earthquakes and floods pakistan

8/6/2019 Earthquakes and Floods Pakistan

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The last decade has borne witness to the two most destructive natural disasters inPakistan’s history namely the earthquake of 2005 and the floods of 2010. The effectsof these two events have been quite far reaching on the society of Pakistan. However it must be noted that it is not the first time that Pakistan has been devastated by suchnatural disasters. This report will describe the effects of earthquakes and floods on the

Pakistani society by analysing the figures of the few main earthquakes and floods.These figures shall depict the number of people affected, the economic loss and theloss of infrastructure facilities. To take the analysis a notch further this report willdescribe in detail the effects of the most recent earthquake and the most recent floodso as to understand the figures of destruction in greater detail.Firstly the number of lives lost to earthquakes and floods have to be looked at. Thetwo bar charts below show the number of lives lost to earthquakes and floods:



The above shown figures are for the two main earthquakes and six main floods in thehistory of Pakistan. As can be seen in the first chart the earthquake of 1974 was not asdamaging in terms of lives lost as the 2005 earthquake. However both of theseearthquakes were much more destructive than the six floods that are shown in the bar chart above. This can be seen by noticing the scale of the vertical axis for both the

floods graph and the earthquakes graph. The axis on the earthquakes graph shows thenumbers of lives lost in thousands while the axis for the floods graph shows thenumber of lives lost in hundreds. This difference is quite stark and shows that thoughearthquakes in Pakistan were lesser in number than floods but the destruction thatthey left in their wake was much more devastating than the destruction of floods. This

phenomenon can be explained by two factors. Firstly, the earthquakes did not giveany prior warning and hence the people were not prepared at all while the floods weregenerally an annual phenomenon and most of the people affected were generally

prepared for them and hence were able to take pre-emptive measures with regard to it.Secondly it must be noted that earthquakes generally hit mountainous regions whoseharsh topography did not allow easy communication while floods mostly hit he Indus

Basin region which is an easier terrain for communication than the mountainousregions. However it must be noted that the effects of floods are not limited to theIndus Basin only but also affect areas of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan, butthis does not invalidate the earlier analysis because a greater proportion of the areasaffected by floods are the plains of South Punjab and Sindh. However notwithstanding our speculations with regards to the causes for the difference in thedeath tolls for the two types of natural disasters, it cannot be denied that so far Earthquakes have caused a significant amount of deaths as compared to Floods. For example the loss of lives from a major earthquake like 2005 is almost 50 times greater than the deaths occurring in the floods of 2010.Moving on to the number of people affected by earthquakes and floods:



The number of people affected shows the estimated figures for people who incurredsome kind of a loss. The type of loss varies, it can be the loss of life or the loss of kinit can also be the loss of a crop or house or the loss of a cow etc. Looking at the above

bar charts it is clear that the number of people affected due to the floods is far morethan those of the earthquakes. This can be attributed to the fact that the earthquakecauses damage to the areas near the epicentre whereas floods cover a vast area inPakistan. Pakistan has the whole Indus Plain which many times floods causingdamage to all the regions it and its tributaries flow through. Another thing that can be

noted here is the difference in the number of people affected by different floods ishigher when the flood is caused after a lengthy period of time. For example the 1992flood and the 2010 flood were the two major floods that were caused after a long

period of time and the number of people affected by them was also pretty high because of this time difference. This shows that if floods do not come for a few yearsthen people become lax in their pr emptive measures and hence are not prepared for itwhich leads to a greater amount of loss. Hence the foreseeability of the floods, whichdetermines the preparedness of the people, has an inverse relationship with thenumber of people affected. The greater the foreseeability the lower is the number of

people affected. Furthermore, it must be noted that a similar analysis of therelationship of foreseeability and the number of people affected cannot be made for

Earthquakes since there is no way in which they can be foreseen and all of them arrivewith the somewhat similar element of surprise. So the next best alternative is todifferentiate them on the basis of intensity:



The above shown graph compares earthquakes on the basis of the magnitude i.e. theintensity on the Richter scale. It can be seen that the 2005 earthquake had the highestmagnitude and caused the highest damage (shown in the People Affected’s graph).However we can also note that even though the 2008 earthquake has a slightly higher magnitude than the 1974 earthquake still its death toll and damage was comparativelymuch less. This is different due to the fact that the earthquakes took place incompletely different regions. Also the population density of these areas varies. A

region with a higher population density would have experienced greater death loss,injuries and other damages as compared to a region with a lower population density.That is why we may be able to actually draw some conclusions on the basis of magnitude but these conclusions cannot be viewed in isolation and they have to takeinto account the population density of the different regions in which these earthquakesoccurred. Therefore no definite relationship between the magnitude and consequencescan be drawn in isolation as it would be misleading.Having looked at the general trends in the effects of floods and earthquakes this reportwill now look at the effect of the 2005 earthquake in isolation:The morning of 8th October began with a tremendous earthquake with an intensity of

7.6 on the Richter scale. Of all the earthquakes in the history of Pakistan this was one

the most devastating. The epicentre of the earthquake was Muzaffarabad. Thenorthern areas were the most affected areas by the earthquake causing a huge loss of human lives, livestock and property. Not only areas from Khyber Pakhtunkhwa andAJK but also our capital city Islamabad suffered huge losses. The Margala towerscollapsed with 75 apartments. But before going into further detail it only makes senseto visually understand the location of the areas it hit.



The following map shows the intensity of the earthquake with respect to the distancefrom the epicentre.



Overall the extent of the damage caused by the earthquake can be demonstrated in thefollowing table which shows area wise death toll and injuries.

Areas Dead Injured

Muzaffarabad 34,173 56,526

Mansehra 24,511 35,306Bagh 8,157 24,000

Battagram 3,232 3,279

Rawalakot 1,078 2,021

Kohistan 661 2,000

Abbotabad 515 2,500

Army(AJK) 456 766

Shangla 423 957

Islamabad 74 101

Others 58 853

TOTAL 73,338 128,309



Together, there was a loss of public and private assets of about Rs. 135.2 billion. Theearthquake also left behind different types of vulnerabilities. The employment levelfell drastically. The table below shows the changes in employment sector wise in totalearthquake affected area.

Employment bysector

Employment 2005Pre-earthquake

Employment lossdue to earthquake

Percentage Change

Agriculture andlivestock

1,380,000 580,000 - 42%

Industry (mining,manufacturing &

construction)

230,000 150,000 -65%

Services (mainlyinformal)

730,000 380,000 -52%

Other 40,000 20,000 -50%

Total 2,380,000 1,130,000 -47%

The earthquake caused a 42% decline in agriculture and livestock. The rural areaswere most adversely affected in case of food loss because their food consumptionmainly consisted of cereals, pulses and fat (ghee), all of which were destroyed due tothe earthquake.The second largest proportion of population was employed in the services sector,having 35.2 percent of AJK and 24.5 percent of NWFP and a 52% decline in theservices sector. Around 0.96 million people lost employment in these two sectors. Theareas with the most agriculture and livestock loss include Bagh and Muzaffarabadwith a loss of 75% in maize, 30% in rice and 50% in wheat areas and 20% of

livestock was lost in each of these regions. The following table gives details of thecrop damage and livestock lost to the 2005 earthquake:

Province Districts Maize Rice Wheat

area

Livestock

lost

AJK

Bagh 75% 30% 50% 20%

Muzaffarabad 75% 30% 50% 20%

Poonch 40% 30% 50% 15%

NWFP

Abbotabad 30% 7% 30% 10%

Mansehra 50% 15% 30% 10%

Kohistan 30% 10% 30% 15%

Batagram 50% 15% 30% 10%Shangla 35% 10% 30% 15%

To further worsen the conditions, many rural areas were difficult to reach due to thewinter snow which blocked the ways to these areas, so timely aid could not be

provided to these areas.Moreover, another problem with the 2005 earthquake was the destruction of housesand other necessary buildings. This aspect of the 2005 earthquake was by far its mostdevastating feature since the earthquake occurred during Octobers when most of theregions affected were already going through the start of their winter season this meant

that most of the people affected were left homeless and unprotected from the harshelements of nature. Moreover the destruction of property also meant that the



restoration process will be not be smooth and easy rather it was to be a difficulttransition and a costly venture. The following tables show the number of differenttypes of buildings lost:

Given that 75% of the housing units were destroyed it comes as no surprise that manyof the effected people were forced to either stay in tents or migrate to southern regionswere the winters are somewhat milder than those in the north. The destruction of houses combined with the drop in the employment levels and the destruction of cropsand other agricultural facilities led to a large amount of displacement of people withinPakistan which further deteriorated the economic situation in Pakistan.

Now having looked at the 2005 earthquake it is now reasonable to move on to the

2010 floods and the way that they affected the lives of people in Pakistan. The hightemperatures in the early summer of 2010 that led to high melting of the glaciers andthe formation of a low pressure area over the Pakistan region led to a prolongedmonsoon season. Both these factors combined to invite in the high amount of floodingin the months of July and august in Pakistan. It was a flood that was to displace manya thousands of people and leave the entire world stunned by its severity. As per AONBenfield’s report as of late August, at least 1,645 people were killed, over 2,479 wereinjured and hundreds more were listed as missing after the catastrophic floods coveredan estimated 62,000 square miles (160,000 square kilometres) of land –nearly one-fifth of the Pakistan’s entire landmass. But before going into any more specifics of thedestruction the causes of destruction must be looked into. The following table

compares the rainfall in 2010 with the mean average rainfall in Pakistan:

Housing Units

No destroyed Pre Quake total %ageDestroyed

Population Affected

600,152 787,583 76% 3.5

Schools and Colleges

Destroyed/Damaged Pre-QuakeTotal

%Destroyed/Damaged

AJK 3,685 3,879 95%

NWFP 3,984 7,577 53%

TOTAL 7,669 11,456 66.94%

Health Care Facilities

Destroyed/Damaged Pre-Quake Total %age Destroyed/Damaged

574 782 73.4%



Moving on to the effects of the 2010 floods the location of the floods must bevisualised first.The following map shows the regions affected by the floods in 2010:



The following map shows the intensity of the floods in the different districts that ithit:

This shows that most of the Indus Basin was affected by these floods but flooding wasnot just limited to the Indus Basin but the Chenab and Jhelum were also flooded.However it must be noted that the red regions which represent the severely affectedregions are mostly limited to the Indus Basin area. The magnitude of this flood washeightened by the increase in temperature and the increase in rainfall which werehigher than the average rainfall. As of late August, at least 1,645 people were killed,over 2,479 were injured and hundreds more were listed as missing after thecatastrophic floods covered an estimated 62,000 square miles (160,000 squarekilometres) of land –nearly one-fifth of the Pakistan’s entire landmass. Moreover since the flooding was mostly limited to the Indus Basin area which is the agriculturalheart of the country it is goes without saying that the economy of Pakistan suffered

severe damages in its agricultural sector. The following table provided for by theWorld Bank estimates the damage caused to the agricultural sector:



It must be noted that the damages in Sindh were by far the highest this is so becauseSindh is mostly an agricultural area. This figure is followed up by Punjab andalthough Punjab covers a greater area than that of Sindh the damages there are lesser

because the north eastern part of Punjab was mostly unaffected. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and AJK did not have high rates of agricultural loss mostly becausetheir terrain does not allow agriculture to be the most dominant sector which is why,as compared to Punjab and Sindh, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and AJK have relativelylower rates of agricultural damage.However it must be noted that damages were not limited to the agricultural sector alone. Many people lost their houses and many government and non governmentfacilities were destroyed. The following tables provided for by the world bank willshow the



In nearly all of the three tables above it can be noted the Sindh and Punjab were hitthe most. This can be explained by the fact that when the Indus reaches Punjnad it is

joined by all the other rivers that flow in the region of Punjab this means that thealready high volume of the Indus increases and it is this increased volume of water that caused the damage in Punjab and Sindh. While in the areas north of Punjnad theaffected regions were mostly flooded by the excess volume of either Indus or Jehlum

alone. So this shows the disparity in the way the different regions were affected bythe floods of 2010.Having described in detail the effects of the 2005 earthquake and the effects of the2010 earthquake it must be reiterated that he two analyses were not drawn to comparethe effects of the two. Rather they were drawn so as to understand the two major natural disasters in our lifetimes so far. The scope of this report was to explain theeffects of natural disasters like floods and earthquakes on the lives of people living inPakistan with respect to specific figures for the damages and that is what this reporthas tried to achieve. It has tried to compile the data through different sources and triedto explain the relationships and trends prevalent in that data.



APPENDIX:The source for the Bar charts:

1. Earthquake Data

Year Deaths Injured Property Homeless Affected Areas

1974 5300 17,000 - - 97,000 Hazara,

Swat2005 87,000 100,000 171,884

houses4000,000 - Punjab,

Kashmir,

2006 1 22 - - - Mangla

2008 166 357 9897houses

15,000 68,200 Quetta,Ziarat

Taken from:

1. http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/world/events/1974_12_28.p

hp

2. http://www.dripireland.org/earthquakeDetail.php?entid=19

3. http://www.pu.edu.pk/geo/journal/PDF-FILES/Vol_44_117-122.pdf

4. http://www.usaid.gov/our_work/humanitarian_assistance/disaster_as

sistance/countries/pakistan/template/fs_sr/fy2009/pakistan_eq_fs03

_11-25-2008.pdf

http://www.preventionweb.net/english/countries/statistics/?cid=129

2. Floods data:

Year MonetaryLosses(billion Rs.)

LivesLost(No.)

VillagesAffected(No.)

AreaFlooded(sq. miles)

PeopleEffected(No.)

LivesLost

1950

9.08 2910 10,000 7,000 2900

1955

7.04 679 6,945 8,000

1956

5.92 160 11,609 29,605

1973

5.52 474 9,719 16,200 4,800,000

1975

12.72 126 8,628 13,645

1976

64.84 425 18,390 32,000 5,566,000

1977

1,022,000 10354

1978

41.44 393 9,199 11,952 2,246,000

1988

15.96 508 100 4,400

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/world/events/1974_12_28.php


http://www.dripireland.org/earthquakeDetail.php?entid=19

http://www.pu.edu.pk/geo/journal/PDF-FILES/Vol_44_117-122.pdf

http://www.usaid.gov/our_work/humanitarian_assistance/disaster_assistance/countries/pakistan/template/fs_sr/fy2009/pakistan_eq_fs03_11-25-2008.pdf






http://www.dripireland.org/earthquakeDetail.php?entid=19

http://www.pu.edu.pk/geo/journal/PDF-FILES/Vol_44_117-122.pdf







1992

56.00 1,008

13,208 15,140 12,324,024

1334

1995

7.00 591 6,852 6,518 1,255,000

201

0

15000-43000( US

mln$)

1645 4887 160,000 17,600,00

0

Reference:For the first 5 columnshttp://cms.waterinfo.net.pk/?q=fipFor the last column:AON Benfield report.

http://cms.waterinfo.net.pk/?q=fip

http://cms.waterinfo.net.pk/?q=fip

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