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Employment Lands Study

June 7, 2011

DRAFT FINAL REPORT

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Employment Lands Study | Final Report

Executive Summary

Between November 2010 and May 2011, the City of Burlington engaged Metropolitan Knowledge International (MKI) and the MMM Group Limited (MMM) to prepare an Employment Lands Study. The objective of the Study was to examine the degree to which the City’s current inventory of lands designated for employment purposes may be able to support the employment and density targets established by the Province of Ontario and the Region of Halton. This Study is one of many background studies that will provide input to the City’s review of its Official Plan (OP). The study was overseen by a Steering Committee that included representation from the City, the Burlington Economic Development Corporation (BEDC) and the Region of Halton. This Executive Summary serves as a briefing note for the City with highlights on the methodology used to complete the Study and the key conclusions drawn from the analysis.

Findings

1. The review of Burlington’s economic composition and trends revealed that the City’s economy shows a significant shift from traditional industrial or manufacturing employment to service and/or office-based employment. This trend of higher proportion of service employment was observed in various data sources accessed for this Study, including the 2006 Census Place of Work data and the Region of Halton’s 2010 employment survey. The shift away from manufacturing and towards the service and the office based employment sectors is expected to continue in Burlington. Several of Burlington’s major employers are in the education and health care sectors. These are sectors whose growth may be dependent on the rate of change to population levels in Burlington, which will be declining in the future.

2. The shift to a greater emphasis on service employment is a global trend and generally has positive implications for economic development, particularly in a community nearing the point where there is no longer a supply of raw land, as is the case in Burlington. In general terms, service based employment is found in office buildings and in smaller businesses than in the manufacturing sector. As such, growth in the service and office-based sectors can occur more easily through redevelopment and intensification than most other forms of employment. In Burlington’s case, the shift in the nature of employment may help to mitigate the competitive disadvantage stemming from a shortage of large parcels of land for manufacturing purposes.

3. The Halton allocation of growth to Burlington is based on a balance between population and employment of 193,000 persons and 106,000 jobs or an activity rate of 54%. Using a Provincially recommended methodology for estimating the need for employment lands, and based on Halton Region allocation in the Growth Plan, there will be a demand for 175 ha. This scenario assumes that manufacturing and traditional industrial employment growth either remains at the same proportion in total employment or decreases further.

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City of Burlington | June 7, 2011

4. Using a higher employment target of 111,000 jobs, together with assumptions that consider the long term need, the economic development policies of ROPA 37, and the competitiveness of the City of Burlington the estimated land need is 225 ha.

5. The effective supply of employment land at the time of this study is calculated at 295 ha. There are constraints in the nature and location of some of the lands in the supply, in terms of meeting the expected nature of the demand. The amount of employment to be accommodated on employment lands may range from 10,295-13,222 employees. The estimated amount of land required to accommodate this number of employees, using the assumptions stated earlier, is 174 to 225 ha.

6. The City is expected to, by 2031, have developed all lands within its urban boundary. Over the next 20 years, the City is likely to move from a planning context in which new greenfield lands are made available for housing and employment to one in which change occurs primarily through redevelopment. It is as if the employment lands supply in Burlington had reached retirement age and is now facing the new reality of having to live within a fixed income. The approach to spending and saving in this context would change dramatically, as does the penchant and capacity for risk.

The experience of reaching urban limits for growth in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) has to-date been confined to the City of Toronto. However, over the next two decades, several municipalities including Burlington will face a dramatic change in the nature of development and the resulting economic context. While the development of housing in a mature urban area continues to occur to meet market needs – as Burlington has demonstrated over the last decade, there is a not a similar context for the continued development of employment uses.

7. By 2031, it is unlikely that Burlington will have any remaining large parcels of vacant employment land, which are necessary to attract space-extensive manufacturing or warehousing uses. As forecast in this study, the growth in service-oriented employment will allow employment uses to locate throughout the City as the sites are typically smaller, can more easily occur through redevelopment/intensification and are more compatible with a broader range of uses than industrial sectors. For the same reasons, office uses can more easily support urban structure objectives and locate to maximize accessibility to transit than industrial uses.

8. There is a limited amount of vacant employment land with both highway access and a minimum size of 3 ha. In order to ensure their availability for manufacturing and industrial users, the City may further investigate Plan policies and zoning permissions to maximize the potential to meet the needs of manufacturing and industrial uses.

9. The amount of land suitable for manufacturing and industrial employment uses is barely sufficient to support the incremental job growth projected for 2031. Therefore, the addition of any land that is suitable for this category of employment uses to the employment land inventory would provide a greater range of choice for future employers.

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Recommendations

The City should complete the next phase of the employment land review by reviewing the employment land inventory on a parcel by parcel basis and determining what changes to policies may be appropriate to address the policy implications of the findings in this report, including:

the co-ordination of planning permissions with economic and urban structure objectives;

the maximization of the potential for strategic lands to be maintained in the inventory – those lands that meet specific anticipated needs and that may be in short supply;

a review of the permissions for non-employment uses to locate on employment lands, including ‘sensitive uses’;

a review of the conversion process, policies and supporting criteria that would allow the achievement of its employment goals as well as other policy objectives; and

the consideration of a policy framework to encourage intensification of employment uses on employment lands.

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Table of Contents

1 Introduction & Background .................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Approach & Scope ........................................................................................................ 1 1.2 Structure of the Report ................................................................................................. 2

2 Employment in Burlington...................................................................................................... 4 2.1 Overview of Burlington’s Economy............................................................................... 4 2.2 Current Labour & Employment Base ............................................................................ 8 2.3 Implications ................................................................................................................. 12

3 Demand Analysis ................................................................................................................. 13

4 Supply Analysis – Vacant Employment Land Inventory .......................................................... 20 4.1 Quantity of Employment Lands .................................................................................. 20 4.2 Characteristics of the Vacant Employment Lands ...................................................... 21 4.3 Employment Lands Designations ................................................................................ 22 4.4 Intensification Potential & Constraints ....................................................................... 22

5 Supply-Demand Analysis ...................................................................................................... 24 5.1 Calculated Demand ..................................................................................................... 24 5.1 Historic Record of Demand ......................................................................................... 24 5.2 Impact of Density on Land Need ................................................................................. 24 5.3 Summary of Potential Demand ................................................................................... 25 5.4 Suitability of Land and Vacancy Factor ....................................................................... 25 5.5 Qualitative Assessment of Supply by Sector............................................................... 26 5.6 Sensitivity Discussion .................................................................................................. 28

6 Findings and Recommendations ........................................................................................... 29

7 Appendix A: Employment Land Inventory ............................................................................. 32

8 Appendix B: Stakeholder Consultation .................................................................................. 34 8.1 Key Issues Discussed with Developers ........................................................................ 34 8.2 Key Issues Discussed with Realtors and Businesses ................................................... 36

9 Appendix C: Policy Context ................................................................................................... 39 9.1 Provincial Level ........................................................................................................... 40 9.2 Regional Level ............................................................................................................. 43 9.3 Local Level ................................................................................................................... 45

10 Appendix D: Consolidated Projections Tables ....................................................................... 49

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List of Exhibits

Exhibit 2-1: Burlington’s Economy by Sector

Exhibit 2-2: Burlington’s Employment by Sector and Firm Size

Exhibit 2-3: Changes in the Number of Businesses in Burlington by Number of Employees (2004-2009)

Exhibit 2-4: Business Establishments in the City of Burlington (1999-2010)

Exhibit 2-5: Business Establishments by Sector in Halton Region (1999 & 2010)

Exhibit 2-6: Employment Land Employment in Burlington (2010)

Exhibit 2-7: Building Types for Businesses by Sector in Burlington (2010)

Exhibit 2-8: Full-Time Jobs by Sectors on Employment Lands & Non-Employment Lands (2010)

Exhibit 2-9: Number of Full-Time Employees on Employment Lands & Non-Employment Lands (2010)

Exhibit 3-1: Step One – Work at Home/No Fixed Place of Work

Exhibit 3-3: Market Scenario – Incremental Employment Projections by Sector at Growth of 18,932 jobs in 2031

Exhibit 3-3: Market Scenario – Incremental Employment Projections by Sector at Growth of 18,932 jobs in 2031

Exhibit 3-4: Step Two – Amount of Employment on Employment Lands

Exhibit 3-5: Step 3 – Determining the Density of Employment and Resulting Land Need – Policy Scenario

Exhibit 3-6: Step 3 – Determining the Density of Employment and Resulting Land Need – Market Scenario

Exhibit 4-1: Available Employment Lands by Area (2010)

Exhibit 4-2: Vacant and Underdeveloped Employment Lands by OP Designation

Exhibit 5-1: Summary of Projected Demands for Employment Land

Exhibit 5-2: Allowing Flexibility and Range of Choice

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1 Introduction & Background

Between November 2010 and May 2011, the City of Burlington engaged Metropolitan Knowledge International (MKI) and the MMM Group Limited (MMM) to prepare an Employment Lands Study. The objective of the Study was to examine the degree to which the City’s current inventory of lands designated for employment purposes may be able to support the employment and density targets established by the Province of Ontario and the Region of Halton. This study is one of the background studies that will provide input to the City’s review of its Official Plan (OP) which is planned to commence in 2012, and as such also deals with broader issues of economic capacity and growth management from the City’s perspective. The study was overseen by a Steering Committee that included representation from the City, the Burlington Economic Development Corporation (BEDC) and the Region of Halton.

1.1 Approach & Scope

The issue of balanced growth and economic development is an important one in Burlington as there is not the opportunity to expand the urban envelope any further. As such, in order to achieve a variety of broad municipal objectives ranging from an appropriate urban structure to municipal financial health, the City must plan in the context of a finite land supply. At the same time the City is required to implement the Provincial and Regional employment targets, in the context of Provincial policy that mandates intensification and closer live-work relationships.

Since 2000 there have been approximately ten studies completed that have estimated the capacity of the City’s land supply to accommodate employment, all using a variety of methodologies and assumptions. In the current review the method and assumptions are intended to be conservative in nature and are undertaken more to understand the range of possible futures than to conclude with a specific numerical answer. Several different methodologies and assumptions are used to confirm the findings of the supply-demand analysis.

The work undertaken in this review considers the capacity of employment lands in Burlington from two perspectives. First, the report reviews the capacity of the City’s employment lands to meet Provincial and Regional targets established by policy under the Planning Act and the Places to Grow Act. This review is undertaken using assumptions and methodology that have been, to some degree, mandated by the Province. In addition the report looks at the capacity of employment lands from a perspective that is not constrained by Provincial policy, a perspective that considers the broad objectives of the City in terms of economic health, choice for its residents, and its urban structure in the longer term. Both perspectives should inform the City’s decisions on related issues.

A detailed update of the City’s existing employment lands inventory has been carried out to facilitate the assessment of both greenfield development opportunities as well as the intensification and redevelopment potential to accommodate the employment projections for Burlington up to 2031. Land areas are “net” except if otherwise noted. The demand for

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land to support employment growth is considered both in terms of the numerical capacity and through an understanding of the specific needs by different sectors in terms of job density, location, access to critical infrastructure and supporting uses. The supply-demand analysis provides an understanding into how well the City’s supply of employment lands fits with the demand for space to support the future economic and employment growth of the City.

The report provides a review of the challenges to Burlington’s economic competitiveness and the achievement of employment growth and density targets. These challenges include the land assembly constraints due to ownership or the location of strategic sites. Commentary is provided on the specific land requirements of the sectors operating in Burlington and the appropriateness of the vacant employment land supply to meet market needs and policy objectives, in the context of the Growth Plan.

The analysis in this study is based on data provided by Statistics Canada, the City and the Region, supplemented by stakeholder consultation conducted specifically for this study

1.2 Structure of the Report

After this introduction, the report is structured in the following manner:

Chapter 2 – Employment in Burlington

This chapter presents the overview of the current status of employment and economy in the City of Burlington based on data from Statistics Canada and the City. The analysis of the current economic and employment base informs the analysis of the type of space that may be required in the future according to the sectors that conduct business in Burlington.

Chapter 3 – Demand Analysis

The employment projection undertaken by the Region of Halton for the municipalities in the Region as part of the Growth Plan conformity exercise has been used as the starting point for the analysis of the demand for employment land. This chapter derives a need for employment land to 2031 using a variety of assumptions and methods. The approach considers both the Growth Plan/Region of Halton targets, referred to as the Policy Scenario, as well as an unconstrained analysis based on a perspective and methodology that considers the need for land in the long term, referred to as the Market Scenario.

Chapter 4 – Employment Lands Inventory

The employment lands inventory is presented in Appendix A and provides detail on the vacant parcels in Burlington that are designated for employment use. Chapter 4 highlights the characteristics of the vacant employment lands available in the City to serve as the basis for later analysis and discussion regarding the adequacy of the available employment lands both in quantity and quality for supporting the projected employment growth in the City.



Chapter 5 – Supply-Demand Analysis

Bringing the supply and demand together for employment lands in Burlington, this chapter considers the adequacy of the City’s inventory of employment lands from both a qualitative and quantitative perspective.

Chapter 6 – Findings & Recommendations

This chapter summarizes the findings from the analysis and discusses their implications. Based on discussions with the City and the analysis completed for the study, recommendations are presented for areas of further work as a second phase of this study in this chapter.

Because of the extensive research and analysis completed for this study, detailed summaries of the individual areas of research are presented in the following appendices, all of which are used to support the assessment of the Study Area as well as the recommendations presented in this report:

Appendix A – Employment Lands Inventory

This appendix includes the inventory of vacant employment lands available in Burlington based on the data provided to the project team by the City during the conduct of this study. The inventory provides details on where the parcels are located, their sizes, information on their owners, their zoning and OP designation as well as certain characteristics such as highway access, transit availability, and others.

Appendix B – Stakeholder Consultation

This appendix provides a summary of the key points raised and discussed during the stakeholder consultation sessions conducted in January 2011.

Appendix C – Policy Context

This appendix outlines the policy context that is pertinent to the discussion of employment lands in Burlington, and provides a policy framework of the Provincial, Regional and local planning regimes. Policies that guide employment lands in Burlington lay the foundation for the analysis of the supply of employment by examining the definitions of “employment lands”, goals and targets for employment, the intensification requirements or targets for employment lands in Burlington and the compliance requirements for the recommendations from this study.

Appendix D – Land Need Tables

This appendix includes some of the detailed background analyses related to the land need conclusions.



2 Employment in Burlington

A broad overview of the economy in the City of Burlington is presented in this chapter to provide a context for understanding the overall local economy and the trends. The changes experienced by different sectors that make up Burlington’s economic structure – most notably in the shift from traditional, heavy industry to service-based employment in North America generally – serve as the backdrop to understand what the future may hold for the City. Much of the analysis related to employment land employment (ELE) in this chapter is based on data from the recently released employment survey conducted by the Region of Halton in 2010.

2.1 Overview of Burlington’s Economy

Burlington’s economy is supported by 88,318 individuals1 who work in the City for the 12,481 business establishments2 which operate in the City. The economic base of the City shows a considerable level of diversity both in terms of the nature of employment and the sectors in which its businesses are engaged. This is illustrated in Exhibit 2-1.

Business services account for the largest proportion of all businesses currently operating in Burlington within which two sub-sectors dominate – Scientific, Technical, & Professional Services and Administration & Support, Waste Management & Remediation.3 The majority

1 Census 2006 – Place of Work – as presented in the Sustainable Halton Background Studies. 2 Canadian Business Patterns, 2010 June. 3 Burlington, Ontario Economic Profile – September 28, 2009 – page 14 & 20.



of the companies in four of the major sectors – business services, information technology, scientific, technical & professional services, and financial services – operate from only a single location in Burlington and employ no more than 20 employees.4

However, a considerable percentage of the employees in the information technology sector work for larger employers with 51-100 employees, which may be inferred as a sign of the sector maturing into a fully developed cluster that includes a broad range of different sized businesses.5 Similarly, the financial services sector also consists of a proportion of larger employers; the high proportion of the employers operating as branches in Burlington6 suggests that many of these financial services employers represent the retail portion of the sector providing population serving services, rather than the formation of a cluster similar to that in the information technology sector. Overall, these office-based employers represent the potential for growth within Burlington in the future provided that the conditions necessary for them to flourish are present.

The manufacturing sector, on the other hand, demonstrates a different set of characteristics. While the sector reflects to a certain degree the overall dominance by small and medium sized businesses in the City, more than half of the employees in this sector work for large employers with more than 100 employees.7 Again, this distribution of firm sizes indicates the existence of a manufacturing cluster in Burlington. The majority of the manufacturing companies have single locations in Burlington although the percentage is slightly lower than that found in the business services, information technology and scientific, technical & professional services8 implying that the expansion of these manufacturing businesses in Burlington may be predicated on demonstrating clear advantages offered by the City.

According to the data from Statistics Canada’s Canadian Business Patterns, 86% of all the business establishments in Burlington are service oriented with the remaining 14% in goods producing sectors. The same data also show that office-based businesses (i.e., finance, insurance & real estate; professional services; business & support services; information, cultural & recreation; and other services) account for almost 60% of all the establishments in Burlington. Industrial-oriented businesses (i.e., agriculture, forestry & fishing; mining, oil & gas; utilities; construction; manufacturing; transportation / warehousing; and wholesale trade) constitute almost 20%. While the diversity by sector is reflected in the City’s employment composition, the data also shows that office-based businesses tend to have fewer employees per establishment. This is evident in the higher proportion of establishments (57% of businesses) with lower percentages of employees (36% of employment). On the other hand, industrial sectors tend to employ more people per establishment. Wholesale & retail and accommodation / food services businesses make up approximately 15% and 8%, respectively, of all establishments in Burlington while public services such as education / health care and public administration account for the rest of the 7%.

4 Burlington, Ontario Economic Profile – September 28, 2009 – page 20. 5 Burlington, Ontario Economic Profile – September 28, 2009 – page 20. 6 Burlington, Ontario Economic Profile – September 28, 2009 – page 21. 7 Burlington, Ontario Economic Profile – September 28, 2009 – page 22. 8 Burlington, Ontario Economic Profile – September 28, 2009 – page 22.



This split between office-based9 and industrial businesses is reflected in the 2009 data reported in the City’s Economic Profile by the number of employees per sector, as shown in Exhibit 2-2. Almost half of the office-based businesses in Burlington employ 20 or fewer employees whereas approximately 60% of the industrial companies have more than 100 employees. The landscape of small and medium sized businesses in Burlington is dominated by office-based sectors with 80% of businesses with 20 or fewer employees being office-based. Small and medium sized businesses also demonstrate strong growth between 2004 and 2009, as shown in Exhibit 2-3. It may be inferred that much of the growth occurred in the office-based sectors.

Between 1999 and 201010, the total number of business establishments in Burlington has increased by 36% overall or approximately 3% on average each of the twelve years. Much

9 Office-based = Business Services; Financial Services; Information Technology; and Scientific, Technical, Professional in Figure 2-2. 10

Data from the Canadian Business Patterns are available from 1999 to June 2010.



of the growth was due to the increase from the service industries or office-based sectors which grew a total of 41% over the twelve-year period slowly eclipsing the proportion of goods producing or industrial sectors in Burlington as illustrated in Exhibit 2-4.

Although the overall picture indicates growth in the number of businesses operating in Burlington, it is important to note that much of the growth was recorded prior to the 2007 economic downturn. In fact, Burlington did not have any change in the number of establishments in the City between 2007 and 2010. The only sectors that demonstrated substantial growth during the last four years were the public sector and utilities. Although growth overall was not significant, the finance, insurance & real estate; business & support services; and education & health care all posted growth in the 2-3% range from 2007 to 2010 showing the resilience and strength of these sectors.

The split between office-based and industrial-oriented businesses in Burlington is virtually the same as that of the Region in both 1999 and 2010. In 2010, industrial sectors accounted for approximately one-third of all the businesses in Burlington – a decrease from 40% in 1999. Industrial-based sectors have experienced decline in all the municipalities within Halton Region from 1999 (as shown in Exhibit 2-5). Compared to other municipalities within the Region of Halton, Burlington is slightly behind Oakville in the proportion of office-based businesses as office-based businesses account for more than 70% of all establishments in Oakville.

Burlington, with 33% of its businesses being industrial based, has proportionally fewer industrial establishments than Milton or Halton Hills, both of which have more than 40% of



their businesses in the industrial sectors (as shown in Exhibit 2-5). Both Burlington and Oakville have the same or lower proportion of industrial businesses than the overall Regional average. The proportions of retail businesses are more or less equal among all four municipalities within the Region.

2.2 Current Labour & Employment Base

The 2006 Census recorded a population of 164,415 in the City of Burlington, representing a 9% growth from 2001 – a marginal slowdown from the 10% growth between 1996 and 2001. The 2001-2006 growth was considerably higher than the 6.6% growth for the Province of Ontario as a whole but was significantly lower than the 17.1% growth experienced by the Region of Halton. The proportion of the population who fall within the working age (15 to 64 years) is 66% in Burlington, marginally lower than the 68% in both the Region and the Provincial levels.

The participation rate of the labour force is approximately 70% in Burlington, meaning that approximately 70% of those aged 15 and over are part of the labour force being employed or seeking work. Burlington’s participation rate in 2006 is generally the same as that of the Region and slightly higher than that of the Province. Median household income in Burlington was approximately $75,000 in 2005 (as reported in the 2006 Census) – while it is almost 20% higher than that of Ontario, it’s 11% lower than that of Halton. The labour force in Burlington is well trained and educated with 60% having attained training in trades or some post-secondary education, which is comparable to the Region as a whole and 6%



higher than the Provincial average.11 Approximately half12 of those who work in Burlington also live in Burlington.

Region of Halton Employment Survey – 2010

In the summer of 2010, the Region of Halton conducted its first employment survey and reported that 69,94413 individuals worked full-time, part-time or seasonally in Burlington. The Region’s inaugural employment survey in 2010 recorded over 45,000 jobs employed by almost 2,000 businesses located on employment lands in Burlington (as shown in Exhibit 2-6). Employment lands from the Regional Employment Survey were identified by the City of Burlington based on traffic zone codes14. As such employment land employment (ELE) accounted for 64% of all employment in Burlington – 70% of ELE was full-time positions as opposed to 65% of non-ELE. While the majority of the full-time employees were reported to work onsite (almost 80%), half of the part-time employees worked offsite, according to the Regional Employment Survey.

More than half of the ELE businesses in Burlington are housed in light industrial or office multiple-unit plaza (as illustrated in Exhibit 2-7). Light industrial or office buildings (1-2 storeys or multiple units) and mid-rise office buildings (3-6 storeys) are home to almost 80%

11 All Census data from Statistics Canada, unless otherwise specified. 12 Burlington, Ontario Economic Profile – September 28, 2009 – page 12. 13

The total number of employees from the Region’s employment survey in 2010 is lower than the 2006 Census Place of Work number of 79,855 employees in Burlington for a number of reasons: (1) Although the employment survey attempted to count every single businesses in the Region, there was a non-response rate of approximately 25%; and (2) Those working from home and with no fixed place of work were not counted in the employment survey. 14 The traffic zones identified by the City of Burlington as employment lands are: 210, 211, 212, 253, 254, 269, 270, 271, 272, 273, 274, 302, 303, 304, 305, 306, 307, 308, 309, 332, 333, 334, 338, 339, 332, 333, 334, 340, 341,361, 365, 377, 378, 383, 384, 332, 333, 334, 338, 339, 332, 333, 334, 340, 341, 387, 388, 389, 396, 394, 395, 396, 398 and 399.



of the businesses and nearly half of the full-time employees on employment lands in Burlington. In contrast, nearly 70% of the non-ELE businesses are located in retail buildings in Burlington (either big box store or retail plaza or stand-alone retail). Interestingly, a significant proportion of businesses working in either mid- or high-rise office buildings are located on employment lands in Burlington. A quarter of the full-time employees working on employment lands are located in high-rise office buildings with seven or more storeys. On the other hand, approximately one-third of the full-time employees on non-employment lands work in government or institutional buildings in Burlington.

The sector composition of full-time employment on employment lands and on non-employment lands shows a significant variation between the two types of land uses, as evident in Exhibit 2-8. Almost half of the full-time jobs on employment lands are classified as manufacturing and management of companies. On the other hand, educational services, health care and retail services account for 50% of the full-time employment on non-employment lands in Burlington. As expected, around 80% of the full-time employment in manufacturing, wholesale trade, transportation & warehousing are located on employment lands. However, high percentages of full-time employment in information, administrative services, arts & culture, finance & insurance, professional services and management of companies & enterprises are also located on employment lands, according to the 2010 Regional Employment Survey. This is consistent with the trends noted earlier in this chapter that the economy of Burlington is shifting from the traditional industrial sectors to those that are service oriented. A growing proportion of office and/or service oriented employment is located on employment lands.



As shown in Exhibit 2-9, employers that are located on employment lands tend to have more full-time employees per business than those located on non-employment lands



although small businesses remain dominant throughout Burlington. Almost 10% of the businesses on employment lands have more than 50 employees per business whereas only 3% of those on non-employment lands are the same size. This is consistent with the findings of the type of buildings used to accommodate employment on employment lands and non-employments.

2.3 Implications

In summary, the development of employment uses on both employment lands and non-employment lands demonstrates significant differences by highlighting the fact that the two types of lands fulfil diverse needs and requirements of various sectors operating businesses in Burlington. One of the strengths of Burlington’s economy is its diversity. This diversity is reflected through the use of different land use designations, which assist in ensuring that the various needs are met by offering different development opportunities to employers.

Two of the trends that emerged from the analysis of the current status of Burlington’s economy and employment (particularly, ELE) are noteworthy: (1) a continuing shift from an industrial to a service based economy and employment; and (2) the increasing presence of population serving and institutional uses on employment lands. The implications of the shift to a service economy as far as land requirements are concerned include the following:

Office or service oriented employers tend to rely more on public transit and frontage on arterial roads for visibility as opposed to industrial businesses that would favour highway accessibility.

Employment densities for office and service sectors tend to be higher than that for industrial sectors and therefore the lands could be used more efficiently. Furthermore, the amount of lands required to accommodate the same number of employees is lower than for industrial sectors. One of the scenarios examined in this study is the impact on land demand with the diminishing proportion of industrial employment in Burlington. Further details are discussed in Chapter 5.

Development for office and service uses is potentially feasible on smaller parcels (i.e., less than half a hectare) provided that the locations of the parcels are desirable and therefore, could allow the City to direct employment to parcels that may otherwise stay indefinitely vacant.

The shift to a greater emphasis on service employment is a global trend and generally has positive implications for economic development, particularly in a community nearing or at the point in its development history where there is no longer a supply of raw land. In general terms service-based employment is found in office buildings and in smaller businesses than in the manufacturing sector. As such, growth in the service sector can occur more easily through redevelopment and intensification than most other forms of employment. In Burlington’s case, the shift in the nature of employment may help to mitigate the competitive disadvantage stemming from a shortage of large parcels of land for manufacturing purposes. This topic is further discussed in Chapter 5.



3 Demand Analysis

This chapter documents the methodology used to derive the need for employment land to 2031 and in the longer term in the City of Burlington. This analysis of potential future demand, together with the supply of vacant employment lands, forms the basis of the employment land budget analysis.

There are two recent projections available to estimate future employment levels in Burlington, as follows:

Sustainable Halton Report 3.07 by Hemson Consulting Ltd. (Hemson; April 13, 2009)

Employment Land Strategy by Cushman & Wakefield LePage (C&W; December 31, 2007 & March 25, 2008)15

These projections are based on the 2006 employment of 88,426 and are within 5% of each other within each five-year interval through the projection horizon to 2031. They project the growth rate to peak at 8-11% in 2011 and then to begin to moderate thereafter. The most recent projections prepared by Hemson in 2009 (i.e., after the unfolding of the current recession) are the most modest with 106,000 total jobs by 2031 representing a 19% growth over 25 years. On the other hand the C&W projections present a more optimistic scenario with a 26% growth rate over the same 25-year period resulting in 111,437 jobs by 2031.

On November 29, 2010, the Ontario Municipal Board approved ROPA 37, which was initiated to ensure conformity of the Halton Region Official Plan with the Provincial Growth Plan, and forms part of the Region’s “Sustainable Halton” initiative. ROPA 37 projects a total population of 592,000 people and a total of 308,000 jobs in the Region by 2031. At the local level, ROPA 37 projects a population of 193,000 and employment of 106,000 by 2031 for the City of Burlington. These projections are the basis for the employment targets used in what is termed the Policy Scenario.

ROPA 37 also outlines economic development policies to guide the development of employment. These policies require local municipalities to provide for a range and choice of suitable sites for employment uses, and provide direction to preserve and protect employment areas for current and future uses. ROPA 37 also supports and promotes opportunities to accommodate employment growth through intensification.

The base level of employment used in this Study is thus 106,000 employees. This assumption is used to ensure the City can be consistent with the Region’s distribution of employment, and to further conform to the Growth Plan targets. It is a “Policy Scenario” in the sense that the use of this target is mandated by the Growth Plan through ROPA 37.

However, in estimating the needs of the City of Burlington to accommodate balanced growth in the future, there are other factors that should be considered, not the least of which is the possibility that by 2031 the current mandated forecasts may have changed. This is particularly important given the geography of the City of Burlington, in which the

15 The Cushman projections only cover to 2026; as a result, the 2021-2026 growth rate of 2% is replicated to extend the projections to 2031 for comparison purposes with the other two sets of projections.



area available for urbanization is close to its ultimate limit, and which cannot change without amendment to the boundaries of the Greenbelt and/or the Niagara Escarpment Planning Area. Such changes are within the mandate of the Province of Ontario and not the City. The planning principle at issue is the need to ensure that decisions made today will not preclude the ability of the City to achieve its long term objectives of balancing employment and population growth.

The City has a finite amount of vacant land available that is designated to accommodate employment. The City anticipates continuing to accommodate additional population growth through intensification – well into the future. In order to meet broader urban structure and economic objectives, the City may need to ensure the availability of employment land in the long term.

To address this issue, this Study has also reviewed the potential need for land to accommodate employment levels higher than those established through the Growth Plan conformity process. Thus the analysis explores the potential need for employment land at higher employment levels than the Policy Scenario. This analysis allows the City to understand how best to use the remaining vacant land within its finite urban boundaries.

This analysis thus considers growth to 111,000 in what is referred to as the “Market Scenario,” an analysis that uses a series of assumptions considered to be the most appropriate in the circumstance of long range planning. The employment target for 2031 of 111,437 was determined in the Employment Land Strategy by Cushman & Wakefield LePage (C&W; December 31, 2007 & March 25, 2008)16.

Step One – Employees Working From Home or With No Fixed Place of Work

The 2006 Census conducted by Statistics Canada provides information on individuals who work from home or have no fixed place of work. The proportions of employees in these two categories have been reasonably stable in terms of both amount and nature of work over the last two decades. A reasonable case could be made to suggest that a higher proportion of employment in the future may fall into these categories because of much discussed trends such as telecommuting and virtual offices. However, the conservative assumption is that the proportions will remain the same, which has been carried forward into the calculations.

As such the 2006 Statistics Canada data for Burlington has been used to recognize this form of employment as follows in the Policy and Market Scenarios:

16 The Cushman projections only cover to 2026; as a result, the 2021-2026 growth rate of 2% is replicated to extend the projections to 2031 for comparison purposes with the other two sets of projections.



Exhibit 3-1: Step One – Work at Home/No Fixed Place of Work

Policy Scenario

Employment 2031 106,000

Current employment (2006 Census) 88,426

Forecasted increase in employment (to 2031) 17,574

Less "work at home" and "no fixed place of work" (16%) 2,812

Net forecasted increase in employment to 2031 14,762

Market Scenario

Employment 2031 111,000

Current employment (2006 Census) 88,426

Forecasted increase in employment (to 2031) 22,574

Less "work at home" and "no fixed place of work" (16%) 3,612

Net forecasted increase in employment to 2031 18,962

Step Two – Proportion of Employment on Employment Lands

The proportion of employment in the City that locates on the lands designated in the Official Plan for employment purposes is a key assumption in this analysis. The Halton Region Employment Survey provided data that indicated the proportion of all employment in Burlington located on employment lands in 2010 was 65%. Assuming the same percentage in 2006 there would have been approximately 57,477 employees (65% of 88,426) working for businesses on employment lands. The Hemson projections for the Region assume that 64% of all Regional employment growth to 2031 will occur on employment lands. Using the 64% assumption the growth to be accommodated on employment lands would be range from 9,448 (i.e., 64% of 14,762 in the Policy Scenario) to 12,136 employees (i.e. 64% of 18,962 in the Market Scenario).

It is important in carrying out analyses of future trends to consider a variety of assumptions in order to understand the potential range of land need. In the case of the assumption of the amount of employment on employment lands an alternative method was also used. This second approach uses sectoral data for the City based on the current ELE/non-ELE distribution as surveyed by the Region’s 2010 Employment Survey. Exhibits 3-2 and 3-3 distribute the 14,762-18,962 additional jobs by sector by location. It should be noted that the growth in the manufacturing/wholesale trade/transportation and warehousing sectors (MWT) was assumed to occur entirely on employment lands.



Exhibit 3-2: Policy Scenario – Incremental Employment Projections by Sector at Growth of 14,764 Jobs in 2031

Employment Land Employment (ELE) Non-Employment Land Employment (non-ELE)

Primary Industries 0 0% 10 100%

Utilities & Construction 3 2% 155 98%

Manufacturing 2,632 100% 0 0%

Wholesale Trade 980 100% 0 0%

Retail Trade 343 28% 882 72%

Transportation & Warehousing 442 100% 0 0%

Info/Admin/Arts/Others 688 65% 370 35%

Finance, Insurance & Real Estate 944 73% 349 27%

Professional Services 1,504 90% 167 10%

Management of Companies 2,303 99% 23 1%

Education Services 64 5% 1,219 95%

Health Care 182 26% 519 74%

Accommodation & Food Services 129 24% 408 76%

Public Administration 81 18% 367 82%

TOTAL 10,295 70% 4,469 30%

Exhibit 3-3: Market Scenario – Incremental Employment Projections by Sector at Growth of 18,932 Jobs in 2031

Employment Land Employment (ELE) Non-Employment Land Employment (non-ELE)

Primary Industries 0 0% 13 100%

Utilities & Construction 4 2% 199 98%

Manufacturing 3,380 100% 0 0%

Wholesale Trade 1,259 100% 0 0%

Retail Trade 440 28% 1,133 72%

Transportation & Warehousing 568 100% 0 0%

Info/Admin/Arts/Others 884 65% 476 35%

Finance, Insurance & Real Estate 1,213 73% 449 27%

Professional Services 1,931 90% 215 10%

Management of Companies 2,958 99% 30 1%

Education Services 82 5% 1,565 95%

Health Care 234 26% 667 74%

Accommodation & Food Services 165 24% 524 76%

Public Administration 104 18% 472 82%

TOTAL 13,222 70% 5,741 30%



Using the Burlington specific data by sector, which is considered more accurate, the estimate of the growth in employees located on employment lands would range from 10,295-13,222 jobs, as shown above, and summarized below. Using the Region-wide data and assuming that 64% of the growth is to be accommodated on employment lands, the estimate would range from 9,448-12,136 employees.

Exhibit 3-4: Step Two – Amount of Employment on Employment Lands

Policy Scenario

Net forecasted increase in employment to 2031 (from Step One) 14,762

ELE to non-ELE ratio, from Halton Employment Survey calculation for Burlington (current ratio) 64%

Net forecasted increase in ELE to 2031 using 64% 9,448

Net forecasted increase in ELE to 2031 using sectoral approach 10,295

Market Scenario

Net forecasted increase in employment to 2031 (from Step One) 18,962

ELE to non-ELE ratio, from Halton Employment Survey calculation for Burlington (current ratio) 64%

Net forecasted increase in ELE to 2031 using 64% 12,136

Net forecasted increase in ELE to 2031 using sectoral approach 13,222

Step Three – Determining the Density of Employment and Resulting Land Need

Having undertaken the analysis to determine the projected number of jobs likely to locate on employment lands, the next step is to determine the amount of land necessary to accommodate these projected jobs. The amount of employment land needed to meet the demand depends on the density of jobs per hectare, which can vary from location to location as well as from sector to sector.

Using the data from the 2010 Halton Employment Survey, the amount of floor space per employee by sector on employment land in Burlington was calculated. The resulting per employee gross floor area was then applied to the growth in the number of employees forecast by sector to be located on employment land by 2031. The resulting floor space demand was then translated into a demand for land assuming a floor space index (the proportion of built floor space to lot area) of 0.35 for industrial, warehousing and retail sectors and 0.5 for the sectors typically found in office buildings. This method assumes the same job density over time.

Exhibits 3-5 and 3-6 illustrate the potential ranges of the total demand for land to accommodate the growth in employment in the Policy and Market Scenarios.



Exhibit 3-5: Step 3 – Determining the Density of Employment and Resulting Land Need – Policy Scenario

Policy Scenario ELE Sq.ft per

Employee

# of ELE Employees

Forecasted

ELE Floor Space Required Land Area

Required (ha) Based on FSI Ratio Sq.ft Sq.m

Utilities & Construction 920 3 2,760 256 0.07 0.35

Manufacturing 1,003 2,632 2,639,896 245,254 70.07 0.35

Wholesale Trade 1,802 980 1,765,960 164,063 46.88 0.35

Retail Trade 861 343 295,323 27,436 7.84 0.35

Transportation & Warehousing 1,068 442 472,056 43,855 8.77 0.5

Info/Admin/Arts/Others 455 688 313,040 29,082 5.82 0.5

Finance, Insurance & R. Estate 315 944 297,360 27,626 5.53 0.5

Professional Services 361 1,504 542,944 50,441 10.09 0.5

Management of Companies 366 2,303 842,898 78,308 15.66 0.5

Education Services 582 64 37,248 3,460 0.69 0.5

Health Care 472 182 85,904 7,981 1.60 0.5

Accommodation & Food Serv. 793 129 102,297 9,504 1.90 0.5

Public Administration 58 81 4,698 436 0.09 0.5

TOTALS 10,295 7,402,384 687,704 175.0

Net projected new ELE employment 10,295 Land requirement (ha) 175.0

Exhibit 3-6: Step 3 – Determining the Density of Employment and Resulting Land Need – Market Scenario

Market Scenario ELE Sq.ft per

Employee

# of ELE

Employees Forecasted


Required (ha) Based on FSI Ratio Sq.ft Sq.m


Manufacturing 1,003 3,380 3,390,140 314,954 89.99 0.35

Wholesale Trade 1,802 1,259 2,268,718 210,771 60.22 0.35

Retail Trade 861 440 378,840 35,195 10.06 0.35



Finance, Insurance & R. Estate 315 1,213 382,095 35,498 7.10 0.5


Management of Companies 366 2,958 1,082,628 100,579 20.12 0.5


Health Care 472 234 110,448 10,261 2.05 0.5

Accommodation & Food Serv. 793 165 130,845 12,156 2.43 0.5


TOTALS 13,222 9,507,085 883,237 224.8

Net projected new ELE employment 13,222 Land requirement (ha) 224.8



On a purely quantitative basis, with no allowance for vacancy or competitive circumstances, the range of demand for employment land to 2031 is between 175 ha and 225 ha dependent on the assumptions described earlier.



4 Supply Analysis – Vacant Employment Land Inventory

Located west of Toronto and east of Hamilton on the coast of Lake Ontario, Burlington is the most western municipality of the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) and in the centre of the Greater Golden Horseshoe (GGH). It measures 18,700 hectares (or 46,209 acres) with the employment lands primarily found south of Highway 403 and adjacent to the Queen Elizabeth Way (QEW. The excellent regional and intra-continental access is provided by three major highways: Highway 403, the QEW and Highway 407. Both Canadian National Railway (CN) and Canadian Pacific Railway (CP) provide rail service in Burlington. Public transit is provided by Burlington Transit which operates 14 bus routes mainly in support of the GO Transit service at Appleby, Burlington and Aldershot stations. This chapter presents the inventory of employment lands available in the City of Burlington in terms of both quality and quantity. The detailed inventory along with the map indicating the vacant parcels in the inventory are found in Appendix A.

4.1 Quantity of Employment Lands

The City of Burlington currently has a total employment land supply of 1,378 net hectares that includes both occupied and vacant lands that are designated for employment purposes.17 This total includes parcels with land use and zoning classifications that permit industrial, offices, and a mixture of non-residential and non-retail oriented uses. Upon examining the City’s available vacant lands18, a total of 78 parcels were identified, totalling 314 ha of available employment lands in the City as of 2010, as shown in Exhibit 4-1 below.

Exhibit 4-1: Available Vacant Employment Lands by Area (2010)19

ha acres

Area 1 – Appleby/Burloak N 150 371

Area 2 – Appleby/Burloak S 7 18

Area 3 – Walkers/Appleby N 8 20

Area 4 – Walkers/Appleby S 13 32

Area 5 – Midtown & Progress Park 28 69

Area 6 – Industrial St/Plains Rd 1 2

Area 7 – QEW/403/407 Junction 3 9

Area 8 – King Road N 16 40

Area 9 – King Road S 28 69

Area 10 – Howard Rd & Cooke Blvd 2 5

Alton 58 143

Total (net) 314 778

17 City of Burlington: Long-Term Employment Land Needs Analysis (February 2008 Update). Prepared by urbanMetrics Inc. 18 Includes some lands with active development applications, as instructed by the City. 19

The map highlighting the areas listed in Exhibit 4-1 is included in Appendix A.



Area 1 – Appleby/Burloak N continues to be the community where the largest portion of the vacant employment lands is located at almost 50%. The communities with the small portions of vacant employment lands in Burlington are Area 6 (Industrial St/Plains Rd), Area 7 (QEW/403/407 Junction) and Area 10 (Howard Rd & Cooke Blvd) which contain small sized parcels (totalling to less than 5 ha in each area) remaining from an older stock of employment lands and abut mature residential neighbourhoods.

While in theory all of the vacant employment land is developable, there is significant research and experience to conclusively demonstrate that there is always a small proportion of lands that do not develop for a variety of reasons that are neither predictable nor capable of being changed by public policy. This is often termed a structural vacancy and conservatively is estimated to be 5%. Using this assumption the net-net available vacant employment land in Burlington is as follows:

1. Total vacant land – 314 ha

2. 5% structural vacancy – 5% X 314 = 16

The resulting effective net vacant land supply to meet the calculated demand is 314 less 16 or 295 ha.

4.2 Characteristics of the Vacant Employment Lands

The parcels in the 2010 vacant employment lands inventory range in size from 0.2 ha to 35 ha with the average size being 4 ha or 10 acres. However, the median of the vacant employment lands is 1.8 ha meaning half of the 78 currently available vacant employment land parcels are less than 1.8 ha each. Twenty-eight of the 78 total parcels (36%) measure 1 ha or less.

These parcels have a total area of 19 ha with an average individual size of 0.7 ha. Only seven parcels are 10 ha or larger, which add up to 156 ha in total. The distribution of parcel size reflects the maturity of the employment areas with the vacant, smaller lots primarily being remnant parcels located on previously subdivided lands within existing established employment communities.

It should be noted that the potential take-up of these smaller, remnant parcels may be slower than larger tracts of land as they may reflect certain characteristics that may not be as desirable as other, likely larger parcels of land that are able to accommodate broader building configurations. Should this be the case, the consolidation of land holdings may be an appropriate solution to the smaller, less desirable parcels.

Of the 78 currently vacant employment land parcels, two are owned by the City, which total 11 ha. The remainder of the vacant employment lands are owned by a diverse number of private entities. Generally speaking, most of the vacant employment land parcels have separate owners, which suggests potential issues related to availability to the market. For example, in Area 4 (Walkers/Appleby Rd S) there are more than ten separate property owners. Area 1 (Appleby/Burloak Dr S) has more than twenty vacant parcels owned by ten different entities that measure from less than 1 ha up to 35 ha. The fragmentation in ownership may present a challenge to development in terms of timing, coordination,



potential competition and compatible uses. The only exceptions are in Area 5 (Midtown & Progress Park) where eight of the twelve vacant parcels are owned by the same entity.

Full municipal services are adjacent to nearly all of the vacant employment lands. The majority (58 parcels or 74% of the total vacant lands) of the vacant employment lands are located within 1 km of a major highway interchange. All except five parcels are located in proximity to arterial roads. Public transit (300 metres from either Burlington Transit or GO Transit) is accessible from 55 of the vacant parcels or 71% of the vacant land space. Combining all these features 43 parcels or approximately 151 ha of vacant employment lands have confirmed municipal servicing and access to highway, public transit, and arterial roads.

In summary, as may be expected in a municipality reaching maturity, the existing vacant employment lands have some constraints in terms of providing opportunities for a fully – diversified economic base. In particular, the City’s ability to maintain a range and choice of suitable sites for employment uses, taking into account the needs of existing and future businesses, will become increasingly limited as the inventory shrinks.

4.3 Employment Lands Designations

When examining the OP designations for the vacant employment lands, approximately half of the vacant lands are designated as General Employment and approximately 20% are designated as Business Corridor. Mixed Use Centre and Mixed Use Corridor designations account for approximately 8% of the total gross employment lands. Exhibit 4-2 summarizes the vacant employment lands by OP designation.

Exhibit 4-2: Vacant and Underdeveloped Employment Lands by OP Designation (2010)

ha

Business Corridor 90 29%

Business Corridor, General Employment 24 8%

Employment Commercial, General Employment, Mixed-Use Corridor – Employment, Business Corridor 28 9%

General Employment 143 46%

Mixed Use Centre 7 2%

Mixed Use Centre, General Employment 11 4%

Mixed Use Corridor – Employment 7 2%

Mixed Use Corridor – Employment, General Employment 2 <1%

North Aldershot Office (Schedule D) 2 <1%

Total (net) 314 100%

4.4 Intensification Potential & Constraints

Promoting intensification on employment lands is one strategy to achieve the City’s employment and density targets. There can be many challenges in accommodating increased densities in employment areas, as many industrial operations use a high proportion of floor space for storage and machinery. There are long term trends to lower



employment densities in the manufacturing/warehousing sectors due to increased productivity and a growth in the logistics facilities. However, there do exist a variety of opportunities for building expansions, accommodating additional employees in existing buildings, and increasing densities for certain employment uses.

In conducting further analyses as part of the Official Plan Review, the City should review the potential for intensification on individual sites to determine what policy response might further intensification. The City should review the potential for intensification on individual sites to determine what policy response may further intensification. To assist in this review, a preliminary investigation was undertaken of lands outside of the City’s Vacant Employment Lands Inventory to identify parcels that do not have a significant investment in buildings or site improvements, or for other reasons, judged to have intensification potential. This inventory is presented in Appendix A.



5 Supply-Demand Analysis

5.1 Calculated Demand

The amount of employment to be accommodated on employment lands may range from 10,295-13,222 employees. The estimated amount of land required to accommodate this number of employees, using the assumptions stated earlier, is 174 to 225 ha.

In carrying out an analysis of possible future levels of demand for employment, it is important to consider alternative assumptions in order to understand the broad range of possible future. Therefore, two other important variables to consider are the historic record of demand and the overall density of employment uses.

5.1 Historic Record of Demand

On an average annual basis, Burlington has absorbed approximately 22 ha per year over the period between 1976 and 2007 (see Appendix A for details). Using this past record as an assumption to test the current conclusion, the annual demand would be discounted by 25% to 16.5 ha to move from gross to net land need in order to compare supply with demand. This adjustment is made to make the statistics comparable on a historical basis. On this basis the current vacant employment lands inventory would be sufficient to provide 314 divided by 16.5, approximately 19 years, or to 2030.

5.2 Impact of Density on Land Need

One other key variable is the density used to translate from the number of employees to the amount of land needed. The availability of Burlington-specific data by employment sector has enabled a highly detailed calculation of density by sector in order to determine land need. This data has not been available in the past. As a confirmation of the accuracy of the data and the suitability of its use in forecasting land need, a summary calculation was undertaken to determine the effective projected net density of employment lands in 2031. In the Policy Scenario the amount of employment on employment lands is forecasted as 67,840 and the total required employment land as of 2031 would be 1,238 ha resulting in a net density (not including any public land for roads and other purposes) of 54 employees per ha. By comparison, in the urbanMetrics study in 2007, a 2031 density of 45 employees per net hectare was used to estimate land need. Applying urbanMetrics density to the current net employment likely to locate on employment lands would result in a need ranging from 228 to 294 ha.



5.3 Summary of Potential Demand

In summary the analysis shows the demand for employment land to be in the range of 174 to 330 ha using the following different assumptions and methodologies:

Exhibit 5-1: Summary of Projected Demands for Employment Land

Demand 2031 Employment % on ELE Density Annual Demand

174 ha 106,000 64% (Region) Sectoral Data

210 ha 106,000 45 empl/ha

225 ha 111,000 Sectoral Percentages Sectoral Data

293 ha 111,000 45 empl/ha

330 ha

16.5 net ha/yr

The range of projected need is 156 hectares, a nine to ten year supply based on past absorption rates.

5.4 Suitability of Land and Vacancy Factor

Of equal importance to the quantity of land required is the quality and suitability of the available lands both to attract and to accommodate these new jobs. As mentioned earlier, specific sectors require specific location characteristics and features. The availability of lands with the appropriate characteristics and features to support the growth sectors is crucial to the City’s ability to capture these economic growth opportunities.

It is common in forecasts of employment land need to recognize that, while forecasts are for a specific and finite planning horizon (in this case 2031) growth will likely continue beyond that year. As such an allowance is usually made to ensure that some employment land will continue to be available to meet market needs. Historically, 25% of the total employment land supply has been considered as the amount of land that should be available at any given time to allow the City to complete for employment opportunities. Another common calculation assumes that a tem year supply of vacant land should be available at the end of the forecast period. This calculation is termed the “vacancy factor”.

Using a vacancy factor the Market Scenario would require between 112 and 345 ha for this purpose. Ten years is approximately ½ the forecast period and ½ of the forecast demand is 225/2=112.5. Using 25% of the total employment land supply of 1,378 the vacancy factor would be 345 additional hectares. The Province has determined that this 25% factor is not to be used by municipalities in calculating their land needs to meet Places to Grow targets.

Exhibit 5-2: Summary of Land Need – Market Scenario with Vacancy Factor

Market Scenario

Net forecasted increase in employment on Employment Land to 2031 (Step Two) 13,222

Number of square feet of floor area needed 9,508,545

Required Area of Employment Land (ha) 225

Ten Year Supply Vacancy Factor 112.5



Exhibit 5-2: Summary of Land Need – Market Scenario with Vacancy Factor

Market Scenario

25% Vacancy Factor (25% of total supply) 345

Required Area of Employment Land (ha) 570

In reality, there are only 295 ha of vacant employment land available. As such, over the next two decades the City will be increasingly unable to provide vacant sites for new employers and will become less competitive with municipalities that have a large and variable inventory of vacant employment land. The next section discusses the supply-demand analysis from the qualitative perspective to understand whether the inventory of vacant employment lands is optimal for the City to go forward in its economic and employment growth.

5.5 Qualitative Assessment of Supply by Sector

This section identifies the primary areas of concern pertaining to the retention of Burlington’s economic competitiveness and the achievement of employment growth and density targets from both an immediate to medium term employment development perspective (i.e., intensification on brownfields, land assembly constraints due to ownership or location of strategic sites).

Manufacturing & Industrial Employment

According to the demand analysis, traditional manufacturing and industrial employment (including, manufacturing, wholesale trade and transportation & warehousing) is projected to gain 4,054 to 5,207 jobs by 2031. This form of employment is typically located either in large single user buildings or in more dense multi-tenanted single story structures. These sectors are estimated to need 126 to 162 ha of land. The location requirements for this type of employment typically include proximity to major highways on parcels that are at least 3 ha in size. There are 21 parcels in the current employment inventory that meet these requirements, which total to 146 ha. In total the City can currently supply 58 parcels totalling 192 ha in proximity to a highway.

If the 21 parcels identified as appropriate for manufacturing & industrial employment were developed for such uses, there would be 169 ha of vacant employment lands left in the inventory. Only 46 ha of the remaining vacant employment lands would have ready highway access and 11 ha (or 26 parcels) would be less than 1 ha in size, which are unlikely to be developed for manufacturing purposes. Nonetheless, the parcels between the sizes of 1-3 ha still offer 35 ha which could accommodate approximately half of the projected employment in the sector.

In a mature community there is a normal economic competition among employers for the use of highly visible and accessible sites. This competition drives up the value of the most visible and accessible sites. In a City with limited employment land the market may drive land costs to the point where some uses, particularly those with extensive space



requirements, such as those in the manufacturing sector, may not be able to locate in Burlington. In this scenario, office employment would end up locating a higher proportion on employment lands.

In order to minimize the impact on the City’s competitiveness, it is recommended that the City further investigate the vacant employment land inventory on a parcel by parcel basis to consider more closely matching use permissions with urban structure and economic objectives. For example the City may wish to implement policy changes that would recognize strategic locations for manufacturing and industrial uses and for office uses, which would be distinguished through land use permissions. The City should complete the next phase of the employment land review by reviewing the employment land inventory on a parcel by parcel basis and determining what changes to policies may be appropriate to address the policy implications of the findings in this report.

Service-Oriented Employment

Service-oriented employment growth on employment lands is expected to reach 5,520–7,090 jobs by 2031. This category of employment (including information & cultural industries; finance & insurance; real estate, rental & leasing; professional, scientific & technical services; management of companies & enterprises; administrative & support, waste management & remediation services; and public administration) is assumed to have higher job densities than the manufacturing sector and as such, is estimated to require in the range of 37 to 48 ha of land. It is these sectors of the economy that produce relatively high employment densities in office buildings that can assist in achieving the City’s urban structure objectives.

Service-oriented employment typically locates in proximity to public transit and arterial roads. The vacant employment lands inventory consists of 55 parcels or 261 ha that meet these criteria. Among them, however, 19 of them were 1 ha or less in size. Although small parcels are still feasible for office employment, the general preference is to construct on parcels that are at least 1 ha in size because of sufficient amount of space to be available for surface parking (instead of the need for structured or underground at considerably higher costs). As a result, 36 vacant parcels with a total of 251 ha could be available for this category of employment.

As noted above, it is recommended that the City further investigate the vacant employment land inventory on a parcel by parcel basis to consider more closely matching use permissions with urban structure and economic objectives.

Public & Population Serving Services

By 2031, 683 jobs are estimated to be added to the public & population serving services sector (i.e., education, health care, accommodation and food services) to be located on employment lands in Burlington. Access by public transit is key for these locations although parcel size is less critical. Especially for population serving businesses, the potential additional costs associated with developing under-development parcels are typically less of a concern for this category of employment uses. The current level of vacant employment



lands as recorded in the inventory is expected to be sufficient to support this category of employment projections.

5.6 Sensitivity Discussion

A series of scenarios were used to test how the current supply-demand of employment lands in Burlington would fare in the future. The scenario analysis serves as a high-level check regarding Burlington’s potential to satisfy the Provincial and regional policy requirements regarding the City-wide and area-specific (i.e., Urban Growth Centre) target employment densities, activity rates and urban structure based on existing absorption rates and location trends. The range of potential future scenarios would help Burlington prepare for the future through understanding the potential consequences and examining how the City could react under different circumstances.

Different scenarios were selected during various discussions with the study’s Steering Committee to understand how well the current employment lands inventory is to meet the future employment projections for the City of Burlington if some of the assumptions used in the projections and analysis are different:

What if industrial employment in Burlington did not grow?

What if the proportion of ELE became higher than the projected 64%?

No Growth in Industrial Employment

If industrial employment was to remain stable instead of growing in Burlington, the 3,721–5,207 jobs projected for these traditional sectors would be distributed to other office or service based sectors. Since all of the industrial employment has typically been located on employment lands, there would be 126 to 162 ha of employment lands available for other sectors which typically develop at higher densities, thus reducing the overall need for land to the 2031 horizon. This scenario should be monitored at the five year review interval.

Higher Proportion of ELE

Since all the industrial employment is already projected to be located on employment lands, ELE could only become higher in proportion if more office or service based employment would also be located on employment lands. If employment in information, administrative, arts/culture, finance, insurance and real estate were to increase to have 90% of the jobs on employment lands (from the current 75%) and health care & public administration were to increase to locate 50% on employment lands (from the current 20% or less), the total amount of employment lands needed for this sector would increase by approximately 10 ha. As discussed earlier, the amount of land required to accommodate office or service based employment is not particularly high due to the higher density. Therefore, further increase in the ELE proportion is unlikely to lead to significant increase in the demand of employment lands. This scenario should be monitored at the five year review interval.



6 Findings and Recommendations

Based on the research and analysis completed in this study, a series of findings and recommendations are presented below:

Findings

1. The review of Burlington’s economic composition and trends revealed that the City’s economy shows a significant shift from traditional industrial or manufacturing employment to service and/or office-based employment. This trend of higher proportion of service employment was observed in various data sources accessed for this Study, including the 2006 Census Place of Work data and the Region of Halton’s 2010 employment survey. The shift away from manufacturing and towards the service and the office based employment sectors is expected to continue in Burlington. Several of Burlington’s major employers are in the education and health care sectors. These are sectors whose growth may be dependent on the rate of change to population levels in Burlington, which will be declining in the future.

2. The shift to a greater emphasis on service employment is a global trend and generally has positive implications for economic development, particularly in a community nearing the point where there is no longer a supply of raw land, as is the case in Burlington. In general terms, service based employment is found in office buildings and in smaller businesses than in the manufacturing sector. As such, growth in the service and office-based sectors can occur more easily through redevelopment and intensification than most other forms of employment. In Burlington’s case, the shift in the nature of employment may help to mitigate the competitive disadvantage stemming from a shortage of large parcels of land for manufacturing purposes.

3. The Halton allocation of growth to Burlington is based on a balance between population and employment of 193,000 persons and 106,000 jobs or an activity rate of 54%. Using a Provincially recommended methodology for estimating the need for employment lands, and based on Halton Region allocation in the Growth Plan, there will be a demand for 175 ha. This scenario assumes that manufacturing and traditional industrial employment growth either remains at the same proportion in total employment or decreases further.

4. Using a higher employment target of 111,000 jobs, together with assumptions that consider the long term need, the economic development policies of ROPA 37, and the competitiveness of the City of Burlington the estimated land need is 225ha. With a vacancy allowance of 25% the total need would be 575 ha.

5. The effective supply of employment land at the time of this study is calculated at 295 ha. There are constraints in the nature and location of some of the lands in the supply, in terms of meeting the expected nature of the demand. The amount of employment to be accommodated on employment lands may range from 10,295-



13,222 employees. The estimated amount of land required to accommodate this number of employees, using the assumptions stated earlier, is 174 to 225 ha.

6. The City is expected to, by 2031, have developed all lands within its urban boundary. Over the next 20 years, the City is likely to move from a planning context in which new greenfield lands are made available for housing and employment to one in which change occurs primarily through redevelopment. It is as if the employment lands supply in Burlington had reached retirement age and is now facing the new reality of having to live within a fixed income. The approach to spending and saving in this context would change dramatically, as does the penchant and capacity for risk.

The experience of reaching urban limits for growth in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) has to-date been confined to the City of Toronto. However, over the next two decades, several municipalities including Burlington will face a dramatic change in the nature of development and the resulting economic context. While the development of housing in a mature urban area continues to occur to meet market needs – as Burlington has demonstrated over the last decade, there is a not a similar context for the continued development of employment uses.

7. By 2031, it is unlikely that Burlington will have any remaining large parcels of vacant employment land, which are necessary to attract space-extensive manufacturing or warehousing uses. As forecast in this study, the growth in service-oriented employment will allow employment uses to locate throughout the City as the sites are typically smaller, can more easily occur through redevelopment/intensification and are more compatible with a broader range of uses than industrial sectors. For the same reasons, office uses can more easily support urban structure objectives and locate to maximize accessibility to transit than industrial uses.

8. There is a limited amount of vacant employment land with both highway access and a minimum size of 3 ha. In order to ensure their availability for manufacturing and industrial users, the City may further investigate Plan policies and zoning permissions to maximize the potential to meet the needs of manufacturing and industrial uses.

9. The amount of land suitable for manufacturing and industrial employment uses is barely sufficient to support the incremental job growth projected for 2031. Therefore, the addition of any land that is suitable for this category of employment uses to the employment land inventory would provide a greater range of choice for future employers.

Recommendations

The City should complete the next phase of the employment land review by reviewing the employment land inventory on a parcel by parcel basis and determining what changes to policies may be appropriate to address the policy implications of the findings in this report, including:



the co-ordination of planning permissions with economic and urban structure objectives;

the maximization of the potential for strategic lands to be maintained in the inventory – those lands that meet specific anticipated needs and that may be in short supply;

a review of the permissions for non-employment uses to locate on employment lands, including ‘sensitive uses’;

a review of the conversion process, policies and supporting criteria that would allow the achievement of its employment goals as well as other policy objectives; and

the consideration of a policy framework to encourage intensification of employment uses on employment lands.



7 Appendix A: Employment Land Inventory

The vacant employment lands are the basis for the supply-demand analysis in this study. A description of the methodology and findings is found in Chapter 4.

Appendix - Vacant Employment Lands Inventory

1 5164 Upper Middle Rd. Area 1 - Appleby/Burloak N Vacant H-GE2-354 General Employment 25.8

2 5360 Mainway Area 1 - Appleby/Burloak N Vacant GE1 General Employment 1.6

3 1205 Sutton Dr. Area 1 - Appleby/Burloak N Vacant GE1 General Employment 0.7

4 5470 Upper Middle Rd. Area 1 - Appleby/Burloak N Vacant H-GE2-354 General Employment 4.0

5 5900 Upper Middle Rd. Area 1 - Appleby/Burloak N Vacant H-GE1-354, O2, O3 1 General Employment 26.8

6 5366 Upper Middle Rd. Area 1 - Appleby/Burloak N Vacant GE1-354, H-GE2-354, H-GE1-354, O2, O3, Appeal No. 7 1 General Employment 35.3

7 5201 Mainway Area 1 - Appleby/Burloak N Vacant H-GE1-354, H-GE2-354, GE-354, Appeal No. 7 1 Mixed Use Centre, General Employment 10.8



10 1224 International Blvd. Area 1 - Appleby/Burloak N Vacant GE1 General Employment 3.7

11 1213 International Blvd. Area 1 - Appleby/Burloak N Vacant GE1 General Employment 4.6

12 1160 Burloak Dr. Area 1 - Appleby/Burloak N Vacant BC1-42 Business Corridor 0.5

13 1335 Heine Crt. Area 1 - Appleby/Burloak N Vacant GE1 General Employment 0.3



16 1309 Appleby Line Area 1 - Appleby/Burloak N Vacant D Mixed Use Centre Uptown Mixed Use Corridor Employment 7.4

17 5179 North Service Rd. Area 1 - Appleby/Burloak N Vacant GE1, GE2, BC1 1 Business Corridor, General Employment 2 19.3

18 5335 John Lucas Dr. Area 1 - Appleby/Burloak N Vacant GE1 General Employment 1.2

19 5329 John Lucas Dr. Area 1 - Appleby/Burloak N Vacant GE1 General Employment 1.0




23 1215 Appleby Line Area 1 - Appleby/Burloak N Vacant MXE Mixed Use Corridor - Employment 1.2

24 1207 Appleby Line Area 1 - Appleby/Burloak N Vacant MXE Mixed Use Corridor - Employment 1.4

25 5091 Fairview St. Area 2 - Appleby/Burloak S Vacant MXE Mixed-Use Corridor - Employment 1.3

26 799 Fothergill Blvd. Area 2 - Appleby/Burloak S Vacant GE2-48 General Employment 2.0

27 5200 Harvester Rd. Area 2 - Appleby/Burloak S Vacant GE1-59 General Employment 2.4

28 5180 Harvester Rd. 3 Area 2 - Appleby/Burloak S Vacant GE1-59 General Employment 1.8

29 1600 Corporate Dr. Area 3 - Walkers/Appleby N Vacant GE1-182 General Employment 2.0

30 4026 Mainway Area 3 - Walkers/Appleby N Vacant GE2 General Employment 1.3

31 1601 Corporate Dr. Area 3 - Walkers/Appleby N Vacant GE1 General Employment 1.6

Category of Use Zoning OP Designation (Schedule B)Supplementary Employment Designation

(Schedule F)Size (Ha)CATEGORY ID Address Community

1



32 4385 Mainway Area 3 - Walkers/Appleby N Vacant GE1, O2 1 General Employment 2.7

33 4130 Harvester Rd. Area 4 - Walkers/Appleby S Vacant GE1 General Employment 2.9

34 4150 Harvester Rd. Area 4 - Walkers/Appleby S Vacant GE1 General Employment 3.8

35 4216 South Service Rd. Area 4 - Walkers/Appleby S Vacant BC1 Business Corridor, General Employment 5.1

36 4196 Morris Dr. Area 4 - Walkers/Appleby S Vacant BC1 Business Corridor 0.4

37 4208 Morris Dr. Area 4 - Walkers/Appleby S Vacant BC1 Business Corridor 0.4

38 801 Laurentian Dr. Area 5 - Midtown/Progress Park Vacant GE1-334 General Employment 3.2

39 3200 South Service Rd. Area 5 - Midtown/Progress Park Vacant BC1 Business Corridor 1.0

40 3070 Harvester Rd. Area 5 - Midtown/Progress Park Vacant H-BC1-338 General Employment 0.2

41 3195 Harvester Rd. Area 5 - Midtown/Progress Park Vacant BC1-337 Business Corridor 0.9





46 800 Laurentian Dr. Area 5 - Midtown/Progress Park Vacant G1-334 General Employment 6.1

47 3455 North Service Rd. Area 5 - Midtown/Progress Park Vacant BC1 Business Corridor 10.0

48 860 Cumberland Ave. Area 5 - Midtown/Progress Park Vacant GE1-334 General Employment 3.1

49 1167 Plains Rd. E Area 6 - Industrial St./Plains Rd. Vacant MXE Mixed Use Corridor - Employment 0.8

50 1450 Kern's Rd. Area 7 -QEW/403/407 Junction Vacant BC1-44 Business Corridor 1.8

51 1006 Skyview Dr. Area 7 -QEW/403/407 Junction Vacant BC1-39 Business Corridor 1.7

52 1569 Yorkton Crt. Area 8 - King Rd. N Vacant BC2 Business Corridor 1.9

53 501 North Service Rd. Area 8 - King Rd. N Vacant BC2, O3 Business Corridor 3.4

54 1450 King Rd. Area 8 - King Rd. N Vacant BC2 Business Corridor 2.2

55 539 King Forest Crt. Area 8 - King Rd. N Vacant BC2 Business Corridor 0.8




59 891 North Service Rd. Area 8 - King Rd. N Vacant BC2 Business Corridor 3.6

60 151 North Service Rd. Area 8 - King Rd. N Vacant ONA North Aldershot Office (Schedule D) 2.4

61 1200 King Rd. Area 9 - King Road S Vacant BC1, H-GE1-410, H-MXE-411, By-law 4000-3 1

Employment Commercial, General Employment, Mixed-Use Corridor -

Employment, Business Corridor 2

27.9

62 1025 Cooke Blvd. Area 10 - Howard Rd. & Cooke Blvd. Vacant MXE Mixed-Use Corridor - Employment 0.3

63 1021 Emery Ave. Area 10 - Howard Rd. & Cooke Blvd. Vacant GE2 General Employment, Mixed Use Corridor - Employment 1.7

64 4131 Palladium Way Alton Vacant BC1-319 Business Corridor 3.8


2



66 4853 Palladium Way Alton Vacant BC1-383, H-BC1-383 1 Business Corridor 5.2

67 3505 Dundas St. Alton Vacant H-BC1-320, BC1-319 Business Corridor 9.7





72 4903 Thomas Alton Blvd. Alton Vacant MXE-322 Mixed Use Corridor - Employment 2.1


74 3379 Dundas St. Alton Vacant D Business Corridor 8.4

75 3402 Appleby Line Alton Vacant D Business Corridor 1.6



78 0000 Palladium Way Alton Vacant D Business Corridor 4.2

TOTAL 78 314.2

1 Please refer to the City's Zoning By-law Schedules for detailed mapping

2 Please refer to the City's Official Plan Schedules for detailed mapping

3 Includes a 50% reduction in developable land area for a parcel owned by a Federal/Provincial Agency

3

61

5

61

7

1774

47

67

4

16

46

66

35

76

11

77

64

34

10

60

7368

54

2

38

48

65

33

32

2827

55

72

50

2926

8

53

51

63

71

52

75

31 24

3

3025

23

18

9

19

3945414344

21

42

56

22

495758

20

70

14 12

69

3736

62

1513

40

59

78

61

Vacant Employment Lands

0 31.5km June 2011

ÜLegend

Inventoried Employment LandsMunicipal BoundariesRoads

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Hamilton

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This map shows Area #1-10 and Alton listed in the inventory.



8 Appendix B: Stakeholder Consultation

This appendix includes the methodology as well as the key issues raised during the conduct of the stakeholder consultation sessions for this study on January 13, 2011.

8.1 Key Issues Discussed with Developers

What effect does MKI’s previous work in Burlington have on this Study?

Response: This project is similar to previous studies but we are working with a clean slate and are taking into consideration the new information and policies established since the previous work.

What parameters have been put to the consultants from the City?

Response: City to send terms of reference to anyone interested.

Will comments on future policy changes that affect employment lands be considered if provided?

Will there be any further stakeholder sessions?

Does the approximate 415ha of land discussed in presentation include both vacant and under-developed lands?

MTO and Halton Conservation are some of the obstacles/challenges to development. The bureaucracies of these organizations make it difficult to obtain permits/approvals in a timely manner. This is very discouraging.

Hyrdo One, ORC are also obstacles in the development process.

City’s Official Plan and Zoning By-law do not permit parking in the hydro corridor. This should be changed.

Development Charges are an obstacle. High development charges in Halton Region.

There seems to be little or no demand for employment development in the City of Burlington.

Many employers/manufacturers are looking at other surrounding municipalities for employment development (i.e., Hamilton).

Issue of building permits not being issued for employment development projects (i.e., in the Alton community).

In order to attract more/new businesses to Burlington, the City needs to have large tracts of land for businesses to locate. Most existing employment lands have compatibility issues with surrounding uses. Having a large business park (i.e., north of Highway 407) would allow for large-scale employment opportunities to locate away from adjacent uses.



What is the definition of “employment” used by the City in the Study? The service industry/retail is a major source of employment for the City. Why is it not included?

Need to understand the type of employment the City wants to have in the municipality.

There is a lot of potential for the City to accommodate more office employment uses.

Questioning how the City wants to be viewed – do they want to be a bedroom community, or a City? These types of community have different needs.

The market is currently dictating to developers that there is not much demand for employment land, and there is a large demand for service/retail uses.

Development charges are a major disincentive for manufacturing/industrial to locate in the City.

“Spec” buildings: Not a good idea, very prohibitive, no real marketing potential, costing is problematic.

It would be helpful to know where existing infrastructure is in the City (i.e., Cogeco, Bell, hydro), as this can help attract potential landowners to Burlington if they know the property is “service-ready.” Business owners can take advantage of the infrastructure. The City’s planning department should be a one-stop shop to get all this mapping/information.

Intensification

Disagree with the notion that there are no manufacturing jobs coming to Canada. In fact, many manufacturing businesses have grown in Burlington (i.e., Gennum).

There are many opportunities for high tech manufacturing.

Potential to accommodate land on contaminated properties.

Some manufacturing uses cannot accommodate multi-level employment (i.e., food industry, which is prevalent in Burlington).

There would be less compatibility issues with “cleaner” types of employment, and these types of uses should be supported.

There are more compatibility issues with residential uses located next to office uses than clean industries and residential uses.

Issue of “NIMBYs,” who can make it difficult to support a development if an individual/group is against the development. A development may comply with OP/Zoning and other requirements, but if someone complains, the development becomes an issue

Day cares are prohibited from locating in employment uses. This should be changed, as many people who work in employment lands do not have nearby access to these services.



Hope that in the Land Inventory analysis, staff and Council keep an open mind to what is happening “on the ground” and acknowledge the realities of the market.

The Province has focused a lot of employment lands, and have developed employment projections for Halton Region. The Study should not fit the analysis/data to accommodate these targets. Worried study will make assumptions of future employment growth in the City. If we do not agree with the employment targets provided by the Province, then this should be stated in the Study.

The Study should include an analysis of where employment is coming from, as well as where employment is locating if they leave Burlington.

8.2 Key Issues Discussed with Realtors and Businesses

Development Charges a major challenge for manufacturing. Halton Region has the highest DCs in the GTA. However, the City of Burlington has good tax rates in comparison to other surrounding municipalities.

Zoning is an issue/obstacle to expanding land. Hoping that the previous City Zoning By-law update would provide for more general provisions for employment lands. However, the City’s updated Zoning By-law is quite restrictive and prohibits some employment uses in areas that should include employment.

Cost is a major issue. How much will it cost to increase density?

Choice: want more choice in land holdings, and options in the type, size and configuration of land.

Biggest issue is highway and truck access. This is the major mode of transport for most industries in Burlington. This is also something Burlington can offer, as many surrounding municipalities do not have such an abundance of employment lands abutting major highways.

Want to understand what the timing is for development/servicing of an employment parcel, as this will help real estate/landowner market a property. When will property be “shovel-ready”?

There is a disconnect between different kinds of land configuration.

There is a high concentration of landowners.

In order to attract new and large-scale businesses, the City needs a lot of land, which it currently does not have. City needs very large business parks that do not abut residential or other sensitive land uses. Many businesses are attracted to large-scale business parks that can support their operations. Recognize the only way for the City to do this is through an Urban Boundary Expansion. Landowners are stuck with the parcels that are left, many of which are not large enough in size to accommodate large-scale development. As well, many of these properties abut residential lands, which prospective business owners are concerned about.



Difficult to get manufacturing employees to work in Burlington, due to the high quality of life in the City. Employees of many manufacturing industries cannot afford to live in Burlington.

The City needs to figure out what they define as employment. Do they foresee businesses located in the City, or more manufacturing-type employment?

Adjacency to residential areas is a significant issue.

Owners want to be informed of policy and policy changes that effect employment lands.

There is premium to be paid for employment land in Burlington. Many businesses do this for image, as well as access to highways, and proximity to Toronto as well as the US border.

Many businesses are owned and operated by people who also live in Burlington.

In many ways, Hamilton is more desirable than Burlington, due to lower taxes, cheaper labour close-by and improved highway access to move around goods.

Decision to locate in Burlington over Hamilton may be more of a personal decision, versus a strategic one.

Suspect that Hamilton will become more competitive as investments in its economy and infrastructure take place over the coming years.

Intensification

We are a far time away from industrial/employment intensification. Until we are forced to intensify, landowners will not do so.

Once land prices are at a certain price, the landowner will increase height. Until then, landowners will still want to build in fringe locations at lower densities.

Parking is a major obstacle to intensification. City must reduce parking standards.

There is more demand for parking for major employers (i.e., 10 parking spots for every 1,000 sq.m of office space), not less. As such, there will be more of a push for larger parcels to accommodate the growing reliance on the car.

Land Uses

Outdoor storage is imperative for many business owners.

Halton Conservation Authority is very restrictive and slows down approvals process. Due to this frustrating process, many do not want to develop in Burlington.

Agreed that there should be some restrictions placed for certain types of employment uses (i.e., dirty industries). However, some of the restrictions should not apply for cleaner industries/not hazardous/intrusive industries.



There may be future opportunities to bring in new manufacturing uses, as many of these businesses are coming back to North America.

Redevelopment has good potential (especially with DC credits).

Many businesses want their voices to be heard, and have assurance that they are being listened to by the City. Want to hear from Council that they will be open to new business opportunities.

Want to know that Burlington is here to help them. This will help to attract new businesses, as owners are more drawn to municipalities that make the planning process easier (i.e. forge good relationships with the City).

What does the City define as employment? Why is retail not considered employment? Employment should include retail/institutional uses.



9 Appendix C: Policy Context

The planning policy regime in Ontario has undergone significant changes over the past several years. Consistency with these policies is critical to ensure that the development and retention of new and existing employment lands are encouraged, facilitated and accommodated throughout the City of Burlington. Many municipal policies are developed through establishing strategic goals and objectives. These goals and objectives and municipal policies provide for a solid framework to help support growth, redevelopment and intensification while guiding new employment development on greenfield sites. Combined, these can have significant impacts on how development will unfold on employment lands.

Supporting economic competitiveness and employment opportunities is one of the critical objectives for the City to evolve. The City’s Strategic Plan (2007-2010) provides goals to support economic growth and attract employment opportunities. Strategic actions to achieve these goals include accommodating a range of employment needs for a broad range of business investors and employers, and protecting employment land from conversion to incompatible and non-complimentary uses. The Strategic Plan aims to achieve these actions through various initiatives that encourage an increased number of small businesses, and aims to develop, retain and respond to the needs of businesses. Additionally, the City’s Economic Development Strategy (2008-2010) outlines objectives to attract, retain and expand businesses, as well as support and maintain a strong and diverse business base for the City. These objectives, combined with the City’s economic and growth policies, provide direction for the strategic management of Burlington’s employment lands.

A variety of policies to support employment land development are present in the policy framework at the Provincial, regional and local levels. All these planning policies provide the basis for assessing the location, type, and built form of employment development that can be encouraged in the City. It is evident that a significant proportion of new employment growth in the City of Burlington will take place in the built-up area, and more specifically, on vacant and underutilized parcels of land. As such, it is important to identify these parcels, as well as gain a thorough understanding of the kinds of employment uses these parcels can accommodate. Understanding the attributes associated with vacant and underutilized parcels of land in Burlington will help to inform, support, refine and strengthen policies pertaining to employment lands, redevelopment, intensification, greenfield development, as well as the possibility or appropriateness of converting employment lands to non-employment uses.

This section outlines the overall policy context related to employment lands in Ontario, the Greater Golden Horseshoe, the Region of Halton and specifically the City of Burlington. These policy documents provide a clear and concise structure for managing growth, supporting the City’s economic competitiveness, and maximizing the potential to encourage new employment opportunities throughout the City. The planning context pertinent to this Employment Lands Study consists of the following dimensions, each of which is discussed in further detail in the rest of the Section:



Provincial – The Province of Ontario provides the overall governing framework for municipal planning in the province through legislation including the Planning Act; the Provincial Policy Statement (2005); and the Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe.

Regional – The Regional Municipality of Halton, to which the City of Burlington belongs, aligns the Provincial framework to the specific circumstances of the Region to provide guidance for its municipalities through the Regional Official Plan and its amendments.

Local – The City of Burlington presents its own framework the most specific in addressing the City’s issues and challenges while complying with the Regional and Provincial frameworks.

9.1 Provincial Level

Three planning documents created by the Province are of importance with respect to developing an employment lands strategy in Burlington:

The Planning Act, which specifies the use of the employment lands designation in order to ensure that land uses are balanced among economic development, employment growth and population serving purposes.

The Provincial Policy Statement (2005), which provides guidance targeting the use of employment lands and the role played by employment lands in promoting the economic health of the Province.

The Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe, which was developed by the Province in 2005 to specifically address the challenges facing the municipalities in the Greater Golden Horseshoe in preserving lands for economic development and employment growth in the future.

Planning Act, R.S.O. 1990, Chapter P.13

The Planning Act is a blueprint for the Ontario planning regime and describes how land uses may be controlled and who may control them. This legislation provides guidance to municipalities in Ontario for planning processes, outlines the decision-making process with respect to planning matters, and provides a framework for local municipalities to make decisions for their communities. Section 1(1) of the Planning Act, an area of employment identifies areas of employment as an area of land designated in an official plan for clusters of business and economic uses including, without limitation, the following:

Manufacturing uses;

Warehousing uses;

Office uses;

Associated retail uses; and



Facilities that are ancillary to the above-mentioned uses.

Provincial planning policy provides a broad framework for employment areas to assist lower-tier governments to establish policies that support the retention and development of employment areas. The inclusion of areas of employment in the Planning Act can have significant implications to employment lands, particularly with respect to the removal of land from areas of employment. Section 22 (7.3) states that a decision to refuse the removal of land from areas of employment cannot be appealed to the Ontario Municipal Board, even if other land is proposed to be added.

Provincial Policy Statement, 2005

The Provincial Policy Statement (PPS), 2005, issued under the authority of Section 3 of the Planning Act, provides policy direction on key Provincial interests and focuses on promoting and maintaining strong communities, a clean and healthy environment, and a strong economy and influences all planning policy throughout Ontario. The PPS requires that all decisions affecting planning matters “shall be consistent with” the policy statements under the Act. The PPS provides clear direction for the promotion of economic development and the provision of employment lands. Furthermore, the document defines employment areas as “those areas designated in an official plan for clusters of business and economic activity, including, but not limited to, manufacturing, warehousing, office and associated retail and ancillary facilities”.

Section 1.1 of the PPS provides guidance for building strong communities, and managing and directing land use to achieve efficient development land use patterns. Planning to support and encourage employment opportunities is critical to accommodate the needs of the growing population. Moreover, encouraging the development of employment opportunities in Burlington is critical to the health and vitality of the City. The PPS has set forth policies to maximize the efficiency of growth that occurs throughout the Province, which can be achieved through:

Accommodating a range and mix of residential, employment (including industrial, commercial and institutional uses), recreational and open spaces use to meet long-term needs (Section 1.1.1b);

Promoting cost-effective development standards to minimize land consumption and servicing costs (Section 1.1.1e); and

Ensuring that sufficient land shall be made available through intensification and redevelopment (Section 1.1.2).

Section 1.3 provides direction to planning authorities for promoting economic development and competitiveness related to employment areas, including:

Providing an appropriate mix and range of employment to meet long-term needs (Section 1.3.1a);

Providing opportunities for a diversified economic base (Section 1.3.1b);



Planning for and preserving employment areas for current and future uses (Section 1.3.1c); and

Ensuring the necessary infrastructure is provided to support current and projected needs (Section 1.3.1d).

Moreover, Section 1.3.2 states that “planning authorities may permit the conversion of lands with employment areas to non-employment uses through a comprehensive review, only where it has been demonstrated that the land is not required for employment purposes over the long term and that there is a need for the conversion”. As the pressure to convert vacant and underutilized employment lands to non-employment uses becomes increasingly prevalent in the City, it is important to ensure that there is enough employment land supply to accommodate the needs of the City.

The PPS focuses on the long-term needs of communities. As both residential and employment populations continue to grow in communities, such as the City of Burlington, it becomes increasingly important to find unique, realistic and implementable solutions to support this growth. It is clear through the policies provided in the PPS that planning to accommodate a wide range of employment opportunities in a variety of land uses and built forms is critical to support the long-term future and economic development of Burlington.

Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe (Places to Grow)

The City of Burlington, as well as the Region of Halton, is also subject to the Places to Grow: The Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe (GGH). The Growth Plan was prepared to provide planning policy to better manage growth in the GGH to the year 2031. The Plan anticipates growth in the GGH of up to an additional 3.7 million people by 2031. For the Region of Halton specifically, the Growth Plan provides a projected Regional population of 780,000 residents and 390,000 jobs by the year 2031. To accommodate projected growth, municipalities are encouraged to direct growth in built-up areas of the community through supporting intensification opportunities. Additionally, to support and encourage the economic competitiveness of the GGH, the Growth Plan provides direction for both lower and upper-tier municipalities to ensure that sufficient land is available to accommodate the forecasted growth through greenfield development and infill/intensification. As such, a significant proportion of new employment areas in the City of Burlington will be accommodated through infill and intensification.

The Growth Plan also identifies Downtown Burlington as an Urban Growth Centre (UGC). UGCs act as focal points for investment and commercial, recreational, cultural and entertainment uses, and accommodate a significant amount of population and employment growth. Further, UGCs are expected to serve as high density major employment centres that will attract provincially, nationally or internationally significant employment uses. Downtown Burlington has been planned to achieve a total of 200 residents and jobs combined per hectare by 2031. It is also important to note that development of employment opportunities on greenfield lands has been planned to achieve 50 residents and jobs combined per hectare by 2031.



In order to accommodate employment growth specifically, Section 2.2.6 of the Growth Plan requires that municipalities ensure the availability of sufficient land for employment, and promote economic development and competitiveness through the following mechanisms:

Providing for an appropriate mix of employment uses including industrial, commercial and institutional uses to meet long-term needs (Section 2.2.6.2a);

Providing opportunities for a diversified economic base, including maintaining a range and choice of suitable sites for employment uses, which support a wide range of economic activities and ancillary uses, and take into account the needs of existing and future businesses (Section 2.2.6.2b);

Planning for, protecting and preserving employment areas for current and future uses (Section 2.2.6.2c); and

Ensuring necessary infrastructure is provided to support current and forecasted employment needs (Section 2.2.6.2d).

Provincial policy provides a clear vision to GGH municipalities to encourage a more compact urban form. Compact development can take numerous urban forms and includes buildings of varying size, type, density and configuration. In general, this urban form encourages the efficient use of land and promotes walkable neighbourhoods by mixing land uses (including residential, retail, workplace and institutional uses within one neighbourhood), locating new development in close proximity to transit and reducing the need for infrastructure. To ensure this form of development is realized, policies have been established in the Growth Plan that support intensification of all types of land uses, including employment, in existing built-up areas, including multi-storey commercial developments, and apartments or offices above retail.

The Growth Plan provides direction for general intensification throughout the GGH. Intensification is not only expected to occur within UGCs, but throughout the City as a whole, particularly in built-up areas, in designated intensification corridors, and around major transit stations. As such, municipalities have been directed to develop and implement, through Official Plans and other supporting documents, a strategy and policies for phasing intensification as well as establishing intensification targets. Intensification has a direct impact to employment areas, as the redevelopment of existing and vacant parcels of land can influence the built form and location of employment uses that exist throughout the City. Vacant and underutilized employment lands offer the potential to encourage a compact urban form to accommodate a wide range of employment uses. Understanding the inventory of employment lands located on vacant and underutilized lands can dictate the types of employment uses that are attracted to, and are able to, locate within the City’s urban boundary.

9.2 Regional Level

The Regional Official Plan connects the Provincial framework for planning into the context of the Region of Halton and its municipalities. The Regional Official Plan is updated every five years with the inputs from the Province as well as the municipalities. The Region of



Halton is currently undergoing a process to update its Official Plan in order to ensure conformity with Provincial planning policy and update existing policy, through Regional Official Plan Amendments (ROPAs) – ROPA 37: An Amendment to Incorporate the Basic Requirements of the Growth Plan and ROPA 38: An Amendment to Incorporate the Results of Sustainable Halton, Official Plan Review Directions and Other Matters20. These amendments provide policy guidance to local municipalities to ensure that the Region grows in a sustainable manner in accordance with the new Provincial planning framework.

Region of Halton Official Plan, 2006

The current Halton Region Official Plan (ROP) establishes employment policies for the Region’s urban areas and provides policy direction to support compact development and provide for a range of communities of various sizes, types and characteristics. The ROP also provides policy direction to promote economic development and establish employment opportunities throughout the Region. More specifically, Section 168 provides a goal of economic development to “achieve sustainable economic prosperity for Halton on the basis of the competitiveness of its human and natural resources, a positive business environment, and a diversified economic base.”

Furthermore, Section 170(8) of the ROP directs planning authorities to maintain an up-to-date inventory of vacant employment lands and buildings. A key component of this Study will update the inventory of vacant employment land, and will assist in highlighting the opportunities for new employment areas to develop within key employment clusters located throughout the City.

ROPA 37: An Amendment to Incorporate the Basic Requirements of the Growth Plan

On November 29, 2010, the Ontario Municipal Board approved ROPA 37, which was initiated to ensure conformity of the Halton Region Official Plan with the Provincial Growth Plan, and forms part of the Region’s larger “Sustainable Halton” initiative. ROPA 37 projects a total population of 592,000 people and a total of 308,000 jobs in the Region by 2031. At the local level, ROPA 37 projects a population of 193,000 and an employment population of 106,000 by 2031 for the City of Burlington. These projections were used as the basis for population and employment targets for this Study. The Amendment outlines economic development policies to guide the development of employment. These policies encourage local municipalities to provide for a range and choice of suitable sites for employment uses, while directing municipalities to preserve and protect employment areas for current and future uses. ROPA 37 also promotes opportunities to accommodate employment growth through intensification.

ROPA 38: An Amendment to Incorporate the Results of Sustainable Halton, Official Plan Review Directions and Other Matters

It is important to note that an additional policy amendment – ROPA 38 – was also undertaken as part of the Region’s “Sustainable Halton” initiative. ROPA 38 represents the

20 ROPA 37 was approved by the Ontario Municipal Board on November 29, 2010 (except for three sections); the population and employment projections used in this study were approved. ROPA 38 was approved by Regional Council on December 16, 2009 and is currently under review by the Province.



culmination of the Region’s comprehensive five-year review of its Official Plan, and was adopted by Regional Council on December 16, 2009. It is currently under review by the Ministry of Municipal Affairs and Housing, and has not yet been formally approved.

Section 77.1 of ROPA 38 provides updated policies for employment areas. These policies support opportunities for a diversified economic/employment base, and ensuring that there exists a range and choice of suitable sites for employment uses, and that these sites also support a wide range of economic activities. Furthermore, ROPA 38 requires local municipalities to promote intensification and increase densities in both new and existing employment areas by facilitating a compact, transit-supportive built form, which is encouraged to take place in strategic locations in the vicinity of existing major highway interchanges, rail yards and along identified transportation corridors (Section 169 (1.4)).

On October 27, 2010, the Ministry of Municipal Affairs and Housing issued a Partial Draft Decision on ROPA 38. This Decision includes several modifications to ROPA 38, along with a number of new modifications and addition of new policies. Key modifications related to employment area policies include:

Locating employment areas within the vicinity of existing major highway interchanges and rail yard within urban areas; and

Removing Future Strategic Employment Lands which are not presently in the Urban Area.

The partial Decision also indicated the Province’s concern over the land budget methodology used by the Region to support the designation of additional employment land. It has been expressed that this methodology does not fully comply with Provincial guidelines and policy. As well, concern was expressed over the use of vacancy rates or underutilization to determine the Region’s employment needs, and the fact that these assumptions may have led the Region to overestimate land needed for future employment growth. It is important to note that these concerns may impact, and modify, the amount of new employment land that is needed throughout Halton Region.

9.3 Local Level

The City’s Official Plan provides an overall framework to guide development within the City and includes Secondary Plans to address specific issues within particular geographic areas in the City. This framework is based on both Regional and Provincial planning policy and assists the City in establishing goals, principles and policies that guide the municipal land use planning process and create a vision for future growth and development on the local level. Furthermore, local planning policy, including the City’s Official Plan, Zoning By-law, and the Tremaine and Dundas Secondary Plan, sets criteria to establish the scale, urban form, and permitted uses for employment development for the City. This local planning regime plays a vital role in determining opportunities for accommodating additional employment lands throughout Burlington, as well as provides guidance for employment development to take place in key areas of the City.



City of Burlington Official Plan

The City of Burlington Official Plan, approved by Halton Region in March 1997 and last updated in June 2010, provides policy direction to ensure the efficiency of land use when considering new development throughout the City. The City’s Official Plan is constantly evolving to reflect the changing character of Burlington. This Employment Lands Study will help to inform new policies related to employment development, and is one of a series of background studies to be undertaken as part of the City’s Official Plan Review. Section 2.7 encourages development that provides choices in housing, shopping, employment and transportation. As well, intensification and redevelopment opportunities should be considered for new development opportunities.

The City’s Official Plan defines an “Area of Employment” as an area of land designated for clusters of business and economic uses, including, without limitation:

(1) Manufacturing uses;

(2) Warehousing uses;

(3) Office uses; and

(4) Retail uses that are associated with, and accessory to, manufacturing, warehousing or office uses. The lands designated Business Corridor, General Employment, Mixed Use Corridor – Employment, Uptown Employment, Uptown General Employment and Uptown Office Business Park are considered to be Areas of Employment.

Encouraging opportunities to support and expand the City’s employment base is a focal point of the City’s Official Plan, which provides key policy guidance for employment areas found in two key land use designations: General Employment and Mixed-Use Activity Areas.

There are numerous opportunities to promote employment growth throughout the City in designated greenfield areas and within the City’s built-up area:

Vacant and underdeveloped employment lands, which are identified as providing potential opportunities to accommodate infill development, redevelopment, or building expansion, provide opportunities to accommodate various forms of employment development while taking advantage of existing infrastructure and maximizing land efficiency, which are key goals articulated in the Official Plan.

Policies for employment uses (outlined in Section 3.0 of the Official Plan) encourage the establishment, retention and expansion of businesses and institutions, increase job opportunities, and provide a sufficient supply of land for employment purposes to meet the City’s existing and future needs.

Mixed Use Activity Area policies (outlined Section 5.0) provide employment opportunities to be integrated along strategic locations of the City, and are encouraged to be developed in a compact urban form, have higher densities, and be transit-supportive.



Intensification is one key method that can be used as a way to encourage development of employment uses, and support mixed-use opportunities throughout the City’s urban area. Understanding Burlington’s supply of employment lands is critical to determine the opportunities that exist to accommodate new development through infill/intensification, and ensure the long-term growth of Burlington’s businesses and employment.

The Burlington OP provides a series of land use designations, each providing policy direction for capturing employment opportunities in Burlington. The following table summarizes all the currently existing types of land use designations in the OP, including those specified for employment and thus included in the Employment Lands Inventory for the purpose of this study (shaded in grey):

Land Use Designation

Description Permitted Uses

General Employment (GE) To provide for low-intensity,

industrial uses, and offices that have a limited effect on the surrounding environment and that are generally

small-scale. These uses can usually be located close to other land uses, including residential land uses,

without significant conflicts if appropriate site plan design features are used and if appropriate mitigation

measures are incorporated.

Industrial uses that involve assembling, fabricating,

manufacturing, processing, warehousing and distribution uses, repair activities, communications, utilities, transportation, storage, service trades and construction

uses, offices uses; research and information processing, recreational uses, large scale motor vehicle dealerships, and adult entertainment uses.

A limited range of retail uses such as convenience stores, and a limited range of service commercial uses such as restaurants and banks.

In locations adjacent to residential areas, only uses that would have a limited impact on the surrounding area will be permitted.

A residence for a watchman or caretaker.

Business Corridor (BC) To provide for prestige-type offices

and industrial uses that require good access and high visibility along major transportation routes.

A broad range of office uses, industrial uses that involve

assembling, fabricating, manufacturing, processing, warehousing and distribution uses, research and information processing, communications, utilities and

transportation uses, and service trades, provided these uses are located within an enclosed building and are unlikely to cause significant pollution or excessive noise,

hotel, conference and convention uses,

A limited range of retail commercial uses such as convenience stores, and a limited range of service

commercial and recreation uses such as restaurants, banks and fitness centres.

A residence for a watchman or caretaker.

Mixed-Use Corridor – Employment (MXE)

Although MXE is not identified as an employment lands designation, it is

included in the Employment Lands Inventory in this study because they are protected

against conversion in the same manner as employment lands in

Burlington.

To provide employment opportunities in a higher intensity, transit and

pedestrian oriented built form.

Industrial uses.

A broad range of office uses, a limited range of retail,

service commercial and personal service uses which serve the day to day needs of employees.

Financial institutions and services, entertainment,

recreation and other community facilities such as libraries and day care centres and motor vehicle dealerships.

Uptown Mixed-Use Centre

Although “Uptown Mixed-

The Uptown Mixed Use Centre, located around the intersection of

Employment Area:

Retail and service commercial uses including business



Land Use Designation

Description Permitted Uses

Use Centre” is not identified

as an employment lands designation, it is included in the Employment Lands

Inventory in this study because they are protected against conversion in the

same manner as employment lands in Burlington.

Appleby Line and Upper Middle Road,

is considered to be a secondary node to the Downtown. It will be an intersection-focused centre with the

highest intensity of development immediately adjacent to the intersection. The intensity of

development will decrease the further it is located from the intersection.

The Uptown Mixed-Use Centre is comprised of 3 key employment areas, among other designations,

including:

Uptown Mixed-Use Corridor - Employment Area

Uptown Mixed-Use Corridor – General Employment Area

Uptown Mixed-Use Corridor –

Office / Business Park Area

and administration uses, but, excluding automotive

commercial uses;

Office uses;

Research, development and information processing uses;

Light assembly and manufacturing uses compatible with abutting uses;

Residential uses in buildings containing other permitted

uses;

Hotel, conference, convention and banquet facility use; and

Cultural, leisure and recreation uses.

General Employment Area:

See “General Employment Area” Permitted Uses

Office/Business Park Area:

Office uses;

Research, development and information processing uses;

Light assembly and manufacturing uses compatible with abutting uses;

Residential uses; and

Cultural, leisure and recreation uses.

Zoning By-law 2020

Zoning By-law 2020 divides parcels of land throughout the City into several zones. For the purposes of this Study, a number of zones have been used to identify employment lands throughout Burlington. These zones permit a wide range of uses, similar to the designations found in the City’s Official Plan, and have helped to inform the categories of employment lands found in the Employment Lands Inventory. The following list outlines the zones related to employment lands.

Employment Zones: comprised of Business Commercial (BC) and General Employment (GE) uses, which permit an array of warehouse, manufacturing and industrial uses, office uses, hospitality industries such as conference/banquet centres and hotels, automotive businesses, retail commercial and service commercial uses.

Mixed Use Corridor Zones: permits a variety of retail commercial uses including retail/convenience stores and supermarkets, service commercial uses, office uses, hospitality industries, automotive businesses, non-noxious industrial uses, entertainment establishments, and residential uses including apartment buildings, retirement homes, mixed commercial/residential units and townhouses.



10 Appendix D: Consolidated Projections Tables

The following tables, many of which are included in this Study in a revised format, contain the calculations made in making the projections underpinning this report.

Table 1: Step One - Work at Home/No Fixed Place of Work

Policy Scenario

Market Scenario

Employment in 2031 106,000 Employment in 2031 111,000

Current employment (2006 Census) 88,426 Current employment (2006 Census) 88,426

Forecasted increase in employment (to 2031) 17,574 Forecasted increase in employment (to 2031) 22,574

Less "work at home" and "no fixed place of

work" (16%) 2,812

Less "work at home" and "no fixed place of

work" (16%) 3,612

Forecasted increase in employment (to 2031), net

14,762 Forecasted increase in employment (to 2031), net

18,962

Table 2: Step Two - Amount of Employment on Employment Lands Halton Data

Policy Scenario

Market Scenario

Forecasted increase in employment (to 2031), net

14,762 Forecasted increase in employment (to 2031), net 18,962

ELE to non-ELE ratio, from Halton Employment

Survey calculation for Burlington (current ratio) 64%



Forecasted increase in ELE (to 2031), net using 64%

9,448 Forecasted increase in ELE (to 2031), net using 64%

12,136

Forecasted increase in ELE (to 2031), net using sectoral

10,295 Forecasted increase in ELE (to 2031), net using sectoral

13,222



Table 3a: Step Two – Proportion of Employment on Employment Lands, Burlington Data

Policy Scenario Proportion Employees by

Sector (2010)

Employment Land Employment (ELE)

Non-employment Land Employment (non-ELE)

Projected Employees

2006 Proportion

Projected Employees

2006 Proportion

Net projected new employment from Step 1 14,762

Primary Industries 0.1% 0 0% 10 100%

Utilities & Construction 1.1% 3 2% 155 98%

Manufacturing 17.8% 2,632 100% 0 0%

Wholesale Trade 6.6% 980 100% 0 0%

Retail Trade 8.3% 343 28% 882 72%

Transportation & Warehousing 3.0% 442 100% 0 0%

Info/Admin/Arts/Others 7.2% 688 65% 370 35%

Finance, Insurance & Real Estate 8.8% 944 73% 349 27%

Professional Services 11.3% 1,504 90% 167 10%

Management of Companies 15.8% 2,303 99% 23 1%

Education Services 8.7% 64 5% 1,219 95%

Health Care 4.8% 182 26% 519 74%

Accommodation & Food Services 3.6% 129 24% 408 76%

Public Administration 3.0% 81 18% 367 82%

Total employment, by location 10,295 69.7% 4,469 30.3%

Table 3b: Step Two – Proportion of Employment on Employment Lands, Burlington Data

Market Scenario Proportion Employees by

Sector (2010)

Employment Land Employment (ELE)

Non-employment Land Employment (non-ELE)

Projected Employees

2006 Proportion

Projected Employees

2006 Proportion

Net projected new employment from Step 1 18,962

Primary Industries 0.1% 0 0% 13 100%

Utilities & Construction 1.1% 4 2% 199 98%

Manufacturing 17.8% 3,380 100% 0 0%

Wholesale Trade 6.6% 1,259 100% 0 0%

Retail Trade 8.3% 440 28% 1,133 72%

Transportation & Warehousing 3.0% 568 100% 0 0%

Info/Admin/Arts/Others 7.2% 884 65% 476 35%

Finance, Insurance & Real Estate 8.8% 1,213 73% 449 27%

Professional Services 11.3% 1,931 90% 215 10%

Management of Companies 15.8% 2,958 99% 30 1%

Education Services 8.7% 82 5% 1,565 95%

Health Care 4.8% 234 26% 667 74%

Accommodation & Food Services 3.6% 165 24% 524 76%

Public Administration 3.0% 104 18% 472 82%

Total employment, by location 13,222 69.7% 5,741 30.3%



Table 4: Step Three - Determining the Density of Employment and Resulting Land Need

Policy Scenario

Market Scenario

Net forecasted increase in employment (to

2031) 10,295

Net forecasted increase in employment (to

2031) 13,222

Number of square feet of floor area needed 7,402,462 Number of square feet of floor area needed 9,508,545

Required Employment Land (ha) 175 Required Employment Land (ha) 225

Table 5: Analysis Consolidated 2031 - Gross Demand

Policy Scenario

Market Scenario

Forecasted 2031 Employment 106,000 Forecasted 2031 Employment 106,000





Forecasted increase in ELE (to 2031), net using 64%

67,840 Forecasted increase in ELE (to 2031), net using 70% 74,200



Table 6a: Determining the Density of Employment and Resulting Land Need

Policy Scenario ELE Sq.ft per

Employee

# of ELE Employees

Forecasted


Required (ha)

Based on

FSI Ratio Sq.ft Sq.m


Manufacturing 1,003 2,632 2,639,896 245,254 70.07 0.35

Wholesale Trade 1,802 980 1,765,960 164,063 46.89 0.35

Retail Trade 861 343 295,323 27,436 7.84 0.35



Finance, Insurance & Real Estate 315 944 297,360 27,626 5.53 0.5


Management of Companies 366 2,303 842,898 78,308 15.66 0.5


Health Care 472 182 85,904 7,981 1.60 0.5

Accommodation & Food Services 793 129 102,297 9,504 1.90 0.5


Net projected new ELE employment 10,295 7,402,384 687,704 175.0

Land requirement (ha) 175.0

Table 6b: Determining the Density of Employment and Resulting Land Need

Market Scenario ELE Sq.ft per

Employee

# of ELE Employees

Forecasted


Required (ha)

Based on

FSI Ratio Sq.ft Sq.m


Manufacturing 1,003 3,380 3,390,140 314,954 90.00 0.35

Wholesale Trade 1,802 1,259 2,268,718 210,771 60.23 0.35

Retail Trade 861 440 378,840 35,195 10.07 0.35



Finance, Insurance & Real Estate 315 1,213 382,095 35,498 7.10 0.5


Management of Companies 366 2,958 1,082,628 100,579 20.11 0.5


Health Care 472 234 110,448 10,261 2.05 0.5

Accommodation & Food Services 793 165 130,845 12,156 2.44 0.5


Net projected new ELE employment 13,222 9,507,085 883,237 224.8

Land requirement (ha) 224.8

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