early warning system based on the history of disasters in a region victor stefanescu, ph.d.d....
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Early warning system based on the history of disasters in a region
Victor Stefanescu, Ph.D.D.
National Meteorological Administration of RomaniaUniversity of Bucharest – Faculty of Physics
Aim and scope of the project
RAISING AWARENESS
OF THE FORECASTERS
STATISTICS ON PAST
DISASTRUOUS EVENTS IN A COUNTRY/ARE
A
SUGGESTIONS FOR ACTION
AND MITIGATION OF
NATURAL DISASTERS
ENHANCING THE
WARNING AND
EMERGENCY PREPAREDNES
SPROCEDURES
Means to achieve the goals
RAISING AWARENESS
OF THE FORECASTERS
STATISTICS ON PAST
DISASTRUOUS EVENTS IN A COUNTRY/ARE
A
SUGGESTIONS FOR ACTION
AND MITIGATION OF
NATURAL DISASTERS
ENHANCING THE
WARNING AND
EMERGENCY PREPAREDNES
SPROCEDURES
Software system made of interconnected
applications
Means to achieve the goals
Software system made of interconnected
applications
Web application
s
Desktop applications
Relational databases (RDBMS)
Various programming languages
Methodology – based on history of past disasters
Area of interest
Previous,hazardous
context
Current context
Worst case scenarios in themselves
Hazard evaluation
Hazard assessment - Types of events
Heavy precipitation
Flash flood
Flooding of large areas
Information input
Hydrology
Meteorology GIS procedures
Software applications Data aggregation
(RDBMS)
Information output
Software applications Data aggregation
(RDBMS)
StatisticsSuggestions for
action
Output – Information flow
LEVEL 1Current context
Previous,hazardous
context
Qualitative & quantitativecomparison
Forecasters
% Probabilities %
Warning messages issued automatically
Output – Information flow
LEVEL 2
Forecasters
Warning messages
for the general public
Meteorological information
Output – Information flow
LEVEL 3
Software system
Preparedness information
Early warning
messagesfor the
authorities
Information input – Document an event
Information input – Document an event
Information output
Information output
Hazard evaluation of current context
Using a – You Are Here –
approach for identifying potentially hazardous contexts
Hazard evaluation of current context- GEOGRAPHICAL overview -
Counties in Romania with most flash flood events
You are here
Hazard evaluation of current context- TEMPORAL overview -
Monthly distribution of flash flood events
You are here
Hazard evaluation of current context- SYNOPTICAL overview -
Prevalent Grosswetterlagen during flash flood events
You are here
Hazard evaluation of current context- CLIMATOLOGICAL overview -
North Atlantic Oscillation54.8% of the events have occured when NAO was smaller than -1.075.3% of the events have occurred when NAO was in its negative
phase
You are here
Practical use
1. Improvement of hazard evaluation methods, by expanding the set of events that statisics is made upon
2. Expanding the content of hazardous weather warnings with information dedicated to:
- people who may be affected, for instance customized warnings
- people who are involved directly in disaster prevention and mitigation, for instance suggesting evacuation routes
The system is under continual development and testing.
Thank you for attending this presentation
I would like to convey, on behalf of all my colleagues, our sincerest and deepest feelings of solidarity and sympathy with the people of Japan
during their plight, caused by the March 11th earthquake and subsequent disasters.