dry bulk shipping market - global maritime hub · dry bulk shipping market toc europe: bulk ports...

Dry Bulk Shipping Market

TOC Europe: Bulk Ports & Technology

24th June 2014, London

Drewry Maritime Research

[email protected]

© Drewry 2014

2 Drewry | TOC Bulk June 2014

Agenda

• Demand for dry bulk commodities

• Supply outlook for the dry bulk fleet

• Economic outlook and market forecast

• Key Demand Drivers

• Conclusions

© Drewry 2014


Global Seaborne Trade (million tonnes)

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Dry Bulks Other Dry inc Reefer Oils Gases Chemicals

CAGR

00-08

CAGR

10-13

Dry Bulks 5.3% 5.9%

Other Dry 5.6% 2.4%

Oils 2.9% 1.1%

Gases 4.4% 3.5%

Chemicals 5.3% 2.7%

Total 4.4% 3.5%

Source: Drewry Maritime Research, derived from GTIS

© Drewry 2014


Suggested development of dry cargo demand (million tonnes)

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Total Dry Cargo Total Bulk Cargo Total Container cargo

Source: Drewry Maritime Research

© Drewry 2014


Demand outlook: Major bulk

Crude steel production

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

millio

n t

on

nes

EU-27 USA Japan China S.Korea India Others inc Twn

Global iron ore imports

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

millio

n t

on

nes

ROW China EU 27 Japan S Korea


Major seaborne grain exports

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

millio

n t

on

nes

USA Australia Canada Argentina EU Others

Major coal imports

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

millio

n t

on

nes

China EU-15 Japan Taiwan S.Korea India

© Drewry 2014


Minor bulk seaborne volumes

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

mil

lion

ton

nes

Ores & Minerals Minor Ores & Minerals Agribulks Forest Products

Fertilisers Iron & Steel Manufactured Products

Demand outlook: Minor bulk

Total

Minor

Bulk

Agri-

bulks

Iron and

Steel

Products

Forest

Products

Other

Minor

Bulk

Overall CAGR

(08-13) 3.4% 5.2% -0.8% 3.0% 4.3%

Overall CAGR

(13-18) 3.6% 2.4% 3.2% 3.2% 4.2%


© Drewry 2014


-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

billi

on to

nne

mile

s

Iron Ore Coal Grain Minor Bulks

Demand outlook: Total tonne mile demand

Iron ore Coal Grain Minor Bulk

CAGR (10-13) 7.1% 8.8% 3.7% 3.9%

CAGR (13-18) 6.0% 4.5% 2.3% 3.8%

Relevant Vessels

Category

VLOC, Capesize

and Panamax

Capesize ,

Panamax,

Handymax

Panamax

Handymax,

Handysize

Handysize,

Handymax


© Drewry 2014


-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

bill

ion

to

nn

emile

s

Vloc Capesize. Post Panamax Panamax Supramax Handysize

Demand outlook: Tonne mile demand by sector


Handymax Panamax Capesize

CAGR (10-13) 13.0% 5.5% 3.0%

CAGR (13-18) 3.9% 4.1% 4.5%

© Drewry 2014


-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014* 2015 2016 2017 2018

millio

n d

wt

0

50

100

150

200

250

millio

n d

wt

Deliveries Demolitions Fleet (rhaxis)

Fleet CAGR (2008-13): 13.9%

Fleet CAGR (2013-18): 4.6%

Fleet CAGR (2008-13): 13.0%

Fleet CAGR (2013-18): 4.9%

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014* 2015 2016 2017 2018

millio

n d

wt

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

millio

n d

wt


-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014* 2015 2016 2017 2018

millio

n d

wt

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

millio

n d

wt


-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014* 2015 2016 2017 2018

mil

lio

n d

wt

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

mil

lio

n d

wt


Supply outlook: Dry Bulk fleet growth VLOC (>220k DWT) Capesize (120-219,999 Dwt)

Panamax (65-84,999 Dwt) Handymax (40-64,999 Dwt)

Fleet CAGR (2008-13): 6.3%

Fleet CAGR (2013-18): 6.6% Fleet CAGR (2008-13): 12.9%

Fleet CAGR (2013-18): 4.7%


© Drewry 2014


Supply Demand Balance

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Demand % growth Supply % growth Supply Surplus


© Drewry 2014


World economic growth (% change)

-15.0

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Real GDP Trade in goods

Source: Drewry Maritime Research, derived from IMF

© Drewry 2014


Baltic Dry Indices

Source : Baltic Exchange

Baltic Dry Index: Historical

Baltic Dry Index: 2013-14

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

Ja

n-9

6

Jul-96

Ja

n-9

7

Ju

l-9

7

Ja

n-9

8

Ju

l-9

8

Ja

n-9

9

Ju

l-9

9

Ja

n-0

0

Ju

l-0

0

Ja

n-0

1

Ju

l-0

1

Ja

n-0

2

Jul-02

Ja

n-0

3

Ju

l-0

3

Ja

n-0

4

Ju

l-0

4

Ja

n-0

5

Ju

l-0

5

Ja

n-0

6

Ju

l-0

6

Ja

n-0

7

Ju

l-0

7

Ja

n-0

8

Ju

l-0

8

Ja

n-0

9

Ju

l-0

9

Ja

n-1

0

Ju

l-1

0

Ja

n-1

1

Ju

l-1

1

Ja

n-1

2

Ju

l-1

2

Ja

n-1

3

Ju

l-1

3

Ja

n-1

4

Baltic Dry Index Baltic Capesize Index Baltic Panamax Index Baltic Supramax Index Baltic Handysize Index

© Drewry 2014


One year period rates ($pd)

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Handysize Handymax Panamax Capesize


© Drewry 2014


Demand drivers: Chinese iron ore imports

Global iron ore imports, 2010

China

44%

EU 27

10%

Japan

10%

S Korea

4%

ROW

32%

Global iron ore imports, 2018

China

55%

EU 27

7%

Japan

7%

S Korea

4%

ROW

27%

Global imports = 1.4 million tonnes Expected global imports = 2.1 million tonnes


© Drewry 2014


Demand drivers: European major bulk trade (million tonnes)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Iron Ore imports Coal imports Grain exports


CAGR

10-13

CAGR

13-19

Iron Ore -1% 3%

Coal 9% 2%

Grain 6% 2%

© Drewry 2014


Average Haul lengths (nm)

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

5,500

6,000

6,500

7,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Iron Ore Coal Wheat/Grain

Forest Products Fertilisers Iron & Steel

CAGR

00-13

Iron Ore 0.8%

Coal -1.3%

Grains 0.1%

Forest

Products

-0.2%

Fertilisers 1.1%

Iron &Steel 0.4%


© Drewry 2014


Key takeaways for 2014 and beyond

Demand

Dry bulk demand expected to grow at an average annual rate of 4% to 2018.

Iron ore imports to China alone likely to reach 1 billion tonnes before the end of that period.

Global tonnemile demand predicted to grow at almost 5% pa to 2018 as average iron ore haul rates

increase with increases from Brazil.

General dry cargo growth averaged just 1%pa from 2010 to 2013 but is expected to reach 6% pa from

2013 to 2018.

Supply

The dry bulk carrier fleet grew by 11%pa from 2010 to 2013, but the orderbook is shrinking and the supply

side is under control, with expected growth a more manageable 5%pa to 2018.

Outlook

Moodys changed their outlook for the shipping sector from negative to stable for the first time since June

2011.

Drewry believes that shipping earnings will gradually rise (albeit well off levels seen pre-crash) as the

latent overcapacity in this sector starts to wane.

Also new building supply will remain in check by limited quality shipbuilding capacity and increasing

prices.

© Drewry 2014


Thank you.

We have offices in

London, Delhi,

Singapore and Shanghai

[email protected]

market reports and forecasts consultancy services on the shipping and ports industries

freight procurement benchmarking and advice to importers and exporters

specialist research service and forecast for maritime investors

© Drewry 2014


Contact

UK Office Drewry Shipping Consultants Ltd 15-17 Christopher Street, London EC2A 2BS, United Kingdom t: +44 (0)20 7538 0191 e: [email protected]

India Office Drewry Maritime Services Private Limited 209 Vipul Square, Sushant Lok-1 Gurgaon, Haryana-122002, India t: +91 124 497 4979 e: [email protected]

Singapore Office Drewry Maritime Services (Asia) Pte, Ltd. 15 Hoe Chiang Road, #13-02 Tower fifteen Singapore 089316 t: +65 6220 9890 e: [email protected]

China Office Rep office of Drewry Maritime Services (Asia) Office 555, 5th floor Standard Chartered Tower, No. 201 Shi Ji Avenue, Pudong District: Shanghai, China t: +86-2161826759 e: [email protected]

Susan Oatway

[email protected]

dry bulk shipping market - global maritime hub · dry bulk shipping market toc europe: bulk ports...

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