

Concepts for a very high degree of grid penetration (incl. storage and joint

approaches with Wind Energy, Smart Grids and (power to) Gas) and fundamentaldevelopment of future smart energy systems and system integration concepts.


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Smart modules - integrated functionality for integration and yield maximizationProduction forecasting and virtual power plants

1c. Smart Energy City Initiative (with TKIs EnerGO and Switch2SmartGrids)

2. Generation2a. Generic (enabling) technology development and combinations of PV technologies

Development of generic and cross-cutting solutions for different PV technologies and

production processes.

Development of very high efficiency PV concepts based on crystalline silicon PV, thin-

film PV and combinations of different PV technologies.

2b. Thin-film PV technologies

Increasing output and decreasing costs of thin-film PV concepts, by improving

related production processes and equipment and by application of new materials.

2c. Wafer-based silicon PV technologiesIncreasing output and decreasing costs of wafer-based crystalline silicon PV cells and

modules, by improving related production processes and equipment and by

application of new device architectures and materials.

2d. Application-specific developments and demonstration

Building a dedicated facility for pilot production and demonstration of integrated,

high-performance PV products based on Dutch knowledge.

Development of application-specific materials and PV product designs (e.g. for

extreme operating conditions) and large-scale field testing and demonstration

thereof.

3. Organisation3a. Human Capital Agenda

3b. Internationalisation Agenda (including participation in EU programs)

3c. Further strengthening SME participation and business development (jointly with Syntens

and Agency NL)

3d. Organising the Dutch PV sector, TKI program development, Top Sector-wide initiatives

Program Line 1 contributes directly to the TKI deployment target in GWp, since it addresses the

advanced system hardware needed for large-scale deployment in a densely populated country at

very high degrees of grid penetration. Program Line 2 contributes indirectly to that volume target, by

developing cost-competitive cells and modules that may be manufactured abroad, but will also be

used in the Netherlands (note that approximately 50% of all solar modules produced worldwide

contain Dutch technology).

Program Lines 1 and 2 both contribute directly to the TKI employment target.

Program Line 3 is supportive to the other two Program Lines.


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ECN Solar Energy contributions to the TKI Action Plan 2014

ECN Solar Energys 2014 R&D plan closely follows the TKI priorities. The scope of ECNs plan,

however, is narrower, because the TKI Plan describes R&D by all partners in the Netherlands, of

which ECN is one, although an important. ECN priorities are highlighted in red in the TKI priorities.

1. Integration1a. Physical integration (buildings, infrastructure, landscape) - Solar Energy for the Built

Environment ('ZEGO'; programming jointly with TKI EnerGO)

Integrated PV - BIPV and I2PV (application-related aspects of module technology).

PV landscape architecture - maximizing output, minimizing impact.

1b. Electrical integration (grid) - Smart solar energy solutions

Concepts for a very high degree of grid penetration (incl. storage and joint

approaches with Wind Energy, Smart Grids and (power to) Gas) and fundamental

development of future smart energy systems and system integration concepts.

Smart modules - integrated functionality for integration and yield maximization

Production forecasting and virtual power plants

1c. Smart Energy City Initiative (with TKIs EnerGO and Switch2SmartGrids)

2. Generation2a. Generic (enabling) technology development and combinations of PV technologies

Development of generic and cross-cutting solutions for different PV technologies and

production processesincluding ECNs part in Solliance.

Development of very high efficiency PV concepts based on crystalline silicon PV, thin-

film PV and combinations of different PV technologies including ECNs participation

in the NWO-program supporting the Top Sector Energy.

2b. Thin-film PV technologies

Increasing output and decreasing costs of thin-film PV concepts, by improving

related production processes and equipment and by application of new materials

ECNs part in Solliance.

2c. Wafer-based silicon PV technologies

Increasing output and decreasing costs of wafer-based crystalline silicon PV cells and

modules, by improving related production processes and equipment and by

application of new device architectures and materials.

2d. Application-specific developments and demonstration

Building a dedicated facility for pilot production and demonstration of integrated,

high-performance PV products based on Dutch knowledge ECN as technology

partner in a Dutch industry consortium.

Development of application-specific materials and PV product designs (e.g. for

extreme operating conditions) and large-scale field testing and demonstration

thereof.


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3. Organisation3a. Human Capital Agenda

3b. Internationalisation Agenda (including participation in EU programs)

3c. Further strengthening SME participation and business development (jointly with Syntens

and Agency NL)

3d. Organising the Dutch PV sector, TKI program development (ECNs contribution to TKI

management), Top Sector-wide initiatives

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