earth’s climate past and future second edition chapter 17 climatic changes since the 1800s william...
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• EARTH’S CLIMATE• PAST and FUTURE
• SECOND EDITION
• CHAPTER 17• Climatic Changes Since the 1800s
WILLIAM F. RUDDIMAN
© 2008 W. H. Freeman and Company
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Major Concepts: warming planet!• Sea level change since 1880
– Source of records– Corrections for isostatic effects– 17 cm rise; 4 cm thermal expansion, 5 cm mountain glaciers, 2 cm Gr +AA
• Surface temperatures since 1900– Complications: reliability of early measurements, urban heat island effect
• 100-3000 m ocean temperature change since 1945– Heat stored is 10X more than in the atmosphere and provides evidence of
persistent warming• Mountain glaciers
– 99% retreated between 1900 and 1980, average retreat over a mile• Ground temperature profiles show clear warming
– Record integrates century-scale warming that has diffused into ground• Satellite measurements
– Arctic sea ice retreating– Greenland thinning, Antarctica more stable– Tropospheric warming agrees with ground measurements
• Natural variability since 1800’s?– Pacific decadal oscillation– North Atlantic Oscillation
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What correction needs to be made formost of these records?
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Corrected record
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Ground T recording stations
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Corrected for heat island effect
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Mountain glaciers
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Important study from 2005!
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Once collect temperature profile, model required temperature change at surface with diffusion models
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Satellite measurements of Arctic sea ice
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Satellite measurements of NH snow cover
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Satellite measurements of growing season in Alaska
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Satellite measurements of ice sheet thickness important part of climate monitoring
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NOAA NCDC
• http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/faqs/climfaq14.html
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Table 17-1 (in cm)
• Ocean thermal expansion +4
• Mountain glaciers +5
• Greenland and Ant. Ice +2
• All factors +11
• Observed sea level rise +17
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Short term oscillations?El Nino
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Short term oscillations?
Pacific Decadal Oscillation
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Short term oscillations?
North Atlantic Oscillation