east or west - auealpes.files.wordpress.com · east or west that is the question 10 ans en russie !...

EAST or WESTThat is the question

1Exposé AUEG mars 2009

East or West That is the question

� 10 ans en Russie !� Pétrole et Gaz� Qui dit Quoi ?� Quelques clefs du succès?



EUROPE CHINE


10 ans en Russie !

1998 -1999 2000 - 2003 2004 - 2008

RUSSIERUSSIE &

KAZAKHSTAN


Reserves:

6% of oil world reserves (69 Gbbl) 7th Worldwide 25% of gas world reserves (47 TCM) 1rst Worldwide

Production:

12% of oil world production (9.3 Mbopd) 2nd Worldwi de25% of world gas production (630BCM/y) 1rst WorldwideExports: 50%Market share in EU oil & gas consumption: > 25%

Pétrole et Gaz


PETROLE OU ? MAINTENANT


PETROLE OU ? DEMAIN


PETROLE OU ? MAINTENANT et DEMAIN


LUKOIL

ROSNEFT

TNK-BP

PETROLE Les Acteurs + TRANSNEFT


Oil and Condensate

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

19

901

991

19

921

993

19

941

995

19

961

997

19

981

999

20

002

001

20

022

003

20

042

005

20

06

Crude oil production

Exported Crude oilMbopd

PETROLE COMBIEN ?


PETROLE EXPORT par Où ?


Northern Pipeline System

Surgut

SamaraAchinsk

Angarsk

Ukhta

Novorossiisk NakhodkaDaquing

Beijing

Murmansk

Moscow

Odessa

Primorsk Yaroslav

Usinsk

Brody

Taishet Skovorodino

IndigaKharyaga

BurgasAlexandroupolis

Vlore

BPS Phase III

ODESSA BRODI

EASTERN PIPELINE

PETROLE EXPORT Vers où ?


VIC’s72%

Independents

25%Gazprom

3%

105 MT

175 MT

Total refiningcapacity 2001

~280 MTRefining

throughput

Excesscapacity

� VIC’s control 2/3 of the Russian total refining capaci ty

� 42 plants of which 28 operating refineries + ~14 oil- processing facilities

�Most of the facilities are over 30 years old (no new f acility since 1991) an

are poorly maintained, with safety and environment leve ls far below western

� Low average utilization rate �� 63% in 2001 (vs 87% in 1990)

Russia’s refining capacity is old and largely under-utili zed


GAZ OU ?


GAS

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

70019

90

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

Gas production

Gas exportsBCMY

GAZ COMBIEN ?


GAZ EXPORT


Shtokman - Super-Giant gas field• 650 km from Murmansk

• Water Depth 280-380m

• Discovery in 1988

• 120Tcf (3200 BCM) of gas and 31 Mt (235 Mbbl) of condensate

• Sevmorneftegaz (100% owned by Gazprom) licensed to develop field until year 2018

• September 2005 : Gazprom announced 5 Short-Listed Companies :Total, ConocoPhillips, Chevron-Texaco, Norsk Hydro and Statoil.

• A Joint Working Group carries out pre-FEED LNG project, divided into 6 technical packages. Total was selected to lead Subsea-Production Package.

• Final Technical Report Commercial offer to be submitted in February

• April 1 st: Gazprom will select two or three partners

• December 2010: Gazprom plans first gas to be produced.


� 10 ans en Russie !� Pétrole et Gaz� Qui dit Quoi ?

�Géométrie�Des chiffres et des lettres� L’ accordéon du temps�Quel Management ?

� Quelques clefs du succès?


?

Géométrie


Géométrie


Des Chiffres et des Lettres

Oil & Gas Reserves Evaluation


POSSIBLE

Oil & Gas ReservesEvaluation

RussianClassification

Western Classification

A

B

C 1

C 2C 3

D 1

D 2

D 3

PROVED

PROBABLE

1P

2P

3P

Exemple: ABC1 = 540 000 T

C2 = 34 MT

1 P = 100 000 T

2P = 1 M T

Des Chiffres et des Lettres


L’accordéon du temps

OUEST 3 MOIS 2 ANS 10 ANS




RUSSIE1998

HIER DEMAIN 1 AN




RUSSIE1998

HIER DEMAIN 1 AN

RUSSIE2008

1 MOIS 1 AN ?


Quel Management ?

� Motivation et/ou Punition ?

�Délégation de pouvoir et / ou Bureaucratie ?


Quelques clefs du succès ?

� Prendre conseil�Trouver le bon partenaire�Comprendre et être compris�Construire la confiance


VIVE LE BANIA RUSSE !!!



EUROPE CHINE

RUSSIE33Exposé AUEG mars 2009

east or west - auealpes.files.wordpress.com · east or west that is the question 10 ans en russie !...

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