Dynamics of Bangladesh Labour Force

International Workshop on Large Scale National Surveys at Rajshahi University

18-19 October 2012

Kabir Uddin AhmedDeputy Director

Bangladesh Bureau of Statisticskabir.ddd@gmail.com

Dynamics of Bangladesh Labour Force

Abstract: Due to demographic transition in Bangladesh, the labour force of the country is growing rapidly. In the paper, an attempt was made to understand different demographic transition process and its relation to the labour force and the data set covers the period 1950-2050.

www.bbs.gov.bd

Demographic transition in Bangladesh

• Demographic transition is defined as the process of change from a situation in which both birth and death rates are low.

• Demographic transition predicts that as a result of fertility decline there will be a change in the age composition of the population.

• Different population age groups have specific economic characteristics viz.

www.bbs.gov.bd

Age group characteristics

0-14 years Needs investment in education and health

15-64 Provides labour and savings

65+ Needs health care and retirement income

Population pyramid by 5-years breakdown in 1950, 2010 and 2050

www.bbs.gov.bd

Population pyramid by 5-years breakdown in 1950, 2010 and 2050

www.bbs.gov.bd

This figure below shows that the share of the working-age population in Bangladesh will reach its peak in 2035 (70.2%).

Population distribution by age group (% share in population)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

41.2 42.4 43.6 44.7 44.7 45.8 45 43.9 42.3 40 37.1 34.1 31.127.9659939406152

25.2232421381826

23.2264072584011

21.2908294552339

19.4150348772087

17.7233434379766

16.344703703098715.32373312184

54.8 54.1 53.1 52 51.8 50.7 51.4 52.5 53.5 55.6 58.4 61.1 63.766.56883535327968.891353509637469.916808026600470.221038928995370.085520857532669.683414049060868.316153941425666.3168021021081

3.9 3.5 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.6 4.2 4.3 4.6 4.9 5.25.465170706104935.885404352179976.856784714998548.488131615770810.499444265258612.593242512962515.339142355475718.3594647760513

65+ 15-64 0-14

Population by age group using census database (1974-2011)

www.bbs.gov.bd

‘1974 ‘1981 ‘1991 ‘2001 ‘20110

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

48.1 46.7 45.339.4

34.7

48.7 49.9 51.556.7

60.6

3.2 3.4 3.2 3.9 4.7

0-14 Linear (0-14) 15-64 Linear (15-64)

CBR CDR & TFR Trends

www.bbs.gov.bd

1950-1955

1955-1960

1960-1965

1965-1970

1970-1975

1975-1980

1980-1985

1985-1990

1990-1995

1995-2000

2000-2005

2005-2010

2010-2015

2015-2020

2020-2025

2025-2030

2030-2035

2035-2040

2040-2045

2045-20500

10

20

30

40

50

60

6.366.62 6.8 6.916.916.655.995.02 4.1 3.412.872.382.161.981.841.741.661.611.581.58

21 20 18 17

27

15 13 11 9 8 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 9

48 48 47 47 46 4542

3833

2925

21 20 18 16 14 13 12 11 10

TFR Exponential (TFR)

Median age population over time (1950-2050)

www.bbs.gov.bd

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

19.318.918.417.817.617.217.217.718.519.420.822.4

24.226.2

28.330.4

32.735

37.339.4

41.3

Life expectancy at birth in Bangladesh(1950-2050)

www.bbs.gov.bd

1950-1955

1955-1960

1960-1965

1965-1970

1970-1975

1975-1980

1980-1985

1985-1990

1990-1995

1995-2000

2000-2005

2005-2010

2010-2015

2015-2020

2020-2025

2025-2030

2030-2035

2035-2040

2040-2045

2045-20500

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

45.346.948.549.9

36

52.955.658.260.863.565.967.869.470.972.273.474.475.376.2 77

Child dependency ratio (ratio of pop aged 0-14 per 100 population 15-64)(1950-2050)

www.bbs.gov.bd

20250

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

75.278.382.185.986.390.387.583.679.172

63.6

55.848.842

36.633.230.327.725.423.923.1

Old-age dependency ratio (ratio of pop aged 65+ per 100 populations 15-64) (1950-2050)

www.bbs.gov.bd

19501955

19601965

19701975

19801985

19901995

20002005

20102015

20202025

20302035

20402045

20500

5

10

15

20

25

7.1 6.4 6.3 6.4 6.6 6.9 7 6.9 6.8 6.8 6.9 7 7.2 7.1 7.38.5

10.7

13.3

15.8

19.2

23.3

Labour force participation rate by sex

www.bbs.gov.bd

1995-96 1999-00 2002-03 2005-06 20100

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

54 54.9 57.3 58.5 59.3

15.823.9 26.1 29.2

36

87 84 87.4 86.882.5

LFPR Exponential (LFPR)

Total fertility rate VS female labour force participation

www.bbs.gov.bd

1995-96 1999-00 2002-03 2005-06 20100

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

3.45 2.64 2.55 2.46 2.15

15.8

23.926.1

29.2

36

Female LFPR TFR

Youth unemployment rate over time in Bangladesh

www.bbs.gov.bd

1999/2000 2002/2003 2005/2006 20100.00

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

10.00

12.00

14.00

16.00

11.09

6.32

8.117.46

9.52

6.547.19 6.87

15.08

9.8010.71

8.46

4.30 4.32 4.24 4.54

Youth both sex Youth Male Youth Female Unemployment rate

Proportion of own account worker and contributing family helper in total employment (%)

www.bbs.gov.bd

1999/2000 2002/2003 2005/2006 20100.00

10.00

20.00

30.00

40.00

50.00

60.00

70.00

80.00

90.00

57.98 60.46 59.7154.07

63.53

72.5675.98

81.36

Male Polynomial (Male)

Thanks

www.bbs.gov.bd