e r s t e g r o u p b a n k a g oe 0196 0337page 1 july 7, 2009 shaping migration policies for...
TRANSCRIPT
E R S T E G R O U PB A N K A G
OE 0196 0337 page 1 July 7, 2009
Shaping migration policies for economic recovery
Rainer Münz
Seminar: Tracking migration trends in Europe during recession and recovery
E R S T E G R O U PB A N K A G
OE 0196 0337 page 2 July 7, 2009
“Migration Trends, Demographic Outlook and the Need for Smart Migration Policies ”
Rainer MünzErste Group Bank AG, Head of Research & Development
Policy Network Seminar “In or Out ? Tracking migration trends in Europe during the recession and recovery”London, July 7, 2009
E R S T E G R O U PB A N K A G
page 3Policy Network seminar
London 7, 200901960337 / R. Münz
Europe‘s Migration Pattern
E R S T E G R O U PB A N K A G
page 4Policy Network seminar
London 7, 200901960337 / R. Münz
From Emigration to Immigration
E R S T E G R O U PB A N K A G
page 5Policy Network seminar
London 7, 200901960337 / R. Münz Quelle: UN Population Division 2000; Darstellung: Humboldt-Universität Berlin
.
-2 to 0 0 to +2+2 to +5
below -5
-5 to -2
over +5
Europe: From Emigration to Immigration, 1950-1960 (annual net migration rate per 1000 inhabitants)
Source: Eurostat, UN
E R S T E G R O U PB A N K A G
page 6Policy Network seminar
London 7, 200901960337 / R. Münz Quelle: UN Population Division 2000; Darstellung: Humboldt-Universität Berlin
.
-2 to 00 to +2+2 to +5
below -5
-5 to -2
over +5
Europe: From Emigration to Immigration, 1990-2000 (annual net migration rate per 1000 inhabitants)
Quelle: Eurostat, UN
E R S T E G R O U PB A N K A G
page 7Policy Network seminar
London 7, 200901960337 / R. Münz Quelle: UN Population Division 2000; Darstellung: Humboldt-Universität Berlin
.
-2 to 0 0 to +2+2 to +5
below -5
-5 to -2
over +5
Source: Eurostat, UN
Europe: From Emigration to Immigration, 2000-2007 (annual net migration rate per 1000 inhabitants)
E R S T E G R O U PB A N K A G
page 8Policy Network seminar
London 7, 200901960337 / R. Münz
EU27: Immigration Minus Emigration, 1960-2007 (annual abs. numbers)
Quelle: Eurostat
E R S T E G R O U PB A N K A G
page 9Policy Network seminar
London 7, 200901960337 / R. Münz
Today
E R S T E G R O U PB A N K A G
page 10Policy Network seminar
London 7, 200901960337 / R. Münz
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
in m
n
2008
Excess of births
Net migrationgain
Total populationgrowth
80% of Europe’s Population Growth Comes From Immigration …
E R S T E G R O U PB A N K A G
page 11Policy Network seminar
London 7, 200901960337 / R. Münz
… But the Situation Varies From Country to Country (2008, in 100,000 people)
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Ger
man
y
UK
Fra
nce
Au
stri
a
Irel
and
Ital
y
Sp
ain
Bel
giu
m
Slo
ven
ia
Hu
ng
ary
Po
lan
d
Lit
hu
ania
Ro
man
ia
Bu
lgar
ia
Nat. pop. change
Net. migration
Total pop. change
100
,00
0 p
eop
le
Source: Eurostat
E R S T E G R O U PB A N K A G
page 12Policy Network seminar
London 7, 200901960337 / R. Münz
Again More Migration Within Europe
E R S T E G R O U PB A N K A G
page 13Policy Network seminar
London 7, 200901960337 / R. Münz
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007
Employment GDP
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007
Employment GDP
EU10 (CE/SEE)
GDP Growth in Central Europe (EU10) vs. Employment Growth in Western Europe (EU15)
EU-15
EU10
EU15
Source: wiiw
E R S T E G R O U PB A N K A G
page 14Policy Network seminar
London 7, 200901960337 / R. Münz Source: Eurostat, Berlin Institute
Growth vs. Decline in Employment 2000-2005 in %
E R S T E G R O U PB A N K A G
page 15Policy Network seminar
London 7, 200901960337 / R. Münz
0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7%
CZ
HU
LV
SI
SK
PL
EE
LT
Citizens of New EU Member States Increasingly Working in the West(CE work force working in EU 15 in % of total work force, 2007)
Source: WIIW. Eurostat, OECD
E R S T E G R O U PB A N K A G
page 16Policy Network seminar
London 7, 200901960337 / R. Münz
Diagramm 3: Immigration population in the EU-15 by origin (source: Münz and Fassmann, 2004)
EU West18%
Turkey7% other
CEE/SEE7%
EU CE/SEE10%
EU South11%
Africa, Asia, MENA31%
South America, Caribbean
13%
North America3%
43 Million Migrants EU 27: Where Do They Have Come From?
Source: Labour Force Survey 2007
14 million migrants from other EU member states
29 million migrants from (today‘s) third countries
- among them: 19 million from Africa, Asia, South America
E R S T E G R O U PB A N K A G
page 17Policy Network seminar
London 7, 200901960337 / R. Münz
Employment rates by citizenship, 2007 in %
Source: EU LFS, Berlin Institute
E R S T E G R O U PB A N K A G
page 18Policy Network seminar
London 7, 200901960337 / R. Münz
European Migration and the Crisis
E R S T E G R O U PB A N K A G
page 19Policy Network seminar
London 7, 200901960337 / R. Münz
European Migration in Times of Crisis
−Return migration within EU−Additional incentives by EU governments for
non-EU migrants to go back−Fewer remittances−Are we loosing people with talent and skills that
we will soon need again?
E R S T E G R O U PB A N K A G
page 20Policy Network seminar
London 7, 200901960337 / R. Münz
European Migration in Times of Crisis
−So far: More men than women have lost their jobs− In certain sectors and regions: growth of
unemployment quicker among native-born than among foreign-born workers
−Rigidities of the labour markets−Rigidities of the housing markets
E R S T E G R O U PB A N K A G
page 21Policy Network seminar
London 7, 200901960337 / R. Münz
Future Challanges for Europe
E R S T E G R O U PB A N K A G
page 22Policy Network seminar
London 7, 200901960337 / R. Münz
Europe Is Getting Older! Population Structure in EU27, 2008 and 2060
1,00 0,75 0,50 0,25 0,00 0,25 0,50 0,75 1,00
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Age
Per cent
Men (2008) Women (2008) Men (2060) Women (2060)
Men Women
Source: Eurostat, Convergence Scenario, Europop2008
E R S T E G R O U PB A N K A G
page 23Policy Network seminar
London 7, 200901960337 / R. Münz
Development of Labour Force and Old-Age-Dependency Ratio (no migration)
236
214
17034%
52%
84%
120
180
240
300
2005 2025 2050
La
bo
r fo
rce
in m
n
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Ag
e g
rou
p 6
5+
/lob
or
fore
ce
in %
Labor force Age group 65+/labor forceSource: Eurostat, Convergence Scenario, Europop2008
E R S T E G R O U PB A N K A G
page 24Policy Network seminar
London 7, 200901960337 / R. Münz
Development of Labour Force and Old-Age-Dependency Ratio (+50 million immigrants)
236229
207
34%
49%
72%
120
180
240
300
2005 2025 2050
La
bo
r fo
rce
in m
n
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Ag
e g
rou
p 6
5+
/lob
or
fore
ce
in %
Labor force Age group 65+/labor forceSource: Eurostat, Convergence Scenario, Europop2008
E R S T E G R O U PB A N K A G
page 25Policy Network seminar
London 7, 200901960337 / R. Münz
Who Does Best in Migration Policy?
−Traditional immigration countries as a bench mark
−UK−Sweden−Do we need joint action at EU level
E R S T E G R O U PB A N K A G
page 26Policy Network seminar
London 7, 200901960337 / R. Münz
What Do We Need?
−Smart migration policies−A truly open single EU labour market−The willingness and ability to make use of
talents and skills of future migrants −Better integration
E R S T E G R O U PB A N K A G
page 27Policy Network seminar
London 7, 200901960337 / R. Münz
Rainer [email protected]
Thank You!