Earthquakeswithin the Cascadia Region

Risks and Opportunities (Result of change, effect, and capability)

Focus on change Primary and secondary

Manipulate the effect Beneficial or adverse

Capabilities

Hazard, disturbance, threats…

Vulnerability, exposure, targets… Strategies made up of approaches and tools

Location Frequency Severity Timing

Systems Built environment

Natural environment Societal, political, and

organizational

Money Power Timing

Seismic Risk

Acceptable Risk: Taking into account the tradeoffs involving cost to the individual, cost to the society, amount of safety increased per unit of additional cost, etc

Risks and Opportunities (Result of change, effect, and capability)

Focus on change Primary and secondary

Manipulate the effect Beneficial or adverse

Capabilities

Hazard, disturbance, threats…

Vulnerability, exposure, targets… Strategies made up of approaches and tools

Location Frequency Severity Timing

Systems Built environment

Natural environment Societal, political, and

organizational

Money Power Timing

Tectonics

Earthquakes

Green = N. Am plateRed = J. de Fuca plate

PNWUrban

Corridor

Portland

Seattle

Hazard -- Shallow / Crustal Most earthquakes are a result of movement in the crust, a relatively thin layer on the Earth’s surface.

• Shallow quakes are usually less than magnitude (M) 7.4.

• Most California quakes are shallow, as were the quakes centered at Vancouver Island, British Columbia in 1946 (M7.3) and Scotts Mills, Oregon in 1993 (M5.6).

• Small shallow earthquakes are recorded every day in Cascadia; damaging quakes occur every few decades.

• Strong shaking is generally 20-60 seconds, although it could be longer in localized areas.

• Damage can be very heavy in the area of the epicenter and along the fault.

• Aftershocks are common and may cause further disruption.

• No tsunami expected, although there could be a local tsunami from landslides or from an earthquake under Puget Sound.

Photo from Port of Seattle

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?

Northern edge of bedrock outcrop

Downtown Seattle, view southeast

North

Deformation front of the Seattle fault

Geologic Geologic MaterialsMaterials

Fill

Till

Dense Sand

Br

Till

Geologic Geologic MaterialMaterial

ss

Fill

Till

Dense Sand

Br

Till

Subduction zone / Seattle FaultEarthquakes

Peak Ground Acceleration

Magnitude 6.7

Modeled faultI

G

D

Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program

Secondary Hazards

• Fire• Explosions• Flooding• Subsidence• Landslide• Psychological

trauma of shake• Disorientation• Uncertainty • Grief

Driving vs. Resisting Forces

Driving Forces

Resisting Forces

1995 Kobe Earthquake

• Moderately Seismic Region

• Higher Population Density

• Over 6400 Deaths• Over 40,000 Serious

Injuries• Over 300,000 Homeless• Substantial Cost ($40B

US)• Direct Economic Loss

$200B US

Tsunami

A subduction zone earthquake would generate a tsunami, which is actually a series of waves. The number of large waves and their height will depend on local conditions. In some cases, waves may be up to 30 feet (10 meters) high,

Risks and Opportunities (Result of change, effect, and capability)

Focus on change Primary and secondary

Manipulate the effect Beneficial or adverse

Capabilities

Hazard, disturbance, threats…

Vulnerability, exposure, targets… Strategies made up of approaches and tools

Location Frequency Severity Timing

Systems Built environment

Natural environment Societal, political, and

organizational

Money Power Timing

Vulnerabilities and Impacts

• Ground response - Earthquakes release energy that travels through the earth in waves. Subduction quakes are richer in long-period waves, which are most dangerous for tall buildings and for long bridges or pipelines. This is a different pattern than in a typical shallow quake, where the greatest effect is on short buildings.

Vulnerabilities and Impacts

• Ground failure - Sandy soils saturated with water can liquefy, or behave like a liquid, during an earthquake. Major earthquake destruction is often found on these soils that are prevalent along rivers, streams and lakes. Liquefaction can seriously damage buildings, bridges, pipelines, and roads by undermining their foundations and supports

Systems Vulnerabilities and Impact

Renton Lifeline Cluster

• Water (blue)

• Wastewater (dark red)

• Liquid Fuel (yellow)

• Power (red)

• Transportation (black)

• High liquefaction susceptibility (pink)

Pipeline floated in 1965 Seattle Earthquake

Hwy 101 corridor / coastWidespread damage and isolation

• To a large extent, each coastal community is isolated for

• weeks, as landslides disrupt many sections of Highway 101.

• Many communities on the coast are devastated by the

• combination of strong shaking, landslides, tsunami waves,

• and fire. Buildings, roads, bridges, and utility lines suffer

• varying amounts of damage. Some are destroyed.

I-5/Hwy 99 CorridorUtilities, transportation, other systems

disrupted

• Throughout this area, electricity and telephone service—both

• traditional and cellular—are inoperable for more than a day.

• Some water, sewer, and natural gas services are interrupted

• because of broken pipelines. Even buildings with no

• structural damage have to close because they do not have

• adequate utilities. This results in lost wages and lost profits.

East of the CascadesIndirect economic effects

• Some residents in the area feel the ground shake, but it is

• only a very weak version of the earthquake felt at the coast.

• In a city like Spokane, 300 miles (500 kilometers) east of the

• subduction zone, the community is affected, even for those

• who don’t feel the ground shake.

Long-term recoveryTransformation after destruction

• We cannot ignore or negate the power of a subduction zone

• earthquake. However, with planning, we can use the event to

• transform our region. For example, Hwy 101 can be rebuilt

• to current engineering standards, rather than continuing to

• be pieced together every winter after damage from storms

• and landslides. This will give the coast a dependable

• transportation backbone on which to rebuild the future.

Stages of response and recovery

Priorities for the first 72 hours:• Save live s, by emergency personnel and neighbor hood residents. Establish

communications when telephone and electrical systems are seriously damaged. Assess bridges, roads, buildings and assess and repair infrastructure (power, water, sewer, gas, transportation) . Remove debris to improve access for responders.

Priorities for the first 30 days:• Provide temporary shelter, food, water, and medical care. Restore electrical power,

particularly to water treatment facilities, hospitals, and emergency facilities. Remove debris; find appropriate locations for dumping material. Inspect buildings, including shoring unsafe buildings, and reevaluations after aftershocks. Repair transportation routes. Begin managing inventory control and distribution .

Priorities for 30 days to 6 months:• Continue damage inspection, aftershock re evaluation, and inspect new construction.

Continue rebuilding infrastructure. Continue temporary shelter, food, water, and medical care. Move those in temporary shelters to more permanent housing, streamline resulting permit and land use planning processes. Manage debris, including sorting and re cycling, prevent / treat health and environmental problems.

In July 2002, the US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) invited nearly 200 people from federal, state, provincial, and local governments to a Cascadia subduction zone earthquake tabletop exercise. Their fore cast of long-term needs included:

Earthquake Scenario

Time of Earthquake

Season Day of the weak Day / Night Time of the day

Schematic illustration of

seismic zonation as the

link between earthquake

risk assessment and

earthquake risk

management.

Risks and Opportunities (Result of change, effect, and capability)

Focus on change Primary and secondary

Manipulate the effect Beneficial or adverse

Capabilities

Hazard, disturbance, threats…

Vulnerability, exposure, targets… Strategies made up of approaches and tools

Location Frequency Severity Timing

Systems Built environment

Natural environment Societal, political, and

organizational

Money Power Timing

Police Powers – 14th Amendment: “…nor shall any State deprive any

person of life, liberty, or property, without due process of law”

– 10th Amendment: The federal government has the power to regulate only matters specifically delegated to it by the Constitution.

• The Commerce Clause: (Article I, Section 8, Clause 3) of the United States Constitution, empower the United States Congress, "To regulate Commerce … among the several States, and with the Indian Tribes.”

– 5th Amendment: says, “…nor shall private property be taken for public use without just compensation

LOCAL GOVERNMENT POWERS

REGULATION:Building CodesZoning OrdinancesSubdivision OrdinancesFloodplain OrdinancesCritical Area Management

ACQUISITION/INCENTIVESFee Simple AcquisitionEasementsTDRs

TAXATIONPreferential TaxationSpecial AssessmentsExactions

SPENDINGPublic Buildings and FacilitiesCapital Improvements Programming

Police Powers

Property rights

Land ownership rights are sometimes referred to as a bundle of sticks with each stick representing a right such as the right to possess, sell, lease property, develop, mine ore, etc. But not all rights out of the bundle held by the owner are owned by the owner. In the United States, no owner ever holds the fullest possible bundle.

Laws

– Statutes – Case law – Regulations “Code of Federal Regulations”

(CFR) – Mandates – Executive Orders – Guidance can be offered by agencies

operating under legal authorities. Often this guidance has the effect of law.

Plans and PlanningPlans and Planning– Comprehensive land use – Hazard Mitigation plans

Building StandardsBuilding Standards– Special building standards – Building codes

Development RegulationsDevelopment Regulations– Zoning ordinances – Overly zones– Bonus and incentive zoning– Performance or impact zoning – Planned Unit Development

(PUD)– Subdivision ordinance

Information and Community Information and Community ParticipationParticipation

– Public information– Disclosure

Environmental ManagementEnvironmental Management – Wetland protection – Stormwater management

Public Facilities PoliciesPublic Facilities Policies– Capital improvements plan

Land and Property AcquisitionLand and Property Acquisition – Acquisition of land – Structural buy-outs– Relocation of existing dev. – Acquisition of dev. rights and

easements – Transfer of development

rights

Taxation and Fiscal Policies Taxation and Fiscal Policies – Preferential (reduced)

taxation– Impact taxes or special

assessments

Capabilities Matrix Discussion

What Urban Design Can Offer to Make University Campuses Safer?

Symposium 2005Best practices in Risk Reduction

For Colleges and Universities

University of WashingtonSeattle, WashingtonJanuary 27-28, 2005

Professor Hossein Bahrainy

What urban design can do?

• Generally– System Redundancy– Restorability– Serviceability– Evacuation Potential– Hazard Potential– Trauma Potential– Occupancy– Coping ability– Critical residents

More Specifically:

General Location

Use micro zonation data / map

Site selection:– Topography– Landslide– Rock fall– Liquefaction– Soil dynamics – Foundation consideration

More Specifically:

Development Pattern/Form

• Decentralized Concentration

More Specifically:

Accessibility Network

Balanced

Network

Alternative access

Alternative

Corridors

Accessibility /

Land use

More Specifically:

Access Network

Distance between

Main Roads

Road

enclosure

Road capacity

and use

Road access Road blockage

More Specifically:

Access Network

More Specifically:

Landuse Pattern

Avoiding hazardous

areas / activities

Decentralized uses

Relatively

independent

clusters

More Specifically:

Special Uses

• Hospitals• Labs• Libraries • Sport Facilities• Hubs

More Specifically:

Activity Centers

Balanced

distribution

of activity centers

Easy access

to centers

Optimum location

of centers

Optimum size

of centers

More Specifically:

Activity Centers

Decentralized centers

Hierarchy of activity centers

More Specifically:

Density

Lower the density

Particularly on the slopes,

Instable soils and

high risk zones

More Specifically:

Open Spaces

Provide open spaces

next to

activity

centers

Easy and safe access

to and from

open space

Decentralized open spaces

More Specifically:

Life Line

Alternative

networkUsing seismic

standards

Decentralized

system

More Specifically:

Architectural Planning of Building`

Plan shape• Simple• Symmetrical

Elevation :

Not too elonged in plan or elevation

No. of Storeys: Uniform and continuous distribution of

strength. Have horizontal members which form

hinges before the vertical members. Have its stiffness related to the sub-soil

properties

Door / Window openings

Size and shape of room enclosures

More Specifically:

Architectural Planning of Building`

Construction quality

Structural design, EQ resistant elements

Additional features