drought update september 2005 watf meeting
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Drought Update September 2005 WATF Meeting. Roger A. Pielke, Sr. Colorado Climate Center presented at the Water Availability Task Force meeting, Division of Wildlife, Denver, CO, September 14, 2005 Prepared by Odie Bliss http://ccc.atmos.colostate.edu. July 2005. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Drought Update September 2005 WATF Meeting
Roger A. Pielke, Sr. Colorado Climate Center
presented at the Water Availability Task Force meeting, Division of Wildlife, Denver, CO, September 14, 2005
Prepared by Odie Bliss
http://ccc.atmos.colostate.edu
July 2005
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/2005/jul/extremes.html
Colorado Average Temperatures
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/cag3/co.html
Colorado Total Precipitation
July 2005 Tmax
July 2005 Tmin
July 2005 Precipitation
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/prelim/drought/st005dv00pcp.html
August 2005
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/prelim/drought/st005dv00pcp.html
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/prelim/drought/st005dv00pcp.html
Colorado Precipitation Ranking1895-2005
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/prelim/drought/st005dv00pcp.html
Climate divisions defined by Dr. Klaus Wolter of NOAA's Climate Diagnostic Center in Boulder, CO
Division 1– Grand Lake 1NW
Grand Lake 1 NW2005 Water Year
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Months
Acc
um
ula
ted
Pre
cip
itat
ion
(In
ches
)
30 Year Averages-1971-2000 Max Year - 1984 Min Year - 2002
Period of Record Average - 1941 - 2002 2005 Water Year Accumulated
Division 1– Taylor ParkTaylor Park
2005 Water Year
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Months
Ac
cu
mu
late
d P
rec
ipit
ati
on
(In
ch
es
)
30 Year Averages-1971-2000 Max Year - 1999 Min Year - 1974
Period of Record Average - 1942 - 2002 2005 Water Year Accumulated 2002 Water Year Accumulated
Division 2– CollbranCollbran 2SW
2005 Water Year
0
5
10
15
20
25
Months
Ac
cu
mu
late
d P
rec
ipit
ati
on
(In
ch
es
)
30 Year Averages-1971-2000 Max Year - 1997 Min Year - 1974
Period of Record Average - 1893 - 2002 2005 Water Year Accumulated 2002 Water Year Accumulated
Division 2 – Grand JunctionGrand Junction WSFO
2005 Water Year
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Months
Ac
cu
mu
late
d P
rec
ipit
ati
on
(In
ch
es
)
30 Year Averages-1971-2000 Max Year - 1929 Min Year - 1956
Period of Record Average - 1893- 2002 2005 Water Year Accumulated 2002 Water Year Accumulated
Division 3 – Montrose
Montrose #22005 Water Year
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP
Months
Ac
cu
mu
late
d P
rec
ipit
ati
on
(In
ch
es
)
30 Year Averages-1971-2000 Max Year - 1941 Min Year - 1958
Period of Record Average - 1893- 2002 2005 Water Year Accumulated 2002 Water Year Accumulated
Division 3 – Cochetopa CreekCochetopa Creek2005 Water Year
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Months
Ac
cu
mu
late
d P
rec
ipit
ati
on
(In
ch
es
)
30 Year Averages-1971-2000 Max Year - 1957 Min Year - 2002
Period of Record Average - 1949 - 2002 2005 Water Year 2nd Min Year - 1950
Division 3 – Mesa Verde
Mesa Verde NP2005 Water Year
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP
Months
Ac
cu
mu
late
d P
rec
ipit
ati
on
(In
ch
es
)
30 Year Averages-1971-2000 Max Year - 1941 Min Year - 1977
Period of Record Average - 1893- 2002 2005 Water Year Accumulated 2002 Water Year
Division 4 – Del NorteDel Norte
2005 Water Year
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Months
Acc
um
ula
ted
Pre
cip
itat
ion
(In
ches
)
30 Year Averages-1971-2000 Max Year - 1985 Min Year - 1951
Period of Record Average - 1921-2002 2005 Accumulated 2002 Accumulated Water Year
Division 4 – Center 4SSWCenter 4SSW
2005 Water Year
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Months
Ac
cu
mu
late
d P
rec
ipit
ati
on
(In
ch
es
)
30 Year Averages-1971-2000 Max Year - 1992 Min Year - 1951
Period of Record Average - 1971 - 2002 2002 Water Year 2005 Water Year
Division 5 – Colorado SpringsColorado Springs2005 Water Year
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Months
Ac
cu
mu
late
d P
rec
ipit
ati
on
(In
ch
es
)
30 Year Averages-1971-2000 Max Year - 1999 Min Year - 1939
Period of Record Average - 1893-2002 2005 Water Year Accumulated 2002 Water Year Accumulated
Division 5 – PuebloPueblo WSO
2005 Water Year
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
Months
Ac
cu
mu
late
d P
rec
ipit
ati
on
(In
ch
es
)
30 Year Averages-1971-2000 Max Year - 1942 Min Year - 2002
Period of Record Average - 1874-2000 2005 Water Year Accumulated
Division 5 – Buena VistaBuena Vista
2005 Water Year
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Months
Acc
um
ula
ted
Pre
cip
itat
on
(In
ches
)
30 Year Averages-1971-2000 Max Year - 1965 Min Year - 1902
2005 Water Year Accumulated Period of Record Average - 1901 - 2002 2002 Water Year Accumulated
Division 5 – Canon City
Division 6 – Cheyenne WellsCheyenne Wells2005 Water Year
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP
Months
Ac
cu
mu
late
d P
rec
ipit
ati
on
(In
ch
es
)
30 Year Averages-1971-2000 Max Year - 1909 Min Year - 1956
Period of Record Average - 1971 - 2002 2005 Water Year 2002 Water Year Accumulated
Division 7 – Akron
Akron 4E 2005 Water Year
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Months
Acc
um
ula
ted
Pre
cip
itat
ion
(In
ches
)
30 Year Averages-1971-2000 Max Year - 1915 Min Year - 2002
Period of Record Average - 1906 - 2002 2005 Water Year Accumulated
Division 7 – Leroy
Leroy 5SW2005 Water Year
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Months
Ac
cu
mu
late
d P
rec
ipit
ati
on
(In
ch
es
)
30 Year Averages-1971-2000 Max Year - 1995 Min Year - 1894
Period of Record Average - 1890-2002 2005 Water Year Accumulated 2002 Water Year Accumulated
Division 7 – Burlington
Division 8 – Boulder Boulder
2005 Water Year
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Months
Ac
cu
mu
late
d P
rec
ipit
ati
on
(in
ch
es
)
2005 Water Year 30 Year Averages-1971-2000 Max Year - 1995
Min Year - 1966 Period of Record Average - 1894-2002 2002 Water Year
Division 8 – Cheesman Cheesman
2005 Water Year
0
5
10
15
20
25
Months
Ac
cu
mu
late
d P
rec
ipit
ato
n (
Inc
he
s)
30 Year Averages-1971-2000 Max Year - 1970 Min Year - 2002
Period of Record Average - 1904 - 2002 2005 Water Year
Division 8 – Kassler Kassler
2005 Water Year
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Months
Ac
cu
mu
late
d P
rec
ipit
ati
on
(In
ch
es
)
30 Year Averages-1971-2000 Max Year - 1915 Min Year - 1956
Period of Record Average - 1899 - 2002 2005 Water Year Accumulated 2002 Water Year Accumulated
Division 8 – Fort Collins
Fort Collins2005 Water Year
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Month
Ac
cu
mu
late
d P
rec
ipit
ati
on
(in
ch
es
)
30 Year Averages-1971-2000 Max Year - 1961 Min Year - 1966
Period of Record Average - 1890 - 2002 2005 Water Year 2002 WY
August 2005 maximum temperatures
August 2005MaximumTemperature
http://www.ocs.oregonstate.edu/prism
August 2005 minimum temperatures
http://www.ocs.oregonstate.edu/prism
August 2005MinimumTemperature
August 2005 Average Temperatures
August 2005 precipitation
August 2005Precipitation
http://www.ocs.oregonstate.edu/prism
WY 2005 precipitation
3 Month SPI
12 Month SPI
48 Month SPI
Fraction of Colorado in Drought
Projected Conditions at 0.2 Probability Level 12 Month SPI at 6 months
Projected Conditions at 0.5 Probability Level 12 Month SPI at 6 months
Projected Conditions at 0.8 Probability Level 12 Month SPI at 6 months
Projected Conditions at 0.2 Probability Level 48 Month SPI at 12 months
Projected Conditions at 0.5 Probability Level 48 Month SPI at 12 months
Projected Conditions at 0.8 Probability Level 48 Month SPI at 12 months
Drought Monitor Map
July 2005 Heat Wave
Highest maximum temperature recorded in Colorado in July 2005 for selected stations.
Colorado Springs, DIA, Grand Junction and Fort Collins daily maximum and minimum temperatures for July 2005.
July 2005 Daily Maximum and Mininum Temperatures for Selected Stations
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
Day
Tem
per
atu
re (d
eg F
)
Colo Spr Tmax Colo Spr Tmin DIA Tmax DIA Tmin Grand Jct Tmax Grand Jct Tmin Ft Collins Tmax Ft Collins Tmin
Denver Intl AP July 2005 Records
July 2005 New Record Old Record Year Last Occurred
16th 102 101 2003
19th 101 100 1934
20th 105 102 1939
21st 104 100 1981
22nd 102 100 1931
23rd 102 101 1910
Data Source: NWS F-6 form
Table 1. Average maximum, minimum and mean temperatures for July 2005 and their rank for the period-of-record.
Table 1 continued
Table 2. Number of Days that the July 2005 maximum temperature was greater than or equal to 90F and 100F and their rank for the period-of-record.
Table 3. July 2005 highest maximum temperature, the rank for the period-of-record, the date it occurred, the highest ever July temperature and the year it occurred, and the absolute maximum temperature and the date.
Table 3. continued
Denver’s 5-day running average if the average temperature was greater than or equal to 83F or greater. Plotted by decade.
Denver Stapleton/City combined5-day running average if Tave .ge. 83 deg F
74
76
78
80
82
84
86
1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010
Year
Tem
per
atu
re (
deg
F)
1930s 1950s 1960s 1980s 1990s 2000s
Edgewater and Lakewood 5-day running average for average temperature greater than or equal to 80 deg F.
Edgewater / Lakewood5-day running average where Tave .ge. 80 deg F
70
72
74
76
78
80
82
84
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Te
mp
era
ture
(d
eg
F)
1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s
Fort Collins 5-day running average for average temperature greater than or equal to 80 deg F. The Bus Transfort construction begin in 2002 next to this station.
Fort Collins5-day running average if Tave .ge. 80 deg F
68
70
72
74
76
78
80
82
1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Year
Tem
per
atu
re (
deg
F)
1920s 1930s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1990s 2000s
Hourly data from automated weather stations at FCL and DIA are used to pick and calculate the highest air temperature and effective temperature for each day in July 2002. In all three months, the average high air temperature is higher at DIA, while the average high effective temperature is higher at FCL.
Daily High T and TE -- July 2002
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
7/1 7/6 7/11 7/16 7/21 7/26 7/31
°F
15.6
20.6
25.6
30.6
35.6
40.6
45.6
50.6
55.6
60.6
65.6
°C
FCL T Ave Hi T: 90.0F (32.2C) FCL TE Ave Hi TE: 129.0F (53.9C) DIA T Ave Hi T: 90.7F (32.6C) DIA TE Ave Hi TE: 125.6F (52.0C)
Hourly data from automated weather stations at FCL and DIA are used to pick and calculate the highest air temperature and effective temperature for each day in July 2003. In all three months, the average high air temperature is higher at DIA, while the average high effective temperature is higher at FCL.
Daily High T and TE -- July 2003
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
7/1 7/6 7/11 7/16 7/21 7/26 7/31
°F
15.6
20.6
25.6
30.6
35.6
40.6
45.6
50.6
55.6
60.6
65.6
°C
FCL T Ave Hi T: 90.8F (32.7C) FCL TE Ave Hi TE: 131.6F (55.3C) DIA T Ave Hi T: 91.8F (33.2C) DIA TE Ave Hi TE: 129.9F (54.4C)
Hourly data from automated weather stations at FCL and DIA are used to pick and calculate the highest air temperature and effective temperature for each day in July 2005. In all three months, the average high air temperature is higher at DIA, while the average high effective temperature is higher at FCL.
Daily High T and TE -- July 2005
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
7/1 7/6 7/11 7/16 7/21 7/26 7/31
°F
15.6
20.6
25.6
30.6
35.6
40.6
45.6
50.6
55.6
60.6
65.6
°C
FCL T Ave Hi T: 89.6F (32.0C) FCL TE Ave Hi TE: 129.3F (54.1C) DIA T Ave Hi T: 93.1F (33.9C) DIA TE Ave Hi TE: 121.4F (49.7C)
A daily composite of air temperature (red line) and effective temperature (blue line). The composite is created by averaging hourly data during the five days with highest air temperature in each of the three years considered in this section – fifteen days total. This shows the pattern of heating and cooling on the station’s extreme hottest days. Note how the effective temperature peaks approximately four hours before the air temperature peaks. Typically, the hottest days are characterized by exceptionally low relative humidity in the late afternoon, which explains the premature drop in effective temperature.
Composite Diurnal Cycle of T and TE
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
0 4 8 12 16 20 0
Local Time
Air
Te
mp
era
ture
(°F
)
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
135
140
0 4 8 12 16 20 0
Eff
ec
tiv
e T
em
pe
ratu
re (
°F)
Colorado Climate CenterColorado State University
Data and Power Point Presentations available for downloading
http://ccc.atmos.colostate.edu– click on “Drought” – then click on “Presentations”