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Why Method Matters in Political Science
Prof. Kenneth BenoitPO1600 9 March 2010
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Academic disciplines
• Divide scholarly activities, also administration and teaching
• Organized further into subfields– Political theory– International Relations– “American politics”– Comparative politics
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Disciplinary characteristics
• Scope: defines boundaries of subject matter
• Methods: defines how inquiry is conducted
• Activities consist of:– Research and publication– Attending conferences– Training more political scientists– Membership in professional associations– Teaching– Contributing to public knowledge
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What Political Science is NOT:
• Economics or Sociology (because of scope)
• History (because of theory)
• Journalism, story-telling, or editorial opinion (because of method)
• Philosophy (because of method) – although theory has always been part of political science as a discipline
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Basic Goals of Science• Explanation, prediction, control• Generalization: the formulation of propositions that
cover a class of phenomena. Generalizations have– Scope is the range and variety of phenomena a
generalization relates to one another– Probability is the nearness to certainty in their
relationship.– The problem in social sciences is that the degree of
probability of a statement tends to vary inversely with its scope.
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Basic Procedure of Science
1. Identify a problem
2. Observation
3. Description
4. Inductive generalization
5. Deduction from the generalization
6. Further tests
7. Acceptance, revision, or rejection of a hypothesis
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Why Methodology Matters
• The content of science is its method• Science makes author irrelevant• Science is logical• Science is cumulative• Ability to replicate is critical• Problems of social science subject matter
make methods all the more important
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Methodological challenges for Political Science
• Rules of interpretation vary• Experimental data usually unavailable• Subject matter resists generalization
– Behavior too complex– Individuals vary (esp. culturally)– Behavior changes
• Difficult to separate observer values from research
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Disciplinary Challenges for Political Science
• Need common concepts and replicable research to advance the study of politics as a science
• Science knows where it is going
• Science identifies common key problems
• Science knows roughly how to solve these problems
• Science is cumulative
• Science involves collaboration
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Example:Measuring Democracy
• Problem: How to empirically measure democracy?• Political rights: Each country and territory is awarded from 0
to 4 raw points for each of 10 questions grouped into three subcategories in a political rights checklist
• Civil liberties: 15 questions are grouped into four subcategories in a civil liberties checklist.
• Combined Score: The total raw points in each checklist correspond to two final numerical ratings of 1 to 7. These two ratings are then averaged to determine a status category of “Free,” “Partly Free,” or “Not Free.”
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Freedom House Democracy
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Example:Predicting Wars from Democracy
Freedom House 1973
Expected Wars
2 1.55
4 1.36
7 1.12
12 0.81
14 0.71
Mean Standard Error (0.23)
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Example:Measuring Left-Right Policy
• Analyzing political texts (manifestos)• Surveys of experts• Public opinion surveys• Statistical techniques based on (legislative)
voting patterns
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Measuring Left-Right in Ireland (2002)
PD
FF
FG
LB
SF
GR
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20Left-Right Dimension (1=Left, 20=Right)
95% confidence intervals
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Measuring attitudes toward European Integration in Ireland (2007)
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Measuring Left-Right in the European Parliament
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Assessing the “fit” of British parties in their European Party Groups
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Measuring relative importance of policy dimensions in Latin America
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Left-Right Policy Analysis from Expert Surveys
-4 -2 0 2 4 6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6
CYDKMT
FIATDEGRESIE
NOLUUKPTSENLBEIT
CH
CYDKMT
FIATDEGRESIE
NOLUUKPTSENLBEIT
CH
Factor 1 Factor 2
mean of coefficientGraphs by Variable
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AT-FPO
AT-Gru
AT-OVP
AT-SPO
AU-AD
AU-ALP
AU-LPAAU-NP
BE-Eco
BE-PS
BE-SPSp
BE-VB
CA-BQ CA-LPC
CA-NDP
CA-PC
CH-CVP
CH-EVP
CH-FDP
CH-GPS
CH-SD
CH-SPS
CH-SVP
DE-CDU/ C
DE-FDP
DE-GRÜ
DE-PDS
DE-SPD DK-CD
DK-Enh
DK-FrP
DK-KF
DK-KrF
DK-RVDK-SD
DK-SF
DK-V
ES-CiU
ES-IU
ES-PNV
ES-PP
ES-PSOE
FI-KDFI-KESK
FI-KOK
FI-SDP
FI-SFP
FI-VAS FI-VIHRGR-KKE GR-ND
GR-PASOK
GR-SYN
IE-FF
IE-FG
IE-GR
IE-LB
IE-PD
IL-Hada
IL-Lab
IL-Lik
IL-Merz
IL-NRP
IL-Raam
IL-Shas
IL-YhT
IS-X-B
IS-X-DIT-AN
IT-FI
IT-Green
IT-LNIT-PDCI
IT-RC
LU-ADR
LU-CSV
LU-DP
LU-G LU-LSAP
NL-CDA
NL-D66
NL-GL NL-PvdA
NL-VVD
NO-DNA
NO-FrP
NO-H
NO-KrF
NO-SV
NO-Sp
NO-V
NZ-Allc
NZ-NP
NZ-NZFP
NZ-NZLP
PT-CDS/ PP
PT-PS
PT-PSD
SE-CSE-FP
SE-KD
SE-M
SE-MP
SE-SAP
SE-V
TR-ANAP
TR-CHP
TR-DSP
TR-DYP
UK-Con
UK-LD
UK-LabUS-Dem
US-Rep
-40
-20
020
4060
CM
P rite
-left
from
last
ele
ctio
n
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20B-L 2003 Expert Survey Left-Right Mean
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Example:Campaign Spending Effects
• Question: How much does campaign spending affect electoral success?
• Answer comes from data analysis of Irish elections
• Relationship is modeled and characterized statistically
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Campaign Spending Effects
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Campaign Spending Effects
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Example: Explaining How Electoral Rules Change
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Example: Explaining How Electoral Rules Change