Download - Www dc 2013
Context mining and integration into
Predictive Web Analytics
Julia Kiseleva (Eindhoven University of Technology),Supervised by:Mykola Pechenizkiy (Eindhoven University of Technology),
Web Predictive Analytics
What is predictive web analytics?Web predictive analytics: • aims to predict individual and aggregated characteristics indicating
visitor behavior for purposes of understanding and optimizing web usage.
• Application:o Search engines o Recommender System
• Examples:o Computational Advertisement
• Predictive web analytics tasks:o Online shop’s recommendations;o Users’ next action prediction;o Users’ intention predicting;o Personalized search result page.
Model L
Users web log
Historicaldata
labels
label?
1. training
3. application
X
y
X'
y’=L (X')
Formulations:① Classification② Regression ③ Clustering④ Scoring
labels
Testingdata
2. testing
Predictive Web Analytics
User next action prediction
Historical data. Actions ={Search, Refine Search, Click on Banner, Product view, Payment}
Search Refine Search ?Click on
BannerProduct
View
What is next?
Session 1 Search Refine Search
Click on Banner
Product View Payment
Session 3 Product View
Payment
Session 3 Search Refine Search
Refine Search
Click on Banner
Session 4 Search Refine Search
Click on Banner
Product View Payment
Session 5 Product View
Click on Banner
Search
Running Example: users’ trail predictions
Search Refine Search ?Click on
Banner Product
View
What is next?
Running Example: users’ trail predictions
Search
Refine Search
Payment
Click on Banner
Product View
1.0 2/3
1/3
1/21/4
Drop out
3/4
1/4
1
1/4
User next action prediction
ContextWhat is context? – any additional information that
Why we need context? o enhances the understanding of the instance of interest, o helps us to classify this instance or makes predictions regarding its
behavior.
• Two major context types:o Explicit – stored explicitly or given by domain expert (location, OS,
Browser) o Implicit – hidden in the data. We need techniques to discover context.
Taxonomy for explicit Context
Human Factors
Physical EnvironmentFactors
User CharacteristicsSocial EnvironmentIntent
Conditions
Infrastructure
Location
*Weather*Light*Acceleration*Audio*…
*Temperature*Humidity*…
Environment/Context
Model L
Users web log
X'
y'
Historicaldata
labels
X
y
label?
labels
Testdata
Strategies:① ?② ? ③ ?④ ?
Context-Awareness in Web Predictive
Analytics
Research QuestionsQuestion 1: How to define the context in predictive webanalytics?Question 2: How to connect context with the predictionprocess in predictive web analytics?
Context Definitio
n
Context Discover
y
Context Modelin
g
Context Mining:How define
context? Context Integratio
n
Search Refine Search ?Click on
Banner Product
View
What is next?
Running Example: users’ trail predictions
Search
Refine Search
Payment
Click on Banner
Product View
1.0 2/3
1/3
1/21/4
Drop out
3/4
1/4
1
1/4
User next action prediction
Local models
Contextual Partitioning
• Approaches to create local models:o Horizontal partitions
Users from Europe
Users from South America
Session 1 Search
Refine Search
Click on Banner
Product View
Payment
Session 3 Product View
Payment
Session 3 Search
Refine Search
Refine Search
Click on Banner
Session 4 Search
Refine Search
Click on Banner
Product View
Payment
Session 5 Product View
Click on Banner
Search
Contextual Partitioning
• Approaches to create local models:o Horizontal partitiono Vertical partition :
• Two types of behavior:o Ready to by – (Product View, Payment)o Just browsing – (Search, Refine Search, Click on
Banner) Session 1 Searc
hRefine Search
Click on Banner
Product View
Payment
Session 3 Product View
Payment
Session 3 Search
Refine Search
Refine Search
Click on Banner
Session 4 Search
Refine Search
Click on Banner
Product View
Payment
Session 5 Product View
Click on Banner
Search
Contextual Partitioning
• Approaches to create local models:o Horizontal partitiono Vertical partition :
• Two types of behavior:o Ready to by – (Product View, Payment)o Just browsing – (Search, Refine Search, Click on
Banner) Session 1 Searc
hRefine Search
Click on Banner
Product View
Payment
Session 3 Product View
Payment
Session 3 Search
Refine Search
Refine Search
Click on Banner
Session 4 Search
Refine Search
Click on Banner
Product View
Payment
Session 5 Product View
Click on Banner
Search
Context Definition
• Intuition about Context: change of user intentso User is looking for the producto User is ready to buy
Search Refine Search
Payment
Click on Banner
Product View
Intent: looking for product
Intent: ready to buy
Context Discovery
• Context definition: change of user intentso User is looking for the producto User is ready to buy
• Context discovery – apply hierarchical clustering in order to maximize prediction accuracy
Search Refine Search
Payment
Click Product
View
Intent: looking for product
Intent: ready to buy
Context-Awareness Integration
Predictive model(s)
Predictions
Training data
Context-awareness
Example: Seasonality
(winter, summer)
Example:Features set expansion
Example:Prediction adjustment
Context Integration Example
Context:User intent
DATA
Contextual Categories
Individual Learners
Mapping G
Mapping H Context
Discovery
Ready to buy
Just browsing
Context Integration Example
………………
Contextual features
DATA Environment
Contextual Categories
Individual Learners
Mapping G
Mapping H
Context Discovery
Thank you!• Context identification and
integration it into prediction models• Accurately predicting users’ desired
actions and understanding behavioral patterns of users in various web-applications
• Personalization and adaptation to diverse customer need and preferences
• Accounting for the practical needs within the considered application areas.
Summary• The main goal is to develop a generic framework
for context-aware systems for Web Predictive Analytics
• In order to archive this goal we need to answer the following questions:o How to define the context in predictive webanalytics?o How to connect context with the predictionprocess in predictive web analytics?
Questions?
Research Methodology
Implementing CAPA framework
Developing CAPA framework
Online validation (A/B testing)
Internal validation
Context-aware systems
Context definition
Context Integration Method
Application
Context-aware system
Recommendationsystems
Computational Advertisement
Information Retrieval
Normalization
Expansion
Classifier Selection
Classification Adjustment
Weighting
Domain Expert
Clustering
Contextual feature identification
History of context definition and discovery
Context YearLocation 1992Taxonomy of explicit context 1999Predictive features vs. contextual
2002
Hidden context: (clustering, mixture models)
2004
Contextual bandits 2007History of previous interaction 2008Independence of predicted class 2011Two level prediction model 2012Focus on Context Discovery 2012 -
Tim
elin
e
Research Goal • Our research aims to develop a generic
framework and corresponding techniques for introducing the contextual information in Predictive Web Analytics and accounting for the practical needs within the considered application areas.