dynamics of coupled natural and human systems · dynamics of coupled natural and human systems rick...
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DYNAMICS OF COUPLED NATURAL AND HUMAN SYSTEMS
Rick Katz
ISSE & IMAGE
(1) History of CNH Program (2) Argentina Project (3) Present CNH RFP
(1) History of CNH Program
• Biocomplexity in the Environment (BE)
-- RFP (2001): “Biocomplexity refers to the dynamic web of often surprising
interrelationships that arise when components of the global
ecosystems – biological, physical, chemical, and the human dimension
– interact.”
Emphasize research with “focus on systems with high potential for
exhibiting nonlinear or highly coupled behavior with other systems”
-- N.C. Stenseth, K.-S. Chan, H. Tong, . . ., J.W. Hurrell, 1999: “Common Dynamic Structure of Canada Lynx Populations Within Three Climatic Regions.” Science, V. 285, pp. 1071-1073.
Nonlinear time series model for lynx abundance with NAO covariate -- M. Pascual, X. Rodo, S.P. Ellner, R. Colwell, M.J. Bouma, 2000:
“Cholera Dynamics and El Niño-Southern Oscillation.” Science, V. 289, pp. 1766-1769.
Nonlinear time series model for cholera incidence with ENSO covariate
• Dynamics of Coupled Natural Human Systems (CNH)
-- One of several BE topical areas Another: Coupled Biogeochemical Cycles (CBC) -- Integrative elements (common to all BE topical areas) Quantitative approaches Systems approach, nonlinearities, feedback processes Treatment of uncertainty Educational component
-- CNH topical area Focuses on “complex interactions among human and natural systems” Emphasis on “interdisciplinary teams from the natural, social, and
mathematical sciences, engineering, and education” “enhance theoretical understanding of the dynamics of integrated
human and natural systems”
• Example of CNH-funded Project (FY05) -- “Coupling Human and Natural Influences on Coastline Evolution as
Climate Change” (PI: Brad Murray, Duke Univ.) Coastline of Carolinas (including Outer Banks) Coastline evolution: “suprising long-range interactions, with changes
in one location directly affecting distant parts of the coastline” (wave-driven sediment transport) Human response to coastline changes: Stabilize shoreline position (e. g., “beach nourishment”)
(2) Argentina Project
Title: “Understanding and Modeling the Scope for Adaptive Management in Agroecosystems in the Pampas in Response to Interannual and Decadal Climate Variability and Other Risk Factors” PIs:
G. Podesta (Univ. Miami) B. Rajagopalan (Univ. Colorado) W. Easterling (Penn. St. Univ.) R. Katz (NCAR) E. Weber (Columbia Univ.)
• Objectives -- Model impacts of interannual climate variability and use of climate
information within an adaptive management framework
-- Model agricultural decision-making in light of climate variability, climate information (e.g., seasonal forecasts), and other factors (economic, social, technological)
-- Assess environmental consequences of evolution of production systems in response to changes in climate and technology
• Research Tasks -- Climate scenario generation Statistical downscaling Stochastic weather generators
-- Crop-weather modeling
-- Decision-making modeling Expected utility & Prospect theory Conjoint analysis -- Uncertainty Analysis
• Novel Features -- Relationship with AACREA
Asociación Argentina de Consorcios Regionales de Experimentación
Agrícola Non-profit, non-governmental organization (run by farmers in Argentina)
-- Self-reflective analyses Study interdisciplinary collaboration within project
• Own Research Component -- With Eva Furrer (GSP postdoc) -- Improve stochastic weather generators Generalized Linear Modeling (GLM) approach More amenable to statistical downscaling (ENSO) More amenable to uncertainty analysis Better treatment of extremes (potentially)
−2 −1 0 1 2 3 4
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0Minimum temperature at Pergamino
ENSO
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0Maximum temperature at Pergamino
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p_01 at Pergamino
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p_11 at Pergamino
ENSO
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0.34
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0.48
(3) Present CNH RFP
• NSF BE Workshop (2005) -- Future of BE? Homes within existing NSF programs (except for CNH) -- Future of CNH? Commitment to continuation
Should not be assigned to single NSF program