Wichita 2007 Review2008 Forecast
Janet Harrah, directorCenter for Economic Development and
Business Research, WSUOctober 2007
Wichita MSA EmploymentWichita MSA Employmentby Industry Sector, 2006by Industry Sector, 2006
Service Sectors 42%
Production Sectors 27%
Trade, Transportation &
Utilities 17%
Government 14%
Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Wichita MSA EarningsWichita MSA Earningsby Industry Sector, 2006by Industry Sector, 2006
Service Sectors 34%
Trade, Transportation
and Utilities 14%
Government 12%
Production Sectors 40%
Data Source: Kansas Department of Labor
Total Total Employment GrowthEmployment GrowthU.S. & Wichita MSAU.S. & Wichita MSA
(Year-over-Year Quarterly Percentage Change)(Year-over-Year Quarterly Percentage Change)
-5%-4%-3%-2%-1%0%1%2%3%4%5%
2000
Q1
2000
Q3
2001
Q1
2001
Q3
2002
Q1
2002
Q3
2003
Q1
2003
Q3
2004
Q1
2004
Q3
2005
Q1
2005
Q3
2006
Q1
2006
Q3
2007
Q1
2007
Q3
2008
Q1
2008
Q3
United States
Wichita MSA
Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Estimate/Forecast CEDBR, Wichita State University
ProductionProduction Employment Employment GrowthGrowth
U.S. & Wichita MSAU.S. & Wichita MSA(Year-over-Year Quarterly Percentage Change)(Year-over-Year Quarterly Percentage Change)
-12%-10%-8%-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%
2000
Q1
2000
Q3
2001
Q1
2001
Q3
2002
Q1
2002
Q3
2003
Q1
2003
Q3
2004
Q1
2004
Q3
2005
Q1
2005
Q3
2006
Q1
2006
Q3
2007
Q1
2007
Q3
2008
Q1
2008
Q3
United States
Wichita MSA
Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Estimate/Forecast CEDBR, Wichita State University
TradeTrade Employment Growth Employment GrowthU.S. & Wichita MSAU.S. & Wichita MSA
(Year-over-Year Quarterly Percentage Change)(Year-over-Year Quarterly Percentage Change)
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
2000
Q1
2000
Q3
2001
Q1
2001
Q3
2002
Q1
2002
Q3
2003
Q1
2003
Q3
2004
Q1
2004
Q3
2005
Q1
2005
Q3
2006
Q1
2006
Q3
2007
Q1
2007
Q3
2008
Q1
2008
Q3
United States
Wichita MSA
Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Estimate/Forecast CEDBR, Wichita State University
ServiceService Employment Employment GrowthGrowth
U.S. & Wichita MSAU.S. & Wichita MSA(Year-over-Year Quarterly Percentage Change)(Year-over-Year Quarterly Percentage Change)
-4%-3%-2%-1%0%1%2%3%4%5%6%
2000
Q1
2000
Q3
2001
Q1
2001
Q3
2002
Q1
2002
Q3
2003
Q1
2003
Q3
2004
Q1
2004
Q3
2005
Q1
2005
Q3
2006
Q1
2006
Q3
2007
Q1
2007
Q3
2008
Q1
2008
Q3
United States
Wichita MSA
Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Estimate/Forecast CEDBR, Wichita State University
GovernmentGovernment Employment Employment GrowthGrowth
U.S. & Wichita MSAU.S. & Wichita MSA(Year-over-Year Quarterly Percentage Change)(Year-over-Year Quarterly Percentage Change)
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
2000
Q1
2000
Q3
2001
Q1
2001
Q3
2002
Q1
2002
Q3
2003
Q1
2003
Q3
2004
Q1
2004
Q3
2005
Q1
2005
Q3
2006
Q1
2006
Q3
2007
Q1
2007
Q3
2008
Q1
2008
Q3
United States
Wichita MSA
Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Estimate/Forecast CEDBR, Wichita State University
WSU Consumer WSU Consumer Expectations IndexExpectations Index
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2002
Q1
2002
Q3
2003
Q1
2003
Q3
2004
Q1
2004
Q3
2005
Q1
2005
Q3
2006
Q1
2006
Q3
2007
Q1
Data Source: CEDBR, Wichita State University
WSU Current Conditions WSU Current Conditions IndexIndex
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
2002
Q1
2002
Q3
2003
Q1
2003
Q3
2004
Q1
2004
Q3
2005
Q1
2005
Q3
2006
Q1
2006
Q3
2007
Q1
Data Source: CEDBR, Wichita State University
WSU Leading Economic WSU Leading Economic Indicators IndexIndicators Index
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2002
Q1
2002
Q3
2003
Q1
2003
Q3
2004
Q1
2004
Q3
2005
Q1
2005
Q3
2006
Q1
2006
Q3
2007
Q1
Data Source: CEDBR, Wichita State University
Total All JobsTotal All JobsWage & Salary EmploymentWage & Salary Employment
230,000240,000
250,000260,000
270,000280,000
290,000300,000
310,000320,000
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Actual Estimate Forecast
Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Estimate/Forecast CEDBR, Wichita State University
Production SectorProduction SectorWage & Salary EmploymentWage & Salary Employment
50,00055,000
60,00065,000
70,00075,000
80,00085,000
90,00095,000
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Actual Estimate Forecast
Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Estimate/Forecast CEDBR, Wichita State University
Natural Resources, Mining & Natural Resources, Mining & ConstructionConstruction
Wage & Salary EmploymentWage & Salary Employment
10,00011,000
12,00013,000
14,00015,000
16,00017,000
18,00019,000
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Actual Estimate Forecast
Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Estimate/Forecast CEDBR, Wichita State University
ManufacturingManufacturingWage & Salary EmploymentWage & Salary Employment
40,000
45,000
50,000
55,000
60,000
65,000
70,000
75,000
80,00019
95
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Actual Estimate Forecast
Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Estimate/Forecast CEDBR, Wichita State University
Durable Goods ManufacturingDurable Goods ManufacturingWage & Salary EmploymentWage & Salary Employment
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
55,000
60,000
65,000
70,00019
95
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Actual Estimate Forecast
Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Estimate/Forecast CEDBR, Wichita State University
Non-Durable Goods Non-Durable Goods ManufacturingManufacturing
Wage & Salary EmploymentWage & Salary Employment
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
11,000
12,00019
95
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Actual Estimate Forecast
Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Estimate/Forecast CEDBR, Wichita State University
Trade, Transportation & Trade, Transportation & UtilitiesUtilities
Wage & Salary EmploymentWage & Salary Employment
27,500
32,500
37,500
42,500
47,500
52,500
57,50019
95
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Actual Estimate Forecast
Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Estimate/Forecast CEDBR, Wichita State University
Wholesale TradeWholesale TradeWage & Salary EmploymentWage & Salary Employment
9,500
10,000
10,500
11,000
11,500
12,000
12,50019
95
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Actual Estimate Forecast
Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Estimate/Forecast CEDBR, Wichita State University
Retail TradeRetail TradeWage & Salary EmploymentWage & Salary Employment
28,000
28,500
29,000
29,500
30,000
30,500
31,000
31,500
32,00019
95
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Actual Estimate Forecast
Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Estimate/Forecast CEDBR, Wichita State University
Taxable Retail SalesTaxable Retail Sales(billions $)(billions $)
$0.00$1.00$2.00$3.00$4.00$5.00$6.00$7.00$8.00$9.00
$10.0019
95
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Actual Estimate Forecast
Data Source: KS Department of Revenue; Estimate/Forecast CEDBR, Wichita State University
Inflation AdjustedInflation AdjustedTaxable Retail Sales (billions Taxable Retail Sales (billions
$)$)
$3.50$3.60$3.70$3.80$3.90$4.00$4.10$4.20$4.30$4.40$4.50
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Actual Estimate Forecast
Data Source: KS Department of Revenue; Estimate/Forecast CEDBR, Wichita State University
Transportation & UtilitiesTransportation & UtilitiesWage & Salary EmploymentWage & Salary Employment
6,6006,8007,0007,2007,4007,6007,8008,0008,2008,4008,600
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Actual Estimate Forecast
Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Estimate/Forecast CEDBR, Wichita State University
Service SectorsService SectorsWage & Salary EmploymentWage & Salary Employment
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
110,000
120,000
130,000
140,00019
95
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Actual Estimate Forecast
Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Estimate/Forecast CEDBR, Wichita State University
Information ServicesInformation ServicesWage & Salary EmploymentWage & Salary Employment
4,000
4,500
5,000
5,500
6,000
6,500
7,000
7,500
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Actual Estimate Forecast
Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Estimate/Forecast CEDBR, Wichita State University
Financial ServicesFinancial ServicesWage & Salary EmploymentWage & Salary Employment
10,000
10,500
11,000
11,500
12,000
12,500
13,000
13,50019
95
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Actual Estimate Forecast
Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Estimate/Forecast CEDBR, Wichita State University
Professional & Business Professional & Business ServicesServices
Wage & Salary EmploymentWage & Salary Employment
16,500
18,500
20,500
22,500
24,500
26,500
28,500
30,500
32,50019
95
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Actual Estimate Forecast
Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Estimate/Forecast CEDBR, Wichita State University
Education & Health Care Education & Health Care ServicesServices
Wage & Salary EmploymentWage & Salary Employment
25,00027,00029,00031,00033,00035,00037,00039,00041,00043,00045,000
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Actual Estimate Forecast
Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Estimate/Forecast CEDBR, Wichita State University
Leisure & Hospitality ServicesLeisure & Hospitality ServicesWage & Salary EmploymentWage & Salary Employment
22,000
23,000
24,000
25,000
26,000
27,000
28,000
29,00019
95
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Actual Estimate Forecast
Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Estimate/Forecast CEDBR, Wichita State University
Other ServicesOther ServicesWage & Salary EmploymentWage & Salary Employment
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,00019
95
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Actual Estimate Forecast
Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Estimate/Forecast CEDBR, Wichita State University
Government ServicesGovernment ServicesWage & Salary EmploymentWage & Salary Employment
30,000
32,000
34,000
36,000
38,000
40,000
42,00019
95
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Actual Estimate Forecast
Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Estimate/Forecast CEDBR, Wichita State University