dr alan j murphy school of marine science and technology
TRANSCRIPT
Dr Alan J MurphySchool of Marine Science and Technology
Shipping’s GHG challenge• Globalisation = Trade = Shipping
Fleet DWT % global CO2
2007 ~1bn te 3-4%
2014 ~1.5bn te ?
2050 ? 12-18%
Our aims• The relationship between transport logistics and future ship
designs
• Future demand for shipping
• The impacts of technical and policy solutions on future shipping scenarios
• Implementation barriers to low carbon shipping
• Shipping GHG measurement and apportionment
Project scope
• Global with high resolution for UK centric flows
• Commodities (first focus)– Energy products– Major bulks– Containers
• Transporter type– Ship (first focus)
• Containers• Tankers - Crude, Product• Dry Bulkers
– Other modes• Pipe/Rail/Road etc
D
USA
BRA
SAU
EUR
CHN
RUS
Subject Matter Experts
Professor James Corbett (Delaware) Professor Henry Marcus (MIT)
A systems approach• WP1 - Shipping modelling
• WP2 - Technologies for low carbon shipping
• WP3 - Shipping, ports and logistics
• WP4 - Shipping economics
• WP5 - Regulations, policy and incentives
• WP6 - Ship operations
WP1 - The Model
Are these numbers correct?
What would a 20%,40%,60% CO2 reduced container,tanker,bulker look like?
WP2 - Technologies
Integrate
WP3 - Shipping ports and logistics
• Map the current and projected transport network• Model the impacts of network reconfiguration• Assess the environmental impact of port activities
Map freight flows – CO2 Consequences?
Route Decision making – CO2 Consequences?
Port Activity – CO2 Consequences?
Source: MCA
Routes around the UK by vessel type
WP4 - Shipping economics
• Environmental/life cycle shipping costing• Macro/micro shipping analysis• Characteristics of shipping markets
WP5 - Regulation, policy and incentives
Ship owner
Ship owner
H&M Manufacturer
H&M Manufacturer
Classification society
Classification society
Flag stateFlag state
IMOIMOPort state control
Port state control
Ship yardShip yard
Bunker supplier
Bunker supplier
Captain/crewCaptain/crew
Ship financiers
Ship financiers
Management company
Management company
ShareholdersShareholdersShip brokerShip broker
ChartererCharterer
InsurerInsurer
Final consumer
Final consumer
ConsigneeConsignee
• Analyse incentivisation across the stakeholder space• Analyse regulation scenarios
– Aviation vs. shipping– Relative to criteria (e.g. legality, abatement, trade impacts)
WP6 - Human factors & ship operations
• Develop knowledge regarding energy efficient operation• Develop onboard monitoring and decision support systems• Research efficiency optimised maintenance regimes
Concluding remarks
– Society
– Governments
– Industry
How much can we regulate without stifling economic growth?
What is optimum regulatory vehicle?
How can I still be in business in 20 year’s time?
What sort of technologies will be most important?
A transition to a low carbon economy will challenge:
How much can shipping contribute to the 80%?
Will I still be buying cheap electronics from China?
This work is intended to answer:
