1

分析师：

牛鹏云

(8621) 68634510-8278

npy3333@xcsc.com

执业证书编号：

S0500511050002

朱礼旭

(8621) 68634510-8675

Zlx3448@xcsc.com

执业证书编号：

S0500511080003

地址：上海市浦东新区陆家嘴环路

958号华能联合大厦5层湘财证券研

究所

http://www.xcsc.com

宏观策略研究 2014 年 1 月 8 日 湘财证券研究所

投资策略报告

2

1 EMC ............................................................................................................. 4

1.1 (EMC) ........................................................................................................... 4

1.2 EMC .......................................................................................................................... 4

1.3 EMC ............................................................................................................ 4

1.3.1 ................................................................................................................... 4

1.3.2 ........................................................... 5

1.3.3 ................................................................................... 5

1.3.4 .......................................................................................................................... 5

1.4 EMC ................................................................................................................... 6

1.5 EMC ................................................................................................................... 6

1.6 ...................................................................................................................................... 6

1.6.2 ................................................................................................................... 7

1.6.3 ............................................................................................................... 7

1.6.4 ...................................................................................................................... 8

1.6.5 ...................................................................................................................... 8

2 (EMC) ................................................................................................................. 9

2.1 EMC ................................................................................................................ 10

2.1.1 .................................................................................................................................. 10

2.1.2 .................................................................................................................................. 10

2.1.3 ...................................................................................................................................11

2.2 EMC ..............................................................................................................11

2.3 EMC .................................................................................................. 12

3 ............................................................................... 14

3.1 EMC ................................................................................................... 14

3.1.1 .................................................................................................................... 14

3.1.2 ............................................................................................... 15

3.1.3 ...................................................................................................... 15

3.1.4 ............................................................ 16

3.1.5 ........................................................................................ 16

3.1.6 ................................................................ 16

3.1.7 ................................................................................. 16

3.1.8 ............................................................................................ 17

3.2 (EMC) ............................................................................. 17

3.2.1 ..................................................... 18

3.2.2 .................................... 18

3.2.3 ...................................................................................................... 18

3.2.4 ................................................................... 19

3.2.5 ................................................................ 19

3.2.6 ........................................... 20

3.2.7 .............................................. 20

3.2.8 ...................................................................................................... 20

4 ..................................................................................................................................................... 21

3

1 EMC ................................................................................................................................... 4

2 EMC ................................................................................................................. 6

3 2000 ......................................................................................................... 12

4 ...................................................................................................... 12

5 ................................................................................................... 15

1 EMC ..................................................................................................................... 5

2 EMC ........................................................................................................................ 6

3 EMC ..................................................................................................................... 9

4 2020 .......................................................................... 9

5 GDP ................................................ 10

6 2005-2012 EMC ....................................................................................... 13

7 EMC ................................................................................................................................. 14

8 EMC ...................................................................................................................... 17

9 EMC ............................................................................... 21

1 EMC

1.1 (EMC)

( Energy Management Contract EMC) 20

70

EMC

EMC

( ESCO EMC

) ESCO

EMC

1.2 EMC

1 EMC

1.3 EMC

1.3.1

1.3.2

1 EMC

1.3.3

1.3.4

1.4 EMC

2 EMC

1.5 EMC

2 EMC

1.6

1.6.1

EMC

EMCo

1.6.2

EMC

1.6.3

1

75% EMCo

EMCo

2

EMCo

3

EMCo

EMCo

EMCo

4

EMCo

1.6.4

EMC EMCo

EMCo

EMCo

1.6.5

EMC

3 EMC

2 (EMC)

20 70

4 2020

5 GDP

2.1 EMC

2.1.1

EMC EMC

EMC

1992

EMC

EMC

1992

2000 30

2.1.2

EMC

EMC

2.1.3

EMC 1996 EMC

25 35

2.2 EMC

2013-2017 EMC

2006 2010 EMCA 89 560

5 ; 76

782 9 ; 1.6 17.5

10 ; 47.3 836.29

16 ; 13.1 287.51

22 ; 86.18 1064.85

215.45 2662.13 11

; 1800

2015 2000

10 20 3000

6000

2015 5000

10 50

EMC

3 2000

4

2.3 EMC

1997

/

3

30%

3 EMCo

99%

CO2

2003 11 13

-- EMCA

2010 4 2

2000 3

2013 3210 , 32

GB 2011 1 1

2011 12

2012 4175

40

10 6 5

18 1 83

2012 2011 1250.26

1653.37 32.24% 2011 412.43

557.65 35.21% 1828.36

4570.9

2013-2017 EMC

2015 2000

10 20 3000

6000

2015

5000 10 50

6 2005-2012 EMC

3

3.1 EMC

1998 12 10

7 EMC

3.1.1

2007 10 28

66

2010 4

2010

6

5

3.1.2

;

3.1.3

2010 4

( )

1. ;2.

;3.

;4.

3.1.4

3.1.5

3.1.6

2010 (GB/T24915)

(GB/T13234 2009

)

3.1.7

46

1992

3.1.8

2%

28% 59%

11%

3.2 (EMC)

8 EMC

3.2.1

1. ;2. (

);3.

;4. (

10 15 )

3.2.2

1991

1998 (1979 )

(1995 ) 10

1996 1997 30%

( NEDO)

25% 35%

3.2.3

REEP(Ratepayer-Funded Energy Efficiency Program)

2002 2 25%

1000

1.

GEF( )

(

)

2.

3.

4.

3.2.4

1.

2.

3.

4.

3.2.5

1. 2.

3.

4.

; ;

3.2.6

IPMVP-2002

M&V(Measurementand Verification )

ASHPAE

PowerViewTM ( )

( )

1.

2.

3.2.7

1.

;2.

;3.

;4.

3.2.8

9 EMC

4

EMC EMC

EMC

EMC

300

6-12 15%

6-12 5% 15%

6-12 -5% 5%

6-12 5%

6-12 15%