dr. adolfo chávez rodríguez achavezr@avantel school of engineering university of chihuahua
DESCRIPTION
Climate Change and Adaptive Management in EU and Beyond Vingted, Denmark March, 2009. Dr. Adolfo Chávez Rodríguez [email protected] School of Engineering University of Chihuahua - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Dr. Adolfo Chávez Rodrí[email protected]
School of EngineeringUniversity of Chihuahua
Chihuahua, Mexico
Consultant to the World Bank for Participative Groundwater ManagementConsultant to the World Bank for Participative Groundwater Management
Climate Change and Adaptive ManagementClimate Change and Adaptive Management
in EU and Beyondin EU and Beyond Vingted, Denmark Vingted, Denmark
March, 2009 March, 2009
MAEXICAN LAW OF NATIONAL WATERSTÍTULO PRIMEROCapítulo Único
ARTICLE 1. La presente Ley es reglamentaria del Artículo 27 de la Constitución Política de los Estados Unidos Mexicanos en materia de aguas nacionales; es de observancia general en todo el territorio nacional, sus disposiciones son de orden público e interés social y tiene por objeto regular la explotación, uso o aprovechamiento de dichas aguas, su distribución y control, así como la preservación de su cantidad y calidad
“to achieve an integrated and sustainable development”.
SURFACE WATERS
REUSEWATERS
GROUNDWATERS
USERS
All the sources - All the uses
Quantity and quality being considered
INTEGRATED MANAGEMENT OF WATER RESOURCES
GW MANAGEMENT AS A PROCESSGW MANAGEMENT AS A PROCESS
UNCERTAINTY C H A O S
YEARS
ANNUAL PUMPING VOLUMES PER USE
STATE OF CHIHUAHUA, MEXICO
Agriculture
R E P D A, CONAGUA
Municipal
G-W OVER-EXPLOITATIONG-W OVER-EXPLOITATION
Degradation of aquatic ecosystems
Adverse economic impacts, such as inutilization of
wells, the need to drill deeper, increments in the
cost of pumping, etc.
In (semi-)arid lands, the chemical quality of GW
usually degrades with the excesive decline of GW
levels.
S T A G E S O F G-W E X P L O I T A T I O N
Prepumping condition Recharge =
Natural Discharge
Pumping physically unsustainablePersistent use of non-renewable reserve
G-W withdrawal begins
Excesive cost of agric. pumping
Aquatic ecosystems degradation
G-W salinity becomes inconvenient
Over - exploitation
JUAREZ
GW – ONLY SOURCE OF MUNICIPAL WATER SUPPLY FOR THIS U.S.A. - MEXICO BORDER REGION
GW – ONLY SOURCE OF MUNICIPAL WATER SUPPLY FOR THIS U.S.A. - MEXICO BORDER REGION
Bolsón del Hueco
THE HUECO BOLSON AQUIFER IS SHARED BY THREE STATES: CHIHUAHUA, TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO
TEXAS
NEW MEXICO
CHIHUAHUA
G-W and SUSTAINABILITYG-W and SUSTAINABILITY
“ In 2005, there were “officially” 102 over-
exploited aquifers in México (Marín, 2004)……..
But depending on the manner in which G-W
budgets are calculated, as many as 150 aquifers
may be over-exploited”
(O. Escolero, former goverment official in oral communication to Marín (2006).
G-W and SUSTAINABILITYG-W and SUSTAINABILITY
“One importantt reason for concern in the
Mexican academic community is that the
published goverment official reports are not
subject to any kind of peer review or
technical auditing ……..
….. Therefore, there is big questioning about
the credibility of these reports ……..
….….This is particularly distressful
regarding the published G-W availability
that can be allocated. “ (Marín, 2006)
G-W and SUSTAINABILITYG-W and SUSTAINABILITY
Recent research in different (semi-)arid lands in the
world (1998 a 2007), including Arizona,
New Mexico and West Texas, shows the aquifer
recharge has been traditionally overestimated.
Same results have been found in the University of
Chihuahua for aquifers in the (semi-) arid lands of
Mexico.
There is evidence that most of the published official
figures of G-W availability are overestimated. .
801. ASCENSIÓN802. ALTA BABICORA803. BAJA BABICORA804. BUENAVENTURA805. CUAUHTEMOC806. CASAS GRANDES807. EL SAUZ - ENCINILLAS808. JANOS809. LAGUNA DE MEXICANOS810. SAMALAYUCA811. LAS PALMAS812. PALOMAS-GUADALUPE VICTORIA813. LAGUNA TRES CASTILLOS814. LAGUNA DE TARABILLAS815. LAGUNA EL DIABLO816. ALDAMA -EL CUERVO817. LAGUNA DE PATOS818. LAGUNA DE SANTA MARÍA819. LAGUNA LA VIEJA820. IGNACIO ZARAGOZA821. FLORES MAGÓN - VILLA AHUMADA822. SANTA CLARA823. CONEJOS - MEDANOS824. LAGUNA DE HORMIGAS825. EL SABINAL826. LOS LAMENTOS827. EL CUARENTA828. LOS MOSCOS829. JOSEFA ORTIZ DE DOMÍNGUEZ830. CHIHUAHUA - SACRAMENTO
831. MEOQUI - DELICIAS832. JIMENEZ - CAMARGO833. VALLE DE JUÁREZ834. PARRAL - VALLE DEL VERANO835. TABALAOPA - ALDAMA836. ALDAMA - SAN DIEGO837. BAJO RÍO CONCHOS838. ALTO RÍO SAN PEDRO839. MANUEL BENAVIDEZ840. VILLALBA841. POTRERO DEL LLANO842. ALAMO CHAPO843. BOCOYNA844. VALLE DE ZARAGOZA845. SAN FELIPE DE JESÚS846. CARICHI - NONOVA847. LOS JUNCOS848. LAGUNA DE PALOMAS849. LLANO DE GIGANTES850. LAS PAMPAS851. RANCHO EL ASTILLERO852. LAGUNA DE JACO853. RANCHO LA GLORIA854. RANCHO EL DENTON855. LAGUNA LOS ALAZANES856. LAGUNA EL REY857. ESCALON858. LA NORTEÑA859. MADERA860. GUERRERO - YEPOMERA861. VALLE DEL PESO
811
812
820
813814
815
816
817818
819
801
802803
804
805
806
807
808
809
810
821
822
823
824
825
826
827
828
829
830841
842
843
844845
846
847
848
849
850
831
832
833
834
835 836
837
838
839
840
851 852
853 854
855
856857
858
859
860
861
109º 108º 107º 106º 105º 104º32º
31º
30º
29º
28º
27º
26º
ACUÍFEROS EN MINADO - SITUACIÓN ACTUAL
ENTRADAS = 3,521 Mm /año3
EXTRACCIÓN = 4,154 Mm /año3
DÉFICIT = 633 Mm /año3
?
? ?
?
?
?
(18 % DE LAS ENTRADAS)
FUENTE DE DATOS:
CONAGUA
R E P D A Y ESTUDIOS TÉCNICOS
801. ASCENSIÓN802. ALTA BABICORA803. BAJA BABICORA804. BUENAVENTURA805. CUAUHTEMOC806. CASAS GRANDES807. EL SAUZ - ENCINILLAS808. JANOS809. LAGUNA DE MEXICANOS810. SAMALAYUCA811. LAS PALMAS812. PALOMAS-GUADALUPE VICTORIA813. LAGUNA TRES CASTILLOS814. LAGUNA DE TARABILLAS815. LAGUNA EL DIABLO816. ALDAMA -EL CUERVO817. LAGUNA DE PATOS818. LAGUNA DE SANTA MARÍA819. LAGUNA LA VIEJA820. IGNACIO ZARAGOZA821. FLORES MAGÓN - VILLA AHUMADA822. SANTA CLARA823. CONEJOS - MEDANOS824. LAGUNA DE HORMIGAS825. EL SABINAL826. LOS LAMENTOS827. EL CUARENTA828. LOS MOSCOS829. JOSEFA ORTIZ DE DOMÍNGUEZ830. CHIHUAHUA - SACRAMENTO
831. MEOQUI - DELICIAS832. JIMENEZ - CAMARGO833. VALLE DE JUÁREZ834. PARRAL - VALLE DEL VERANO835. TABALAOPA - ALDAMA836. ALDAMA - SAN DIEGO837. BAJO RÍO CONCHOS
838. ALTO RÍO SAN PEDRO839. MANUEL BENAVIDEZ840. VILLALBA841. POTRERO DEL LLANO842. ALAMO CHAPO843. BOCOYNA844. VALLE DE ZARAGOZA845. SAN FELIPE DE JESÚS846. CARICHI - NONOVA847. LOS JUNCOS848. LAGUNA DE PALOMAS849. LLANO DE GIGANTES850. LAS PAMPAS851. RANCHO EL ASTILLERO852. LAGUNA DE JACO853. RANCHO LA GLORIA854. RANCHO EL DENTON855. LAGUNA LOS ALAZANES856. LAGUNA EL REY857. ESCALON858. LA NORTEÑA859. MADERA860. GUERRERO - YEPOMERA861. VALLE DEL PESO
811
812
820
813814
815
816
817818
819
801
802803
804
805
806
807
808
809
810
821
822
823
824
825
826
827
828
829
830841
842
843
844845
846
847
848
849
850
831
832
833
834
835 836
837
838
839
840
851 852
853 854
855
856857
858
859
860
861
109º 108º 107º 106º 105º 104º32º
31º
30º
29º
28º
27º
26º
ACUÍFEROS EN MINADO Y VOLÚMENES SOLICITADOS
ENTRADAS = 3,521 Mm /año3
SALIDAS = 5,243 Mm /año3
DÉFICIT = 1,722 Mm /año3
(49 % DE LAS ENTRADAS)
? ?
?
EXTRACCIÓN
FUENTE DE DATOS:
CONAGUA
R E P D A Y ESTUDIOS TÉCNICOS
G-W and SUSTAINABILITYG-W and SUSTAINABILITY
Free pumping allowed in the desert by law !!
and not only for human consumption or small family farms,
but for a highly intensive agricultural activity, which leads very quickly to over-exploitation. Is this reasonable at all ???.
Govern
mt
Society
Science
Gobernance
Interface Interface
Interface
Trialogue ModelTrialogue Model
Adapted from Turton et al., (2005)
THE TRIALOGUE MODEL OF GOVERNANCE
GOVERNANCE is being defined as the process of informed decision-making that enables trade-off’s between competing users of a given resource so as to balance protection and use in such a way as to:
(a) mitigate conflict, (b) enhance security, (c) ensure sustainability, and (d) hold government officials accountable for their actions.
More specifically, what are being called Actor-Clusters, are considered to be extremely important, of which there are three main sets.
An adaptive management approach to water
resources management implies a systematic
approach that builds on trial and error utilizing
feedback loops to allow us to learn from experience
and to adjust our water management practices to
address evolving issues and conditions.
Adaptive management typically focuses on
developing an understanding of the baseline
physical (e.g., climate/hydrological), legal and
socioeconomic aspects of a region or a basin.
ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT OF WATER RESOURCESADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT OF WATER RESOURCES
It also includes (a) quantifying management and scientific
uncertainties and sensitivities, (b) predicting ranges of
potential changes, and (c) developing testable management
options and scenarios.
Finally, it includes planning for and managing those changes to
reduce management risks or to take advantage of potential new
opportunities that may present themselves (i.e., not all climate
change or variability is "bad").
ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT OF WATER RESOURCESADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT OF WATER RESOURCES
MODELING PROTOCOL
Calibration and Reliability in Groundwater ModellingCredibility of Modelling
ModelCARE 2007 Copenhagen, DenmarkSeptember 9-13, 2007
Incorporation of new observation wells, water-level data and boundary-flow observations
ORIGINAL GROUNDWATER-FLOW
MODEL
Incorporation of stresses acting in the audit period (mainly pumping)
Ideally, use of well cuttings, geophysical logs, design and
completion data of the observation wells,
along with topographical and hydrological maps, and visual
interpretation of water-level maps (depth, elevation & evolution)
Usually, only total depth of observation wells is available,
and used
along with topographical and hydrological maps, and visual
interpretation of water-level maps (depth, elevation & evolution)
DETERMINATION OF OBSERVATION WELLS, WATER-LEVEL DATA AND BOUNDARY-FLOWS REPRESENTATIVE OF THE MAIN AQUIFER
PREDICTIVE SIMULATION
ANALYSIS OF RESIDUALS WITH REPRESENTATIVE OBSERVATION WELLS, WATER-LEVEL DATA AND
BOUNDARY-FLOW OBSERVATIONS
CONCEPTUAL AND / OR INPUT DATA ERRORSIDENTIFIED OR SUGGESTED
Groundwater monitoring network for modeling
and management MODEL REDESIGN OR MULTIMODELS
PREDICTIVE SIMULATION
ANALYSIS OF RESIDUALS WITH ALL OBSERVATION WELLS, WATER-LEVEL DATA,
AND BOUNDARY-FLOW OBSERVATIONS
Examination of scattergrams and hydrographs(observed vs. predicted heads and flows), and
spatial distribution of residuals for selected times.
ANALYSIS OF REPRESENTATIVENESS
P R E A U D I T
COOPERATIVE MODELING
Equitable allocation of GW resources is a growing challenge.
While scientists can contribute to a technically defensible basis for water resource planning, this framework must be cast in a broader societal and environmental context.
Given the complexity and often contentious nature of resource allocation, success requires a process for inclusive and transparent sharing of ideas complemented by tools to structure, quantify, and visualize the collective understanding and data, providing an informed basis of dialogue, exploration and decision making.
COOPERATIVE MODELING
Ideally, a process that promotes shared learning leading to cooperative and adaptive planning decisions.
While variously named, mediated modeling, group modeling, cooperative modeling, shared vision planning, or computer mediated collaborative decision making are similar approaches aimed at meeting these objectives.
The Big PictureThe Big Picture Archaic and obsolete legal framework for water
Basis in legal property rightsFailure to provide for conjunctive management of surface water and groundwater
Changing demandsGrowing Municipal and Industrial (M&I) useNo increase in suppliesEnvironmental demands
Transboundary Conflicts Changing climate
Short term droughtsLong-term changes in amount and characteristics of supply
G R A C I A G R A C I A SS
Dr. Adolfo Chávez RodríguezHidrogeologist
THANKS FOR YOUR ATTENTION
THANKS FOR YOUR ATTENTION