East of Scotland European Partnership

Commuting and migration

Dundee Contemporary Arts2nd February 2005

Chairman’s welcome and introduction

Mervyn Rolfe CBE

Chief Executive Dundee & Tayside Chamber of Commerce

Chairman ESEP

Programme

10.30 Commuting and migration patterns in the East of Scotland

John Lord, Director, yellow book ltd.

11.15 Commentary Greg Lloyd, Director of The Geddes Institute, University of Dundee

11.30 Group discussions (tea/coffee)12.15 Feedback and plenary discussion13.00 Lunch14.00 Close

Commuting and migration

• economic geography of the Programme area

• review of Census 2001 data– migration to/from the East of Scotland– growth in commuting to and from major cities– commuting patterns described and analysed

• area profiles posted on the website– plus a full version of this presentation– …and a short report

Economic geography

• jobs density• employment change• knowledge economy• residents’ qualifications• claimant count

Job density, 2002

Employment change 1998-2002

Tradable services and KBIs: % of total employment 2002

Tradable services & knowledge based industries: employment change 1998-2002

Residents’ qualifications

Claimant count rate (%)

Migration

• net migration 2000-2001• working age migration 2000-2001• in-migration from rest of UK• residents born outside Scotland

Net migration 2000-2001(to/from UK)

Net migration working-age 2000-2001 (to/from UK)

% of in-migration from rest of UK

% of residents born outside Scotland

Commuting

• commuting trends 1991-2001• commuting flows• cities and commuting• who commutes?

– occupation– Industry– status– personal characteristics

Increase in commuting 1991-2001

City In Out Netin

Aberdeen +15,600(+46%)

+2,600(+69%)

+13,000(+43%)

Dundee +5,900(+44%)

+2,100(+49%)

+3,800(+42%)

Edinburgh +12,500(+18%)

+5,400(+35%)

+7,100(+13%)

Commuting flows 2001

• the programme area• net flows by local authority• in-commuting and out-commuting• offshore employment

East of Scotland 2001

Total population 2,322,224

Working-age population 1,459,040

Total residents in employment 1,029,549

Total workforce 1,043,431

Net in-commuting from outwith region 13,882

Net commuting flows

-30,533

-14,695

-14,497

-12,378

-10,470

-6,320

-5,326

-4,041

-3,607

-3,135

1,452

12,982

43,099

61,810

-40,000 -20,000 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000

Aberdeenshire

East Lothian

Fife

Midlothian

Angus

Falkirk

Clackmannanshire

Perth and Kinross

West Lothian

Moray

Stirling

Dundee

Aberdeen

Edinburgh

% of residents who work locally

% of workforce who live locally

% of workforce who are in-commuters

% of residents who out-commute to work

Residents working offshore

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

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City travel to work areas

• Aberdeen• Dundee• Edinburgh• Stirling

% of residents working in Aberdeen

% of residents working in Dundee

% of residents working in Edinburgh

% of residents working in Stirling

Who are the commuters?

• occupation• industry• status• circumstances

Residents’ out-commuting by occupation

Higher professional Routine occupations

Working age residents: employment share by industry and place of work

Agriculture Manufacturing/mining

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

Aber

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City

Aber

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shire An

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Mid

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Mor

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working locally out-commuting

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Aber

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City

Aber

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shire An

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Clac

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East

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working locally out-commuting

Working age residents: employment share by industry and place of work (2)

Wholesale, retail Financial intermediation

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

Aber

deen

City

Aber

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shire An

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Dund

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East

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Edin

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Mid

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Mor

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Wes

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working locally out-commuting

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

Aber

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City

Aber

deen

shire An

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Clac

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Dund

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East

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Edin

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Falk

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Mid

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working locally out-commuting

Workforce: dependency on in-commuters

Public administration and defence

Real estate and business activities

Workforce: dependency on in-commuters (2)

Financial services Hotels and restaurants

Commuters are more likely to be

• in high wage, high skill occupations• working in knowledge based sectors• residents of areas close to big cities• in a full time job• employees• male• car owners

Defining roles/assessing performance

StatusJobshub

Commuter

zone

Self-containe

d

High performer

Under achiever

Performance criteria

• migration trends• working age population• commuter flows• jobs density• unemployment rate• resident/workplace earnings

Earnings ratios

Residents : Scottish average

Workplace : residents

East of Scotland European Partnership

Commuting and migration

Dundee Contemporary Arts2nd February 2005

Commuting, Migration and City Regions: A Commentary

Greg Lloyd

The Geddes Institute

East of Scotland European Partnership

Globalisation and global city regions

• globalisation is the principal driver of change

• cities and city regions are the emerging centres of economic competitiveness and innovation

• this creates agendas around urban development and governance.

• defined contexts – markets, growth, limited regulation

Connectivity?

European spatiality• spatial planning – the new

agenda for planning and management of regional development

• context of the global economy, competitiveness and scale

• normative assertions around city regions – mono-centric and poly-centric forms

• European Spatial Development Perspective– enhancing competitiveness– regional balance– urban-rural relations

Refreshing those bits……city regions?

• Partnership Agreement

• Framework for Economic Development

• Smart Successful Scotland

• National Planning Framework

• city regions

But where?

• Mono-centric approaches– Derek Halden Consultancy,

2002– Experían, 2004 – David Begg and Ian

Docherty,2002

• Polycentric urban region – Nick Bailey and Ivan Turok,

2001 – Edward Glaeser, 2004

• Research evidence

......and how?

• context – economic performance and scale

• urban morphology and place competition

• institutions and resources

• regulation and history

• identities and cultures

Clash of Ideas?

• old geography to new space

– functional, formal …. or fuzzy edges?– boundaries or borderless?

• single government to multiple governance

• fixed identities or fluid imagery?

East of Scotland European Partnership

Commuting and migration

Dundee Contemporary Arts2nd February 2005