drought monitoring, prediction and response - a view from georgia - david emory stooksbury, ph.d....
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Drought Monitoring, Prediction and Response- A View From Georgia -
Drought Monitoring, Prediction and Response- A View From Georgia -
David Emory Stooksbury, Ph.D.State Climatologist and Associate Professor
Engineering and Atmospheric SciencesCollege of Agricultural & Environmental Sciences
The University of [email protected]
David Emory Stooksbury, Ph.D.State Climatologist and Associate Professor
Engineering and Atmospheric SciencesCollege of Agricultural & Environmental Sciences
The University of [email protected]
Facts About GeorgiaFacts About Georgia
◊ In 1960 Atlanta’s population: 1 million◊ In 1960 Georgia’s population: 4.3 million
◊ In 2008 Atlanta’s population: 4.5 million◊ In 2008 Georgia’s population: 8.5+ million
◊ Largest state east of the Mississippi River◊ 8th largest state in population
◊ In 1960 Atlanta’s population: 1 million◊ In 1960 Georgia’s population: 4.3 million
◊ In 2008 Atlanta’s population: 4.5 million◊ In 2008 Georgia’s population: 8.5+ million
◊ Largest state east of the Mississippi River◊ 8th largest state in population
Facts About GeorgiaFacts About Georgia
◊ Northern quarter is southern highlands◊ Southern half is the coastal plain◊ Most of the population lives in the piedmont
◊ The fall line bisects the state (Montgomery, Columbus, Macon, Augusta, Columbia, Raleigh, Richmond and Georgetown)
◊ Northern quarter is southern highlands◊ Southern half is the coastal plain◊ Most of the population lives in the piedmont
◊ The fall line bisects the state (Montgomery, Columbus, Macon, Augusta, Columbia, Raleigh, Richmond and Georgetown)
Georgia Water Facts Georgia Water Facts
◊ North of the fall line - primarily surface water• Drainage basin for Lake Lanier 1040 sq. miles.
◊ South of the fall line - primarily ground water
◊ 1.5 million acres under irrigation, primarily in southwest Georgia
◊ North of the fall line - primarily surface water• Drainage basin for Lake Lanier 1040 sq. miles.
◊ South of the fall line - primarily ground water
◊ 1.5 million acres under irrigation, primarily in southwest Georgia
Georgia Climate FactsGeorgia Climate Facts
◊ Rule of Thumb: 50 inches of rain per year• More than 80 inches in the mountains• 45 inches interior southeast
◊ Rain is more or less evenly distributed over the year: March 5 inches and October 3.5 inches
◊ Evapotranspiration is extremely important in drought forecasting
◊ Rule of Thumb: 50 inches of rain per year• More than 80 inches in the mountains• 45 inches interior southeast
◊ Rain is more or less evenly distributed over the year: March 5 inches and October 3.5 inches
◊ Evapotranspiration is extremely important in drought forecasting
GEORGIA DROUGHT MANAGEMENT PLAN
GEORGIA DROUGHT MANAGEMENT PLAN
1) DROUGHT DECLARATION PROCESS
2) AGENCIES and ORGANIZATIONS
3) PRE-DROUGHT STRATEGIES
4) DROUGHT RESPONSES
5) DROUGHT INDICATORS and TRIGGERS
6) CLIMATE DIVISIONS MAP
Approved: March 26, 2003
1) DROUGHT DECLARATION PROCESS
2) AGENCIES and ORGANIZATIONS
3) PRE-DROUGHT STRATEGIES
4) DROUGHT RESPONSES
5) DROUGHT INDICATORS and TRIGGERS
6) CLIMATE DIVISIONS MAP
Approved: March 26, 2003
Section 1) DROUGHT DECLARATION PROCESS
Section 1) DROUGHT DECLARATION PROCESS
The following is the process for declaring drought conditions and responses:
1A): The State Climatologist’s office and EPD will routinely monitor and evaluate stream flows, lake levels, precipitation, groundwater levels, and other climatic indicators that are supplied by several cooperating entities …
The following is the process for declaring drought conditions and responses:
1A): The State Climatologist’s office and EPD will routinely monitor and evaluate stream flows, lake levels, precipitation, groundwater levels, and other climatic indicators that are supplied by several cooperating entities …
PrecipitationPrecipitation
◊ 30 days◊ 90 days◊ 6 months◊ 12 months◊ Water Year◊ 24 months◊ 36 months
◊ 30 days◊ 90 days◊ 6 months◊ 12 months◊ Water Year◊ 24 months◊ 36 months
30 Day Precipitation30 Day Precipitation
90 Day Precipitation90 Day Precipitation
6 Month Precipitation6 Month Precipitation
12 Month Precipitation12 Month Precipitation
Water Year PrecipitationWater Year Precipitation
24 Month Precipitation24 Month Precipitation
36 Month Precipitation36 Month Precipitation
Soil MoistureSoil Moisture
“Top” Soil Moisture (top 1 meter)“Top” Soil Moisture (top 1 meter)
“Deep” Soil Moisture (2 meters)“Deep” Soil Moisture (2 meters)
Stream FlowsStream Flows
Stream FlowsStream Flows
Stream FlowsStream Flows
Lake Russell GA/SCLake Russell GA/SC
Clarks Hill Lake GA/SCClarks Hill Lake GA/SC
Lake Hartwell GA/SCLake Hartwell GA/SC
Lake Lanier GALake Lanier GA
GroundwaterGroundwater
Drought Level GuidanceDrought Level GuidanceCD Drought Indicators
1 SPI-3, SPI-6, SPI-12 Lake AllatoonaChattooga River at Summerville
2 SPI-3, SPI-6, SPI-12 Lake Lanier, Lake Allatoona Etowah River at Canton Chestatee River near Dahlonega
CD Drought Indicators
1 SPI-3, SPI-6, SPI-12 Lake AllatoonaChattooga River at Summerville
2 SPI-3, SPI-6, SPI-12 Lake Lanier, Lake Allatoona Etowah River at Canton Chestatee River near Dahlonega
Georgia Drought Response LevelsGeorgia Drought Response Levels◊ Level One: Water on scheduled days - 12 midnight to
10 a.m - and - 4 p.m. to 12 midnight.
◊ Level Two: Water on scheduled days - 12 midnight to 10 a.m.
◊ Level Three: Water on scheduled weekend day - 12 midnight to 10 a.m.
◊ Level Four: Complete outdoor water use ban
◊ Level One: Water on scheduled days - 12 midnight to 10 a.m - and - 4 p.m. to 12 midnight.
◊ Level Two: Water on scheduled days - 12 midnight to 10 a.m.
◊ Level Three: Water on scheduled weekend day - 12 midnight to 10 a.m.
◊ Level Four: Complete outdoor water use ban
Determining Drought Level ResponseDetermining Drought Level Response
◊ Look at climatological data
◊ Look at triggers guidance
◊ Discussion
◊ Look at climatological data
◊ Look at triggers guidance
◊ Discussion
Comments about DiscussionComments about Discussion◊ Drought impacts are cumulative - data may not
capture the essence of the drought
◊ Drought varies over time and space - part of the state may be in short-term drought while other parts are in long-term - the importance various indicators will vary from drought to drought and within a drought.
◊ Seasonal components are important as well antecedent conditions such as soil moisture, stream flows, reservoir levels
◊ Drought impacts are cumulative - data may not capture the essence of the drought
◊ Drought varies over time and space - part of the state may be in short-term drought while other parts are in long-term - the importance various indicators will vary from drought to drought and within a drought.
◊ Seasonal components are important as well antecedent conditions such as soil moisture, stream flows, reservoir levels
Determining when to relax restrictionsDetermining when to relax restrictions
◊ Look at climatological data
◊ Look at trigger guidance
◊ Look at climate outlooks
◊ Discussion
◊ Look at climatological data
◊ Look at trigger guidance
◊ Look at climate outlooks
◊ Discussion
Drought OutlooksDrought Outlooks
◊ CPC Seasonal Outlooks
◊ IRI 3-month Outlooks
◊ NOAA’s and IRI’s ENSO Outlooks
◊ Southeast Climate Consortium’s Outlooks - State Climatologists of AL, FL, GA and NC - La Nina Watch issued in September 2007
◊ CPC Seasonal Outlooks
◊ IRI 3-month Outlooks
◊ NOAA’s and IRI’s ENSO Outlooks
◊ Southeast Climate Consortium’s Outlooks - State Climatologists of AL, FL, GA and NC - La Nina Watch issued in September 2007
Additional InformationAdditional Information
◊ State Drought Page: www.georgiadrought.org
◊ UGA Automated Weather Stations: www.georgiaweather.net
◊ Southeast Climate Consortium: www.agroclimate.org
◊ State Drought Page: www.georgiadrought.org
◊ UGA Automated Weather Stations: www.georgiaweather.net
◊ Southeast Climate Consortium: www.agroclimate.org