A Second Bite as Good as the FirstMay 21, 2008
Pershing Square Capital Management, L.P.
Disclaimer
Pershing Square Capital Management, L.P.'s ("Pershing") contained in this presentation are based on publicly available information. Pershing recognizes that there may be confidential information in the possession of the companies discussed in the presentation (the “Companies”) that could lead the Companies to disagree with Pershing’s conclusions.
The analyses provided may include certain statements, estimates and projections prepared with respect to, among other things, the historical and anticipated operating performance of the Companies. Such statements, estimates, and projections reflect various assumptions by Pershing concerning anticipated results that are inherently subject to significant economic, competitive, and other uncertainties and contingencies and have been included solely for illustrative purposes. No representations, express or implied, are made as to the accuracy or completeness of such statements, estimates or projections or with respect to any other materials herein. Actual results may vary materially from the estimates and projected results contained herein.
Pershing manages funds that are in the business of trading - buying and selling - public securities. It is possible that there will be developments in the future that cause Pershing to change its position regarding the Companies and possibly increase, reduce, dispose of, or change the form of its investment in the Companies.
This presentation should not be considered a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any investment. In addition, this presentation is not a solicitation of proxies. Pershing and its affiliates retain the right to vote on any matters relating to each or any company, including without limitation, for or against any proposed transaction.
McDonald’s: Let’s Go Back in Time…
Just a few years ago, investor sentiment regarding McDonald’s was negative
Wall Street analysts were generally bearish on McDonald’s stock citing:
Weak same-store sales
Losing share to competitors
Poor consumer environment
Concerns regarding management’s ability to turn around the Company
Restaurant companies were trading at low multiples
Circa: 2002 – 2003 (1)
Avg stock price: ~$22
EV / Fwd EBITDA: ~8.6x
2
(1) Time period referenced is 2002 through the first half of 2003.
But McDonald’s Was Not a Restaurant Company…
EBITDA Adjusted for Market Rent and Franchise Fees
EBITDA As Reported
McDonald’s company-operated restaurants (“McOpCo”) appeared to contribute ~50% of total EBITDA. However, once adjusted for market rent and franchise fees, McOpCo actually constituted ~20% of total EBITDA, with Brand McDonald’s contributing ~80% of total EBITDA.
________________________________________________
Note: Based on 2005A Reported financials. McOpCo contribution includes Other Brands. The analysis assumes that approximately 79% of the total G&A is allocated to Brand McDonald’s business and 21% is allocated to McOpCo. Analysis excludes non-recurring expenses and other net operating expenses.
.
55%48%
52%
McOpCo
Brand McDonald's
3
78%
22% McOpCo
Brand McDonald's
What Happened at McDonald’s
McDonald’s 2002-2003 (1)
Problems:
Weak new products
Ineffective marketing
Poorly performing owned stores
Issues with capital allocation
Weak systemwide same-store sales
Market perception:
“McDonald’s is a poor performing restaurant company in need of a turnaround”
What it Did:
Introduced strong new products
Improved marketing: “I’m Lovin’ it”
Slowed US unit growth, refranchised 30% of McOpCo stores and improved margins
Improved disclosure between Brand McDonald’s and McOpCo
Increased share repurchases and raised the dividend 3.75x
Market perception:
“McDonald’s is a global brand business with strong momentum and significant cash flows”
McDonald’s Today
4(1) Time period referenced is 2002 through the first half of 2003.
McDonald’s Stock Performance (1)
$61
Since 2004, McDonald’s stock price has increased from approximately $23 to $61 because of its initiatives to (1) improve systemwide same-store sales, (2) improve profitability at its Company-operated stores, (3) enhance the financial transparency of its Brand business and (4) increase share repurchases and dividends (1)
From 1/1/2004 – Current
5________________________________________________
(1) Note: Dividend adjusted stock price performance..
$20
$25
$30
$35
$40
$45
$50
$55
$60
$65
Jan-04 Nov-04 Sep-05 Aug-06 Jun-07 May-08
6
McDonald’s Reminds Us Of Another Situation…
Wendy’s TodayMcDonald’s 2002-2003System Problems:
Weak new products / innovation
Poorly performing owned stores
Ineffective marketing
Weak same-store sales
Lack of leadership
System Strengths:
Strong value proposition
Strong US QSR brand
Great locations
Fresh, not frozen, food / fast service
Stock price: $28EV / Fwd EBITDA: 8.9x (1)
System Problems:
Weak new products / innovation
Poorly performing owned stores
Ineffective marketing
Weak same-store sales
Leadership turnover
System Strengths:
Strong value proposition
Premier global QSR brand
Great locations
Avg. Stock price: $22Avg. EV / Fwd EBITDA: ~8.6x
________________________________________________
(1) Assumes Wendy’s standalone “unfixed” 2008E EBITDA..
Wendy’s International
8
Wendy’s International
Third largest quick-service hamburger chain in the US
Approximately 6,645 restaurants
Approximately 80% of systemwiderestaurants are franchised
Estimated $9bn in systemwide sales
Leading US restaurant brand
Estimated $313mm of EBITDA in FY’08E
Net Debt / ’08E EBITDA of 1.1x
Pershing Square Capital Management recently purchased 15% of Wendy’s
Recent stock price: $28
EV: $2.8bn Equity Value: $2.45bn Net Debt: $0.3bn
Ticker: WENNote: All references to market capitalization and enterprise value in this presentation are based on a $28 share price
$21
$24
$27
$30
$33
$36
$39
$42
Oct-06 Feb-07 Jun-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08
Situation Analysis
$28
In June of 2007, Wendy’s announced that it was pursuing a sale of the Company. Since then, amidst the fallout in the credit markets and concerns about the failure of the strategic review process, the stock traded down from $38 to a low of nearly $22. In April, Wendy’s announced an all-stock transaction with Triarc Companies (“Triarc”), owner of Arby’s
April 26, 2007: Wendy’s forms Special Committee to explore “strategic alternatives”
June 18, 2007: Wendy’s announces that it
is pursuing a sale of the company Dec 2007 – March 2008:
Committee decision regarding a sale of the company is still unclear
April 24, 2008: Wendy’s signs definitive merger agreement with
Triarc in an all-stock deal
November 2006: Wendy’s repurchases 22.4 million shares for
$35.75 in a tender offer
Pershing tenders its shares
9
8.9x
10.7x 10.6x10.0x
9.3x
0.0x
2.0x
4.0x
6.0x
8.0x
10.0x
12.0x
WEN YUM MCD BKC SONC
Relative Valuation
Standalone “Unfixed”
EV / 2008E EBITDA Multiples
________________________________________________
Note: Source for comparable restaurant companies multiples is Capital IQ. As of 5/15/08..
10
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
110%
120%
130%
140%
Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Feb-08 May-08
Wendy’s Relative Stock Price Performance
(16.2%)
Wendy’s
38.1%
Wendy’s stock price is down 16% since January 1, 2007 while comparable Quick Service Restaurants are up 38%
________________________________________________(1) Market-Cap weighted index consisting of McDonald’s, Yum!, Burger King and Sonic.
From 1/1/2007 – Current
11
QSR Peers (1)
Valuing Wendy’s Standalone
13
What is Wendy’s?
Owns over $1bn of real estate assets (approximately 40% of Wendy’s current Enterprise Value)
Approximately 6,645 restaurants where Wendy’s receives ~4% of unit sales
Franchise Restaurant OperationsReal Estate
Brand Wendy’s Company Operated
Over 1,400 company operated restaurants
93%
7%
59%41%
Wendy’s: A Brand Royalty and Real Estate Company
2008E Total EBITDA Adjusted for Market Rent and Franchise Fees
2008E Total EBITDA As Reported
Even more so than McDonald’s, Wendy’s is fundamentally a Franchise and Real Estate business (“Brand Wendy’s”). Wendy’s company- operated restaurants (“OpCo”), once adjusted for market rent and franchise fees, are generating virtually no profits
________________________________________________
Note: The analysis assumes that approximately 75% of total Wendy’s G&A is allocated to Brand Wendy’s business and 25% is allocated to OpCo. The analysis assumes that rent is charged to OpCo at a 7.25% cap rate. The analysis excludes non-recurring expenses.
. 14
OpCo
Brand Wendy’s
Brand Wendy’sBrand Wendy’s (Franchise and Real Estate)
OpCo
’08E EBITDA: $313mm ’08E EBITDA: $313mm
Brand Wendy’s: An Attractive Business
Franchise Real Estate
Brand Wendy’s
Collects ~4% royalty on Wendy’s system sales
Collects rent checks for approximately $1bn of owned real estate
~ 60% estimated EBITDA Margins (1)
Low maintenance capital requirements
No commodity cost pressures
Highly leverageable
High earnings stability / recurring revenue base
High ROIC
Valuable real estate
Geographically diverse franchisee base________________________________________________
(1) For the Franchise business. Assumes Wendy’s OpCo pays a market rent and franchise fee.
.15
Brand Wendy’s is a combination of a Franchise business and a Real Estate company.
The Franchise business is a stable, high-margin business that can grow with minimal capital required.
Highly stable, royalty-like businesses of this nature typically trade in the range of 10x – 12x EBITDA, depending on growth
16
Valuing Wendy’s Franchise Business
Based on the P&L assumptions below and a valuation multiple of 10.5x EBITDA, Wendy’s Franchise business alone is worth over $2.3bn
$ in millionsWendy's Franchise 2008E P&L and ValuationSystemwide Restaurants 6,645Estimated average unit sales $1.3Total System Sales $8,805
Approximate Franchise Fee 4%
Franchise Revenues $362Plus: Franchise Rent 18Less: Operating Costs (23)Less: SGA allocation 75% (151)Plus: Tim Hortons RE JV share 9Equals: Franchise EBITDA $215Margin 59.4%EBITDA Multiple 10.5xFranchise TEV $2,256
City State Price (000) Sf Ft Price / Sf Ft Cap Rate Year BuiltSt. Augustine FL $1,481 2,690 $551 6.75% 1988
Charlotte NC $1,492 2,700 $553 6.80% NAKilleen TX $1,504 2,833 $531 7.25% NA
Wace TX $1,284 2,833 $453 7.25% NAWaco TX $1,310 2,833 $462 7.25% NA
Temple TX $917 2,431 $377 7.25% NAPart Charlotte FL $1,645 2,473 $665 6.50% 1988
Saint Augustine FL $1,481 2,690 $551 6.75% 1988Milwaukee WI $1,943 2,594 $749 6.90% 1984Milwaukee WI $1,557 2,881 $540 7.60% 1985
Port Saint Lucie FL $1,530 2,965 $516 7.20% 1997El Paso TX $945 2,669 $354 6.40% NA
Keego Harbor MI $750 2,697 $278 NA 1980Farmington Hills MI $750 2,722 $276 NA 1979Stone Mountain GA $1,324 2,782 $476 8.50% 1975
Average $1,317 2,722 $484 7.1%Median $1,403 2,711 $496 7.2%
17
Wendy’s Real Estate: Comparable Data
A recent sampling of real estate prices around the country shows that the median asking price of Wendy’s restaurant real estate (land and building) is nearly $1.4mm per unit
Current “for sale” prices of Wendy’s real estate (land and building)
________________________________________________
Source: Loopnet..
18
Valuing Wendy’s Owned Real Estate
Based on the assumptions below, Wendy’s OpCo real estate is worth approximately $1bn. Given Wendy’s existing capital loss position, we don’t believe Wendy’s would need to pay taxes in a real estate sale
~40% of Wendy’s
TEV
$ in millionsOpCo Stores Owned Real Estate ValueFee Simple Units (Owned land & building) 632Unit Value $1.2mmValue of Fee Simple Units $758
Owned Buildings (units) 572Unit Value $0.5mmValue of Building-only units $286
Total Value $1,044Estimated Book Basis $850Estimated loss in Baja Fresh $244Total After Tax Value $1,044Implied Rents 7.25% cap rate $76
Wendy's OpCo 2008E P&L "As is" "Fixed"OpCo Sales (1) $2,175 $2,175Reported EBITDA after G&A allocation(2) $185 $185Reported EBITDA margins (after G&A) 8.5% 8.5%
Less: Franchise Fee (87) (87) Less: Incremental rent expense (76) (76) Plus: Operational Savings 0 $86Equals: Adjusted EBITDA $23 $109Adjusted EBITDA margin 1.0% 5.0%
19
Wendy’s OpCo: Almost No Profitability
Based on the assumptions below, Wendy’s OpCo is operating at a 1% EBITDA margin, adjusted for market rents and franchise fees. Franchised Wendy’s restaurants are believed to be generating 600 bps of higher margin. If Wendy’s company-operated restaurants could increase profitability by 400bps, EBITDA would increase by approximately $86mm
400 bps
$ in millions
_______________________________________________
(1) Includes sales of sandwich buns and kids meal toys to franchisees.(2) Assumes ~$50mm, or roughly 25% of Wendy’s Consolidated 2008E G&A of $200mm is allocated to Wendy’s OpCo..
"Unfixed" "Fixed" Valuation Valuation 08 EBITDA 08 EBITDA Multiple "Unfixed" "Fixed"
Franchise Business (1) $215 $215 10.5x $2,256 $2,256Owned Real Estate (2) 76 76 1,044 1,044Brand Wendy's $291 93% $291 $3,300 $3,300OpCo 23 7% 109 7.0x 158 761Equals: Total Value $313 100% $399 $3,459 $4,061
Net Debt (3) ($335) ($335)Equity Value $3,124 $3,727
Equity Value Per Share $35 $42Premium to Current 25% 50%
20
Wendy’s: Summing it Up
After appropriately valuing its high quality franchise and real estate cash flows, even “unfixed” Wendy’s is worth $35 today. If the Company improves its company-operated store margins, the business is worth $42
$ in millions except per share data
_______________________________________________
(1) Franchise business segment includes approximately $18mm of rent income associated with real estate leased to Franchisees. All G&A associated with managing real estate is allocated to the Franchise business for illustrative purposes.
(2) Owned real estate segment assumes a 7.25% cap rate and is based on assumptions detailed on page 18 of this presentation. Owned Real Estate EBITDA excludes any G&A associated with managing real estate.
(3) Based on Q1 2008 balance sheet..
Valuing Wendy’s / Arby’s Combination
22
Triarc’s Offer
On April 24, 2008, Triarc, the franchisor of the Arby's restaurant system, and Wendy’s signed a definitive merger agreement
All-stock transaction in which Wendy’s shareholders will receive a fixed ratio of 4.25 shares of Triarc for each share of Wendy’s
Triarc’s sole operating business is Arby’s
Combined Wendy’s and Arby’s system would have over 10,000 restaurants in the US and ~$12.5bn of system sales
Triarc CEO, Roland Smith, will become the CEO of the pro forma Company
Triarc has identified:
G&A savings of $60mm in the combined company
Operational efficiencies of $100mm at Wendy’s operated stores
23
Arby’s
Second largest sandwich chain in the USApproximately 3,700 restaurants
Approximately 70% of systemwiderestaurants are franchised
Estimated $3.5bn in systemwide sales
Track record of turning around underperforming company-operated restaurants and improving margins
Estimated $160mm of EBITDA in FY’08E (2)
Implied stock price: $6.59(1)
EV: $1.2bn Equity Value: $0.6mm Net Debt: $0.6bn
Ticker: TRY (1) Based on a fixed exchange ratio of 4.25x and $28 share price for Wendy’s
(2) Triarc EBITDA excludes one-time and non- recurring expenses and is based on the recent Triarc / Wendy’s investor presentation.
24
Triarc’s Offer: What’s Really Happening…
In the proposed transaction, Wendy’s, which currently has a market cap of $2.45bn and is currently trading at 8.9x ’08E EBITDA, is buying Triarc at 7.4x EBITDA for ~$600mm in an all-stock transaction
Triarc Deal Capitalization and Trading Multiple
_______________________________________________
(1) Based on Triarc’s Q1 2008 Balance sheet. Net debt includes Triarc’s $59mm of cash and cash equivalents, $18mm of restricted cash and equivalents, and $97mm of long-term investments, the majority of which is an investment in Trian. Net debt excludes the value of Deerfield REIT notes and Deerfield REIT common stock.
.
$ in millions, except per share dataWendy's recent stock price $28.00Conversion ratio 4.25x
Implied Triarc Stock Price $6.59
Triarc shares outstanding 93
Equity Value $611Plus: Triarc Net Debt (1) $580
Equals: Triarc Enterprise Value $1,191
FY 2008E Adjusted EBITDA $160
EV / 08E Adjusted EBITDA 7.4x
25
What Do Wendy’s Shareholders Get?
In acquiring Triarc, Wendy’s shareholders are getting:
Arby’s at an attractive price of 7.4x EBITDA
Strong senior management
Management with proven turnaround experience
Improved probability of achieving ~$100mm of operating efficiencies at Wendy’s company-operated stores
$60mm of G&A synergies
26
Wendy’s / Arby’s Combination
Based on the assumptions below, the Pro Forma combined Company would have $473mm of ’08E EBITDA without any cost savings. Assuming cost savings, the Pro Forma combined Company would have $633mm of EBITDA and is trading at 6.3x EBITDA
(1) 2008E EBITDA estimates exclude non-recurring and one-time items.(2) Fully diluted shares based on all options outstanding and the treasury stock method.(3) Triarc EBITDA is based on Triarc Restaurant segment EBITDA and excludes $128mm of FY 2007A corporate expense, which is expected to be non-recurring.(4) See footnote 1 on page 23.
$ in millions except per share data FY 2008E(1)
Wendy's diluted shares outstanding (2) 89 Wendy's EBITDA $313Incremental shares issued 21 Triarc EBITDA (Arby's segment) (3) 160Pro Forma diluted shares 111 Combined EBITDA $473
PF EV / EBITDA (no savings) 8.5xRecent equity price $28Pro Forma equity market value $3,095
G&A savings $60Wendy's existing net debt $335 Operating efficiencies at Wendy's OpCo 100Plus: Triarc existing net debt (4) 580 Total costs savings $160Equals: Pro Forma net debt $915
Pro Forma EBITDA w/ savings $633Pro Forma Enterprise value $4,010 PF EV / EBITDA (w/ savings) 6.3x
8.9x 8.5x
6.3x
10.7x 10.6x10.0x
9.3x
0.0x
2.0x
4.0x
6.0x
8.0x
10.0x
12.0x
WEN WEN WEN YUM MCD BKC SONC
27
Comparables Are Trading at over 10x ’08E EBITDA
Wendy’s Standalone
“Unfixed”
Wendy’s Combined with Arby’s
With Cost Savings
EV / 2008E EBITDA Multiples
Wendy’s Combined with Arby’s
No Cost Savings
28
Valuing the Wendy’s / Arby’s Combination
Assuming $160mm of cost savings and a valuation multiple of 10x – 10.5x EBITDA, Wendy’s would be worth $49 - $52 per share, a return of 75% - 85% percent from current levels
38.39048 9.0x 9.5x 10.0x 10.5x$120 $40 $43 $45 $48140 $42 $44 $47 $50160 $43 $46 $49 $52180 $45 $48 $51 $54
9.0x 9.5x 10.0x 10.5x$120 42.9% 52.5% 62.1% 71.7%140 48.7% 58.6% 68.5% 78.5%160 54.6% 64.8% 75.0% 85.2%180 60.4% 70.9% 81.5% 92.0%
Cost Savings ($ in mm)
Cost Savings ($ in mm)
Share price assuming various EV/ EBITDA multiples and cost saving levels
Stock price returns assuming various EV/ EBITDA multiples and cost saving levels
29
Potential Future Upside
Beyond “fixing” the business, there are several additional levers which can create significant shareholder value at Wendy’s. We have not included any of these in our analysis
Breakfast offering at Wendy’s
Could be worth an incremental $5 per share depending on success of rollout
Share repurchase opportunity
Management has the ability to sell real estate or sale-leaseback stores and repurchase over 40% of Wendy’s current standalone market cap
Combined company has only 1.9x Net Debt / “Unfixed” EBITDA
Sizable share repurchase before “fixing” the business could create significant incremental returns
International growth opportunity for Wendy’s concept
30
Conclusion: Why We Like Wendy’s
Good business trading at an attractive price even on an “unfixed” and standalone basis
Significant turnaround opportunity at Wendy’s company-operated stores
Triarc offer brings experienced leadership and allows Wendy’s to purchase Arby’s at an attractive price
Triarc offer allows Wendy’s shareholders to benefit from the majority of the G&A synergies
Wendy’s / Arby’s combination could be worth over $50 per share after achieving cost savings