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WFO Expectations of WoF:Benefits and ChallengesDavid L. Andra, Jr.Meteorologist In ChargeWFO Norman, Oklahoma
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WoF Workshop Workshop 2013
Overview•The WFOs•The evolving mission of the WFOs•Potential benefits
▫Analyses▫Forecasts
•Challenges•Conclusions
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WoF Workshop Workshop 2013
“My perspective…does not necessarily reflect views of
colleagues or employer”
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WoF Workshop Workshop 2013
The WFOs
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WoF Workshop Workshop 2013
The WFOs•“Are in the community”•Services directed toward local needs•Various staffing levels•Various levels of expertise•Very diverse
▫Urban vs. rural, coastal vs. inland, etc.▫“Progressive” versus “Traditional”▫Variations in management philosophy
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WoF Workshop Workshop 2013
The evolving mission•Schedule driven•ASCII text only•Basic weather forecasts, warnings•Manually intensive
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WoF Workshop Workshop 2013
The evolving mission•1990s – early 2000s•Data sets integrated into workstations•More data•Services diversifying
▫Internet arrives•Discussions of “Decision Support Services-DSS”
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WoF Workshop Workshop 2013
April 19, 1995
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WoF Workshop Workshop 2013
The evolving mission•Today•Services more
diversified•Much more data•Internet primary direct conduit to users•DSS services rapidly
growing•Need for better
guidance at all scales
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WoF Workshop Workshop 2013
Emerging themes•Shrinking scales in space and time•Must be adaptable to diverse users•Must be agile•Must manage our data•Forecaster over the loop•Spectrum of services
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WoF Workshop Workshop 2013
WoF Potential Benefits•Analyses
▫Help manage vast data sets▫Provide common starting
point▫A bridge from warn on
detection
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WoF Workshop Workshop 2013
WoF Potential Benefits•Analyses and Forecasts
▫Offer possibility to provide calibrated hazard services
▫Gridded multi-variable fields allow tailoring to diverse needs, thresholds of users
▫Expand potential lead time for customers that need it
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WoF Workshop Workshop 2013
WoF Potential Benefits•Forecasts
▫More hazards forecast▫More specific locations▫More specific times for onset and ending▫Means to express confidence▫Could provide scientific foundation for
services
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WoF Workshop Workshop 2013
WoF Potential Benefits•WoF in general
▫Can help support NWS DSS vision▫Can provide a basis for future WFO
warning operations▫Therefore help define a meaningful role
for the next generation of forecasters
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WoF Workshop Workshop 2013
Challenges•Practical barriers
▫“First, do no harm”▫Changing the culture▫Future NWS conops unknown▫Fiscal realities of early 21st century
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WoF Workshop Workshop 2013
Challenges•Capturing customer needs•Meeting customer needs•We tend to buy systems
▫Less consideration of “soft” aspects of change
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WoF Workshop Workshop 2013
Challenges•Training
▫Should be thorough and rigorous Meso, storm scale NWP, communications
skills▫Must include all forecasters▫The first to go in an austere fiscal climate
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WoF Workshop Workshop 2013
Challenges•We don’t understand breadth and depth of
our users’ needs▫Basic social science work remains▫Most users don’t understand even today’s
service capability
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WoF Workshop Workshop 2013
Conclusions•We envision:
▫An evolution of capability and services▫The means to get our arms around data
volume▫More specific information in space and
time▫More frequent updates to message▫Likely gridded and probabilistic in nature▫Capable of supporting diverse delivery
methods▫Easily tailored for customers and private
sector
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WoF Workshop Workshop 2013
Conclusions•We envision:
▫Capability to forecast more hazards▫An opportunity to bring increased
reliability and uniformity to services▫An opportunity for meteorologists to evolve
into a role consistent with changes in technology and NWP
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WoF Workshop Workshop 2013
Questions ???