dprc drug policy research center how goes the war on drugs? martin y. iguchi, ph.d. rand dprc &...

DPRC

DRUG POLICY RESEARCH CENTER

How Goes the War on Drugs?

Martin Y. Iguchi, Ph.D.

RAND DPRC & UCLA School of Public Health

Picture source: LA Times

What are we trying to accomplish?

•A drug free society?

•User reduction?

•Use reduction?

•Harm reduction?

•Why the focus on “illicit” drugs?

Is the “war” metaphor appropriate?

•What are the implications of “war”?

•Are we winning?

•How can you know?

•What are our benchmarks?

UNODC Andean Coca Surveys 2005

Est. Coca Cultivation

2004 2005

Colombia 158,000 ha 159,600 ha

Peru 80,000 ha 86,000 ha

Bolivia 27,700 ha 25,400 ha

Reported Eradication

2004 2005

Colombia 142,786 ha 170,042 ha

Peru 10,399 ha 12,232 ha

Bolivia 8,437 ha 6,073 ha

Comparison: In 2001 Colombian coffee farms covered 1 million ha

Source: UNODC 2006

Are Interdiction Efforts Successful?

Cocaine production 2004 2005

Colombia 640 mt 640 mt

Peru 190 mt 180 mt

Bolivia 107 mt 90 mt

Cocaine Seizures

Colombia (main cities) 188 mt 177 mt

Peru (producing regions) 7.3 mt 2.2 mt

Bolivia (main cities) 0.5 mt 1.3 mt

Europe 79 mt na

United States 196 mt na

Comparison: >170,000 mt of coffee shipped to US every year from Colombia

Source: UNODC 2006

Cocaine Production Factoids

•Cocaine may be grown from cutting or seed - with harvest after 6-18 months

– 30+ year plant life

•3-4 harvests per year

•UNODC and Colombian government survey:– 6,300kg/ha/yr of fresh coca leaf– Translates to 2,700kg/ha/yr sun dried leaf– 7.7 kg/ha/yr pure cocaine hydrochloride

Source: UNODC 2006

Cocaine Profit in 1990

•Farmer cost was $700/ha to grow cocaine

•Profit to farmer was $1,600/ha

•Sold on streets in US for $150,000

Source: Caulkins et al. 2005

Enforcement Affects Consumption Through Price

Enforcement

Risks &

Costs

RetailPrice

Consumption

EradicationGrower Risks &

Costs

LeafPrice

Retail Price

InterdictionInterdictionSmugglerRisks &

Costs

SmugglerRisks &

CostsRetail PriceRetail Price

Import-Export

Price

Prohibition Does Increase the Price of Cocaine

Farm-gate value ($US) 2004 2005Colombia $843 M

Peru $304 M $307 M

Bolivia $240 M $180 M

Avg Wholesale Price ($US)Colombia (main cities) $1,710/kg $1,800

Peru (producing regions) $890/kg $890/kg

Bolivia (main cities) $1,800 $1,800

Europe $45,830/kg $47,690/kg

United States $22,070/kg n/a

Source: UNODC 2006

Cocaine Prices Declining1981-2000

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999

RetailWholesale

Price per pure gram in 1998 dollars

Source: ABT Associates Inc.

wholesale

retail

Prohibition Does Increase the Price of Cocaine

Farm-gate value ($US) 2004 2005Colombia $843 M

Peru $304 M $307 M

Bolivia $240 M $180 M

Avg Wholesale Price ($US)Colombia (main cities) $1,710/kg $1,800

Peru (producing regions) $890/kg $890/kg

Bolivia (main cities) $1,800 $1,800

Europe $45,830/kg $47,690/kg

United States $22,070/kg n/a

Source: UNODC 2006

A Brief Overview of the RAND “Controlling Cocaine” Model

Cost-effectiveness at reducing cocaine consumption

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

Treating heavy users

Prevention (high estimate)

Federal enforcement

Longer sentences, federal defendants

Domestic enforcement, typical dealers

Prevention (middle estimate)

Interdiction

Longer sentences, typical dealers

Source country control

Prevention (low estimate)

Treatment is Most Cost Effective Option by Several Measures

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Use (kgs) Spending ($100K) Crime

Problem Reduction per Million Program Dollars

Treatment

ConventionalEnforcementMandatory MinSentences

Different Evaluation Time Horizons Favor Different Drug Control Strategies

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

Years

Treatment

ConventionalEnforcementMandatoryMinimum

SOURCE: From Caulkins et al., Mandatory Minimum Drug Sentences, p. 36.

Alcohol and nicotine policies need to be part of a comprehensive illicit drug

control strategy

•There is significant evidence that alcohol and marijuana are economic complements, not substitutes.

•There is additional evidence suggesting that alcohol and cocaine are economic complements.

•Cigarettes and marijuana also appear to be economic complements.

DPRC

DRUG POLICY RESEARCH CENTER

Examining the Impact of Criminalizing Drug Use on the Health of Minority

Families

Martin Y. Iguchi, Ph.D.

RAND and UCLA School of Public Health

In 2005, 35 million Americans (age 12 or older) committed an illegal act.

In 2005, 35 million Americans (age 12 or older) committed an illegal act.

They used an illicit drug

Prison Admissions for a Drug OffensePer 100,000 Adults (Iguchi & Fain, 2006)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Picture Source: NY Times

The Increase in Drug Offender Prison Entries Has Disproportionately Affected Blacks

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

Black

Hispanic

White

The Disproportion is Even More Dramatic When Viewed on a Per Capita Basis (per 100,000 Adults)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Black

Hispanic

White

Comparison of Male Drug Offender Prison Entrants 1983 and 1999

•In 1983, roughly 1 in 1,500 adult black males and 1 in 6,900 adult white males entered prison on a drug offense

•In 1999, roughly 1 in 130 adult black males and 1 in 1,800 adult white males entered prison on a drug offense

Drug Offender Prison Admissions also Increased Disproportionately Among Black Women

(rate per 100,000 adult women)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Black

Hispanic

White

Since 1989, Over 50 % of Prison Admissions for Hispanic Women Have Involved Drug Offenses

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Black

Hispanic

White

The Prevalence of Drug Use Is Similar Among Blacks, Whites, and Hispanics

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Percentage of population reporting drug use in the prior month (2005)

Source: National Survey on Drug Use and Health

Black White Hispanic

Per Capita Violent Crime Arrests Did Not Change Much During the Same Time Period

for any Racial/Ethnic Group

Many Cumulative Reasons for Disproportions Have Been Proposed

• Sentencing disparity - In 1988 Congress decided that 5g crack would be treated the same as 500g powder - resulting in a 5 year mandatory minimum prison sentence.

– Even though 500g powder = 448g crack

• Enhancement laws (school zones, weapon possession)

• Socioeconomic factors (focus on low income populations)

• Uneven enforcement (profiling)

• Behavioral/environmental vulnerability (public purchase)

• Differences in consumption and offending

• Three Strike Laws exacerbate above effects

We Decided to Shift Focus from Numbers Incarcerated to Implications for Quality of Life,

Access to Care , and Health Disparities

– During the past decade, many laws were enacted in the name of public safety that specifically targeted drug offenders

– A number of unintended consequences of these laws extends to family members and ultimately to their communities

– We made a preliminary synthesis of the effects of these laws, particularly as they apply to women and children in minority communities

How Might a Felony Drug Conviction Affect Quality of Life and Access to Care for the

Individual, Family, and Community?

– Children and families

– Health care benefits

– Housing availability

– Access to higher education

– Immigration status

– Employment opportunities

– Political representation

– Drug use and recidivism

Source: Iguchi, London, Forge, Hickman, Fain, Riehman (2002). Elements of well-being affected by criminalizing the drug User. Public Health Reports, 117(1): S146-S150.

Children and Families of Drug Offenders Are Likely to Be Affected

– In 1999, an estimated 1.5 million children under the age of 18 had one or both parents in state or federal prison

– Black and Hispanic children are much more likely than white children to have a parent in prison

Children and Families of Drug Offenders Are Likely to Be Affected

– Other relevant laws include those mandating rapid adoption, parental rights termination, or those that specify imprisonment as ground for divorce

– Families are dismantled, greater economic and child care burdens fall to the mother, or if not to the mother, to relatives and the community at large

Both Felons and their Families Lose Health and Welfare Benefits

– Drug felons are permanently barred from receiving food stamps or Temporary Assistance to Needy Families (TANF) although 32 states have modified the ban - using state funds for drug felons

– In some states (e.g., Missouri), a criminal conviction can be grounds for losing insurance coverage

Access to Public Housing is Seriously Restricted by New Laws

– The “One Strike and You’re Out” legislation of 1996 revised screening and eviction procedures for public housing

– The law allows housing authorities to consider substance abuse when making access and eviction decisions. In 2003, 5% denied housing and 6% evicted for drug-related reasons (GAO, 2005)

– As written, the law encourages consideration of rehabilitation and drug treatment options

– In practice, public safety is often the overriding consideration - leaving drug offenders and their families with few housing options

Higher Education is Less Accessible for Those With Drug Convictions

– A conviction for drug possession revokes eligibility for federal education assistance for at least one year

– A conviction for drug sales revokes eligibility for at least two years

– Eligibility can be reinstated if student completes a rehabilitation program and passes two unannounced drug tests

– In 2003-04 - 41,000 applicants denied loans (GAO, 2005)

Immigrants Convicted of Drug Felonies Can Be Deported Without Judicial Review

– U.S. prisons currently house more than 84,000 foreign nationals

– The 1996 Illegal Immigration Reform and Immigrant Responsibility Act precluded judicial review of INS decisions

– Since 1996, the INS has greatly increased the deportation of “aggravated felons” removing 61,093 in 2000

– Drug felonies make up 41 percent of those cases

Employment Options are Seriously Limited by Drug Conviction

– Earnings potential of non- white-collar workers appears to be harmed for at least one year after convicted felons re-enter communities

– Incarceration often occurs during career-building years

– Felons are barred from employment in many areas, including the military and government jobs, and are barred from receiving many licenses and permits

– Lack of employment can also mean a lack of health care benefits

A Felony Conviction Means the Loss of Political Power for Minority Communities

– Approximately 3.9 million felons are ineligible to vote after leaving prison

– More than a third of the disenfranchised are black

– Approximately 13% of all adult black males in this country are ineligible to vote

– This loss of political power often translates into a loss of access to services

Incarceration Does Not Prevent Further Drug Abuse

– It is unclear how much crime is averted, and drug use deterred by aggressive policing policies

– Incarceration does remove a portion of drug users and their related criminal activity from communities for an average of 2 years

– Incarceration has little or no positive impact on illicit drug use after convicted individuals return to communities

– Returns to prison related to drug use occur at high rates

We are Treating Drug Abuse as Moral Failure Requiring Eternal Punishment

– While these policies are meant to benefit society, in practice many have a harmful impact on offenders and their families long after they serve their time in prison

– These effects result in additional burdens for family members and the community, with minority communities disproportionately impacted

– With hundreds of thousands returning to society from prison, these issues require close attention

A Better Approach Is to Treat Drug Use as a Public Health Problem

– Increase the availability of drug treatment programs to users before they are arrested

– Increase the availability of drug courts and related judicial mechanisms (Proposition 36) emphasizing treatment before incarceration - and rehabilitation over punishment

– Facilitate the re-entry of drug offenders into our communities

Acknowledgements:

•Research Supported by the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse

•www.burnsinstitute.org (James Bell Executive Director)

•RAND Colleagues: Jon Caulkins, Peter Reuter, Jim Chiesa, Andrew Morral, Jennifer London, Terry Fain, Rajeev Ramchand, Kara Riehman, Rosalie Pacula, Nell Forge, Dan McCaffrey, Susan Paddock and many others

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