dr. john beckford vis. loughborough

“Systems, Modelling and Analyses”

Dr. John BeckfordVis. Prof. STEaPP, UCL

Vis. Prof. CIM, Loughborough

[email protected]

Copyright © John Beckford 1993-2014

• Evolution of Systems Thinking• Systems

– Perspectives and Methodologies

• Modelling– Systems of Interest, Boundaries– Recursive Systems – Vertical and Horizontal Constraints

• Analyses– Infrastructure Interdependencies– Surfing the Waves– Cascade Failure

• Whither the Future– R&D – Infrastructure UK, ICIF, IBuild, TRaCCA, ITRC– New Business Models

Systems, Modelling and Analyses


• Eastern Philosophy – 4500 years– Buddhism– The Tao– Sikhism– Hinduism

• Western Philosophy – 2400 years– Plato, 390 BC – Kybernetes– Bogdanov, 1913– Von Bertallanfy, 1928 – General Systems Theory

Systems


• Eastern Philosophy – 4500 years– Buddhism– The Tao– Sikhism– Hinduism

• Western Philosophy – 2400 years– Plato, 390 BC – Kybernetes– Bogdanov, 1913– Von Bertallanfy, 1928 – General Systems Theory

• ‘Nature did not consist of physics, chemistry and biology,: these were arbitrary divisions, man‐made, merely a convenient way of carving up the task of investigating Nature’s mysteries’

– Peter Checkland, Systems Thinking, Systems Practice, Wiley, 1981

Systems


ICT

Water Waste

Energy Transport

Demand

Demand Demand

Demand

Energy Supply

Demand Management

Critical Communications

Demand Management

Demand Management


Demand Management

Depends on

Systemic Interaction


Energy Waste WaterICTTransport

The Elements



ICT

Energy

Transport Water

Waste

Energy Waste WaterICTTransport

The Elements

The Interactions



• Understanding Systemic Thinking• Interaction

– The existence of ‘system’ is rooted in the connectivity of one element with others – this constitutes a network which can be dealt with in its totality – it is a ‘system’

– Key ideas: » Von Bertalanffy, Wiener, Checkland, Beer, Ackoff, Forrester

• Interdependency– The functioning of one element of the infrastructure depends on one (or more) other elements

– Issues cannot be resolved in isolation• Emergent properties

– Systems exhibit properties that belong only to the system – not to any of its elements

» Flight



Systemic Interaction -flight

Airframe Propulsion

ControlSystem

ManagementSystem


Systemic Interaction -flight

Airframe Propulsion

ControlSystem

EnergySupplySystem

ManagementSystem

MaintenanceSystem


Systemic Interaction –safe flights

EnergySupplySystem

ATCSystem

Airframe Propulsion

ControlSystem

ManagementSystem

MaintenanceSystem


Systemic Interaction –regulated airspace

EnergySupplySystem

ATCSystem

Airframe Propulsion

ControlSystem

ManagementSystem

MaintenanceSystemRegulatory

System


• Why is it a problem?• Current paradigm

– (Relatively) linear, reductionist thinking– Solutions to THIS issue are developed in isolation from THOSE issues– But THOSE issues are interdependent with THIS one



• Why is it a problem?• Sometimes, rather than solve issues they are moved or displaced:

– The NHS displaces patients from one budget holder to another» changes in GP contracts re out of hours surgery has displaced local practice volumes to A&E departments

» the number of people treated is, roughly, the same

• Sometimes, issues in one area impose a cost burden in another –which is beyond our capacity to control

– Healthcare for those involved in road accidents imposes costs on the NHS not the DSA



Systems Methodologies

Unitary Pluralist CoerciveSimple

Complex

From: Creative Problem Solving, Flood & Jackson, 1991


Unitary Pluralist CoerciveSimple Operational Research

Systems Analysis

Systems Engineering

Systems DynamicsComplex





Systems Analysis

Systems Engineering

Systems DynamicsComplex Viable System Diagnosis

General System Theory

Socio‐Technical Systems

Contingency Theory





Systems Analysis

Systems Engineering

Systems Dynamics

Social System Design

Strategic Assumption Surfacing and Testing

Complex Viable System Diagnosis



Contingency Theory





Systems Analysis

Systems Engineering

Systems Dynamics






Contingency Theory

Interactive Planning

Soft Systems Methodology





Systems Analysis

Systems Engineering

Systems Dynamics



Critical Systems Heuristics




Contingency Theory

Interactive Planning

Soft Systems Methodology




• The Good, the Bad and the Disinterested– Ideas around for about 80 years– Offers models which are both ends and means oriented – organisational,

social and political perspectives• VSM, SSM, Systems Dynamics, SAST, CSH

– ‘Systems’ or ‘holistic’ thinking beginning to be adopted– But not core in Academic or Professional Education

• It is easier to work within the established paradigm than change the thinking (Machiavelli)

• There is a dearth of truly systemic thinking in our approaches to problem solving

• This may well exacerbate our challenges as systemic interactions become more complex

– More widely – the language of systems is being used – but without meaning!• “Humpty Dumpty paid his works extra to make them mean what he chose, but he couldn’t change the nature of the things that they described”

Systems Thinking in the UK


ICT

Water

Waste

EnergyTransport

Competitionfor water

Fossil, NuclearHydro

Energy from AD waste

FloodPrevention

Non-waterBased energy

FloodMitigation

Building StdsEnforcement

WaterMeters

IncentiviseEff Devices

Telemetry SystemsFlood MgmtEvac. Co-ordinationBuilding & Ops SystemsDemand/Consumption DataLeakage MgmtSpill MonitoringAppliance Efficiency

HouseholdSuperMeters

EnviroInfo System

PublicInformation

Power for pumpsplant, telemetrysystems control

Fuel & PowerRaw Materials

Waterways (Canals,Rivers, Shipping)

Navigation/RoutingInfrastructure

Use of rivers & seas

Oil, GasElectricity

Refineries, Refuelling IF,Distribution Systems, Depots

Power Stations, Charging PointsDistribution Systems

Grid IF

Control SystemsRail SignallingATC (NATS)Road Traffic ControlRadarGPSCamera/Enf. NetworksMobile & Fixed Line NetworksShip & Air RadioEmergency Service BandsScheduling/Timetabling Systems

Raw Material Imports

FloodingHydro/Tidal

Cooling (Inland)

Reservoirs &Aquifers

Energy to/fromwaste

Competitionfor space



ICT

Water Waste

Energy Transport


67 Interactions


ICT

Water Waste

Energy Transport



• “A model is neither true nor false, it is more or less useful”– Stafford Beer, Diagnosing the System, Wiley, 1985

Systems Modelling


• “A model is neither true nor false, it is more or less useful”– Stafford Beer, Diagnosing the System, Wiley, 1985

• Considerations– What is the ‘purpose’ of the model?– What are the boundaries to the system under consideration?– What constraints apply to the model?– What are the different ‘dimensions’ that might apply?– What approach or technique is most useful?

• Unitary – Pluralistic – Coercive• Simple – Complex

Systems Modelling


The Perpetually Failing Problem Solving Engine


Continuously DissolvingThe Problem




Idealised VSM

Client Model of Problem

Client

Emergent Model of Problem

Lead Consultant

Shared Model of Problem Agreed

Yes

No

Prepare a Proposal

Check Understanding

Outline Solution

Check Solution

What has been misunderstood?



Phase One

Project based on Shared Model

of Problem

Client Model of Problem

Client with

Problem

Lead Consultant

FROM PHASE ONE Revalidate Proposal

and Required Outcomes

Commence Project

Detailed Model

Outline Solution

Confirm Scope & Cost

Confirmation

Phase Two

Prototype

Assessment

Cost/Benefit

Confirmation

Phase Three

Implement

Revise/Edit

Finalise

Confirmation

Phase Four

Validate

Assess Satisfaction

Advise Further Needs

Confirmation

Client without Problem

Spatial PlanningData Infrastructure

DampingPeaks

Prediction

DisasterPrevention

Alignment of Contract Cycles

FiscalEfficiency

EconomicEfficiency

Investment inRenewables

Transport

Energy

ICT

Water

Waste

JobCreation

CriticalSkills

Better Useof Data

Inter-disciplinary(Systems)

SkillsRapid

Capacity Growth

LowerCosts

Use ofSubsidy

EnhanceNetworks

Availability Of capital

Demands for:Resilience and Sustainability


• We do not ‘analyse’ systems we ‘synthesise’ them

• Our need is to understand interaction and interdependency

Analyses



Synthesis

ICT

Water Waste

Energy Transport

Demand

Demand Demand

Demand

Energy Supply

Demand Management


Demand Management

Demand Management


Demand Management

Depends on


Synthesis

ICT

Energy

Transport Water

Waste

Energy Waste WaterICTTransportNetwork

Systemic

Asset PumpingStations Reservoirs

Recycling Centre

AnaerobicDigestion Plant

Exchanges Masts

Generation Sub-Stations

Exchanges Masts

PumpsPipesCables SwitchesValvesRegulators ControlSystemsTurbinesArtefact

Parts

Sub-Assemblies

Parts

Sub-Assemblies

ComponentParts

Sub-Assemblies

Parts

Sub-Assemblies

Parts

Sub-Assemblies


Synthesis

Policy & Standards

Infrastructure

Demand

Licensing, Ownership, Governance, Direction, Constraints

Supply & Delivery Systems, Owners, Business Systems

Industrial, Commercial and Domestic Users

EnvironmentalChange

UK GovernmentWAG

EU Gov

Economy

Safety

ScottishParliament

DfT DECC

EfficiencyCost

Corporatelobbying Global

business

CompetitionPolicy

Delivery/ownership

Power/energy/Telecomms co.s

DefraORR

BERR

HA

LAs

RDAs

TransportScotland

Airportoperators

TOCs

NetworkRail

HS 1/HS 2

ROSCOsCyclingEngland

RDAs Port owners

NI Assembly

PTEs

TfL

Timetabling/scheduling

Spatial usage patterns

Legacyinfrastructure

Land usepatterns

Airspaceusage

Security

Skills Energysources

Technology

Transportsubstitution

Human behaviour

Navigation

CommunitiesShippingchannels

AccessibilityInternational

bodiesIMO ICAO

ISO

Policy targets/framing Demographics

Logisticspolicy

Consumers

DCLGIPC/

Planning Inspectorate


Synthesis

Policy & Standards

Demand

Licensing, Ownership, Governance, Direction, Constraints

Industrial, Commercial and Domestic Users

Cycling

Cycleways

Supporting Infrastructure

Light Rail

Track / Road

Vehicles

Intersections

Support systems

Energy Infrastructure

Terminals

Heavy Rail

Track

Vehicles

Intersections

Support systems


Terminals

Underground

Vehicles

Track/ Tunnels/

Intersections

Support systems


Terminals Road Transport

Road

Vehicles

Intersections

Support systems


Terminals

Aviation

Airspace

Vehicles

Airport

Support systems


PeripheralInfrastructure

Shipping

Vehicles

Shipping lanes /

channels

Support systems


Port PeripheralInfrastructure

Walking

Walkways

Pipelines

Goods/wastePipelines

Terminals

Off road Infrastructure


Synthesis

ICT

Water Waste

Energy Transport

enables depends on

Commerce

Defence Civil Admin

Health Education

Society


Synthesis ‐ Society

• Inadequate traditional economic modelling for growth– Considered individual elements of infrastructure– Picked up co‐location, sharing– Did not appear to model interdependency from either a performance, resilience or

economic perspective– Considered economic benefits of ‘THIS’ but not the consequences for ‘THESE’

• So, how to address?• Need a model that accepts and values interdependency• Also need to understand that:

– time is an important element– economic benefits do not respect either the budgetary or electoral cycles



• “The UK Infrastructure is a network of networks” CST 2009

• Each element‐EnergyTransportICTWaterWaste‐ depends to some degree

on the others• Might models that deal with

interdependency provide the feedstock for economic modelling?

ICT

Water Waste

Energy Transport

Demand

Demand Demand

Demand

Demand Management


Demand Management

Demand Management


Demand Management

Depends on



• Each element has• an installed capability• a level of productive activity• activity/capability = utilisation

Activity

Capability

Utilisation



• Each element has• an installed capability• a level of productive activity• activity/capability = utilisation• unrealised potential

Effectiveness

Activity

Capability

Utilisation

Potential

Latency



• Each element has• an installed capability• a level of productive activity• activity/capability = utilisation• unrealised potential• potential/capability = latency• latency*utilisation = effectiveness

Effectiveness

Activity

Capability

Utilisation

Potential

Latency




• When utilisation = capability latency must be exploited

• Increased activity without investment generates growth

Effectiveness

Activity

Capability

Utilisation

Potential

Latency






• Effectiveness = ROI?

Effectiveness

Activity

Capability

Utilisation

Potential

Latency







ICT

Water Waste

Energy Transport

Demand

Demand Demand

Demand

Demand Management


Demand Management

Demand Management


Demand Management

Depends on



• When the current capability and potential is fully exploited what happens?– or failing or in need of replacement

• The economic case is hard to make for the replacement or upgrade• Locally it costs too much and in itself does not provide sufficient additional

value• Perhaps, the economic benefit is embedded in its enabling role?• Perhaps, the benefit can be measured:

– elsewhere in the network of networks of the primary infrastructure– in the secondary infrastructure– in societal rather than economic benefit



• When the current capability and potential is fully exploited what happens?– or failing or in need of replacement

• The economic case is hard to make for the replacement or upgrade• Locally it costs too much and in itself does not provide sufficient additional

value• Perhaps, the economic benefit is embedded in its enabling role?• Perhaps, the benefit can be measured:

– elsewhere in the network of networks of the primary infrastructure– in the secondary infrastructure– in societal rather than economic benefit

• We need to understand investment and growth in a systemic sense



• Infrastructure investment works in waves over time:– Wave 1: Design and build– Wave 2: Maintain– Wave 3: Exploit



• Wave 1 belongs to the infrastructure owner– Lasts the life of the phase (2‐10 years)– Enables growth but in itself perhaps adds little direct value– Growth arises primarily at the location of the designers and builders?




• Wave 2 also belongs to the infrastructure owner– Lasts the life of the element itself (5‐100 years?)– Supports/enables long term economic growth locally and elsewhere– Maintenance spend is relatively local – delivers some level of local benefit




• Wave 2 also belongs to the infrastructure owner– Lasts the life of the element itself (5‐100 years?)– Supports/enables long term economic growth locally and elsewhere– Maintenance spend is relatively local – delivers some level of local benefit

• Wave 3 belongs to infrastructure users– Lasts the life of the primary element– May have multiple cycles– Will have multiple exploiters– Benefit is perhaps measured in:

• the exploiting infrastructure NOT the primary infrastructure• the social infrastructure – education, commerce, civil administration, healthcare, defence



ICT

Water Waste

Energy Transport

Wave 1 Build



ICT

Water Waste

Energy Transport

enables depends on

Commerce

Defence Civil Admin

Health Education

Wave 1

Wave 2 Maintain

Build



ICT

Water Waste

Energy Transport

enables depends on

Commerce

Defence Civil Admin

Health Education

Society

Wave 1

Wave 2

Wave 3

Maintain

Build

Exploit



ICT

Water Waste

Energy Transport

enables depends on

Commerce

Defence Civil Admin

Health Education

Society



• Suggestion is that we need to develop and adopt systemic economic models to synthesise and understand how to realise the potential of:– Economic and social benefit from:

• Individual entities• Co‐located and co‐dependent entities• Interdependent networks• Networks of Networks

– Develop and test systemic hypotheses in economic terms– Address the challenges of:

• integrated investment by fragmented owners• long‐term, inter‐generational infrastructure investment• short term electoral and budget cycle thinking

Effectiveness

Activity

Capability

Utilisation

Potential

Latency



Interdependent Network Failure Modelling


• Given that the UK Infrastructure is a ‘network of networks’, is it feasible to:




– model the interdependencies




– model the interdependencies– represent the results graphically




– model the interdependencies– model how failure propagates across

• individual networks (e.g. gas, electricity)• multiple networks (e.g. gas AND electricity)

– represent the results graphically






– represent the results graphically– Identify affected populations






– represent the results graphically– Identify affected populations– develop a vulnerability and/or criticality index for:

• the individual assets• the networks



Supply

SupplyVulnerability

Asset Vulnerability

EnvironmentalVulnerabilityEnvironmental

ThisAsset Onward Supply

Onward Delivery

Influence: Outfluence:THIS Asset depends on THAT THAT Asset depends on THIS

Process ProcessVulnerability


Supply

SupplyVulnerability

Asset Vulnerability



Onward Delivery

Asset Criticality

Outfluence:THAT Asset depends on THIS


Asset Criticality = Σ (Onward Asset Dependence X Onward Asset Criticality)


Influence:THIS Asset depends on THAT

SupplyVulnerability

Asset Vulnerability



Onward Delivery

Asset Criticality



SupplyDependency

XSupply Asset Vulnerability


Supply Criticality = Asset Criticality X Supply Vulnerability



SupplyVulnerability

Asset Vulnerability



Onward Delivery

Asset Criticality


ProcessVulnerability

Supply

Maintenance, etc.Routines


Supply Criticality = Asset Criticality X Supply VulnerabilityProcess Criticality = Asset Criticality X Process Vulnerability



SupplyVulnerability

Asset Vulnerability

EnvironmentalVulnerability


Onward Delivery

Asset Criticality



Supply

Environmental Risk

Asset Resistance

Process



Environmental Criticality = Asset Criticality X Environmental VulnerabilityCopyright © John Beckford 1993-2014


SupplyVulnerability

Asset Vulnerability



Onward Delivery

Asset Criticality



Supply

Process

Environmental



Environmental Criticality = Asset Criticality X Environmental VulnerabilityAsset Vulnerability = Max of Supply/Maintenance/Environmental Copyright © John Beckford 1993-2014


SupplyVulnerability

Asset Vulnerability



Onward Delivery

Asset Criticality



Supply

Process

Environmental



Environmental Criticality = Asset Criticality X Environmental VulnerabilityAsset Vulnerability = Max of Supply/Maintenance/Environmental

Asset Exposure

=Asset Criticality

XAsset

Vulnerability






– represent the results graphically– Identify affected populations– develop a vulnerability and/or criticality index for:

• the individual assets• the networks

And, therefore:– identify locations where either

• mitigating action will deliver most (population) benefit• investment will best increase resilience



• Identify apparent dependencies and connectivity from available data

• Make assumptions about the level of connectivity (if necessary)

• Build the network relationship models• Test that the results make sense• Model the effects of failure• Develop a criticality/vulnerability index based on the now

known connectivity• Deploy results on a GIS tool



Whither the Future


• Adopting a new paradigm

Whither the Future


• Adopting a new paradigm• Einstein on madness?

Whither the Future



– “Doing the same thing and expecting a different result”

Whither the Future



– “Doing the same thing and expecting a different result”• If we want to change the way things work (and it rather looks

like we need to) then we need to adopt different methods

Whither the Future


• Exploiting capacity– Kondratieff Wave

• Last 50 years we have been benefitting from historic investment• As we get nearer capacity we have to find different ways of managing

– The old ways are no longer relevant or, perhaps, functional– There may be limits to sustainable growth– Increasing risk of systemic chaos in disruption with wider impacts

• Ageing Infrastructure– Congestion, Beyond Design Capacity, Questionable Resilience– Potential for Systemic or Cascade Failure

• Rooted in increasing and often unrecognised interdependence– Especially on ICT

Whither the Future


• Do the (systemically) right thing right not the wrong thing better!

Whither the Future


• Do the (systemically) right thing right not the wrong thing better!– Understand the infrastructure system– Integrate management– ‘Dissolve the problem’

• Address the systemic problem – not the symptom– interconnectedness means that solving one problem may well solve another!

• Why do people commute?» Because we manage where people are rather than what they do» Don’t move people, move information and energy

• Australia ‐ Transport corridors • Hong Kong – MTR – co‐location of Transport, Offices, Homes

– Exploit the transformational potential of ICT

Whither the Future


Future Environment:Market, SocietyTechnology, CustomersUKCP’nn’, IPCC

OfGen

Transport

Waste

GovernmentPolicy

OfWat

OfCom

Planning &Modelling

InterdependencyResilience

‘Golden Share’

PerformanceRegulators:Economic?Resilience?Low Carbon?

Infrastructure UK

Operators

Operators

Operators

Operators

Operators

Market, Technology,Customers





Whither the Future


Future Environment:Market, SocietyTechnology, CustomersUKCP’nn’, IPCC

OfGen

Transport

Waste

GovernmentPolicy

OfWat

OfCom

Planning &Modelling

InterdependencyResilience

‘Golden Share’

PerformanceRegulators:Economic?Resilience?Low Carbon?

Infrastructure UK

Operators

Operators

Operators

Operators

Operators

just in case

just in time






Whither the Future


Actual

Capability

Potential

Productivity

Latency

Effectiveness

Drivingoperationalimprovement

Drivingstrategicimprovement

Actual

Capability

Potential

Productivity

Latency

Effectiveness



Actual

Capability

Potential

Productivity

Latency

Effectiveness



Economic

Resilience

Carbon Impact

Actual

Capability

Potential

Productivity

Latency

Effectiveness

Overall Performance

Limited by the worst performing element

Whither the Future


• Systemic Model of the whole infrastructure• Infrastructure Supply Chain Review• Resilience Assessment for every infrastructure project• Resilience Share Investment

– Private Capital – just in time– Public Capital – just in case

• Skills Investment– Systems Thinking– Information Utilisation

• Invest in Critical ICT and Communications Systems

Whither the Future


Whither the Future

• Since 2009– The CST Report

• “A network of networks”

– “Infrastructure UK”• taking a ‘systemic’ approach

– ICIF, Ibuild, ITRC– TRaCCA– Consideration of new business models

• NIP14– £3bn of efficiency savings identified from systemic interventions THIS

year!– interdependencies at the heart– needs to be systemic

• £200bn of Infrastructure Investment by 2020Copyright © John Beckford 1993-2014

dr. john beckford vis. loughborough

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