Dr. Lajos CSEPI(State Secretary for Transport )

Hungary

CLIMATE CHANGE: ENERGY AND TRANSPORT

Issues, challenges and strategies in Hungary

Contents

• Projected climate change in Hungary (Carpathian Basin)• Potential impacts of climate change on transportation• Adaptation: incorporating climate change into transport

plans, programmes and policies• Mitigation: Strategies and Instruments

• CO2-emissions by sector and subsector in EU-27 and in Hungary

• Guiding principles in the Hungarian Energy Policy relevant for climate change

• Conclusions• Proposals 2

Projected climate change in Hungary

Reference period: climate of years from 1961 to 1990 Source: KTI (Institute for Transport Sciences) 3

Potential Impacts of Climate Change onTransportation Focusing on Road Transport (1)

1. Main effects: – Increase of very hot days and heat waves – More frequent precipitation events – Increasing frequency and intensity of strong winds

2. Summarized results: warming of Hungary’s climate will be 20–25% greater than Earth’s average, especially in summer

3. Affected infrastructure: – flooding of roads, railways and airports – increase of temperature of road surface and rails in summer (decrease of working load of pavement)

4Source: KTI (Institute for Transport Sciences)

4. Impacts on traffic safety: – Increasing intensity of side winds on roads – Increasing intensity of weather fronts – Increasing heat waves

5. Change of habits and demands of transport(passengers and goods)

Source: KTI (Institute for Transport Sciences)

5

Potential Impacts of Climate Change onTransportation Focusing on Road Transport (2)

Adaptation: incorporating of climate changeinto transport plans, programmes and polices

1. More strategic, risk based approaches are needed for investment decisions of redesigning and retrofitting transport infrastructure

2. Inventory is needed of critical infrastructure (focusing on roads) affected by climate change

3. Integration of information on extreme weather into the public information system

4. Development of programmes for adaptation strategies for the near and medium terms regarding vehicle fleets and road infrastructures

5. Integrate emergency planning into operation6. Large scale use of air condition in vehicles

6Source: KTI (Institute for Transport Sciences)

Mitigation strategies and instruments

I.Strategies:1. Carbon tax systems2. CO2 emission trading3. Evaluation of CO2 reduction4. Harmonisation of policy for energy, climate change and

sustainability5. Improvement of safety of energy supply by

diversification of motor fuels6. Improvement of energy efficiency of vehicles

(20% by 2020)7. Reduction of greenhouse gases (20% by 2020)8. Increase of share of renewable energy (biofuels)

(20% by 2020) 7Source: KTI (Institute for Transport Sciences)

II.Specific instruments for the transport sector:Direct effects:

1. Fuel taxation (special carbon tax)2. Vehicle taxation based on CO2 emission3. User charges for infrastructure use with differentiation

or mark-ups for CO2

4. Regulation and standards

8

Source: KTI (Institute for Transport Sciences)

Indirect effects:

1. Development of transport infrastructure2. Planning of land-use, influencing transport demands3. Development new technologies of vehicles

9Source: KTI (Institute for Transport Sciences)

Source: KTI (Institute for Transport Sciences) 10

Source: KTI (Institute for Transport Sciences) 11

Source: KTI (Institute for Transport Sciences) 12

13

CO2 Emission in Hungary by Road Transport

Source: KTI(Institute forTransportSciences)0

2 000 000

4 000 000

6 000 000

8 000 000

10 000 000

12 000 000

14 000 000

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

em

iss

ion

(to

ns

)

Source: KTI (Institute for Transport Sciences) 14

Guiding Principles in the Hungarian Energy Policy(2008–2020) Relevant for Climate Change(40/2008. (IV. 17.) Parliamentary Decree)

• The Hungarian energy policy has to contribute to the sustainable development by means of decrease of specific energy consumption and increase of renewable energy sources (Point 4)

• The harmony between the Hungarian policies of energy and climate change has to be guaranteed (Point 5)

• The framing and implementation of the Hungarian transport policy has to correspond to the energy policy especially regarding the decrease of harmful emissions of transport and increase of biofuels (Point 6)

Source: KTI (Institute for Transport Sciences) 15

• Hungary supports the UNECE World Forum for Harmonization of Vehicle Regulations Strategy for CO2 reduction:

“From fossil fuels to H2 and electricity”• Short term (2015)

– Energy efficiency by engine technology, TPMS, rolling resistance ….

– Use of sustainable bio-fuels • Mid term (2015-2025)

– Plug-in hybrid vehicles in the market• Long term (2025-2040)

– Electric and Hydrogen vehicles in the market• Sustainable and cost-effective generation of electricity

and production of H2 is needed

Source: KTI (Institute for Transport Sciences)

Conclusions/1• The transport’s, especially the road transport’s share of

CO2 emission is determinant and increasing• The regulations on CO2 emission of passenger cars can

be considered as first positive signal on the roadmap for the CO2 reduction policy of EU

• The light duty and heavy duty trucks have a large share in the CO2 emissions of road transport but no regulation in this respect up to now

• The rapid increase of CO2 emission of the new member countries can be prevented by replacement of their old vehicle fleets, and by planned influencing of import of old, used vehicles having high fuel consumption

Source: KTI (Institute for Transport Sciences)

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Conclusions/2

• The present economic crisis offers possibilities for investments in this way for renewal of old vehicle fleets thus for introducing new efficient technologies

• The climate change will generate qualitative problems but not quantitative ones for the home transport

Source: KTI (Institute for Transport Sciences)

18

Proposals• Efficiency targets and requirements have to be

introduced for light duty and heavy duty trucks and city buses

• Testing procedures and efficiency targets have to be elaborated for air conditioning systems used in vehicles as well as for tyres

• The replacement of old road vehicles has to be supported EU-wide

• Information of forecast on weather extremes (short-range and medium-range) has to be improved and realise in international cooperation as soon as possible

Source: KTI (Institute for Transport Sciences)

19