dr. robert geller - a seismologist looks at nuclear power plant safety issues in japan

7/27/2019 Dr. Robert Geller - A seismologist looks at nuclear power plant safety issues in Japan

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A seismologist looks at nuclear

power plant safety issues inJapan

Robert J. Geller (Univ. of Tokyo)

Joint Meeting of the U.S.-Japan Roundtable andthe Forum on Energy Editorial Board

October 24, 2013

Washington, DC


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Robert J. Geller

C.V. US citizen; permanent resident of Japan

B.S. (1973, Geophysics), Ph.D. (1977) from Caltech

First tenured non-Japanese faculty member at Univ.

of Tokyo (Assoc. Prof., 1984-99; Prof., 1999-)

Research interests

seismic wave propagation, Earth structure,

earthquake sources

predictability/non-predictability of earthquakes

policy-related issues (seismic/tsunami risks of NPPs)

Refereed publications

http://www.researcherid.com/rid/A-1753-2009 2
http://www.researcherid.com/rid/A-1753-2009http://www.researcherid.com/rid/A-1753-2009http://www.researcherid.com/rid/A-1753-2009http://www.researcherid.com/rid/A-1753-2009http://www.researcherid.com/rid/A-1753-2009http://www.researcherid.com/rid/A-1753-2009http://www.researcherid.com/rid/A-1753-2009


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The big picture

March 2011

Tohoku earthquake (M9)

Fukushima Dai-ichi NPP accident

October 2013 (31 months later)

Only 2 (of 50) NPPs operating*

*But both now shut down for routine maintenance

New Japan NRA (Nuclear Regulation Agency)

dysfunctional

No progress towards resolving key issues

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What should be done?

Change framework to risk assessment Nothing in life is 100.00000% safe

Learn from failure (Fukushima Dai-Ichi)

Tsunami countermeasures were insufficient

Learn from success (Onagawa) Earthquake-resistance of NPPs was strong;

Tsunami countermeasures were successful

Reform NRA

Adopt regulatory practices from abroad

Use probabilistic approach, not deterministic4


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The new minister of industry

just said (in a TV interview)

that he wouldnt approve

restarting NPPs until the

experts certify safety.

Experts should be tasked

with assessing the risks and

uncertainties. The publicand political leaders should

make the final decision.

Dec. 30, 2012

@rjgeller

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Photos: P. Yanev

Refineries, other plants, and storage tanks on landfill are at risk!

Risk of liquefaction, fires, spills, and plant failures

Risk of dependence on imports of oil and gas

Non-nuclear risks cant be neglected!

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NRA natural hazard standards

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Earthquakeground motion

Tsunamis(especially on

Sea of Japan coast)

Active Faults

A more balanced approach is needed!


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The tsunami riskto NPPs on the

Sea of Japan

coast must not

be overlooked!Manju eratsunami

(1026)

Figure: V. Gusiakov

Genkai NPP

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Genkai NPP (Saga Prefecture)

July 16, 2011

Could the Genkai NPP withstand a tsunami

similar to that in 1993 at Okushiri Island? 9


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Earthquake hazard maps

The good news:

We have methods for making seismic hazard

maps

The bad news:

These methods havent been verified

The worse news:

The hazard maps dont agree with the data

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Base map (Japanese

govt. hazard map) vs.actual seismicity

since 1979

Regions rated as

especially hazardous

have been quiet

Regions with damaging

quakes (1995 Kobe,2011 Tohoku, etc.)

were not rated as at

high hazard level

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Geller, 2011

(Nature)


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Need for improved

communication Recent progress in earth science

We know more about natural hazards

We also know more about the uncertainties of

our knowledge

Poor information flow in Japan

Nuclear industry needs better communication

with top-class geoscience researchers

Japan NRA actions should reflect recent

research

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13/16

Where do we go from here?

My suggestions

Partial Restart of NPPs

Rank NPPs asA, B, or C rankA Rank: Restart now

B Rank: Restart after safety upgrade

C Rank : Decommission

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Adopt a unified energy policy

Conservation

Renewable energy

Restart NPPs after appropriate checks Transparent procedures

Restore public confidence

Unify 50 Hz (Kanto) and 60 H (Kansai)

power generation to a single national

standard

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Political Problems in Japan

Paralysis of decision-making under previous DPJ

government

Reluctance to take political responsibility by present LDP

government

Inability of power companies and industry groups to

make a fresh start that will convince the public

Teething problems of NRA

Must escape safe/unsafe dichotomy Decision-making must be based on

quantitative risk assessment

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Thank you for your attention

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dr. robert geller - a seismologist looks at nuclear power plant safety issues in japan

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