drrm with project noah - pids admin · 2018. 10. 22. · pampanga bulacan 2015 nona debris flows 0...
TRANSCRIPT
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DRRM with Project NOAH
AMF Lagmay
UP Resilience Institute
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Disruptive Technology
•A disruptive technology is one that displaces an established technology and shakes up the industry or a ground breaking product that creates a completely new industry.
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Disruptive Science
•A disruptive scientific system is one that displaces an established methodologyand shakes up the industry or a ground breaking approach that creates a completely new order.
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Key Elements that spell the difference in our DRRM efforts • Probabilistic Risk Assessment
• Open Data
• Hazards-Specific, Area-Focused, and Time-Bound warnings
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AVOIDING DISASTERS
Based on weather forecasts and
near-real time informationBased on awareness of hazards,
education indivuals and access to
accurate hazard maps
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STORM SURGE HAZARD MAP
EvacuationCenters hit by Yolanda Storm
Surge
EvacuationCenters
PRE-YOLANDA (2010)DETERMINISTIC HAZARD MAP PROBABILISTIC
STORM SURGE HAZARD MAP
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70 % of evacuation centers in Tacloban were hit by storm surges
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Brgy Andap
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566 people were placed in an evacuation center overwhelmed by debris flows (This picture) which is a type of landslide
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No amount of accurate warning will work if hazard maps are inappropriate
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Probabilistic Multi-Scenario-based Multi Hazard Map
LandscapeStorm surge Level 1
Storm surge Level 2Storm surge Level 3
Storm surge Level 4
Landslide Hazard5-year rain returnFlood scenario25-year rain returnFlood scenario
100-year rain returnFlood scenarioMulti-Hazard MapMulti-Scenario Based
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Interviews and expert opinion-based susceptibility map
5 –year rain return flood
25 –year rain return flood
100 –year rain return flood
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Open Data
Op
en G
overn
me
nt
Op
en A
cces
s
Transdisciplinary
Multidisciplinary
Interdisciplinary(Scientific, Engineering
fields)
NGA
Open Knowledge
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Crop InsuranceUP Resilience Institute
UP NOAH
Wednesday, September 12, 2018
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Weather Manila Weather Manila
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Saturday Saturday and Sunday
Weather ManilaWeather Manila
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Data from EM-DAT
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Project
1999Cherry HillsLandslides
60 deadAntipolo
2009OndoyFlood
(10.99 m rise in WL)
465 deadMetro Manila
2006Guinsaugon
Landslide1126 dead
2006Durian
Landslide1399 dead
2011Pedring &
QuielFlood
97 deadCentralLuzon
2012Habagat
Flood(9.49 m rise in WL)
0 deadMarikina
(pop. 424,150)
2012PabloFlood
(6-7 m rise in WL)
0 deadCDO
(pop. 602,088)
2012Pablo
Landslide(Debris Flows)
500+ deadNew BataanCompostelaValley
2013Habagat
Flood(8.84 m rise in WL)
0 deadMarikina
(pop. 424,150)
2013Haiyan
Storm Surge2671 dead
Tacloban(pop. 221,174)
1375 dead Tanauan(pop. 50,119)
902 deadPalo
(pop. 62,727)
2014Habagat
Flood(8.74-m rise in WL)
0 deadMarikina
(pop. 424,150)
2014Ruby
Storm Surge0 dead
1664 housestotally
destroyedBrgy. Daram
(pop. 41,322)
2014AgatonFlood
2 deadButuan
(pop. 309,709)
2014Seniang
Flood(7.7-m rise in WL)
1 deadTagoloan(pop. 63,850)
2013Haiyan
Storm Surge31 deadEstancia (pop.62,690)
34 deadCarles
(pop.42,666)
San Francisco3 dead
(pop. 47,357)
2004Dingalan
Landslides(Debris Flows)
135 deadDingalan
(Debris Flows)390 deadInfanta
2008FrankFlood
644 deadIloilo City(pop. 424,619
FAILED DISASTER PREVENTION AND MITIGATION VS. DISASTERS AVERTEDFLOOD LANDSLIDE STORM SURGE FAILED DISASTER MANAGEMENT
DISASTERS AVERTED
DIS
AST
ERS
AV
ERTE
DFA
ILED
DIS
AST
ER M
AN
AG
EMEN
T
2011Sendong
Flood1268 dead
CDO &Iligan
2009PepengFlood
PangasinanLa UnionIlocos SurLandslide
CAR465 dead
2015InengFlood
(7.8-m rise in WL)
Abra River, Ilocos0 dead
(6.2-m rise in WL)
Laoag1 dead
Pro
ject
NO
AH
RA
10
12
1
PD
RA
-ND
RR
MC
RA
97
29
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FAILED DISASTER PREVENTION AND MITIGATION VS. DISASTERS AVERTEDFLOOD LANDSLIDE STORM SURGE FAILED DISASTER MANAGEMENT
DISASTERS AVERTED
DIS
AST
ERS
AV
ERTE
DFA
ILED
DIS
AST
ER M
AN
AG
EMEN
T
2015Lando Debris
Flows0 Dead
Gabaldon(pop. 32,246)
Lando FloodsPampanga
Bulacan
2015Nona Debris
Flows0 Dead
Gabaldon(pop. 32,246)
Lando FloodsPampanga
Bulacan
2015Nona
Storm Surge(3 m height)
Source: Cedric Daep
Legaspi0 Dead
2016Ferdie
SupertyphoonCat 5
Batanes0 Dead
2016Karen
TyphoonCat 4Bato,
Catanduanes2 Dead
From Heart Attackand Epilepsy
2016Lawin
SuperTyphoonCat 5
Lubuagan, Kalinga
5 Dead
Rest of Luzon14 Dead total
in different areas
2016Nina
TyphoonCat 5
Polangui,AlbayFlood2 Dead
13 Dead total in different areas
End
of
NO
AH
fro
m P
DR
A-N
DR
RM
C
2017Urduja
LandslideNaval, Biliran
42 Dead Biliran
14 missing
2017VintaFlood
(9.83 m rise in WL)
CDO0 Dead
2017Vinta
Debris FlowsTubod, Lanao Norte
FloodZamboanga del Sur240 and scores missing
AG
OS
Lau
nch
2018OmpongLandslide
Ucab, Itogon78 and countingOngoing Search
and Retrieval
2018Post-Ompong
LandslideNaga City, Cebu
72 and countingOngoing Search
and Retrieval