ecai 2014 tutorial on a behavioral analysis tool for agent-based simulations (pet)
TRANSCRIPT
When Experimental and Computational Research Meet:The Participatory Extension Module v2.0Richard O. Legendi, Tams Mhr, Lszl Gulys,Rajmund Bocsi, Vilmos Kozma, Peter Rieger
{rlegendi, tmahr, lgulyas, rbocsi, vkozma, prieger}@aitia.ai
AITIA International, Inc.
The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Union, Seventh Framework Programme FP7/2007-2013 under grant agreement no. CRISIS-ICT-2011-288501.
OutlineBackgroundThe CRISIS project
Demo
Usage
GUI editor
Future works
BackgroundTraditional modeling approaches challenged
(in economics and elsewhere)
The concept of rationality in question
The wilderness of irrationality
Behavioral Economics attemps to collect empirical data on human (economic) behavior
Recognized by Vernon Smith's Nobel prize
Early / traditional behavioral experiments are carried out in small groups and with simple economies
Background, cont.Experiments with a large number of participants is hard to handle
Programming complex market behavior (experimental scenarios)
With complex agents
With complex market interactions
The technique of agent-based simulations lends itself naturally
Some agents of an ABM are controlled by human subjects
Background, cont. 2Agent-based models may also benefit
from
participatory experiments
Sensitivity of system behavior can be tested
Especially in case of learning / evolving agents
(prone to co-evolve, converge too early)
E.g., human agents in the SFI Artificial Stock Market
Empirical data about individiual behavior
Data collection, calibration, etc.
Background: The CRISIS ProjectThe CRISIS project addresses building a next generation macroeconomic and financial system policymaking model: a bottom-up agent-based simulation that fully accounts for the heterogeneity of households, firms, and government actors. The model will incorporate the latest evidence from behavioral economics in portraying agent behavior, and the CRISIS team will also collect new data on agent decision making using experimental economics techniques. While any model must make simplifying assumptions about human behavior, the CRISIS model will be significantly more realistic in its portrayal of relevant agent behavior than the current generation of policymaking models.
Crisis project description: https://www.crisis-economics.eu/
Harmonized library, Game, policymaking model
Web-based Game(Participatory Experiments)Economic Simulator(Cloud-Based Parameter Sweep Execution)ModellingFramework
Models
PET v2.0AITIA's PET Software since 2004Participatory Extension
Generalized components behind the CRISIS Game
Modern, scalable infrastructurePrevious version is 5+ years old
Components may run on (several) different machines
Software already available for any experiment
PET v2.0Can be used:LocallyLaboratory experiments
Policy makers (scenario analysis with a proper model)
On any webserver to run constantlyGather data (scores from model and all user actions replay)
Dissemination
Questionnaire moduleE.g., Verify if subjects understood the rules, etc.
Demo
The El Farol Bar ProblemAgents are researchers (N=100)
They visit a popular but small bar in Santa FIf attendance > 60 (overcrowded)Who hasnt come
If attendance