EC-Earth Meeting Summary

&

LPJ-GUESS EC-Earth Coupling Update

Paul Miller

Dept. of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science

Lund University

CMIP underlying questions

• How does the Earth system respond to forcing?

• What are the origins and consequences of systematic model biases?

• How can we assess future climate changes given climate variability,

climate predictability, and uncertainties in scenarios?

CMIP Motivation

Slide adapted from Ralf Döscher

Aerosols, short-lived species, and methane – Aerosols do not span a good range in the RCPs

– Diagnosing indirect aerosol effects and absorbing aerosol effects

Model evaluation, performance metrics

– More detailed and systematic model evaluation during the development process

– a continued push for standard performance metrics

– Process-oriented evaluation to understand model biases and error compensation

– CMIP Standardized diagnostic and performance metrics package that runs on the ESGF

Systematic Biases – Example: biases in precipitation improve only slowly

CO2 (ESM Issues) – “ESMs historical and future land carbon pools and fluxes are still embarrassingly all over the place” in

CMIP5

– “Obviously, not enough tuning/validation has been done in the model development phase (lack of time ?)”

– Emission driven runs should be the rule not the exception as it was in CMIP5

– more common use of N-limitations on land; better treatment of land-use and forest regrowth; O3 effects on

vegetation; more complex ocean ecosystem models with Fe-limitations.

Clouds (CFMIP) – Lack of process diagnostics in coupled idealized experiments

– Identifying which parts of model physics contribute most to inter-model differences in cloud

feedbacks.

– A CMIP approach to developing and testing physical hypotheses and observational constraints using

sensitivity experiments.

(Some) Science Gaps and Lessons after CMIP5

Slide idea: Ralf

Döscher

300

1000

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700

600

500

400

500 1000 1500 2500 3500 2000 3000

obser-

vations

soil+litter C (PgC)

veg

eta

tio

n C

(P

gC

)

Anav et al. 2013

J. Climate 26: 6801

Baseline (1986-2005) simulated terrestrial ecosystem C pools

in IPCC-AR5 carbon-climate ESMs

• A consortium to commonly develop and maintain a global Earth

system model (LoI)

• A collaboration of a consortium of meteorological institutes,

universities and other public parties … on the development of an Earth

System model based on the models … of the ECMWF. ... The newest

release, EC-EARTH V3, is based on the ECMWF Seasonal Forecasting

System 4. (LoI)

• The main objective of EC-Earth is to develop and apply an Earth System

Model based on ECMWF's seasonal forecasting system for providing

trustworthy climate information to climate services and to advance

scientific knowledge on the Earth system, its variability, predictability

and long-term changes resulting from external forcing. (Science

Implementation Plan)

• An open consortium accepting new European members

EC-Earth

Slide adapted from Ralf Döscher

• EC-Earth meeting in Lund last week

• Jointly arranged by MERGE (Annika & Paul) and SMHI (Ralf Döscher)

• 55 participants, with most partners represented

• Most talks and pdfs will be available online: ecearth.knmi.nl

• Theme: Progress towards EC-Earth as an ESM

• Structure:

Opening talks

Working Group reports

FMI & ECMWF perspectives

CMIP6 and WG discussions

Day 2: scientific presentations and WG reports to plenary

EC-Earth Meeting, Lund, Sep. 28-29

LPJ-GUESS

(vegetation &

BGC) HTESSEL

(land surface)

NEMO

PISCES (BGC)

OASIS-MCT LAI

high &

low vegetation

(tile fraction

high &

low vegetation)

temperature

radiation

Precipitation

Soil

NEE/CO2, CH4, N2O,

soot, BVOC,

NOx

IFS

(atmosphere)

TM5

(chemistry,

transport)

Implemented

CMIP6

planned

EC-Earth ESM

CO2

Slide adapted from Ben Smith

• Presentation of MERGE (Paul M.)

• Gunilla Svensson presented the Bolin Centre (BCCR)

• Presentations from new partners FMI & Univ. Helsinki

• Erland Källen gave ECMWF perspectives and updates: development

cycles, resolution and computer resources

• Most talks and pdfs will be available online: ecearth.knmi.nl

Introductory Talks

300

1000

900

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700

600

500

400

500 1000 1500 2500 3500 2000 3000

obser-

vations

soil+litter C (PgC)

veg

eta

tio

n C

(P

gC

)

Anav et al. 2013

J. Climate 26: 6801

& Smith et al. 2014, Biogeosciences

Baseline (1986-2005) simulated terrestrial ecosystem C pools

in IPCC-AR5 carbon-climate ESMs

LPJ-GUESS

(C-N)

offline

CMIP6

EOS

DECK = Development, Evaluation,

Characterisation of Klima

• Runs to evaluate the model and to test its sensitivity

AMIP 1979 – 2010

multi-hundred-year pre-industrial control simulation

1% per year carbon dioxide (CO2) increase, up to 4 times

preindustrial levels

instantaneous quadrupling of CO2

starting in the 19th century and running through the 21st century

using RCP8.5

● Open questions

GCM, ESM, or CO2-ESM ?

Should be repeated for all resolutions participating in MIPs?

Slide adapted from Ralf Döscher

CMIP6 Timeline

EOS

• Final, indirect aerosol effects in place by 2015 (SMHI/FMI)

• NEMO 3.6 ’official’ release mid-2015

• Dec. 2014: Technically coupled and running ESM (LPJ-GUESS, TM5,

NEMO 3.6/PISCES), using IFS cycle 36r4.

• IFS cycle updates carried out and evaluated in parallel

• Jan-Mar 2015: Improved coupling of ESM (speed, documentation,

configurations etc.). Tuning of GCM version.

• Apr-Jun 2015: Tuning of C cycle version

• Jul-Sep 2015: Tuned C cycle version in place

• Oct-Dec 2015: ESM spinup & first DECK runs

• 2016: CMIP6 DECK runs & first ScenarioMIP runs

EC-Earth Roadmap

LPJ-GUESS

(vegetation &

BGC)

Lund svn Repository

Crop, wetland, O3, management

branches

EC-Earth Branch OASIS-MCT interface

Sends vegetation & CO2 fields

LPJ-GUESS Development

Trunk (C-N interactions, BVOC, Landuse)

• OASIS coupling tested

with “dummy” IFS and

“dummy” TM5 on Krypton.

• Climate data from ECE

v3.1 runs (K. Wyser)

• Will use for offline site

tests, addressing LAI

biases, NEE etc.

• Works on Windows (no

OASIS)

LPJ-GUESS

(vegetation &

BGC)

Lund svn Repository

HTESSEL

(land surface)

NEMO/PISCES

(3.6?)

OASIS-MCT LAI

high &

low vegetation

(tile fraction

high &

low vegetation)

temperature

radiation

Precipitation

Soil

NEE/CO2, CH4, N2O,

soot, BVOC,

NOx

IFS

(atmosphere)

TM5

(chemistry,

transport)

Implemented

CMIP6

planned

CMIP6 and Beyond

CO2

• LPJ-GUESS (EC-Earth branch) currently included (along with TM5,

NEMO 3.6 & new coupling interface) in: branches/development/2014/r1902-merge-new-components

• Naming and number of coupling fields to be finalized (BVOC, albedo)

• Loose ends, e.g. spin-up, LAI bias, N deposition

• Reimplementation of v2.4 LAI switches in IFS code ongoing (Lund,

October 2014)

• Set of benchmarks and scripts to evaluate performance at T255 resolution

• Lund development branches to be integrated in future work

• Jan 2015: New postdoc at Lund University will work on SOA-cloud

interactions with in V3

LPJ-GUESS Coupling to EC-Earth v3.1

• Improved snow treatment and melt-pond parameterisation in LIM3

• EC-Earth being used to diagnose reasons for precipitation increases in

the Arctic

• Higher resolution does not seem to remove the warm bias seen in S.

ocean SSTs

• Blocking events better captured by ECE v3 than ECE v2

• Solar constant geoengineering experiments ongoing

• EMoP – a new ECE monitoring and output package available now

• Currently TWO (!) ice sheet models being coupled to ECE (DMI &

Utrecht)

EC-Earth Meeting: Some Science Highlights

Tuning WG report

R. Bintanja (KNMI), Isabel Andreu-Burillo (IC3), Paolo Davini (ISAC-CNR), Luca Filippi (ISAC-CNR), Emily

Gleeson (MET-éireann), Virginie Guemas (IC3), J. von Hardenberg (ISAC-CNR), T. Koenigk (SMHI), U. Willén (SMHI), K. Wyser (SMHI), S. Yang (DMI)

EC-Earth 3.1 (2014) vs. 3.0.1 (2012/2013) • Introduction of a proportional advection mass fixer for water species in the

atmosphere (backported from Cy38r1).

• Heat flux corrector has been removed.

• The parameter for entrainment in organized convection is reduced from 1.8*10^-4 to 1.5*10^-4 (ENTRORG), in order to decrease the surface temperature cold bias seen in v3.01.

• Diffusive albedo for the ocean is reduced from 0.06 to 0.05 (RALBSEAD), in order to decrease the surface temperature cold bias seen in v3.01

• The runoff flux correction in v3.01 used to balance P-E has been changed to a correction factor for liquid precipitation over the oceans

• Various tuning changes in the namelist of NEMO.

• The warm ocean parameterization (LEOCWA) has been disabled in coupled runs. When true, IFS mimics the absorption of solar radiation by the uppermost layer of the ocean simulateing the diurnal cycle of solar heating, but in coupled runs the ocean already accounts for the absorption of solar radiation. Resulted in a larger LW flux and subsequently to a cooling of the ocean (in NEMO).

• Bug fixing of two different issues in NEMO/LIM3 that were causing a significant reduction of the sea level height.

J. Von Hardenberg

Mean fields

Field EC-EARTH 3.01

(io03)

EC-EARTH 3.1

(tom8)

OBSERVATION

S

TOA -0.43 W/m2 -0.91 W/m2 Should be 0

SFC 2.03 W/m2 0.15 W/m2 Should be 0

TOA-SFC -2.46 W/m2 -1.07 W/m2 Should be 0

P-E 0.031 mm/day -0.016 mm/day Should be 0

SST 17.69 0C 18.71 0C 18.41 (Hadisst 1990-2010)

T2M 13.24

C 14.41

C 14.43

C (ERAI 1990-2010)

SSH trend

imbalance

1.6 m/100 yr -0.77 m/100 yr Should be 0

Permanent year 2000 forcing, averages over 100 years, 810 y spinup for ECE 3.1 and 210 y spinup for ECE 3.0.1

J. Von Hardenberg

Near surface temperatures

v 3.1 - OBS

v 3.0.1 - OBS

v 3.1

• Tropics still too cold • Warm high latitudes bias still

present (particularly in winter)

J. Von Hardenberg

Sea-surface temperatures

v 3.1 - OBS

v 3.0.1 - OBS

v 3.1

• Cold pool in N. Atlantic • S. ocean bias still present

J. Von Hardenberg

Ocean and Sea Ice Working Group

Activity Report

Torben Koenigk1, Uwe Fladrich1, Andreas Sterl2, Caroline Katsman2,

Hylke de Vries2, Virginie Guemas3, Chloe Prodhomme3, Neven Fuckar3,

Laurent Brodeau4, Shuting Yang5, Torben Schmith5, Sarah Keeley6,

Magdalena Balmaseda6, Kristian Mogensen6, Petteri Uotila7, Alvaro Peliz8

1 SMHI

2 KNMI

3 IC3

4 Stockholm University

5 DMI

6 ECMWF

7 FMI

8 University of Lisbon

1. Sea ice

Multiple Ice categories: o LIM3 with multiple ice categories is running in EC-Earth3.1-ocean

(NEMO3.3.1) but not used in coupled EC-EARTH yet.

o The coupling interface of NEMO and IFS in EC-EARTH 3.1 is not ready for

the exchange of mutiple sea-ice categories and fluxes. OASIS3 in EC-

EARTH 3.1 does not support multi category fields.

Modifications in IFS

o New tiles have been added for multiple sea-ice categories

o Sea-ice concentration and temperature are received from the coupler for

each category and surface energy balance and fluxes are computed for

each tile

o Still some work needed to send fluxes per category back to NEMO

Upcoming EC-Earth version: OASIS3-MCT gives initial support to multi-category

fields, NEMO 3.6 will support multi-category fields, new IFS coupling interface

(CPLNG, see Uwe’s talk) with support for multi-cat sea ice.

Multiple ice categories will be integrated into upcoming EC-

Earth version. Torben Koenigk

2. Ocean BGC-model

- Introduction and testing of PISCES into EC-Earth3.1

finished (by Virginie and Roland Seferian (LSCE)).

- sources + namelists +configuration files uploaded in the r1722-pisces branch

from the svn-repository.

- Main changes: Added the TOP sources,

added *_PISCES configurations for NEMO,

added namelists for PISCES and TOP

added variables in the iodef.xml file for PISCES output

- Instructions to be able to use PISCES can be found here:

https://dev.ec-earth.org/projects/ecearth3/wiki/PISCES

Update to NEMO3.6: maybe not straightaway due to large changes in the

coupling interface between NEMO and PISCES in NEMO3.3 and NEMO3.6.

Virginie and Roland do not have time to repeat the coupling process for

NEMO3.6 but would be available as contact persons.

PISCES is needed for EC-Earth CMIP6

Torben Koenigk

3. Update to NEMO3.6

Why NEMO3.6?

Development theme: "Toward a simpler and more robust NEMO“

- "a stable release for the next two years“

- "released before the end of 2014“ – but now “stable version in middle of 2015”

- NEMO-team strongly recommends using NEMO3.6 for CMIP6

- Some of many(!) new features:

+ embedded sea-ice

+ LOBSTER becomes an option of PISCES

+ LIM3 conservation of mass, salt, heat

+ Multi-category coupling interface

Status:

- EC-Earth Work in NEMO3.6 integration started October 2013

- stay close to development and NEMO repository

- 9 issues reported (4 closed) to NEMO team in the process

- EC-Earth3/NEMO3.6 available from SVN repository for testing

- Both standalone and coupled versions can be run for at least for a couple of month

To assure continuous good communication with the NEMO-team,

Laurent Brodeau will be EC-Earth contact person for the NEMO

development committee. Torben Koenigk

ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND LAND

WORKING GROUP PROGRESS REPORT

Twan van Noije (KNMI)

&

Paul Miller (Lund University)

EC-Earth meeting, Lund, 29-30 September 2014

Terms of Reference for the WG

February version:

• Finalize development of V2.4 on biophysical coupling between LPJG and

EC-Earth

• Implement TM into EC-Earth V3

• Implement carbon cycle model in EC-Earth V3 based on LPJ-GUESS,

PISCES and TM

Twan van Noije

FebruaryJuly version:

• Finalize development of V2.4 on biophysical coupling between LPJG and

EC-Earth

• Implement TM into EC-Earth V3

• Implement carbon cycle model in EC-Earth V3 based on LPJ-GUESS,

PISCES and TM

• Provide a description of the planned coupling interfaces for all

components in collaboration with other work groups

(Draft written, to be discussed during break out)

Terms of Reference for the WG

Twan van Noije

TM5 in EC-Earth V2.4

Completed description and evaluation paper: T. van Noije, et al.,

Simulation of tropospheric chemistry and aerosols with the climate model EC-Earth,

GMDD, 7, 1933-2006, 2014; accepted by GMD

Also includes evaluation of other aerosol components, AOD, tropospheric and

surface ozone (O3), methane (CH4) lifetime, oxidizing capacity (OH), carbon

monoxide (CO) and transport of radon-222.

Sulphate aerosol (SO4) EC-Earth ERA-Interim Other studies

Burden (Tg S) 0.52 0.50 0.67 ± 0.17 (ACCMIP)

Lifetime (days) 4.9 4.7 5.0 ± 2.0 (ACCMIP)

4.1 ± 0.7 (AeroCom-I)

Optical depth 0.021 0.021 0.044 (MACC)

Sulfur emissions (Tg S yr-1) EC-Earth ERA-Interim ACCMIP

Total SO2 58.7 65 ± 2

Volcanic SO2 4.8 ~ 12 ± 2

DMS 19.4 (± 0.2) 19.1 (± 0.3) 23 ± 5

Twan van Noije

Status TM5 in EC-Earth V3

• Implemented TM5 coupling in V3:

Involved technical work for:

o New IFS coupling interface (CPLNG)

o OASIS3-MCT coupler (in charge of timing, accumulation, etc.)

o ec-conf interface

o Accommodating transfer of spectral fields (from IFS to TM5)

o Revised regridding options

• Included TM5 as vendor branch in repository

Latest model version has both CBM4 and CB05 chemistry

• Merged TM5 development branch into latest NEMO3.6-based branch:

List of remaining issues identified during code sprint at SMHI and currently

being addressed (KNMI/SMHI)

Twan van Noije

Other developments regarding chemistry/aerosols

• FMI and Univ. Helsinki joined; expressed interest in:

o Aerosol-cloud interactions

o SOA formation in relation to BVOCs

o Tropospheric halogen chemistry

• Clifford Chuwah (KNMI) studied impacts of aerosol reductions on future

climate using EC-Earth V2.3:

o Using aerosol concentrations from TM5 based on RCP6.0-like scenarios from

the IMAGE integrated assessment model

Chuwah et al., Atmos. Environ., 2013

o Publication in preparation

• New PhD student at Univ. Utrecht/KNMI will work on aerosol-cloud

interactions with TM5/EC-Earth V3

• TM5/EC-Earth part of CRESCENDO and other Horizon 2020 proposals

Twan van Noije

Status carbon cycle

• Prepared single-tracer CO2 version of TM5:

o Implemented anthropogenic CO2 emissions from fossil-fuel combustion /

cement production (2-D) and land use (0-D, but will be 2-D in CMIP6)

o Configuration with both CO2 and chemistry/aerosols straightforward to make

(Other ESMs will also have 3-D CO2 transport in the atmosphere, as it allows for

more detailed validation of surface fluxes.)

• Code for running PISCES in EC-Earth V3.1 tested and submitted to

repository

Strategy for coupling NEMO3.6/PISCES to be discussed

• LPJ-GUESS coupling to EC-Earth V3 in progress

Covered by Paul

Twan van Noije

Discussion Outcomes

• As the WG deals with atmospheric chemistry, aerosol microphysics, and CO2 transport, we propose to change “Atmospheric Chemistry” to “Atmospheric Composition”

• Requirements for aerosol-cloud interactions: aerosol number/mass concentration fields to be exchanged, exchange frequency to be specified (Hannele Korhonen)

• May also be beneficial to have IFS describe aerosol removal in clouds, implying that tendencies of aerosol concentrations have to be fed back to TM5.

• SOA formation scheme – requirements for monoterpenes speciation in LPJ-GUESS to be specified (Risto Makkonen to Guy Schurgers)

• Impacts of volcanic eruptions on predictability (Martin Menegoz, IC3) – to contact KNMI if interested in explicit modelling with TM5 (PhD Narcisa Banda).

• List made of configurations to be supported, but how flexible does the system have to be?

Slide adapted from Twan van Noije

WG: Millennium scale climate model studies

Qiong Zhang

INK/Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University

Tasks of the WG are:

1. To develop and maintain a T159-ORCA1-LIM3 version following the

v3 code development for the purpose of long climate simulations

2. To carry out tuning of the final CMIP-6 code v3.x for the low resolution

3. To coordinate low resolution activities within EC-Earth

4. To line out CMIP-6 activities on paleo modelling

The work group is expected to increase the attraction of EC-Earth.

The millennium scale version will also be useful to complement standard

resolution climate scenarios.

SG appointed SU to lead this new group.

Q. Zhang

Bolin Centre for Climate Research in SU

RA2 Clouds, Aerosols, Turbulence

And Climate

RA3

Water And Climate

RA4 Biogeochemical Cycles And

Climate

RA1

Ocean-atmosphere Dynamics And Climate

RA5

Historical To Millennial Climate Variability

Research Areas

RA6 Orbital To Tectonic Climate Variability

Q. Zhang

• Last millennium (850-1850 AD) transient experiment

• Last Glacial Maximum (~21,000 BP) experiment

• Mid-Holocene (~6000 BP) climate sensitivity experiments on Sahara

desertification

PMIP protocol will be formulated in October, similar to PMIP3 with some

modifications

EC-Earth also joined PlioMIP2 (The Second Phase of the Pliocene Model

Intercomparison Project)

• The mid-Pliocene Warm Period (ca. 3.3–3 Ma), warmer climate than

present-day

• Continental position similar to present-day

• CO2: 405 ppm

Ongoing Paleoclimate Work in ECE

Q. Zhang

• Final, indirect aerosol effects in place by 2015 (SMHI/FMI)

• NEMO 3.6 ’official’ release mid-2015

• Dec. 2014: Technically coupled and running ESM (LPJ-GUESS, TM5,

NEMO 3.6/PISCES), using IFS cycle 36r4.

• IFS cycle updates carried out and evaluated in parallel

• Jan-Mar 2015: Improved coupling of ESM (speed, documentation,

configurations etc.). Tuning of GCM version.

• Apr-Jun 2015: Tuning of C cycle version

• Jul-Sep 2015: Tuned C cycle version in place

• Oct-Dec 2015: ESM spinup & first DECK runs

• 2016: CMIP6 DECK runs & first ScenarioMIP runs

EC-Earth Roadmap

R. Döscher