earth’s changing environment lecture 7 global and us fossil fuel resources: oil and natural gas
TRANSCRIPT
Earth’s Changing EnvironmentLecture 7
Global and US
Fossil Fuel Resources: Oil and Natural Gas
Fossil Fuels
Formed 50 million to
350 million years ago from plants and animals.
Fuels• Petroleum• Natural Gas• Coal• Shale Oil• Tar Sands
US Energy Consumption (QBtu)
Petroleum 38 (39%) Natural Gas 23 (24%)
Oil and Natural Gas
Oil
Hydrocarbon chains
CH2-CH2- CH2-----
2CH2 + 3O2
2CO2 + 2H2O
Natural Gas
Primarily Methane
CH4
CH4 + 2O2
2H2O + CO2
Oil
Crude oil is measured in barrels. A 42-U.S. gallon barrel of crude oil provides slightly more than 44 gallons of petroleum products.
Oil Refinery
After crude oil is removed from the ground, it is sent to a refinery
The crude oil is separated into useable petroleum products.
Oil Refinery
A 42-U.S. gallon barrel of crude oil provides slightly more than 44 gallons of petroleum products.
One barrel of crude oil, when refined, produces 20 gallons of finished motor gasoline.
Petroleum Products
Gasoline Prices
Natural Gas
Natural gas prices have fluctuated because of variable supply.
New pipelines from Alaska may solve some of this problem.
Reserves and Resources
Reserves are known sources that are extractable with current technologies at current prices.
Resources include sources not currently being exploited because of cost and sources not yet discovered.
Oil and Gas Units
Gbo billion barrels of oil. G stands for Giga. Used for global and US oil resources
TCF trillion cubic feet. Used for global and US natural gas resources.
Example Problem 1
US annual oil consumption equals 7.2 Gbo. Express this value in millions of barrels per day.
US Oil consumption
= 7.2x109 bbl/ 365 days
= 20 million bbl/day
(11 million bbl day imported)
Global Oil and Gas Reserves, Resources, Consumption
Oil• Reserves 1,000 Gbo• Resources 1,700 Gbo• Consumption 28 Gbo
Natural Gas• Reserves 5,500 TCF• Resources 10,000 TCF• Consumption 90 TCF
US Oil and Gas Reserves, Resources, Consumption
Oil• Reserves 22 Gbo• Resources 98 Gbo• Consumption 7.2 Gbo
Natural Gas• Reserves 180 TCF• Resources 710 TCF• Consumption 23 TCF
Global Oil Resources
• Saudi Arabia 26%• Iraq 11%• Iran 10%• Kuwait 10%• UAE 6%• Russia 5%• Venezuela
5%• Nigeria 3%• Libya 3%• China 3%• Mexico 2%• United States 2%
Global Oil Production
• Saudi Arabia 12%• United States 11%• Russia 10%• Iran 5%• Mexico 5%• Norway
5%• China 4%• Venezuela 4%• Canada
4%
Global Natural Gas Resources
• Russia 29%• Iran 16%• Qatar 13%• Saudi Arabia 4%• UAE 3%• United States 3%• Algeria 3%• Nigeria 3%• Venezuela 3%• Iraq 2%
Global Natural Gas Production
• Russia 23%• United States 22%• Canada 7%• United Kingdom 4%• Algeria 3%• Netherlands 3%• Indonesia 3%
Example Problem 2
Assuming constant level of consumption, estimate the lifetime of US oil resources
Lifetime = 98 Gbo / 7.2 Gbo/year = 14 years
Assuming constant level of consumption, estimate the lifetime of global oil resources
Lifetime = 1700 Gbo / 28 Gbo/year = 60 years
What is wrong with these assumptions?
When will worldwide conventional oil production peak?
Lower 48 Crude Oil Reserves & Production, 1945-2000
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Cru
de
Oil
Re
se
rve
s,
Bil
lio
n B
arr
els
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
Cru
de
Oil
An
nu
al
Pro
du
cti
on
, B
illi
on
Ba
rre
ls
Lower 48Reserves
Lower 48Production
PeakProduction1970
PeakReserves1959
US Production Peaked in 1970
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4
Trillions of Barrels
USGS 5% 2000USGS Mean 2000USGS 95% 2000Campbell 1995Masters 1994Campbell 1992Bookout 1989Masters 1987Martin 1984Nehring 1982Halbouty 1981Meyerhoff 1979Nehring 1978Nelson 1977Folinsbee 1976Adams & Kirby 1975Linden 1973Moody 1972Moody 1970Shell 1968Weeks 1959MacNaughton 1953Weeks 1948Pratt 1942
Source: USGS and Colin Campbell
Published Estimates of World Oil Ultimate Recovery
Different Interpretations of a Hypothetical 6,000 Billion Barrel World Original Oil-in-Place Resource Base
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
USGS Approach 1995 Campbell/Laherrere Approach
Unrecoverable
ReservesGrowth
Undiscovered
ProvedReserves
CumulativeProduction
3,000Billion
Unrecovered
4,200Billion
Unrecovered
50%RecoveryFactor withReservesGrowth
30%RecoveryFactor
40%RecoveryFactorWithoutReservesGrowth
Reserves Growth Adds 10%
Bill
ion
Bar
rels
Campbell-Laherrère World Oil Production Estimates, 1930-2050
Campbell
Production Peak
2004
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125
Bil
lio
n B
arre
ls p
er Y
ear
History
Mean w/ 2% Growth and2% Decline
Mean w/ 2% Growth and10 R/P Ratio Decline
USGS Estimates of Ultimate Recovery Ultimate Recovery Probability BBls-------------------- ---------Low (95 %) 2,248Mean (expected value) 3,003High (5 %) 3,896
Note: U.S. volumes were added to the USGS foreign volumes to obtain world totals.
2016
Annual Production Scenarios with 2 Percent Growth Rates and Different Decline Methods
2% Growth& 2% Decline
2037
2% Growth& 10 R/P Ratio Decline
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125
Bil
lio
n B
arr
els
pe
r Y
ea
r
History
Mean
Low (95 %)
High (5 %)
USGS Estimates of Ultimate Recovery Ultimate Recovery Probability BBls-------------------- ---------Low (95 %) 2,248Mean (expected value) 3,003High (5 %) 3,896
2 %Growth
DeclineR/P = 10
Note: U.S. volumes were added to the USGS foreign volumes to obtain world totals.
2047
2037
2026
Annual Production Scenarios with 2 Percent Growth Rates and Different Resource Levels (Decline R/P = 10)
Annual Production Scenarios for the Mean Resource Estimate and Different Growth Rates (Decline R/P = 10)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125
Bil
lio
n B
arr
els
pe
r Y
ea
r
History
Mean
USGS Estimates of Ultimate Recovery Ultimate Recovery Probability BBls-------------------- ---------Low (95 %) 2,248Mean (expected value) 3,003High (5 %) 3,896
DeclineR/P = 10
Note: U.S. volumes were added to the USGS foreign volumes to obtain world totals.
2050 @ 1% Growth
2037 @ 2% Growth
2030 @ 3% Growth
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125
Bil
lio
n B
arr
els
pe
r Y
ea
r
History
Mean
USGS Estimates of Ultimate Recovery Ultimate Recovery Probability BBls-------------------- ---------Low (95 %) 2,248Mean (expected value) 3,003High (5 %) 3,896
Note: U.S. volumes were added to the USGS foreign volumes to obtain world totals.
Peak in 2037Decline @ R/P = 10
Peak in 2030Decline @ 5 %
2 %Growth
Annual Production Scenarios for the Mean Resource Estimate Showing Sharp and Rounded Peaks
When will Global Oil Production Peak?
Difficult to predict. Depends on
geology and economics.
Best estimates are sometime between 2004 and 2050.