earth resources — the looming crunch! by poorna pal

Earth Resources —the Looming

Crunch!

by

Poorna Pal

Earth Resources can be …• Exhaustible or

Nonrenewable– Minerals

» Metallic: Ferrous, Nonferrous (or Polymetallic), Precious

» Nonmetallic: Industrial, Gemstones

– Energy Resources

» Radioactive Minerals» Fossil Fuels:

Coal, Oil and Natural Gas

• Perpetual or Renewable– Direct solar energy

– Indirect effects related to hydrological cycle, e.g., wind, tides, running water etc.

• Potentially Exhaustible/Renewable

– Fresh Air– Fresh Water– Fertile Soil– Biodiversity

Ocean ResourcesOcean Resources

• Resources and manResources and man• The ocean reservoirThe ocean reservoir

– Food resourcesFood resources– Mineral resourcesMineral resources– Energy resourcesEnergy resources

• Oceans and the environmentOceans and the environment– Climate changeClimate change– Environmental degradation and waste disposalEnvironmental degradation and waste disposal

Resources and ManResources and Man

• The Malthusian trapThe Malthusian trap

• The kinds of resourcesThe kinds of resources– renewable versus nonrenewablerenewable versus nonrenewable

• The nature of exhaustibilityThe nature of exhaustibility

SELF-ACTUALI-ZATION

SOCIAL

SECURITY

PHYSIOLOGICAL

ESTEEM

Food is the most basic of allour needs

MASLOW’S HIERARCHY OF NEEDS

Thomas Malthus

increases in geometric increases in geometric progression, the progression, the resources to sustain this resources to sustain this growth do not. Thus, if growth do not. Thus, if population grows too population grows too much faster than food much faster than food production, this growth production, this growth is checked by famine, is checked by famine, disease, and war.disease, and war.

Thomas Malthus (1766-1834)Thomas Malthus (1766-1834)InIn “An Essay on the Principles of “An Essay on the Principles of Population”Population”, , published in 1798,published in 1798, Thomas Thomas Malthus argued that while populationMalthus argued that while population

In an essay first published* in 1798, Thomas Roberts Malthus argued that

This was entitled “An essay on the principles of population as it affects the future improvement of society”

*

“the power of population is indefinitely greater than the power in the earth to produce subsistence for man”.

This should ordinarily signal disaster. Take the case of wolves and moose at Isle Royale National Park, Lake Superior, for instance.

Wolf p

opu

lation

1900

3000

4000

5000

1000

200050

30

40

20

10

1920 198019601940 20000

The sustainable levels forIsle Royale inhabitants

0

2

4

6

1800 1850 1900 1950 2000Source: A. Maddison, Monitoring the World Economy 1820-1992 (OECD, Paris, 1995).

Wo

rld

Po

pu

lati

on

(in

bil

lio

ns)

World’s population, a little over a billion at the time of Malthus, has multiplied over five-fold since then.

0

10

20

30

1800 1850 1900 1950 2000Source: A. Maddison, Monitoring the World Economy 1820-1992 (OECD, Paris, 1995).

Gro

ss

Wo

rld

Pro

du

ct

(tri

llio

n 1

99

0$

)Measured in inflation-adjusted 1990 dollars, world’s total output, now about $30 trillion, was about $700 billion at the time of Malthus.

18000

15

30

45

1850 1900 1950 2000

Rel

ativ

e to

th

e 18

20 l

evel

Source: A. Maddison, Monitoring the World Economy 1820-1992 (OECD, Paris, 1995).

Economy

Population

Clearly, economic growth has been more strongly exponential than that of the demand (population growth) that created it.

0

2

4

6

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Va

lue

s r

ela

tiv

e t

o 1

95

0

Gross World Product

World Grain Production

World Population

0

2

4

61 2 3

World Grain OutputG

ross

Wo

rld

Pro

du

ct

0

1

2

3

Wo

rld P

op

ulatio

n

The growth in world’s grain output has been faster than population but world

economy has growth even faster.

Adam Smith (1723-1790),Adam Smith (1723-1790),

Wealth of NationsWealth of Nations (1776), that every (1776), that every individual in pursuing his or her own individual in pursuing his or her own good is led, as if by an invisible hand, good is led, as if by an invisible hand, to achieve the best good for all. to achieve the best good for all. Therefore any interference with free Therefore any interference with free competition by the government is competition by the government is almost certain to be injurious.almost certain to be injurious.

the British philosopher and economist, the British philosopher and economist, argued, in his celebrated treatise argued, in his celebrated treatise An An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of theInquiry into the Nature and Causes of the

First Green Revolution in this century took place in developed countries

during 1950-70.

First Green Revolution

Second Green Revolution has occurred in developing countries

since mid-1960s.

Second Green RevolutionFirst Green Revolution

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

1940 1960 1980 2000

100

200

300

400 Pe

r Ca

pita

Gra

in A

va

ilab

ility (k

g p

er y

ea

r) W

orld

Gra

in P

rodu

ctio

n (b

illio

n to

ns p

er y

ear)

Despite the tremendous strides in world grain pro-duction, per capita grain availability has remained unchanged since the mid-1970s*.

*Lester R. Brown: “Facing the Prospect of Food Scarcity” in STATE OF THE WORLD 1997 (Worldwatch Institute, 1997)

the annual food production world-wide, including grains, poultry, seafood and meat,• is about 4 billion tons per year, or• about 4½ lbs per person per day.

Currently,

from ~1500 lbs per year in America, to

But per capita food consumption varies, worldwide,

~1000 lbs per yearin Mediterranean/Middle East region, and

about 500 lbs per year in India and South Asia.

An average American diet world-wide is clearly

impossible, without a proportionate

increase in the world’s food production.

5.75 billion 8 billion to 12 billionin 2025in 1995

World populationWorld population

Instead, our realistic option in theimmediate future is

an average Mediterranean diet, world-wide, if the population stabilizesat ~8 billion, but

an averageIndian diet,eventually, as the worldpopulation reaches 12-15 billion.

LessonLesson??Get used to the Indian diet!Get used to the Indian diet!

Alternative?Alternative?Grow more food!Grow more food!

That requires

•Land and•water

Being largelystenohumid as well asstenothermal,agriculturalcrops imposea rather restrictedrange of climatic conditions. Farmland therefore tends to be in short supply.

Mea

n A

nnua

l Tem

pera

ture

(C

) o

0

15

30

Mean annual precipitation (cm)

0 400

Tropical Forest

Des

ert G

rass

land

Arctic and alpinetreeless areas

100 200 300

Farmland

Coniferous Forest(green year-round)

Deciduous Forest(seasonal loss of leaves)

Oceans (71%)

Land(29%)

Most of theEarthiscoveredby water

“...water, water, every wherenor any drop to drink!”

In use

Potentialfarming

Unusable

Potentialgrazing

Cultivated11%

Grazed10%

14%Forests, semi-arid6% Arid

Ice, snow, deserts,mountains (51%)

8%Tropicalforests

Oceans (71%)

Land(29%)

andbarely a fifth of itis available forfarming related activities.

But the supply of land too is limited...

Economic growth exacerbates the demand for water, e.g.,

• with economic growth at 7-10% per year, poultry consumption is rising at the rate of 15% per year in India, Indonesia and China the water demands of this nontraditional industry are only likely to grow;

• we need about 250,000 gallons of water to produce a ton of corn, 375,000 gallons to produce a ton of wheat, 1,000,000 gallons to produce a ton of rice, and 7,500,000 of water to produce a ton of beef.

World Reserves of Nonfuel Minerals

Figure 12.1

12-2 Source: Data from Mineral Commodity Summaries 2000, U.S. Geological Survey.

Pegmatite

Figure 12.2

12-3 Source:Courtesy of Carla W. Montgomery.

Hydrothermal Ore Deposit

Figure 12.4B

12-4 Source: Photograph by W.R. Normark, USGS Photo Library, Denver, CO.

Sulfur Deposition Around a Fumarole

Figure 12.5

12-5 Source: Photograph by J.C. Ratté, USGS Photo Library, Denver, CO.

Distribution of Copper and Molybdenum Deposits

Figure 12.6A

12-6Source: Data from M. J. Jensen and A.M. Bateman, Economic Mineral Deposits, 3d ed. Copyright © 1981 John Wiley & Sons, Inc., New York.

Precious-Metal-Producing Areas in the U.S.

Figure 12.6B

12-7 Source: Data from Mineral Commodity Summaries 1995, U.S. Bureau of Mines.

“Black Smoker Chimney”

Figure 12.7A

12-8 Source: Photograph by W.R. Normark, USGS Photo Library, Denver, CO.

Banded Iron Formation

Figure 12.8

12-9 Source: Courtesy of Carla W. Montgomery.

Rock Salt

Figure 12.9

12-10 Source: Courtesy of Carla W. Montgomery.

U.S. Per-Capita Mineral Consumption

Figure 12.11


Aluminum Consumption Per/Capita

Figure 12.12

12-12 Source: World Resources Institute.

U.S. Share of Consumption of Selected Materials

Figure 12.13


U.S. Mineral Needs Supplied by Imports

Figure 12.14


U.S. Material Consumption Trends

Figure 12.15

12-15 Source: World Resources Institute.

Groundwater Sampling for Mineral Exploration

Figure 12.16

12-16 Source: After U.S. Geological Survey.

Mapping Distribution of Minerals by Air

Figure 12.18

12-17 Source: USGS Spectroscopy Lab.

Locating Possible Ore Deposits by Extrapolation

Figure 12.19

12-18Source: Data from C. Craddock, et al., Geological Maps of Antarctica, Antarctic Map Folio Series, folio 12, copyright 1970 by the American Geographical Society.

Manganese-Nodule Distribution on Sea Floor

Figure 12.20A

12-19Source: Data from G.R. Heath, “Manganese Nodules: Unanswered Questions,” Oceanus 25, Vol. 25, No. 3, pp. 37-41. 1982. Copyright © Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute.

Manganese Nodules off the Marshall Islands

Figure 12.20B

12-20 Source: Photograph by K.O. Emery, USGS Photo Library, Denver, CO.

Consumption Growth of Plastics and Mineral

Figure 12.21

12-21 Source: U.S. Bureau of Mines.

Mining Activities in the U.S.

Figure 12.22

12-22 Source: Mineral Commodity Summaries 1996, U.S. Bureau of Mines.

Collapse of Land Over Copper Mine

Figure 12.23A

12-23 Source: Photograph by H.E. Malde, courtesy USGS Photo Library, Denver, CO.

Subsidence Pits and Troughs Over Coal Mines

Figure 12.23B

12-24 Source: Photograph by C.R. Dunrud, courtesy USGS Photo Library, Denver, CO.

Bingham Canyon, Utah Open-Pit Mine

Figure 12.24A

12-25 Source: Photograph courtesy of Kennecott.

Strip-Mining in South Africa

Figure 12.24B

12-26 Source: Photograph courtesy USGS Photo Library, Denver, CO.

Spoil Banks, Rainbow Coal Strip Mine in WY

Figure 12.25A

12-27 Source: Photograph by H.E. Malde, USGS Photo Library, Denver, CO.

Grading of Spoils in ND

Figure 12.25B


Revegetation of Ungraded Spoils

Figure 12.25C


Reclaimed Portion of Indian Head Mine

Figure 12.25D


Tailings Around Bingham Canyon

Figure 12.26A


Erosion by Surface Runoff Near Bingham Canyon

Figure 12.26B


1900 21002000

What will happen if world’s population and economic growth continue at the 1990 levels, assuming no major policy changes or technological innovations*

* Donella Meadows et al., Beyond the Limits: Confronting Global Collapse, Envisioning a Sustainable Future (Chelsea Green, 1992)

Population

Pollution

Resources

1950 2050

• is a problem if we take

– the Malthusian perspective, that exhaustibility limits socioeconomic growth;

– the neo-Malthusian perspective, that resource exploitation has environmental limits; or

– the Ricardian perspective, that progressive depletion raises costs and lowers quality; but

• poses no problem if we take the cornucopian view, that technological innovation will always provide substitutes and alternates.

The exhaustibility of extractive earthresources

C0

TE

0ekt = S

Depletion time based on the “Limits to Growth” scenario*

*Depletion time or the exponential index, TE, is computed here by solving this equation

Aluminium 2003 2027Chromium 2067 2126Coal 2083 2122Cobalt 2032 2120Copper 1993 2020Gold 1981 2001Iron 2065 2145Lead 1993 2036Manganese 2018 2066

MolybdeniumNatural GasNickelPetroleumPlatinumSilverTinTungstenZinc

2006 20171994 20212025 20681992 20222019 20571985 20141987 20332000 20441990 2022

S 5xS S 5xS

1980 2000 20402020 20601960

Five times the current stock

Current stock

The depletion time of selected resources based on the “Limits to Growth” scenario

Depletion of estimated reserves by the year 2100(H. Goeller & A. Zucker: Science, February 1984)

Cobalt

Manganese

Molybdenium

Nickel

150%

120%

249%

152%

Titanium 102%

Tungsten 236%

Zinc 581%

Reserve inadequacy of advanced material elements beyond the year 2000(S. Fraser, A. Barsotti & D. Rogich: Resources Policy, March 1988)

Arsenic 1.7

Barium 1.3

Bismuth 1.2

Cadmium 1.6

Gold 1.9

Indium 1.4

Mercury 1.1

Silver 1.5

Tantalum 1.4

Thallium 1.9

Tin 0.8

Measured Reserve

World demand

1900 1925 1950 20001975

200

100

Long-run inflation-adjusted world prices for nonferrous metals (aluminum, copper, tin and zinc)

1925 1950 1975 2000

20

Average world crude oil prices

10

OPEC

Oil40%Coal

22%

Naturalgas: 22%

NuclearBiomass: 4%

Hydel, Geothermal,Solar etc.

Oil33%

Coal27%Natural

gas: 18%

7%

5% 5%

6%

Bio-mass11%

World USA

1991 commercial energy use by source*

* Sources: US Department of Energy and Worldwatch Institute

0 20 40 60 80

Industrialsocieties

Advanced agri-cultural societies

Early agri-cultural societies

Hunter-gatherersocieties

Primitivesocieties

Food HomeFarming &

IndustryTrans-

portation

Daily per capita consumption in kcal

Average daily per capita energy use at various stages of human cultural development

28

60

70

80

90

100

1985 1990 199522

24

30

26

The U.S. oil production costs and proven reserves have

been falling

64

70

67

61 11

12

13

14

199519901985

Oil output per well is rising world-wide, though falling in the U.S.

dC(x)dx F(x)

sdPdt

P - C(x)P - C(x)dF(x)

dx

The basic equation for optimally exploiting a renewable resource is*

dxdt

x

F(x)

where

F(x) is the growth curve for stock of size x and dF(x)/dxits marginal productivity or its own rate of return,

F(x) [dC(x)/dx] is the marginal stock effect that measuresincrease in future costs of harvesting due to reduction instock caused by harvesting now,

P - C(x) is the net utility or gain of consuming now, and

s is that resource’s discount rate or shadow price.

*D. Pearce & R. Turner: ECONOMICS OF NATURAL RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT (Harvester Wheatsheaf, New York, 1990)

dC(x)dx F(x)

sdPdt


dx

The Hotelling RuleThe Hotelling Rule* :* :

*Harold Hotelling: ‘The economics of exhaustible resources’, Journal of Political Economy (1931)

dPdt = s

1P

or Pt = Poest

TimeQuantity

Pt = Poest

Po

PB

Resourcestock

T

T

The Hotelling price path

Population or Demand

TotalProduct

StationaryState

ConstantReal Wage

In the long run, economic growth peters out, in the Ricardian* perspective, because rising demand forces society to exploit increasingly poorer quality of resources.

*David Ricardo (1772-1823)

dC(x)dx F(x)

sdPdt


dx

Take the basic equation for optimal resource exploitation:

and set

• dF/dx = -(dF/dC)(dC/dx)

• dC/dx = -, a constant (note that Casx)

and treat [P - C(x)] = /H, where denotes profit and H is the harvest, i.e., this ratio too is a constant.

Then

dF/dC + (H/)F = s/ - (H/) (dP/dt)

so that,

writing Fo = (H)s - (1/) (dP/dt),

we have

(F/Fo) = 1 - e-(H/)C

i.e., F grows asymptotically with C, as thedata on worldwide oil production and pro-duction costs clearly show.

As predicted by theory, the extraction costs indeed rise exponentially

0

20

40

60

80

0 4 8 12 16 20

Cost (US$ per barrel)

1994 World Demand

The Exponential Fit

Also note thatFo = (H)s - (1/) (dP/dt)translates into(dP/dt) - sP = - (Fo + sC)so that, writing Po = (Fo + sC),we have

P/Po = 1 - est

i.e., unlike the Hotelling Rule of rise in the prices, technology induced growth impliesa decline in the prices.

Depletion Time (TE) =

The time when 80% ofthe resource is used up

80%

Time

The depletion curve for a typical nonrenewable resource

1.00

1850

4

Actualproduction

Cummulative production as share of the earlier resource estimate

Cummulativeproduction as the

share of currentresource estimate

0

1

2

3

19501900 2000 20500.00

0.25

0.75

0.50

U.S. oil production (1857-1995)

Fraction used up

Fraction remaining

f

1 - f

eA+Bt=

=

f

1 - fWrite =f1

Then

y = ln f1 = A + Bt

where f1 are the observed data as function of time (t), so that the constants A and B can be found by linearregression analysis.

0

1

2

3

4

1950 20502000

Actual Production

1995 resource estimate1986 resource estimate

Logistic or Hubbard curves for the U.S. oil output and

prospects using

Estimates of the world petroleum

reserves

1,500 2,000 2,500 billion barrels

Numb

er of

estim

ates

0

8

6

4

2

0

20

40

60

1900 2000 2100

Hubbard curves for world petroleum output and prospects assuming

resource estimates of3.0 x 1012 barrels

2.2 x 1012 barrels

1.4 x 1012 barrels

ActualProduction

Wolf population

1900

3000

4000

5000

1000

200050

30

40

20

10

1920 198019601940 20000

Wolves and Moose at the Isle Royale National Park, Lake Superior - an example of “sustainable growth”

FranceU.K.

China

Sweden

Russia

USA

BrazilItaly

Singapore

0.1

1

10

100

0.01 0.1 1 10

Mexico

GermanyIndia Japan

NorwaySwtizerland

Saudi ArabiaNetherlands Australia

Spain

GDP (PPP) in trillion US $

Economic prosperity and energy con-sumption are closely correlated

0.03

0.1

1

3

0.1 1 10

0.3

30.30.03

USA

China

Japan

Russia

GermanyIndia

U.K.

UkrainePoland Canada

Italy

France

Iran

Brazil

MexicoSouthKorea

Australia

SouthAfricaNorth

Korea

Kazakstan

...and so are economic prosperity and carbon emmissions

GDP (PPP) in trillion US $

Thank You!

Carrying Capacity and Sustainable GrowthMoose and Wolves on the Isle Royale National Park, Lake Superior

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

Moo

se p

opu

lati

on

Wolf p

op

ula

tion

Carrying Capacity and Sustainable GrowthMoose and Wolves on the Isle Royale National Park, Lake Superior

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

Moo

se p

opu

lati

on

50

25

Sta

te o

f th

e W

orld

Resources

PopulationIndustrial Output

1,900 2,0001,950 2,1002,050

Food

Oil (39%)Natural gas (24%)

Coal (32%)Hydro-electric (2.5%)

Nuclear(2.5%)

Worldwide commercial energy consumption, 1989*

*Data from World Resources Institute, 1992

earth resources — the looming crunch! by poorna pal

Documents

gallons of water

thomas malthus

economic growth

worlds food production

ton of beef

ton of wheat

ton of corn

ton of rice