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What is a New Frontier in Exploration?
Jean-Marc Lulin President & CEO
Azimut Exploration Inc
May 2014
AZIMUT
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Exploration & Frontier
going from “something known” toward the “unknown”
in this process, a frontier is the limit between the known and unknown
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Types of frontiers
Evolution through time
Strategies to move frontiers
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Frontier Types
Related to:
Physical space: geography (2 D) and depth (3 D)
Technologies
Concepts
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Types de frontières
Des frontières liées à notre façon de se représenter le réel: - nature des paramètres - nombres de paramètres - systèmes de représentation
Tranchées: cartes géologiques
Graduelles: cartes magnétiques
Floues: carte d’altérations
Invisibles !
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Frontier Types
Physical space
Depth (third dimension) • Main exploration limitation: vast majority of orebodies found at, or
near, the surface: dramatic drop in efficiency with increasing depth
NW Quebec 0-10m: 70% of mines 0-100m : 90% of mines
• 2 classes: surface discoveries with step by step extensions vs deep
discoveries without surface expression • Limiting factors: access costs, lack of enough critical data to
efficiently discriminate deep target footprint from noise
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Frontier Types
Additionnal complexities - Lakes - Unconsolidated, transported cover (glacial overburden, sand) - In situ cover (saprolite, laterite) - Barren rock cover (unconformity, thrust)
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Frontier Types
Number of deposits
Depth
Dramatic drop in efficiency with increasing depths
Surface - 500 m - 1000 m
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Frontier Types
Physical space
Geography (2 D) • Boundary between:
- mature regions (dynamics of incremental discoveries); and - virgin regions (awaiting for founding discoveries leading to new mining
districts) • Limiting factors: costs of physical access; lack of data; “invisible”
boundaries: mode of representation that does not recognize different levels of knowledge
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Gold Prospects
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Frontier Types
Technologies
Limiting factors:
- Ability to detect a discriminatory signal from the noise (geophysical, geochemical, remote sensing)
- Analytical sensitivity, data accuracy
- Data processing
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Types de frontières
Technologie: Agricola
Agricola, 1556
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Frontier Types
Concepts Intellectual construct seeking representation of reality
- Ore deposit models leading to exploration scenarios Limiting factors:
- Scale of work - Data processing - Representation systems
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Frontier Types
Human nature
- Way of thinking and representing one’s own reality: cognitive barriers linked to individual and collective (cultural) boundaries
- Paradoxical role of knowledge - Need knowledge to perform exploration!! but - Knowledge generates its own limits: theories lead to
– or prevent – discoveries - Beliefs: comprehension strongly related to personal
experience
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Azimut-Aurizon exploration team, Rex South project, Nunavik, 2010
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Frontier Types
Upon searching the four corners of the world, it appears there are very few real gold mines in northern regions. There are also very few real gold mines in temperate climates. The richest gold mines are in the hottest countries, particularly those without long-established civilised societies, such as Africa and America.
In: Œuvres complètes, Comte de Buffon, 1749 For a number of reasons, of which the most serious is the extremely scattered distribution of precious metal deposits, most enterprises have now disappeared and the number of companies producing gold has been reduced to only two in all of French West Africa.
In: Afrique occidentale française, Exposition Coloniale Internationale de Paris, R. Delavignette, 1931
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Frontier Types
Statements partly founded on knowledge “In the James Bay region, there are only showings, no deposits”. Before the Eleonore discovery “Labrador has been extensively prospected; if we go there, we will waste our time”. Before the Voisey’s Bay discovery “Diamond exploration has been going on for 40 years in Canada; there is nothing; this story is certainly purely promotional”. At the time of the Ekati discovery
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Frontier Types
“Des préjugés qui ont retardés les progrès de la géologie” “Review of the causes which have retarded the progress of Geology” In: Principles of Geology (Principes de géologie) Charles Lyell, 1830
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Changing Frontiers
As a function of time
Gradual - Resulting from an evolution - Incremental accumulation of knowledge: regional surveys in poorly
known territories - Increase in data density (in situ boundary change) - Data integration
Fast & sharp - Resulting from a breakthrough; boom effect - New territories: MAJOR discovery - New concepts and technologies: PROOF of efficiency
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1951 1996
2007
Gradual change
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Exploration of new territories
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
20 000
12 000
10 000
8 000
6 000
4 000
2 000
0
18 000
16 000
14 000
Virginia
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……………… Virginia’s Press
Release on August 11, 2004
Azimut
………..
Cum
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ims
Fast & sharp change
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2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Virginia
Azimut
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pani
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50
40
30
20
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Fast & sharp change
Exploration of new territories
Virginia’s Press Release on
August 11, 2004
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Changing Frontiers
Efficiency
Depth Surface - 500 m - 1000 m
Moving a technological / conceptual barrier through time
100%
50% Breakthrough Incremental
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Strategies
Two observations:
(a) Increasing maturity of mining regions – dramatic decrease in the number of surface discoveries
(b) Decreasing efficiency of technologies and concepts over time, applied to a given territory
At some point, all deposits that can be discovered using a specific technology or concept are discovered
Decreasing efficiency of specific innovations and concepts through time: reveals a decrease in the discovery potential
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Strategies
• Exploring new frontiers: no choice! • Preferred approaches:
- Systematic valorization of GIS geoscientific data at the regional scale: predictive mineral potential assessments per commodity (and/or mineral deposit type) at the subprovince scale
- Search for new mineral exploration models applicable to under-explored regions: potential for open-pit deposits (low production cost per tonne), polymetallic deposits (high value per tonne)
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Conclusions
• By nature, exploration linked to the concept of frontier, and to uncertainty and risk
• “External” frontiers: related to depth, technological capabilities, data accumulation,…
• “Personal” boundaries: knowledge builds its own boundaries
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Conclusions
Finding the right path…
Ideas (and knowledge) Simplexity rather than complexity Mastering large databases New territories (>>deep exploration ) Importing models, including “unconventional”
orebodies
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Thank you !