Download - What Happened to the Commodity Bull Market
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What Happened to the Commodity Bull Market?
Jim Letourneau, P.Geol.Big Picture Guywww.JimLetourneau.com
California Resource Investment ConferenceFebruary 11, 2012
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Rogers Commodity Index
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Great News!
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Outline
●Where are we in the cycle?●Mining cycle●Hype cycle●Prediction
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2004...
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TIMING?
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2004...
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Rogers Commodity Index
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Commodity Bull Market
●Started in 1998/1999●17 Year Cycle on Average●Ending in 2016???
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Rogers Agriculture
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Rogers Agriculture
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Rogers Energy
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Rogers Energy
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Oil
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Natural Gas
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Rogers Metals
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Rogers Metals
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Copper
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Mine Cycle
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RISK vs Project Value
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History of Hype Curves
Developed by Gartner Research in 1995 and refined continuosly since.
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Hype Cycles provide a graphic representation of the maturity and adoption of technologies and applications, and how they are potentially relevant to solving real business problems and exploiting new opportunities.
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5 Key Points
●Technology Trigger●Peak of Inflated Expectations●Trough of Disillusionment●Slope of Enlightenment●Plateau of Productivity
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Uranium Spot Price
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UEX.TO
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UEX
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WEE.V
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RVX.TO
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2 Parts
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Remember!
Pigs feeding at the trough of disillusionment will not be slaughtered
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NASDAQ
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GOLD
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1966
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2012
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Commodity Bull Market
●Started in 1998/1999●17 Year Cycle on Average●Ending in 2016???
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Commodity Bull Market
●Started in 1998/1999●17 Year Cycle on Average●Ending in 2016???
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www.JimLetourneau.com
Jim Letourneau, P.Geol.Big Picture Guy