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DR. Sutopo Purwo NugrohoHead of Data, Information and Public Relations BNPB

2013 POTENTIAL DISASTER,WEATHER MODIFICATION UPDATES,

AND WEATHER PREDICTION

• Disaster data in Indonesia year 2012 is 1,835 occurrences• Climax for disaster events was in January• No major disaster throughout 2012• 97% of disasters were hydrometeorology (typhoon, floods, landslides,

droughts, and tides)

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• Disaster impact: 481 deaths, 956,192 displacements, dan 54,626 homes damaged (10,998 heavy, 8,104 moderate, and 35,524 light).

• Percentage of disaster events in 2012:1. Typhoon (31%)

2. Floods (29%)

3. Landslides (16%)

4. Droughts (14%) 

VICTIMS, HOUSING AND FACILITY DAMAGES CAUSED BY 2012 DISASTERS

Jenis Kejadian BencanaJumlah Kejadian

Bencana

Korban Kerusakan Rumah Sarana

Kesehatan Sarana

Peribadatan Sarana

PendidikanMeninggal danHilang

Menderita dan Mengungsi

Rusak BeratRusak

Sedang Rusak Ringan Terendam

Gempa Bumi 15 6 577 660 683 2,458 9 52 42

Gempa Bumi Dan Tsunami 1 11 - 5 - - -

Letusan Gunungapi 1 - 192 - - -

Tanah Longsor 291 119 7,153 463 193 698 904 4 14 19

Banjir Dan Tanah Longsor 51 29 64,984 1,037 341 1,048 35,146 1 5 9

Banjir 540 108 604,573 2,168 2,916 8,850 154,377 53 74 295

Kekeringan 264 - 233,167 - - -

Puting Beliung 562 44 34,381 6,122 3,779 21,754 130 21 61 95

Gelombang Pasang 29 1 9,191 325 166 601 158 1 12 14

Kecelakaan Transportasi 21 157 38 8 1 - - -

Kebakaran Lahan Dan Hutan 50 - 400 1 - 1 1

Konflik/Kerusuhan Sosial 10 6 1,536 214 26 109 - - -

Total 1,835 481 956,192 10,998 8,104 35,524 190,715 89 219 475

2013 Disaster Predictions

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Geological Disaster Prediction

1. Earthquake  and Tsunami disasters cannot be predicted. They are instantenous. 

2. Tsunamis are heavily affected by earthquakes (magnitude, depth, and source of the earthquake).

3. Volcano eruption cannot be predicted for long‐term. Few volcano eruption characteristics have changed. There are:a) 5 mounts with Alert Level III: Raung, Rokatenda, Lokon, Karang 

etang, Ijen

b) 16 mounts with Alert Level II: Seulewah Agam, Ibu, Kerinci, Ili Lewotolo, Sangeangapi, Gamalama, Papandayan, Dukuno, Marapi, Sinabung, Bromo, Soputan, Semeru, Krakatau, Gamkonora, Talang

c) Lokon is estimated to still contain energy for eruption as what just occurred recently

Earthquake data: Engdahl 1964 - 2005

Indonesian Seismic-Tectonic Map

• Earthquake source: sub‐duction region and in‐land cecarian• There are 386 city/districts with 157 million lives living inhigh‐prone earthquake areas in Indonesia

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Location of Earthquakesthat cause Tsunami

Mentawai 2010

Aceh 2012

• Earthquake sources: subduction zones, beyond subduction, volcanoc eruption in thesea, and tsunami from outside Indonesian territory

• 172 tsunami occurred in Indonesia throughout year 1629‐2012• 233 city/districts in Indonesia with 5 million lives exist in tsunami‐prone areas

POSSIBILITY OF EARTHQUAKE SOURCES IN FUTURE

Professor Omer AYDAN of Tokai University, Japan

issued warning

Existed big seismic gapbetween tectonic zones 2007and 2005. Estimated magnitudecould be more than 8.7. Theearthquake will hit WestSumatra and possibility ofTsunami to hit Padang City isquite high.

GROUND SHAKING WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT BUT

FOLLOWED BY

TSUNAMI

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Simelue

Siberut - Kep. Batu

Pagai

Selat Sunda

Pantai Selatan Jateng

Selat Bali

SEISMIC GAPALONG SUBDUCTION ZONE BENIOFF-WADATI

SUMATERA-JAWA-BALI (earthquake records since 1964, update 11-09-2009)

Ade Edward/11/09/2009Sumber : www.csem-emsc.org

Seismic Gap : Regions within Benioff-Wadati

zone are center of earthquakes but earthquakes

had not occurred within the last decade.

This region has the highest change of higher earthquakes.

Every Seismic Gap regions has earthquake historical

records with damaging effects (Magnitude > 7 RS)

EARTHQUAKES CANNOT BE PREDICTED, BUT FORECASTS OF EARTHQUAKE CENTERS CAN BE DONE ACCURATELY WITH SEISMIC-GAP APPROACHES. ONLY LIMITATION IS THAT THE WHEN IT WILL OCCUR CANNOT BE ACCURATELY PREDICTED.

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Sta. 01

Sta. 02

Sta. 03

Tsunami Model Product of Mega-Thrust Mentawai

Earthquake potential 8.9 SR, followed by tsunami 20-35 minutes 

later in Padang City with 6‐10 meters height and 2‐5 km in‐land.

Exposed lives reach 1.3 million lives. Using worst scenario, estimated 39,321 lost of lives, 52,637 missing, and 103,225 wounded. Teluk Bayur sea-port, Minangkabau

airport and others destroyed.

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4 Programs in Masterplan:

1. Strengthening chain of tsunami early warning development of sirenes, information, earthquake detections, etc.

2. Development and increase of temporary evacuation locations shelter development, evacuation routes, beacons, socializations, etc.

3. Strengthening of preparedness capacity and DRR development of pusdalops, resilient villages, rules, drills, logistics, equipment, contingency plans, etc.

4. Development of autonomous disaster industries instrumentation industries, SME (Small and Medium Enterprise).Congestion in Medan-

Banda Aceh street, nearPunge bridge, Banda Aceh

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Implementation of Tsunami DRR Masterplan

PRIORITY AREAS FOR TSUNAMI MASTERPLAN 2013 IMPLEMENTED

For year 2013• Priority in 51 city/districts• Budget Rp 1 trillion

For year 2014• Budget Rp 2.1 trillion

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Hydro‐meteorological Disaster Prediction1. Hydro‐meteorological disasters (floods, land‐slides, droughts, forest 

hot‐spots and typhoons) will dominate 2013.

2. BMKG declared normal rainy season. Until May 2013 rain condition = normal (50%), El Nino (32%), La Nina (18%)  Southeast Sulawesi, Florest and Lombok rainfall below normal (10‐15%).

3. Typhoon potentials until Maret‐April 2013.

4. Flood and landslide potentials until March 2013. Climax for floods and landslides January‐February 2013.

5. Cold lava flood potentials in Mount Merapi (77 million cubic meter), Gamalama, Bromo, Lokon and Soputan until March 2013.

6. Forest hot‐spots potentials throughout drought season in 8 provinces: North Sumatra, Riau, Jambi, South Sumatra, West Kalimantan, Middle Kalimantan, South Kalimantan and East Kalimantan.

7. Drought potentials throughout Agust‐October in Java, Bali, Flores and regions with water deficit.

Trend of Typhoon Disasters

• Trend of typhoons prone to increase each year • Future risks will increase along with the increase of global climate change

and anthropogenic• Typhoon early warning system is yet to be available, as such information

dissemination to the community is limited—BNPB, BMKG, and BPPT have begun discussions to seek solutions

1430

6547

84

122

166

350

402

447

562

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

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Risk Map for Typhoons in Indonesia

• Trend for typhoons has increased. Throughout 2002‐2012 increase by40 folds.

• There are 115 million lives living in 404 city/districts that are inIndonesian moderate‐high typhoon prone areas

• The spread of high‐prone typhoons are along Western Sumatra, JavaCoast, Flores, Southern Sulawesi

• The typhoon‐prone areas cover cities and villages

Sumber : Dian T. Scidel, et all

75% of Atmosphere’s gases are in the troposphere ;N2 – 58%O2 – 15%CO2 

H2O0,75%

ᔑ Global Warming!• Implication of the expansion of 

Stratospheric circulation

• Distribution of ozone

Poorly understood

The rate of expansion :2° ‐ 4.8° latitude per 25 km 

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Why typhoons are increasing?

Drop of evaporated water and the increase of Cumulonimbus clouds (from 13,000 feet to 18,000 feet) causing greater energy during down‐

draft process, which result in typhoons and extreme rains

Weather Modification

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Weather Modification Technolgoy is man‐made effort in controlling water resources in atmosphere to increase rainfall and reduce rainfall intensity on selected areas 

minimize natural disaster caused by weather and climate by taking advantage the weather parameters

Purpose of weather modification

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• By seeding the clouds using seeder tool size of 10 – 100 μmwill increase efficiency of impact and cause the rain to fall earlier and faster

• If “jumping process” mechanism is applied to clouds in upwind areas (that will enter target area), those clouds will rain before entering target area. As such, “jumping process mechanism” will reduce rainfall in target area.

• If we include smooth seeding materials into newly developed clouds, these material will absorb water vapors and develop tiny grains that will compete with existing cloud vapor grains. This method will prevent the development of cloud (competition mechanism)

Weather Modification Technology competition methodology (seeding with seeding materials <2 μm in targeted area)

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POSKO Pondok Cabe dan CurugGBG MenaraGBGPosmet

Weather Modification Technology to Reduce Rainfall That Cause Floods in Jakarta

Jumping Process

Weather modification in Jakarta and surrounding throughout 26 January – 27 February 2013 had reduced rainfall. How much reduction in rainfall is being

researched

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Cloud Seeding Aircraft , South Africa

Example of launching of powdery agents from SU‐30 seeding aircraft , Rusia

Olympic organizers fired a barrage of 1,110 rockets into the evening

sky to make sure the 2008 Olympic opening ceremony was

precipitation-free.

Cloud seeding in China is conducted by anti-air gun turret and rockets aimed at the clouds. Even during the opening of Olimpic 2008, 1,100 rocket were shot to ensure no rain during the event

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EL NINO / LA NINA

INDONESIA SST

A S I A

A S I A

1

2

3DIPOLE MODE POSITIVE/ DIPOLE MODE NEGATIVE1

2

1

3

2

BMKG

Dipole Mode (0C)

SST Indonesia 

(0C)

0.4 positive > 0.5 warm

‐0.4 negative

<‐0.5 cool

El Nino            La Nina

0.5 – 1 weak

‐1 – ‐0.5 weak

1 – 2 Moderate

‐2 – ‐1Moderate

> 2 strong <‐2 strong

1963197219821997

3

EL NINO, DIPOLE MODE

LA NINA, DIPOLE MODE

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Three Climate Controllers in Indonesia

Rain and dry seasons in Indonesia are affected by 3 climate controller: El Nino/La Nina in Pacific Ocean, water level temperature on Indonesian waters, and dipole mode in Indian Ocean.  If the Pacific and 

Indian Ocean are warmer,  while the waters in Indonesia are colder, Indonesia will dry up. The oppossite, if Indonesian waters are warmer there will be wet season. Floods and droughts in Indonesia are affected 

by this factor.

2013 Drought Season Forecast

1. Start of Drought Season 2013 usually starts April – May 2013

2. When compared against average from 30 years (1981‐2010), most of 2013 Drought Season start later than usual

3. Rain characteristics during 2013 Drought Season in most regions Normal. 

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Anticipate the Impact of 2013 Drought

• BNPB is in the process of preparing contingeny plan against droughts and forest hot‐spots.

• Preparing weathe modification and water bombing for forest hot‐spots in 8 provinces

• Provide on‐call financial BPBD support to handle droughts (clean water droping, water pumps, etc.)

• 2013 BNPB on‐call budget = Rp. 1 trillion

BADAN NASIONAL PENANGGULANGAN BENCANA

Jl. Ir.  H.Juanda No. 36 Jakarta Pusat 10120

Telp.  : 021‐3458400

Fax.  : 021‐3458500

Email  : contact@bnpb.go.id

Website  : www.bnpb.go.id

Facebook : www.facebook.com/bnpb.indonesia 

Twitter  : @BNPB_Indonesia

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