drought planning and management in the júcar river basin, …...cofrentes nuclear p. 20 hm 3 /year...

50
1 International Drought Symposium – Integrating Science and Policy Riverside, CA.-- 24-26 March 2010 Drought planning and management in the Júcar river basin, Spain by Andreu, J. 1 , J. Ferrer-Polo 2 , M. A. Pérez 1 , and A. Solera 1 1 Water Resources Engineering Research Group, Institute for Water and Environmental Engineering (IIAMA), Universidad Politécnica de Valencia (SPAIN) 2 Confederación Hidrográfica del Júcar (CHJ), Valencia, Spain e-mail: [email protected] www.upv.es/iiama/ www.upv.es/aquatool/ www.chj.es

Upload: others

Post on 21-Jul-2021

1 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: Drought planning and management in the Júcar river basin, …...Cofrentes Nuclear P. 20 Hm 3 /year BENAGEBER Reservoir 221 Hm 3 (1 Hm3 = 1 Gl)=1 MCM 13 Risk of drying the Júcar river

1

International Drought Symposium – Integrating Science and Policy Riverside, CA.-- 24-26 March 2010

Drought planning and management in the Júcar river basin, Spain

by Andreu, J.1, J. Ferrer-Polo2, M. A. Pérez1, and A. Solera1

1Water Resources Engineering Research Group, Institute for Water and Environmental Engineering (IIAMA), Universidad Politécnica de

Valencia (SPAIN)2Confederación Hidrográfica del Júcar (CHJ), Valencia, Spain

e-mail: [email protected]/iiama/ www.upv.es/aquatool/www.chj.es

Page 2: Drought planning and management in the Júcar river basin, …...Cofrentes Nuclear P. 20 Hm 3 /year BENAGEBER Reservoir 221 Hm 3 (1 Hm3 = 1 Gl)=1 MCM 13 Risk of drying the Júcar river

2

SPAIN

Water adm. at basin scale since 1927: Basin agencies

Users represented at the Agencies Decision Boards: active participation

GALICIA

PRINCIPADO DEASTURIAS

CANTABRIA

PAISVASCO

NAVARRA

ARAGONCATALUÑA

VALENCIACASTILLA-LA MANCHA

MADRID

EXTREMADURA

ANDALUCIA

MURCIA

BALEARES

CANARIAS

LA RIOJA

CEUTA

MELILLA

CASTILLA-LEON

Júcar

Valencia

Page 3: Drought planning and management in the Júcar river basin, …...Cofrentes Nuclear P. 20 Hm 3 /year BENAGEBER Reservoir 221 Hm 3 (1 Hm3 = 1 Gl)=1 MCM 13 Risk of drying the Júcar river

3

Júcar River Basin Authority (CHJ)

Total demand by uses

79%

17%

3%

1% 0% IrrigationUrban supplyIndustrial supplyCattleRecreation

Total Demand by source of water

42%

52%

4%

0%

2%

Surface water

Groundwater

Direct WasteWaterReuseDesalination

Imports (MCT)

Surface (km2) 43.000Permanent population 4.792.528Equivalent population due to tourism

367.322

Irrigation surface (ha) 347.275Water demand (hm3/year) (Hm3/year = Gigaliters/year)

3.172

(1 Hm3 = 1 Gl)=1 MCM

Page 4: Drought planning and management in the Júcar river basin, …...Cofrentes Nuclear P. 20 Hm 3 /year BENAGEBER Reservoir 221 Hm 3 (1 Hm3 = 1 Gl)=1 MCM 13 Risk of drying the Júcar river

4

Sistema Demanda 2015Recurso en

régimen natural

Demanda / Recurso régimen

natural

Cenia-Maestrazgo 117 312 0,38

Mijares 300 531 0,56

Palancia 101 117 0,87

Turia 666 496 1,34

Júcar 1.546 1.671 0,93

Serpis 125 190 0,66

Marina Alta 94 222 0,42

Marina Baja 75 74 1,01

Vinalopó -Alacantí 256 97 2,64

Total DHJ 3.280 3.711 0,88

WATER SCARCITY INDEX (WEI)

+HIGHEST VARIABILITY IN EUROPE(IN SPACE AND TIME): DROUGHT PRONE

ARIDITY INDEX (P/PET) (Climate)

HALF of THE AREA is SEMIARID

02004006008001000120014001600180020002200240026002800

1940

/41

1942

/43

1944

/45

1946

/47

1948

/49

1950

/51

1952

/53

1954

/55

1956

/57

1958

/59

1960

/61

1962

/63

1964

/65

1966

/67

1968

/69

1970

/71

1972

/73

1974

/75

1976

/77

1978

/79

1980

/81

1982

/83

1984

/85

1986

/87

1988

/89

1990

/91

1992

/93

1994

/95

1996

/97

1998

/99

2000

/01

2002

/03

2004

/05

2006

/07

año

hm3

Pday/Pyear (%)

Page 5: Drought planning and management in the Júcar river basin, …...Cofrentes Nuclear P. 20 Hm 3 /year BENAGEBER Reservoir 221 Hm 3 (1 Hm3 = 1 Gl)=1 MCM 13 Risk of drying the Júcar river

5

2 vía cable

2 vía satelite

Punto de ControlPunto de Concentración

6 vía radio

C.P.CTratamiento,

presentación yalmacenamientode la información

Pluviómetro

Red p

rimar

ia

Cable

8 repetidores

RedSecundaria

vía radio(25

repetidores)

Captación Registro Transmisión Agrupación Transmisión Adquisición

Aforo encanal o río

Embalse

AUTOMATIC REAL TIME DATA ACQUISITION SYSTEMS

-Meteorology, Hydrology, State of system elements, Water quality

Page 6: Drought planning and management in the Júcar river basin, …...Cofrentes Nuclear P. 20 Hm 3 /year BENAGEBER Reservoir 221 Hm 3 (1 Hm3 = 1 Gl)=1 MCM 13 Risk of drying the Júcar river

6

Drought monitoring: indicators used

Use of different types of indicators:1) Meteorological drought (SPI)2) Agricultural drought (Palmer)3) Hydrological drought (historical position)4) ….

And use of PRACTICAL institutional indicators for OPERATIONAL DROUGHT

CHJ Operational Drought Indicators

Page 7: Drought planning and management in the Júcar river basin, …...Cofrentes Nuclear P. 20 Hm 3 /year BENAGEBER Reservoir 221 Hm 3 (1 Hm3 = 1 Gl)=1 MCM 13 Risk of drying the Júcar river

7

CHJ-ODI Evaluation and Threshold Definition (Calibrated using simulation models)

0.5

VmaxVmin0

0.5

1

Vmed

Weighted combinations of standardized values of key variables related to water availability:

Status Index Status0,75 – 1,00 NORMAL

0,50 – 0,75

0,30 – 0,50 PRE-ALERT

0,15 – 0,30 ALERT

0,00 – 0,15 EMERG.

34 individual indicators:• 9 reservoir volume• 9 piezometric level• 9 fluvial networks• 7 pluviometers

SISTEMA EXPLOTACIÓN Ind Estado 31/03/2008

ÍNDICE SIST. EXPLOTACIÓN

1 0,99 2 0,52 3

Cenia-Maestrazgo 0,74

0,66

4 0,39 5 0,82 6

Mijares-Plana de Castellón 0,66

0,67

7 0,35 8 0,70 9

Palancia-Los Valles 0,61

0,57

10 0,32 11 0,10 12 0,04 13 0,19 14 0,39 15 0,45 16

Turia

0,53

0,33

17 0,00 18 0,00 19 0,35 20 0,14 21 0,20 22 0,58 23 0,16 24 0,18 25 0,73 26 0,14 27 0,58 28

Júcar

0,82

0,14

29 0,53 30 Serpis 0,80 0,72

31 Marina Alta 0,82 0,82 32 Marina Baja 0,88 0,88 33 0,79 34 Vinalopó-Alacantí 0,70 0,73

Page 8: Drought planning and management in the Júcar river basin, …...Cofrentes Nuclear P. 20 Hm 3 /year BENAGEBER Reservoir 221 Hm 3 (1 Hm3 = 1 Gl)=1 MCM 13 Risk of drying the Júcar river

8

Drought indicators JRBA (31 March 2008).

Status Index ValuesScenario Inputs Scenario outputs

During Condition Condition Output Scenario

Normal - ≥ 0,50 -

Pre-alert 3 months in a row ]0,5 - 0,30] 3 consecutive months

Ie ≥ 0,50 Normal

2 consecutive months Ie ≥ 0,50Alert 2 months

in a row ]0,3 - 0,15]6 consecutive months

Ie ]0,5 - 0,30]

Pre-alert

2 consecutive monthsIe ]0,5 - 0,30]Emergency 2 months

in a row < 0,156 consecutive months

Ie ]0,3 - 0,15]

Alert

Drought status indicator per exploitation system

SCENARIOSSystem Risk Valuation Scenario

Cenia-Maestrazgo LOW NORMALMijares-Plana de Castellón LOW NORMAL

Palancia-Los Valles LOW NORMALTuria MEDIUM PRE-ALERTJúcar VERY HIGH EMERGENCYSerpis LOW NORMAL

Marina Alta VERY LOW NORMALMarina Baja VERY LOW NORMAL

Vinalopó-Alacantí VERY LOW NORMAL

Sistema Jun Jul Ago Sep Oct Nov Dic Ene Feb MarCenia-Maestrazgo 0,67 0,63 0,61 0,64 0,7 0,59 0,74 0,69 0,66 0,66

Mijares-Plana de Castellón 0,66 0,66 0,65 0,72 0,73 0,66 0,68 0,67 0,66 0,67Palancia-Los Valles 0,66 0,61 0,55 0,64 0,67 0,59 0,68 0,61 0,58 0,57

Turia 0,44 0,39 0,38 0,4 0,44 0,45 0,43 0,39 0,37 0,34Júcar 0,29 0,26 0,23 0,23 0,22 0,19 0,16 0,14 0,14 0,14Serpis 0,41 0,43 0,45 0,5 0,69 0,63 0,78 0,70 0,67 0,72

Marina Alta 0,51 0,51 0,55 0,69 1,00 0,92 0,96 0,89 0,90 0,82Marina Baja 0,80 0,80 0,80 0,85 1,00 1,00 1,00 0,92 0,92 0,88

Vinalopó-Alacantí 0,74 0,73 0,83 0,95 1,00 0,86 0,87 0,80 0,82 0,73

Page 9: Drought planning and management in the Júcar river basin, …...Cofrentes Nuclear P. 20 Hm 3 /year BENAGEBER Reservoir 221 Hm 3 (1 Hm3 = 1 Gl)=1 MCM 13 Risk of drying the Júcar river

9

Spanish Global System of Operational Drought Indicators (monthly elabored since Dec.2005 and published in the MMARM web page)

All basins in Spain have SPECIAL DROUGHT PLANS since 2007Based on INDICATORS defining the SCENARIO and SETS OF MEASURES for each scenario

Page 10: Drought planning and management in the Júcar river basin, …...Cofrentes Nuclear P. 20 Hm 3 /year BENAGEBER Reservoir 221 Hm 3 (1 Hm3 = 1 Gl)=1 MCM 13 Risk of drying the Júcar river

10

2005-2008 DROUGHT

JUCAR, TURIA and PALANCIA Systems

Page 11: Drought planning and management in the Júcar river basin, …...Cofrentes Nuclear P. 20 Hm 3 /year BENAGEBER Reservoir 221 Hm 3 (1 Hm3 = 1 Gl)=1 MCM 13 Risk of drying the Júcar river

11

Main Agricultural Water Uses

Júcar-Turia Canal irrigated area60 Hm3/year

Júcar Traditional

irrigated area500 Hm3/year

La Mancha irrigated area

460 Hm3/year

Turia Traditiona irrigated

area120 Hm3/year

Benageber Canal irrigated area60 Hm3/year

(1 Hm3 = 1 Gl)=1 MCM

Page 12: Drought planning and management in the Júcar river basin, …...Cofrentes Nuclear P. 20 Hm 3 /year BENAGEBER Reservoir 221 Hm 3 (1 Hm3 = 1 Gl)=1 MCM 13 Risk of drying the Júcar river

12

Main reservoirs & Urban Water Uses

ALARCÓN Reservoir

1112 Hm3CONTRERAS Reservoir

444 Hm3

TOUS Reservoir

379 Hm3

Valencia Metr. urban

120 Hm3/year

Sagunto urban

30 Hm3/year

Albacete urban 30 Hm3/year

Cofrentes Nuclear P.

20 Hm3/year

BENAGEBER Reservoir

221 Hm3

(1 Hm3 = 1 Gl)=1 MCM

Page 13: Drought planning and management in the Júcar river basin, …...Cofrentes Nuclear P. 20 Hm 3 /year BENAGEBER Reservoir 221 Hm 3 (1 Hm3 = 1 Gl)=1 MCM 13 Risk of drying the Júcar river

13

Risk of drying the Júcar river in Albacete due to losses to aquifer (inverted relathionship due to overdrafting)

Risk of insuficient inflows toAlbufera Lake & Wetland

Risk of Poor water quality and low flows in the lower Júcar river.

Júcar River Basin

Main Environmental Issues

Page 14: Drought planning and management in the Júcar river basin, …...Cofrentes Nuclear P. 20 Hm 3 /year BENAGEBER Reservoir 221 Hm 3 (1 Hm3 = 1 Gl)=1 MCM 13 Risk of drying the Júcar river

14

JRB Natural discharge up to Tous Reservoir

0200400600800

1000120014001600180020002200240026002800

1940

/41

1942

/43

1944

/45

1946

/47

1948

/49

1950

/51

1952

/53

1954

/55

1956

/57

1958

/59

1960

/61

1962

/63

1964

/65

1966

/67

1968

/69

1970

/71

1972

/73

1974

/75

1976

/77

1978

/79

1980

/81

1982

/83

1984

/85

1986

/87

1988

/89

1990

/91

1992

/93

1994

/95

1996

/97

1998

/99

2000

/01

2002

/03

2004

/05

2006

/07

año

hm3

Annual values Avegare contribution of historical Natural Regime

Average since 1980 in Natural RegimeThe indicators pointed out a severe meteorological drought and increasing risks of an operative drought: first measures were applied and claimed, including the OFFICIAL DROUGHT DECLARATIONFour consecutive years of intense HYDROLOGICAL DROUGHT

2004/05: Third lower (40%)

2005/06:Worse in rec. History (30%)

2006/07: fourth lower

Sudden Change in mean value Climate Change?

Page 15: Drought planning and management in the Júcar river basin, …...Cofrentes Nuclear P. 20 Hm 3 /year BENAGEBER Reservoir 221 Hm 3 (1 Hm3 = 1 Gl)=1 MCM 13 Risk of drying the Júcar river

16

Permanent Drought Commission: RD 1265/2005(Delegate board fom the Governing Board of CHJ (JRBA))Entitled to vote (13): President of JRBA JRBA (3) : Commissary, Technical Director, Head of Planning

Office. Spanish Ministries (2): Industry (IGME) and Environment Autonomous Regionel Governments (4)Urban users representative (Valencia Metr. Area W. Supply)Agricultural users representative (Real del Júcar Ditch). Industrial users representative (Iberdrola, S.A.)In advisory capacity (4)• Environmental Interest Defence: Agró• Entrepreneurial Representation: AVA• Labor Unions representation: CCOO• Local Entities representative: Albacete municipalityNumerous “guests”

Page 16: Drought planning and management in the Júcar river basin, …...Cofrentes Nuclear P. 20 Hm 3 /year BENAGEBER Reservoir 221 Hm 3 (1 Hm3 = 1 Gl)=1 MCM 13 Risk of drying the Júcar river

1) 1st December 20052) 21st December 2005 3) 21st January 20064) 13th February 20065) 15th March 2006 6) 18th April 2006 7) 22nd May 2006 8) 27th June 2006 9) 19th July 2006 10) 24th August 2006 11) 12th September 2006 12) 28th September 2006 13) 15th November 2006 14) 15th December 200615) 15th February 200716) 20th April 200717) 18th July 200718) 17th September 200719) 31st October 200720) 12th December 200721) 15th February 200822) 14th March 200823) 18th April 200824) 12th June 200825) 16th September 200826) 17th October 200827) 22th December 200828) 12th March 2009

PDC Meeting Calendar

Page 17: Drought planning and management in the Júcar river basin, …...Cofrentes Nuclear P. 20 Hm 3 /year BENAGEBER Reservoir 221 Hm 3 (1 Hm3 = 1 Gl)=1 MCM 13 Risk of drying the Júcar river

18

Allow to identify droughts and to compare situations (s-t)Percentage of normal cumulative rainfall

Available resource / normal (average) resourceAdvantage: easy to understand

PDC PROCEDURE:METEO & HYDROLOGICAL INFORMATION+ DROUGHT INDEXES

Deviation from historical average

Page 18: Drought planning and management in the Júcar river basin, …...Cofrentes Nuclear P. 20 Hm 3 /year BENAGEBER Reservoir 221 Hm 3 (1 Hm3 = 1 Gl)=1 MCM 13 Risk of drying the Júcar river

Drought indicators CHJ(31 January 2006)

Júcar => emergencyMarina Alta => alert

System Valuation risk State Index State

Cenia-Maestrazgo LOW 0.55 STABLE

Mijares-Plana de Castellón LOW 0.51 STABLE

Palancia-Los Valles LOW 0.52 STABLE

Turia MEDIUM 0.38 INITIAL ALERT

Júcar VERY HIGH 0.13 EMERGENCY

Serpis MEDIUM 0.32 INITIAL ALERT

Marina Alta HIGH 0.28 ALERT

Marina Baja LOW 0.58 STABLE

Vinalopó-Alacantí MEDIUM 0.49 INITIAL ALERT

Continuous monitoring

Page 19: Drought planning and management in the Júcar river basin, …...Cofrentes Nuclear P. 20 Hm 3 /year BENAGEBER Reservoir 221 Hm 3 (1 Hm3 = 1 Gl)=1 MCM 13 Risk of drying the Júcar river

20

DROUGHT RISKS ASSESSMENT

Page 20: Drought planning and management in the Júcar river basin, …...Cofrentes Nuclear P. 20 Hm 3 /year BENAGEBER Reservoir 221 Hm 3 (1 Hm3 = 1 Gl)=1 MCM 13 Risk of drying the Júcar river

21

Water management Simulation model integrating at a basin scale all infrastructures,

demands, priorities, operating rules, ... Common shared vision of the Basin (experience in

previous planning exercise)

Page 21: Drought planning and management in the Júcar river basin, …...Cofrentes Nuclear P. 20 Hm 3 /year BENAGEBER Reservoir 221 Hm 3 (1 Hm3 = 1 Gl)=1 MCM 13 Risk of drying the Júcar river

22

AQUATOOL:

DSS Shell designed for integrated management of complex water resource systems

J. Andreu, J. Capilla, y E. Sanchis, “Generalized decision support system for water resources planning and management including conjunctive water use”, Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 177, pp. 269-291, 1996.

Page 22: Drought planning and management in the Júcar river basin, …...Cofrentes Nuclear P. 20 Hm 3 /year BENAGEBER Reservoir 221 Hm 3 (1 Hm3 = 1 Gl)=1 MCM 13 Risk of drying the Júcar river

25

256283 278

199

119

55 55 55

279

0

50

100

150

200

250

300en

e

feb

mar

abri

l

may jun jul

ago

sepmes

Vol

ume

in A

larc

ón, C

ontr

eras

an

d To

us d

ams (

hm3)

Inflows of 2004/05 Operational volume

Deterministic forecast: Future reservoir storage evolution

Using same Inflows of last year (2004/05)without applying any measures

February 2006 forecasts

Page 23: Drought planning and management in the Júcar river basin, …...Cofrentes Nuclear P. 20 Hm 3 /year BENAGEBER Reservoir 221 Hm 3 (1 Hm3 = 1 Gl)=1 MCM 13 Risk of drying the Júcar river

26

February 2006 Stochastic (Risk) forecast(for 1 October 2006 storage)

(If the Supply to demands is the same as 2004/05)318

194

145

76 64 51 44 42 40

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

0 20 40 60 80 100

Probability (%)

Vol

ume

(hm

3)

Volume Alarcón, Contreras and TousMinimum Volume

Page 24: Drought planning and management in the Júcar river basin, …...Cofrentes Nuclear P. 20 Hm 3 /year BENAGEBER Reservoir 221 Hm 3 (1 Hm3 = 1 Gl)=1 MCM 13 Risk of drying the Júcar river

27

Stochastic Risk estimation

Probabilidades de Fallo en Demanda.Demanda: Valencia

Probab

ilidad(%

)

Meses

123456

Feb-06Mar-06Abr-06May-06Jun-06Jul-06Ago-06Sep-06Oct-06Nov-06Dic-06Ene-07Feb-07Mar-07Abr-07May-07Jun-07Jul-07Ago-07Sep-07Oct-07

Deficit (75 - 100) Deficit (50 - 75) Deficit (25 - 50) Deficit (2 - 25)

Probabilidades de Fallo en Demanda.Demanda: Riegos Canal J-T

Probab

ilidad(%

)

Meses

10203040506070

Feb-06Mar-06Abr-06May-06Jun-06Jul-06Ago-06Sep-06Oct-06Nov-06Dic-06Ene-07Feb-07Mar-07Abr-07May-07Jun-07Jul-07Ago-07Sep-07Oct-07

Deficit (75 - 100) Deficit (50 - 75) Deficit (25 - 50) Deficit (2 - 25)

Probability of failure in urban and agricultural areas

Page 25: Drought planning and management in the Júcar river basin, …...Cofrentes Nuclear P. 20 Hm 3 /year BENAGEBER Reservoir 221 Hm 3 (1 Hm3 = 1 Gl)=1 MCM 13 Risk of drying the Júcar river

28

Increase w. conveyance efficiency Increase Conjunctive surf&ground w. use + drought wells Increase Reuse of waste water Increase reuse of irrigation return flows Water rights purchase to preserve environmental flows Application of measures to save water: irrigation reduction,

and alternative urban supply Conjunctive management of Turia and Jucar Basins Public education trough media (Newspapers, …) in order to

reduce urban consumption Intensive monitoring and surveillance., ... Other …

Measures 2005/06 (more detail later ...)

Page 26: Drought planning and management in the Júcar river basin, …...Cofrentes Nuclear P. 20 Hm 3 /year BENAGEBER Reservoir 221 Hm 3 (1 Hm3 = 1 Gl)=1 MCM 13 Risk of drying the Júcar river

29

IRRIGATION Supply Supply Proposal 2005/06Reduction w.r. to

2004/05

1994/95 2004/05 Surface water Surface water

Regadíos canal Júcar Turia 42 46 16,1 65 %

Sustitución de bombeos yconsolidación de MO 0 21 7,35 65 %

Riegos tradicionales Júcar (RiberaAlta) 179 316 158 50 %

Riegos tradicionales Júcar (Ribera Baja) 204 305 183 40 %

+ Surface Water Allocation Proposal for 2005/2006 (figures in Hm3=GL)

URBAN SUPPLY Supply Proposal 2005/06

2005/06From Júcar River Other sources

Reduction w.r. to2004/05

Abastecimiento Albacete 15 10 5 33 %

Abastecimiento Valencia 126 70 56 44 %

Abastecimiento Sagunto 7 4 3 43 %

INDUSTRIAL USECentral N. Cofrentes 20 15 5 25 %

Page 27: Drought planning and management in the Júcar river basin, …...Cofrentes Nuclear P. 20 Hm 3 /year BENAGEBER Reservoir 221 Hm 3 (1 Hm3 = 1 Gl)=1 MCM 13 Risk of drying the Júcar river

30

Deterministic forecast: Future volume reservoir evolutionUsing same Inflows as last year (2004/05)

256279 283 278

199

119

55 55 55

256288 303 312

289264

207

159 143

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350en

e

feb

mar

abri

l

may ju

n jul

ago

sep

mes

Vol

ume

in A

larc

ón, C

ontr

eras

an

d To

us d

ams (

hm3)

Supply of 2004/05 With measures Minimum volume

February forecasts (if measures are applied)Effectiveness of the measures

Page 28: Drought planning and management in the Júcar river basin, …...Cofrentes Nuclear P. 20 Hm 3 /year BENAGEBER Reservoir 221 Hm 3 (1 Hm3 = 1 Gl)=1 MCM 13 Risk of drying the Júcar river

31

New February Stochastic forecastfor 1 October 2006 (if measures are applied)

Final state of dams at 1 october of 2006542

423366

287

210145

93 68 45

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

0 20 40 60 80 100

Probability (%)

Vol

ume

(hm

3)

Volume Alarcón, Contreras and TousMinimum volume

Page 29: Drought planning and management in the Júcar river basin, …...Cofrentes Nuclear P. 20 Hm 3 /year BENAGEBER Reservoir 221 Hm 3 (1 Hm3 = 1 Gl)=1 MCM 13 Risk of drying the Júcar river

32

New values for Risk of failures in demands

Probabilidades de Fallo en Demanda.Demanda: Valencia

Probab

ilidad(%

)

Meses

0.5

1.0Feb-06Mar-06Abr-06May-06Jun-06Jul-06Ago-06Sep-06Oct-06Nov-06Dic-06Ene-07Feb-07Mar-07Abr-07May-07Jun-07Jul-07Ago-07Sep-07Oct-07

Deficit (75 - 100) Deficit (50 - 75) Deficit (25 - 50) Deficit (2 - 25)

Probabilidades de Fallo en Demanda.Demanda: Riegos Canal J-T

Probab

ilidad(%

)

Meses

0.51.01.52.02.5

Feb-06Mar-06Abr-06May-06Jun-06Jul-06Ago-06Sep-06Oct-06Nov-06Dic-06Ene-07Feb-07Mar-07Abr-07May-07Jun-07Jul-07Ago-07Sep-07Oct-07

Deficit (75 - 100) Deficit (50 - 75) Deficit (25 - 50) Deficit (2 - 25)

Probability of failure in urban and agricultural areas

Page 30: Drought planning and management in the Júcar river basin, …...Cofrentes Nuclear P. 20 Hm 3 /year BENAGEBER Reservoir 221 Hm 3 (1 Hm3 = 1 Gl)=1 MCM 13 Risk of drying the Júcar river

33

IRRIGATION Supply SupplyReduction w.r. to

2004/05 Proposal 2005/06

1994/95 2004/05 Surface waterSurface water (Hm3)

Regadíos canal Júcar Turia 42 46 60 % 18,4

Asignación para sustitución debombeos y consolidación de MO 0 21 60 % 8,4

Riegos tradicionales Júcar(Albacete) (*) 8,7 8,7 45 % 4,8

Riegos tradicionales Júcar (RiberaAlta y Baixa) 383 621 43 % 354

March 2006. Agreement for irrigation supply from SW

REGADÍOS SUBTERRÁNEOS

Ahorro generalizado en las extracciones en el conjunto del acuífero de Mancha Oriental: 15% respecto a 406 hm3 (61 hm3). Posibilidad de materializar en tres años, con un mínimo del 5% en el primer año. Aprobada la modificación del Plan de Explotación de la JCRMO en su Asamblea del 25 de marzo de 2006

Ahorro en las extracciones en pozos con afección prácticamente inmediata al río similar a las tomas superficiales: 45%.

TRAMO MEDIO DEL JÚCAR

Posibilidad de indemnización económica por reducciones adicionales

Page 31: Drought planning and management in the Júcar river basin, …...Cofrentes Nuclear P. 20 Hm 3 /year BENAGEBER Reservoir 221 Hm 3 (1 Hm3 = 1 Gl)=1 MCM 13 Risk of drying the Júcar river

Surveillance and maintenance of minimum flows

Irrigation

From aquifer From Júcar river

Júcar River

0123456789

10

1-a

br-

07

1-m

ay

-07

1-j

un

-07

1-j

ul-

07

1-a

go

-07

1-s

ep

-07

1-o

ct-

07

1-n

ov

-07

1-d

ic-0

71

-en

e-0

81

-feb

-08

1-m

ar-

08

1-a

br-

08

1-m

ay

-08

1-j

un

-08

1-j

ul-

08

1-a

go

-08

1-s

ep

-08

1-o

ct-

08

1-n

ov

-08

Ca

ud

al

m3

/s

Q [El Picazo] Q [Los Frailes]

ALARCON

CONTRERAS

CORTES IIMOLINAR,EL

PICAZO

Albacete

Minaya

Iniesta Requena

Almansa

La Roda

La Gineta

Pozohondo

Casas Ibáñez

Quintanar del Rey

Cinchilla de Monte Aragón

Salidas al río. Simulación en régimen transitorio.

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

hm3

R. Alterado R. Natural Detracción

Page 32: Drought planning and management in the Júcar river basin, …...Cofrentes Nuclear P. 20 Hm 3 /year BENAGEBER Reservoir 221 Hm 3 (1 Hm3 = 1 Gl)=1 MCM 13 Risk of drying the Júcar river

37

La Mancha Aquifer Use Reduction 2007-08

Objective: Reducing extractions in the middle section of the Júcar river, both in surface water and in the area of the aquifer with a greater effect on the river flow.

2007 Rights acquisition and adaptation through reduction of irrigated surface.2008 Rights acquisition and adaptation by using less water-consuming crops (spring crops) (Changes in crop patterns)

Public offer agreement for water rights acquisitionin the middle section of the Júcar basin due to

environmental reasons

Page 33: Drought planning and management in the Júcar river basin, …...Cofrentes Nuclear P. 20 Hm 3 /year BENAGEBER Reservoir 221 Hm 3 (1 Hm3 = 1 Gl)=1 MCM 13 Risk of drying the Júcar river

38

20 40 60 km0

4320000

4340000

4360000

560000 580000 600000 620000 640000

TransmisividadRío JucarCeldas Inactivas

7500 m /día2

6000 m /día2

3500 m /día2

1500 m /día2

750 m /día2

100 m /día2

10 30 5070

90

9070

50

30

Selection criteria (model based):

1. Effects on river (0-20 points)

2. Offered price (0-20 points)

Extension: 28.000 hasW.Rights volume: 148 hm3Time frame: seasons 2007-08

2007 2008

Uses reduction 2007&2008

Maximum amount 07

Minimum amount 07

0,1957 €/m3 0,13 (€/m3)

Maximum amount 08

Minimum amount 08

0.25 €/m3 0.20 (€/m3)

TotalHGU Presented requests: 234Right volume (hm3) 109,6Renounced volume (no economic compensation)(hm3) 12,5Offered volume (hm3) 50,6Materialised budget (million€) 12,7Reserved volume (hm3) 46,5

TotalHGU Presented requests: 119Right volume (hm3) 56,8Renounced volume (no economic compensation) (hm3) 22,9Offered volume (hm3) 27,3Materialised budget (million€) 5,5Reserved volume (hm3) 6,6

Page 34: Drought planning and management in the Júcar river basin, …...Cofrentes Nuclear P. 20 Hm 3 /year BENAGEBER Reservoir 221 Hm 3 (1 Hm3 = 1 Gl)=1 MCM 13 Risk of drying the Júcar river

39

-80-70-60-50-40-30-20-10

0102030405060

oct

nov

dic

ene

feb

mar abr

may ju

n jul

ago

sep

Gan

anci

as-P

érdi

das (

hm3)

aH 04-05 aH 05-06 aH 06-07 aH 07-08

Accumulated balance

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

oct

nov

dic

ene

feb

mar abr

may ju

n jul

ago

sep

Gan

anci

as-P

érdi

das (

hm3/

mes

)

aH 04-05 aH 05-06 aH 06-07 aH 07-08

Monthly balanceaH 04-05 aH 05-06 aH 06-07 aH 07-08

oct -8,78 -4,19 -4,09 -3,87nov -2,36 -2,47 -2,62 -2,70dec 1,15 -0,69 -2,08 -2,31jan 2,44 -0,34 -1,85 -1,04feb 2,59 -0,47 -1,18 -0,72mar 0,56 -1,83 -1,12 -0,18apr -6,93 -2,89 -1,24 -0,98may -16,06 -4,73 -2,78 -2,15jun -14,95 -6,01 -4,21 -2,55jul -11,13 -9,22 -3,74 -2,86aug -10,14 -8,18 -3,93 -4,34sep -6,75 -5,83 -4,02 -3,87

aH 04-05 aH 05-06 aH 06-07 aH 07-08oct -8,78 -4,19 -4,09 -3,87nov -11,13 -6,66 -6,71 -6,57dec -9,98 -7,36 -8,78 -8,88jan -7,54 -7,69 -10,63 -9,92feb -4,95 -8,16 -11,81 -10,64mar -4,39 -9,99 -12,93 -10,82apr -11,33 -12,88 -14,17 -11,81may -27,39 -17,61 -16,96 -13,96jun -42,34 -23,62 -21,16 -16,51jul -53,47 -32,84 -24,90 -19,37aug -63,61 -41,02 -28,84 -23,72sep -70,35 -46,85 -32,86 -27,58

Monitoring the effectiveness of the measure: Balance for the Picazo-Los Frailes reach of Júcar River

Page 35: Drought planning and management in the Júcar river basin, …...Cofrentes Nuclear P. 20 Hm 3 /year BENAGEBER Reservoir 221 Hm 3 (1 Hm3 = 1 Gl)=1 MCM 13 Risk of drying the Júcar river

40

Júcar river in summer 1995

Objective: flow maintenance downstream from Alarcón reservoir

Júcar river in summers 2006 and 2007

Surveillance middle section of Júcar river

Page 36: Drought planning and management in the Júcar river basin, …...Cofrentes Nuclear P. 20 Hm 3 /year BENAGEBER Reservoir 221 Hm 3 (1 Hm3 = 1 Gl)=1 MCM 13 Risk of drying the Júcar river

41

Strict control of water abstraction:-Satelite & field control in MO aquifer-Meters at main canals automatically meas.Demand management and water savings (increased water use efficiency):-Turns in traditional irrigated farms (every 15 days)- Improvement in trad. Conveyance system

Page 37: Drought planning and management in the Júcar river basin, …...Cofrentes Nuclear P. 20 Hm 3 /year BENAGEBER Reservoir 221 Hm 3 (1 Hm3 = 1 Gl)=1 MCM 13 Risk of drying the Júcar river

42

Conveyance canal substituted by pressurized pipe• Savings of 100 MCM/year

• Part of an ongoing modernizationplan

Page 38: Drought planning and management in the Júcar river basin, …...Cofrentes Nuclear P. 20 Hm 3 /year BENAGEBER Reservoir 221 Hm 3 (1 Hm3 = 1 Gl)=1 MCM 13 Risk of drying the Júcar river

43

Other water sources measuresConjunctive use of

surface and groundwater + drought wells (40 MCM/year)

andpumping stations in

irrigation networks (Re-use of irrigation

drainages) (63 MC)

Farmers in the coastal plane, who are entitled to surface water, pumped from the aquifer and recycled sluice water, giving up an equal ammount from their surface water allocation to be used by the upstream farmers and urban suppliers.The later paid for the costs of pumping (5 cents of euro/m3)

Page 39: Drought planning and management in the Júcar river basin, …...Cofrentes Nuclear P. 20 Hm 3 /year BENAGEBER Reservoir 221 Hm 3 (1 Hm3 = 1 Gl)=1 MCM 13 Risk of drying the Júcar river

45

Conjunctive management of Júcar and Turia Basins

Metropolitan area of Valencia:

-uses up to 90 MCM from Jucar Basin

-produces up to 120 MCM of treated wastewater

Trades with traditional irrigation areas:

Page 40: Drought planning and management in the Júcar river basin, …...Cofrentes Nuclear P. 20 Hm 3 /year BENAGEBER Reservoir 221 Hm 3 (1 Hm3 = 1 Gl)=1 MCM 13 Risk of drying the Júcar river

46

TREATED WASTE WATER REUSE SCHEMES

Page 41: Drought planning and management in the Júcar river basin, …...Cofrentes Nuclear P. 20 Hm 3 /year BENAGEBER Reservoir 221 Hm 3 (1 Hm3 = 1 Gl)=1 MCM 13 Risk of drying the Júcar river

47

EDAR Pinedo II. Extension Quart-Benatger Carraixet Paterna-Fte. del Jarro

TOTALUDA Tradit. I. Vega de Valencia.Rest of Ditches

Del Oro Ditch Tradit. I. Vega de Valencia.Rest of Ditches

Tradit. I. Vega de Valencia.Rest of Ditches

Tradit. I. Vega de Valencia.Rest of Ditches

Tradit. I. Vega de Valencia.Real Ac de Moncada

User Favara Ditch (B) Del Oro Ditch (G) Ditches of Andarella (B), Xirivella (B), Benager (B), Faitanar (B) y Favara (G)

Rascanya Ditch (B) Tormos Ditch (G) Real de Moncada Ditch (B)

(Hm3)(Hm3) (Hm3) (Hm3) (Hm3) (Hm3) (Hm3)

2005/06 6.015 22.156 0 0 0 0 28.1712006/07 6.781 50.153 9.008 3.791 0.603 0.829 71.1652007/08 9.946 66.857 12.782 3.444 0.214 0.913 94.157

Volumes of Direct re-use of treated wastewater during drought

DIRECT REUSE OF RECLAIMED (TREATED) WASTEWATER

Page 42: Drought planning and management in the Júcar river basin, …...Cofrentes Nuclear P. 20 Hm 3 /year BENAGEBER Reservoir 221 Hm 3 (1 Hm3 = 1 Gl)=1 MCM 13 Risk of drying the Júcar river

49

Environmental measuresAlbufera Lake (Ramsar Wetland)

Monitoring network: Lake level Outflow in the 5 canals Inflows in some ditches

Page 43: Drought planning and management in the Júcar river basin, …...Cofrentes Nuclear P. 20 Hm 3 /year BENAGEBER Reservoir 221 Hm 3 (1 Hm3 = 1 Gl)=1 MCM 13 Risk of drying the Júcar river

50

Drought wells: flows, levels, and w.quality

W. Quality of Re-cycling in irrigation network

Special control & monitoring of Aquifers, and Springs

Page 44: Drought planning and management in the Júcar river basin, …...Cofrentes Nuclear P. 20 Hm 3 /year BENAGEBER Reservoir 221 Hm 3 (1 Hm3 = 1 Gl)=1 MCM 13 Risk of drying the Júcar river

52

WWW.CHJ.ES

Enero de 2009

Transparency: Public information on CHJ web page

Page 45: Drought planning and management in the Júcar river basin, …...Cofrentes Nuclear P. 20 Hm 3 /year BENAGEBER Reservoir 221 Hm 3 (1 Hm3 = 1 Gl)=1 MCM 13 Risk of drying the Júcar river

53

0100200300400500600700800900

1.000V

olum

en (h

m3)

2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08

Origins of Yearly supply Turia and Júcar

Supply Valencia_Turia Supply Valencia_Júcar Surf_TuriaSurf_Júcar Middle stretch gain_Júcar OPAD´SPumping Increased private wells CJT Increased private wells CCTRe-pumping Reuse

Other sources

Measures implemented during the drought

Urban: Supply Valencia Júcar and Supply Valencia TuriaAgricultural: Surface Júcar, Surface Turia, Pumping, Re-Pumping, ReuseManagement: OPAD S, Middle stretch gain Júcar, Increased private wells

Page 46: Drought planning and management in the Júcar river basin, …...Cofrentes Nuclear P. 20 Hm 3 /year BENAGEBER Reservoir 221 Hm 3 (1 Hm3 = 1 Gl)=1 MCM 13 Risk of drying the Júcar river

54

Main investments in:Improvement in the supply guarantee for urban areas and sources for alternative resourceImprovement in drinking water treatment systemsImprovement in the efficiency of irrigation systems

Emergency works

Emergency WorksBudget

(thousand €)Emergency Works 2005 19.285,0Emergency Works 2006 35.286,0Emergency Works 2007 15.350,0Emergency Works 2008 4.940,0

Total 74.861,0

Page 47: Drought planning and management in the Júcar river basin, …...Cofrentes Nuclear P. 20 Hm 3 /year BENAGEBER Reservoir 221 Hm 3 (1 Hm3 = 1 Gl)=1 MCM 13 Risk of drying the Júcar river

57

Drought indicators JRBA (30 September 2008).

Drought indicators JRBA (28 February 2009).

Drought indicators JRBA (28 February 2010).

Page 48: Drought planning and management in the Júcar river basin, …...Cofrentes Nuclear P. 20 Hm 3 /year BENAGEBER Reservoir 221 Hm 3 (1 Hm3 = 1 Gl)=1 MCM 13 Risk of drying the Júcar river

58

•Water Scarce Basins are usually also drought prone•We will never have 100% reliability.•Permanently prepared for droughts.

•New drought management policy•Planning and proactive vs. Emergency and reactive•Special Drought Plans•Efficient water management oriented to drought•Anticipation: Indicators must be usefull to anticipate, and to manage drought (not only statistical figures) at basin or water resources system scale: •CHJ-ODIndicators + Risk assessment (MODELS)

•Drought = CONFLICT: participation, negociation, transparency, tools and knowledge available to the stakeholders, ...•Thrust atmosphere, cooperation, consensus•Important role of DSS as a tool for drought risk estimation, planning and management, eficiency of measures, and as a common shared vision among the stakeholders.

CONCLUSIONS

Page 49: Drought planning and management in the Júcar river basin, …...Cofrentes Nuclear P. 20 Hm 3 /year BENAGEBER Reservoir 221 Hm 3 (1 Hm3 = 1 Gl)=1 MCM 13 Risk of drying the Júcar river

59

•2005-2008 Drought was the worst in recorded history•Permanent Drought Commission Plans of action:

•Equilibrium•Environment protection measures•Control and management measures •Water conservation•Alternative resources generation•EFFICIENT resource allocation

•The most intensive drought in historical records was passed with:- Low environmental damage (reversible)- Low decrease in agricultural production (due to other circumstances, benefits were higher in some areas) (loses due to a simultaneous freezing in citric and fruits were higher ) - No restrictions on urban uses

•Science and Policy can go together.•Every drought is different:

-SDP are guides-But drought management must rely on adaptation to each drought

CONCLUSIONS (Cont.)

Page 50: Drought planning and management in the Júcar river basin, …...Cofrentes Nuclear P. 20 Hm 3 /year BENAGEBER Reservoir 221 Hm 3 (1 Hm3 = 1 Gl)=1 MCM 13 Risk of drying the Júcar river

61

Thank you for your attention!

Joaquin [email protected]