downloaded from af 202. downloaded from objectives intro decision making risk assessment...
TRANSCRIPT
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Objectives
Intro
Decision MakingRisk AssessmentHazardous AttitudesHazard DetectionDECIDE model
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ADM
Aeronautical Decision MakingA systematic approach to risk
assessment and stress management
Helps us understand how personal attitudes influence decision making
Helps us see how we can modify those attutudes
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ADM
Progress is being made to improve aircraft equipment and systems along with pilot services.
However the human factor of flight remains the same
80% of all aviation accidents are attributed to the human factor
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Judgment
The FAA believes that good judgment is something you can be taught not just a by-product of experience
Do you think it is possible to be taught good judgment?
If so, what can prevent someone from being taught good judgment?
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Decision Making
How to improve your decision makingIdentify personal attitudes hazardous to safe
flyingLearn behavior modification techniquesLearning how to recognize and cope with
stressDeveloping risk assessment skillsHaving the ability to evaluate your ADM
skills (self honesty)
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Risk Assessment
The two defining elements of ADM are hazard and risk
Hazard being the condition, event or circumstance encountered
Risk is the assessment of the seriousness of that hazard
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Risk Assessment
Pilots can come to different assessments of the same hazardPilot experiencePilot trainingPilot attitude
It is not a guarantee that a, say, less experienced pilot will always under-asses a hazard. The pilot could think it more serious than it really is
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Hazardous Attitudes
One of the first risks is pilot attitude
The FAA groups 5 hazardous attitudes
Hazardous attitudes are not as easily dealt with by just reading a book. WHY?
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Hazardous Attitudes
Some of these attitudes may be temporary due to a ‘bad day’
However much of the danger behind hazardous attitudes is because they can be rooted in our mentality, personality, and cultural influence
This makes identification very personal
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Hazardous Attitude
Anti – AuthorityDon’t like anyone telling you what to doThinks the rules are silly or unnecessaryYou always question authoritySubtly can be present simply by the easy
lack of respect of persons in authority
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Hazardous Attitudes
RiskIgnore rules meant for safety or reasons that
you may not know aboutWon’t take seriously the lessons or wisdom
taught by those in authority which could help you in the end
In reality, if it doesn’t kill you or get you in trouble, it will probably get you fired
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Hazardous Attitude
ImpulsivityImpulsive shopping may leave you with
credit card debt, but impulsive flying could leave you DEAD!
Reacting to situations without thinking about them
Assessment of the seriousness of the risk is usually wrong
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Hazardous Attitudes
RiskIf you over-react to a non-serious risk you
could make a non-serious situation more serious
Improper assessment could lead you to the wrong action for the situation
You basically are ignoring what you have been taught. All wisdom goes out the window
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Hazardous Attitudes
InvulnerabilityFalse sense of security
All that ‘stuff’ happens to other people
Could be an over estimation of your ability○ “It happens to them because they’re idiots”
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Hazardous Attitudes
RiskToo relaxed on procedures and
precautionary actions (i.e. clearing turns, position reporting)
Not fully prepared when a situation actually does happen to you
A better chance you’ll take more foolish risks
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Hazardous Attitudes
MachoThe pilot diseaseProve yourself to others or just to get
attention (or impress a girl so you can have a valentines date)
Think you need to be better than everyone
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Hazardous Attitudes
RiskYou do stupid stuff!!The desire to be better, to be liked, to
impress, to be recognized, to be applauded by other people can be stronger than your reason if left unchecked
It can backfire on you quick
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Hazardous Attitudes
ResignationGive up because “what’s the use? I can’t
make a difference.”It’s all based on luck, karma, the alignment
of the stars anywayLeave the response to the situation up to
othersYou don’t question others when you should
just because you are a ‘nice guy.’
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Hazardous Attitudes
RiskA fixable situation never gets fixed
Other people do things they shouldn’t because you were to ‘nice’ to confront them
You are really an ineffective pilot because the majority of training is not so you can stay level, but deal with hazardous situation.○ After all a computer can stay level so why do
we need you?
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Operational Pitfalls
Honestly, though most issues are not able to be summed up by 5 attitudes and many issues are a combination of them
Operational pitfalls are classic behavioral traps which pilots often fall into (Can you see which hazardous attitudes come into play?)
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Operational Pitfalls
Peer PressureAn emotional response to what others think
about you
Mind SetInability to recognize or cope with changes
that are different from anticipated or planned
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Operational Pitfalls
Get-There-ItisFixation on the goal or destination impairs
good judgment and disregards any alternative course of action (like not going!)
Duck-Under Syndrome“Sneak a peek” by ducking under minimums
on an approach because you assume there is a ‘fudge’ factor for obstacle clearance
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Operational Pitfalls
Scud RunningPushing pilot and aircraft limits trying to
maintain visual contact with terrain while trying to avoid it
Continuing VFR into IFRJust stupid (especially if not Instrument
rated)
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Operational Pitfalls
Getting behind the aircraftAllowing the situation to control you instead
of controlling the situationConstantly surprised. moments of blank
thought since you don’t know what to do
Lost of situation awarenessLike getting behind the aircraft but
specifically related to keeping track of where you are
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Operational Pitfalls
Operating without adequate fuel reserveSimply ignoring the rules so you don’t have
to stop for refuel and can stretch it that “extra mile.”
Flying outside the envelopeFlying a little overweight or a little out of CG
range. After all there is probably ‘fudge factor’ built in.
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Operational Pitfalls
Neglect flight planning/preflightIs the plane really safe?Do you really know where you’re goingAre you really prepared for what could
happen?Is the weather really going to cooperate?
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PAVE Checklist
P for PilotAm I ready for this trip?Mentally – Hazardous Attitudes, stressPhysically – IMSAFE checklistExperientially – Do I meet proper currency
requirements
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PAVE Checklist
A for AircraftAm I familiar with this aircraftIs it equipped properly and functioningDo I have the proper runway lengthIt is weighted properlyCan it make it high enough to clear all
obstacles or terrain?Is the plane properly and sufficiently fueled
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PAVE Checklist
V for enVironmentCurrent weather here, enroute, and at
destinationWill a slight change in un-forecasted
weather be hazardousAm I comfortable with the weather situations
I could encounterCan I handle the terrain I am overDo I know all I can about the airportDo I know all airspace I may encounter
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PAVE Checklist
E for External PressuresJob pressures (don’t disappoint the
passenger)Desire to prove yourself or impressPersonal goalPride to meet a challenge that may be
above your experience level
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ADM
While making decisions is often an automatic process, knowing whether you have the proper thought process is important
Without knowing your thought process you can easily be led into impulsivity
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ADM
The DECIDE model with an engine failure during cruise flight
Detect…that something has changedHey my engine has failed on me, that is
different than it was beforeMost people get this part
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ADM
Estimate…the severity of the situation and a need to reactI think my engine being failed is pretty
serious and something should be done about it
Again this is usually obvious to people
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ADM
Choose…a desirable outcomeWhat would be the best outcome to this
engine failure?Most students show, by their actions, that
the best outcome is to land in a fieldWouldn’t the best outcome be that the
engine starts again???
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ADM
Identify…necessary actions to reach the desired outcome previously discussedIf you want the engine to start, do the engine
restart procedure, not look for a fieldIn all honestly this procedure in a 172 takes
7 seconds (assuming you know the engine restart procedure)
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ADM
Do…the actions you just identified as necessarySo do the engine restart procedure
Evaluate…The effects of the actionsHey the engine started so we’re ok, maybe I
should go home thoughHey the engine is still dead, go back to
Choose
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ADM
While this may seem silly, it is to prove a point. That point being…THINK!!
What outcome is best and if it is in your power to do something about it, then DO IT!
If that outcome does not happen then what is second best.