Adaptive Integrated Framework (AIF): a new methodology for managing impacts of multiple
stressors in coastal ecosystems(aka the Saginaw Bay Multiple Stressors Project)
5 year, $3.76 million grantNOAA Center for Sponsored Coastal Ocean Research
NOAA Great Lakes Environmental Research LaboratoryMichigan State University
University of MichiganUniversity of Akron
Limno-Tech, Inc.Western Michigan University
Michigan Department of Natural ResourcesMichigan Department of Environmental Quality
Also featuringWayne State
PurdueCase Western
DukeEastern MI Michigan Department of Natural Resources
and the Environment
And now, a word from your sponsor►Beth Turner – your
friendly neighborhood program manager
►Taking over from Larry Pugh, enjoying a well-earned retirement
►Also managing Ecological Forecasting program in Lake Erie
NOAA
National Ocean Service
National Centers for
Coastal Ocean
Science
Center for Sponsored
Coastal Ocean
Research
CSCOR Reporting Requirements
►Greater emphasis on reporting both research outputs and management outcomes
►CSCOR compiles annual report that draws on all projects and their outputs and outcomes
►Forms at http://www.cop.noaa.gov/opportunities/grants/reporting_requirements.html
►Explanation at http://www.cop.noaa.gov/opportunities/grants/outcomes.html
Research Outputs Outputs are “typical” results of research
►New fundamental or applied knowledge ►Scientific publications ►Patents ►New methods and technology ►New or advanced tools such as models,
biomarkers, etc. ►Workshops ►Presentations ►Outreach products (e.g. website or newsletter
articles)
Research Outcomes► Outcomes are utilization or adoption of
outputs Management application or adoption of:
►New fundamental or applied knowledge ►New or improved skills ► Information from publications, workshops, seminars,
outreach products ►New or improved methods or technology ►New or advanced tools
Societal condition improved due to management action resulting from output:
► Improved water quality ►Lower frequency of harmful algal blooms ►Reduced hypoxic zone area ► Improved sustainability of fisheries
Help Me Help You(please!)
► Talk to me – I’m very nosy! Upcoming meetings, workshops, presentations Publications (pub numbers?) Interactions with managers or stakeholders
► Visit DC NOAA seminar series
► [email protected]► 603-862-4680
THANK YOU!
5 Year ProjectFirst funding ~ July 2007
First PI meeting December 2007Organization, Modeling, Light field year – 2008
First “real” field year – 2009Second field year – 2010
Last funding ~ spring 2011$$$
This is where we are, approximately…
Fishery Notes from First PI Meeting
…we also recognized that while our project involves a number of researchers and spans five years, there is still some limit to aspects which we can explore. Thus, our work will continue to focus on (but not be limited to) the two species constituting the historically most important fisheries in Saginaw Bay, walleye and yellow perch.
…it is not only important for management agencies to establish predictive links between particular actions and fish production. Rather, it is also beneficial for management agencies to be equipped with a qualitative understanding of processes affecting fish productions. As such, we plan to structure our field and modeling efforts to facilitate both prediction and understanding.
Water Quality Notes from First PI Meeting
We want to look at stressors for which we have predictive capabilities and management options, P load is the most obvious stressor to fit this description.
The hypothesis is that total chlorophyll a is the same for Sag Bay, but there has been a shift from pelagic to benthic due to dreissenids (making more P available, diverting it to nearshore).
… we are concerned about HABs both because they produce toxins (human health issue) and are unpalatable to grazers.
… phytoplankton composition is also important because certain phytoplankton groups will be better food for zooplankton and thus have an impact on fish production.
We may be able to predict muck on shoreline well if we have data on light …, temperature …, wind and currents …, and water level
We are still struggling with how to quantify benthic algae as well as muck – no one in our group has done it. Divers, towed benthic camera, a “flying fish” …, flyovers if water clarity is sufficient.
Where Have We Been?
• Dreissenid dominated system• P shunted, routed to benthic algae
– Cladophora? Spirogyra?• Phytoplankton shift to cyanobacteria• Alewife↓ Walleye, Yellow Perch↑, Growth↓• GLWQA P targets met? Relevant?
Saginaw River Annual TP Loads
Partial-pooling across years using a Bayesian hierarchical modelPrepared by Yoonkyung Cha – Duke University
Inner Saginaw Bay Annual TP Budget (tonnes/yr)
pre-control (1968-1978, orange), post- control (1979-1990, blue), post-invasion (1991-2008, green)
Dead Zone?
Saginaw Bay 'dead zone' may explain muck problemsThursday, July 23, 2009, 8:20 AM
Bay City Times
But there's a spot that's just a few feet deeper, which fishermen know well.They call it the Black Hole.
Is it the dead zone, or is the oxygen-deprived water somewhere else, caused by an eddy in the bay's currents?
Mlive.com
Site of interest: Saginaw Bay
• Eutrophic
• Shallow: mean depth 5m
• Horizontally well-mixed
by strong winds (Skubinna et al., 1995)
• Vertically Isothermal (Vanderploeg et al., 2008)Outer
Inner
Nathan Hawley 2009
Dis
solv
ed
Oxy
ge
n (
mg
/L)
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
29JUL10 09AUG10 21AUG10 01SEP10
Te
mp
era
ture
(C)
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
Temperature
DissolvedOxygen
Saginaw Bay Recon Buoy
Bottom Conditions 11.6 m depth
Goals (where do we go from here?)1) Comprehensive update from project participants2) Data inventory and comprehensive data base3) Priorities for work next year4) Stakeholder workshop5) Engage with managers and develop list of modeling
scenarios that will support management decisions.6) Discuss the AIF that was a goal of this project in
terms of successes, failures, lessons learned7) Communication into the future