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Environm
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Welcome back!
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Environm
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Measuring benefits and costs
The benefits and costs of wilderness preservation in Vermont
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Environm
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Measuring benefits and costsHow do we distinguish between market and nonmarket benefits of wilderness in VT?
Market benefits can be measured from market activity
Non-market benefits must be measured by ‘revealed’ or ‘stated’ preference
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Environm
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Measuring benefits and costsThe nonmarket benefits of wilderness in VT USE value
Logging vs. recreation OPTION value
The possibility of keystone species EXISTENCE valueOur obligation to a ‘connected’ earth
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Environm
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Demand = WTP
Q1Q0
Consumer surplus from preservation
Acres of wilderness
WTP for increase in public good ≈ Δ consumer surplus
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Environm
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Measuring benefits and costsThe benefits of wilderness in VT The travel cost method
WTP for recreation at Bread Loaf The hedonic pricing method
WTP for housing prices The contingent valuation method
WTP for option and existence value
“Revealed preference”
“Stated preference”
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Environm
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Measuring benefits and costsFive potential biases of the CV method ‘Prospect theory’
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Environm
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Demand = WTA?
Q1Q0
Consumer surplus from preservation
Acres of wilderness
How might this contrast to WTA from going from Q1 to Q0?
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Environm
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Measuring benefits and costsFive potential biases of the CV method ‘Prospect theory’ Free-riding Strategic Embeddedness Hypothetical
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Environm
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Measuring benefits and costsRisk assessment and the valuation of life Epidemiological studies Animal studies ‘Dose-response model’ Conservative modeling – the right approach?
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Environm
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Measuring benefits and costsRisk assessment and the valuation of life Overall risk = actual risk (1.4/10,000 for car accidents) * number of people exposed (300,000,000) = 42,000 deaths The role of perception and control Lack of knowledge Risk aversion and the insurance motive
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Environm
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ics
Measuring benefits and costsThe total costs of environmental policy Engineering costs overstated if …
Regulation increases productivityCreates ‘green jobs’
Engineering costs understated if ..Regulation decreases productivityIncreases unemploymentIncreases moonopoly power
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Environm
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ics
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Environm
ental Econom
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Measuring benefits and costsThe indirect costs of environmental policy? Productivity impacts and the ‘Porter Hypothesis’
Very little (if any) negative effects (Meyer 1993)
The ‘jobs – environment’ trade-off?While there are losers, this effect is way over-hyped
Pollution havens?
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Environm
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Measuring benefits and costsThe ‘hidden’ costs of environmental policy Monopoly costs
The example of waste management The ‘double-dividend’ controversy
1. Correcting for externalities raises prices2. Higher prices lower real wages3. Lower real wages means less output
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Environm
ental Econom
ics
PMC
Demand
P0
Q0
SMC = PMC + E
Producer surplus
Consumer surplus
Society’s net benefits = A - B
Corn (bushels/year)
We can show that a pollution tax increases welfare …
Total pollution
cost of externality
BA
C
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Environm
ental Econom
ics
PMC
Demand
P0
PC
Q0Q1
PMC (with tax)
Producer surplus
Consumer surplus
Society’s net benefits = A
Corn (bushels/year)
BUT the pollution tax, which increases welfare, raises prices …
PS
Tax revenues
Total pollution
Pollutiontax
DWL
A
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Environm
ental Econom
ics
Measuring benefits and costsThe ‘hidden’ costs of environmental policy Monopoly costs
The example of waste management The ‘double-dividend’ controversy
1. Correcting for externalities raises prices2. Higher prices lower real wages3. Lower real wages means less output
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Environm
ental Econom
ics
Labor supply
D (without payroll tax)
W0
W1
Q0Q1 Labor (hours)
Nominal wage ($ per hour)
DWL
D' (with payroll tax)
The double dividend should come from lowering the payroll tax
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Environm
ental Econom
ics
Labor supply
W0
W1
Q0Q1 Labor (hours)
Nominal wage ($ per hour)
D'' (lower tax)
DWL
Labor supply (higher prices)
Q2
Net increase of DWL in labor
market
But with higher prices, the last dollar earned at work is worth less …. … so, at the margin, people will work less and relax more.
W2
DD'
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Environm
ental Econom
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Measuring benefits and costsThe ‘hidden’ costs of environmental policy The ‘double-dividend’ controversy
Benefit from lowering pollution in the goods marketBenefit from lowering distortions in the labor market Cost from lowering output from labor market
‘Double dividend’
The current debate: how big is the output cost?
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Environm
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Benefits and costs of policiesThe use of BC analysis Not used (by statute) for air, water and hazardous waste – safety standard Used for pesticides, insecticides, and other toxics – efficiency standard Yet benefits and costs still estimated and part of public policy debate
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Environm
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Benefits and costs of policiesA September 2011 study from the EPI
The combined annual benefits from three major proposed rules examined here exceed their costs by $62 billion to $188 billion a year. The benefit/cost ratio ranges from 6-to-1 to 15-to-1.
When fully in effect in 2014, the combined costs of the major rules finalized by the Obama administration’s EPA would amount to significantly less than 0.1% of the economy.
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Environm
ental Econom
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Benefits and costs of policiesSome common sense guidelines The eight principles of Arrow et al. (1996)1. Useful for comparing favorable and
unfavorable effects
2. Not precluded from using
3. Required for major decisions
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Environm
ental Econom
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Benefits and costs of policiesSome common sense guidelines The eight principles of Arrow et al. (1996)4. Not bound by benefit-cost tests
5. Benefits and costs quantified wherever possible, with uncertainties identified
Values of affected individuals
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Environm
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Benefits and costs of policiesSome common sense guidelines The eight principles of Arrow et al. (1996)6. External reviews desirable
7. Core set of assumptionsDiscount rate, reducing risk of death and accidents, values of improved health
8. Distributional consequences
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Environm
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The potential use of DDT and GMOs
What standard is appropriate?What discount rate is appropriate?How measure benefits?How measure costs?Should the cost-effective solution be adopted?What do you recommend?
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Environm
ental Econom
ics
Benefits and costs of policiesSome common sense guidelines The eight principles of Arrow et al. (1996)1. Useful for comparing favorable and
unfavorable effects
2. Not precluded from using
3. Required for major decisions
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Environm
ental Econom
ics
Benefits and costs of policiesSome common sense guidelines The eight principles of Arrow et al. (1996)4. Not bound by benefit-cost tests
5. Benefits and costs quantified wherever possible, with uncertainties identified
Values of affected individuals
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Environm
ental Econom
ics
Benefits and costs of policiesSome common sense guidelines The eight principles of Arrow et al. (1996)6. External reviews desirable
7. Core set of assumptionsDiscount rate, reducing risk of death and accidents, values of improved health
8. Distributional consequences
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Environm
ental Econom
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Benefits and costs of policiesThe case of Obama EPA rules What are the main conclusions of the EPI report? What other approaches could be used to assess the effectiveness of these rules besides benefit-cost analysis? Should these approaches be used as a substitute or a complement to benefit-cost analysis? Defend your answer.
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Environm
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Benefits and costs of policiesControlling the impacts of consumption Consumption tax? Mandated vacations? Regulation of advertising?
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Environm
ental Econom
ics
The potential use of DDT and GMOs
What standard is appropriate?What discount rate is appropriate?How measure benefits?How measure costs?Should the cost-effective solution be adopted?What do you recommend?
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Environm
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Incentive-based regulationA three-step approach
1. Set standardEfficiency, safety or ecological sustainability
2. Recognize limits of governanceImperfect information, political influence, inadequate enforcement
3. Look for ways to do better!IB policies and clean technology
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Environm
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Incentive-based regulationOne of the most significant successes of economics since 1970
A dramatic, encouraging learning curve
‘At Earth Day 1970, economists were ready!’
In 2011, economists are wiser
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Environm
ental Econom
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Incentive-based regulationThe typical C&C system Identify the polluting activity and polluters Designate an‘ambient’ standard Mandate types of technology
Very frequent in USA since 1970Example: the original Clean Air Act (CAA)
Best Available Control Technology (BACT)
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Environm
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The cost effectiveness rule (p. 304)‘Cost effectiveness is achieved if and only if the marginal cost of reduction is equal for each pollution source’
Incentive-based regulation
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Environm
ental Econom
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Incentive-based regulationThe evolution of IB policy instruments Green (Pigouvian) taxes
Tradable permits
Information–based regulation
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Environm
ental Econom
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Incentive-based regulationGreen taxes Calculate the marginal social damage Tax the polluting activity at that rate Use revenues to offset other taxes More frequent in EU and developing worldExample: Australia’s new carbon tax
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Environm
ental Econom
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Incentive-based regulationTradable permits Calculate the desired quantity of emissions Issue and/or sell this amount of permits Monitor market and enforce activity Growing rapidly in US and developing world
Example: CO2 emissions in the EU …. and in New England (RGGI) and California (AB 32)
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Environm
ental Econom
ics
The cost effectiveness rule (p. 304)
Incentive-based regulation
The Coase corollary (p. 311)“If there is a well-functioning permit market, a cost-effective outcome will be achieved by a marketable permit system regardless of the initial allocation of permits.”
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Environm
ental Econom
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Costs with taxes and permits
Incentive-based regulation
Two firms: ‘green’ (25 tons of emissions) and ‘brown’ (150 tons of emissions)Social goal: reduce emissions from 175 tons to 100 tonsTwo alternatives: tax at $60 per ton or give 50 (per ton) permits to each firm
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Environm
ental Econom
ics
$
MACG
Qe = 25
$
$60
$100
Quantity of emissions
Costs for green firm with taxes and permits
Tax payments = $60*10 = - $600Abatement cost = $60*15*1/2 = - $450
Total cost = - $1050
Qe* = 10
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Environm
ental Econom
ics$
MACK
Qe**
= 90 Qe = 150
$
$60
$150$Costs for brown firm with taxes and permits
Tax payments = $60*90 = $5400Abatement cost = $60*60*1/2 = $1800
Total cost = $7200
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Environm
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$
MACG
Qe* = 10 Qe = 25 Qp =
50
$
$60
$100
Quantity of emissions
Costs for green firm with taxes and permits
Permit sales= $60*40 = + $2400Abatement cost = $60*15*1/2 = - $450
Total revenue = + $1950
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Environm
ental Econom
ics$
MACK
Qp = 50 Qe**
= 90 Qe = 150
$
$60
$150$Costs for brown firm with taxes and permits
Permit cost = $60*40 = $2400Abatement cost = $60*60*1/2 = $1800
Total cost = $4200
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Environm
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MAC
20
Long-run cost savings and pollution reduction with ‘green’ tax
Quantity of emissions
$
0
Tax ($10)
CA
Tax payments
The brown firm asks: should we go green?
Annual cost savings
Should they make this investment?If the NPV of Benefits > Initial cost
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Environm
ental Econom
icsPotential problems with IB-systems
Thin markets and high transactions costs
Monitoring and compliance“Hot spots” (non-uniformly mixed pollutants)
Development of market powerRelocation effectThe potential of limited permit life
Both taxes and permits
Permits only
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Environm
ental Econom
icsPotential problems with IB-systems
The need to change the tax rateThe political setting (in the USA)
Taxes only
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Environm
ental Econom
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Incentive-based regulationHow to deal with uncertainty? When the marginal benefit of abatement is relatively steep … you want to ‘stick your landing!’
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Environm
ental Econom
icsMC of reduction is constant (<$10) but uncertain – and the authority choose a $5
tax
Taxes or permits when the marginal benefit of abatement is relatively
steep?
T = $5
E* = 75Quantity of abatement
$
MAC = $6
MAC = $4
Quantity of emissions
E0 = 150
How many emissions if the MAC is $6?
How many emissions if the MAC is $4?
E = 0
$10
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Environm
ental Econom
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Incentive-based regulationHow to deal with uncertainty? When the marginal cost of abatement is relatively steep … you don’t want to overpay.
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Environm
ental Econom
ics
P1
Quantity of abatement
$
Quantity of emissions
MC2 (actual)
Qa2
MC1 (estimate)
Qa1 = permit allocation
P3
Qa3
Taxes or permits when the marginal costs of abatement
are relatively steep?
MB
Tax =
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Environm
ental Econom
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Incentive-based regulationHow to deal with uncertainty? So given the uncertainties and the nature of the MB and MC curves, what would be better for GHG abatement?
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Environm
ental Econom
ics
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Environm
ental Econom
ics
PT
Quantity of permits
$
Qa2
S
100
P2
Equilibria with the hybrid policy (after Wilcoxen and McKibbin)
D1
D2
P1
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Environm
ental Econom
ics
Profit-maximization under a C&C regime Your MAC = N*(a^2), where N is the last digit of your college ID and a is the amount of abatement (e.g., a convex cost curve)
Example – If N = 5: cost of abating 0 units = 0; 1 unit = 5; 2 units = 20, and so on ….
If you’re profit maximizing quantity of abatement = 2, by how much would your costs increase under a C&C policy where you have to abate by one unit?
Our trading exercise
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Environm
ental Econom
ics
Profit-maximization under a C&C regime Your MAC = N*(a^2), where N is the last digit of your college ID and a is the amount of abatement (e.g., a convex cost curve)
Example – If N = 5: cost of abating 0 units = 0; 1 unit = 5; 2 units = 20, and so on ….
If you’re profit maximizing quantity of abatement = 2, how much would you abate if the pollution tax = $0.50? $5.50? $20.50? $50.50? $100.50 How much did you save compared to a C&C policy?
Our trading exercise
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Environm
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Profit-maximization under a permit regime Figure out what price you would be willing to accept to sell your single permit Figure out what price you would be willing to pay to buy a second permit Figure out the price range where you wouldn’t trade GO! How much did you save compared to a C&C policy?
Our trading exercise
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Environm
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Incentive-based regulationWhat can we learn from experience?
Success of lead trading and CFCs• Internal trading, time limit, relative
simplicity The mixed-success of ETP, CA clunkers and RECLAIM• Thin markets, high transactions costs,
relative complexity (hotspots, enforcement, NAAQs)
The SO2 – Acid Rain program
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Environm
ental Econom
ics
The SO2 trading program
How political support grew
The essence of the program
The results so far
Cost-effective regulation: permits
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Environm
ental Econom
ics
Incentive-based regulationWhat can we learn from experience?
Lead trading and CFCsETP and RECLAIMThe SO2 – Acid Rain programCommand and control vs. ITQs in fisheriesRGGI – an updateRegulation in India (final week)
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Environm
ental Econom
ics
Global challenges: energy & povertyWhat do we mean by ‘energy’!?
‘The ability to do work’ The history of humanity = the history of energy use The dilemma of technological improvements
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Environm
ental Econom
ics
A 21st Century blueprint?
Getting the prices rightA process of ‘relocalization’A renewed valuation of community
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Environm
ental Econom
ics
Global challenges: energy & poverty
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Environm
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Global challenges: energy & poverty
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Global challenges: energy & povertyGoodstein’s 3-step approach
1. Set standardEfficiency, safety or ecological sustainability
2. Recognize limits of governanceImperfect information, political influence, inadequate enforcement
3. Look for ways to do better!IB policies and clean technology
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Environm
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Global challenges: energy & povertySoft Energy Paths (1977) Amory Lovins
The hard energy pathCheap electricity and petroleum – reliance on coal, oil, and nuclear power
The soft energy pathEfficient use of clean energy – promotion of renewables (solar and wind)
Energy paths and path dependence
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Global challenges: energy & povertyWhat do we mean by a clean technology?
1. Provides comparable-quality services 2. Cost competitive on a market basis
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$
Quantity
Economies of scale in energy production
LRATC
Cm
“If can’t compete on basis of private costs, wont be adopted”
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Environm
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Global challenges: energy & povertyWhat do we mean by a clean technology?
1. Provides comparable-quality services 2. Cost competitive on a market basis 3. Environmentally superior
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Environm
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Global challenges: energy & povertyAre there market failures?
Potential market ‘obstacles’• Lack of information• Sunk costs• Thin markets• Limited access to capital• High discount rates
Potential government ‘obstacles’• Awful subsidy policies• Failure of regulation
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Global challenges: energy & povertyOther justifications?
Positive externalities• “Externalities in R & D—the fact that no
single firm has the incentive to invest in research that will benefit everyone in the industry. The estimated rate of return to public spending on agricultural research has been between 45 and 60 percent” (Henderson and Isham 2010)
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Global challenges: energy & povertyTo try to get on the winning path ..
Level the playing field• Get rid of bad subsidies and internalize
negative externalitiesPromote only clear environmental winnersFocus on cost-effectiveness
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Global challenges: energy & povertySpecific steps to get on the path
R&D funding• ‘The Breakthrough Institute, a forceful
advocate for “making clean energy cheap,” recommends R & D investments in the United States of at least $15 billion annually.’ (Henderson and Isham 2010)
Technology forcing standards• Recent changes in the CAFE standards
– 35.5 mpg by 2016– 54.5 mpg by 2025 – this is huge!
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Global challenges: energy & povertySpecific steps to get on the path
Infrastructure investment• The promise of the ‘smartgrid’
Producer subsidies• Price preferences and procurement contracts
– The leadership of the Defense Department
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Global challenges: energy & povertyThe current energy picture in the USA
Energy consumption/capita over 20 years determined by oil shocks, economic growth, and policiesThree core problems: relative abundance of cheap dirty energy, consumer preferences, and political influence
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Environm
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1,845,016
82,7739,782
479,39913,351
628,644
356,45377,183 -4,040 3,612
Coal[1]Petroleum Liquids[2]Petroleum CokeNatural GasOther Gases[3]NuclearHydroelectric ConventionalOther Renewables[4]Hydroelectric Pumped StorageOther[5]
Net generation by energy source: 1997 (Electric Power Monthly)
Global challenges: energy & poverty
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Environm
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1,850,750
23,39713,528
981,815
11,193
806,968
257,052 168,144 -4,091 11,273
Coal[1]Petroleum Liquids[2]Petroleum CokeNatural GasOther Gases[3]NuclearHydroelectric ConventionalOther Renewables[4]Hydroelectric Pumped StorageOther[5]
Net generation by energy source: 2010 (Electric Power Monthly)
Global challenges: energy & poverty
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Environm
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Global challenges: energy & povertyTechnology options: electricity and heat
1. Demand side managementNot conservation, but delivering same service with less energyThe example of Efficiency Vermont
What about the supply side?
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Environm
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Global challenges: energy & povertyTechnology options: electricity and heat
1. Demand side managementNot conservation, but delivering same service with less energy
2. CoalAcid rain, air pollution, underground mining, strip mining, and transport .. and GHGTHE BIGGEST CHALLENGE WE FACE
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Global challenges: energy & povertyTechnology options: electricity and heat
3. Nuclear powerNo GHG emissions, but problems of safety, high-level and low-level wastes
4. Natural gas (methane)Low sulfur and less CO2, but also a GHGFRACKING IS HERE TO STAY
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Global challenges: energy & povertyTechnology options: electricity and heat
5. Hydroelectric powerNo GHG emissions, but problems of ecosystem damage and social equity
6. Passive solarHeating water and homesGREAT NEWS – COSTS COMING DOWN
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Global challenges: energy & povertyTechnology options: electricity and heat
7. Active solarSolar thermal and photovoltaic power
8. Wind powerNo GHG emissions, but problems of aesthetics [NOT BIRDS!]COSTS LOW, PROMISE HIGH
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Environm
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Global challenges: energy & povertyPolicy options: electricity and heat
Step 1. Pick winnersEfficiency, wind and photovoltaics
Step 2. Level the playing fieldSTOP SUBSIDIZING FOSSIL FUELS!!!
Step 3. Directly promote clean technologies
The challenges of equity, strategic behavior, free riding and rebound effects.
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Poverty, growth and the environment
Natural capital
EconomicActivity
Social capital
Human capital
Physical capital
Sources Natural capital
Social capital
Human capital
Physical capital
Is extensive overuse of sources and sinks inevitable with rapid growth?
Sinks
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The IPAT equation (Paul Ehrlich 1971) Environmental Impact = Population (6 billion people) Affluence (0.1 cars per person) Technology (5.4 tons CO2 per car) 3.45 billion tons CO2 per year
Poverty, growth and the environment
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The stages of economic growth (Rostow)
Agricultural economy
Manufacturing economy
Service economy
Poverty, growth and the environment
Information-based economy
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The Bruntland Commision Population and human resources Food security Improved technology Resource conservation
Poverty, growth and the environment
The obligation of the wealthy: to promote poverty alleviation and sustainable development
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The link between poverty and the environment Poverty environmental problems
Poverty, growth and the environment
Drinking waterSewageIndoor air pollution
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Environm
ental Econom
icsPopulation without safe water
$100 $1,000 $10,000
Per capita income (logarithmic)
100% 80%
60% 40%
20%
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Environm
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icsUrban population without adequate sanitation
$100 $1,000 $10,000
Per capita income (logarithmic)
70% 60%
40% 20%
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The link between poverty and the environment Poverty environmental problems
Poverty, growth and the environment
Drinking waterSewageIndoor air pollution (Bailis et al, Science, April 2005)
Under a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, household indoor air pollution will cause an estimated 9.8 million premature deaths by the year 2030.
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The link between poverty and the environment Poverty environmental problems The poor can not afford conservation
Poverty, growth and the environment
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Environm
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Environm
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The link between poverty and the environment Poverty environmental problems The poor can not afford conservation The rich demand more pollution control
Poverty, growth and the environment
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Poverty, growth and the environment
$2500 - $3000 GDP/Capita
Urban SO2
‘The Environmental Kuznets Curve’
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The link between poverty and the environment Poverty environmental problems The poor can not afford conservation The rich demand more pollution control Increased income slower population growth
Poverty, growth and the environment
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Controlling population growth Balanced growth and redistribution Reduced infant and childhood mortality Education Family planning
Poverty, growth and the environment
Coercive policies
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The IPAT equation: rich countries
Environmental Impact = Population Affluence TechnologyThe need for reinvesting capital (as discussed in
Goodstein and McKibben)
Poverty, growth and the environment
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Top ten reasons to be pessimistic about GCC
10. GHG abatement is the ultimate public good
Completely non-excludable Completely non-divisible
9. The temptation to free-ride is enormous
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Top ten reasons to be pessimistic about GCC
8. The main constraint to free-riding is currently Hardin’s ‘appeals to conscience’7. America is a consuming culture
6. Future generations will benefit more … and we do (and should) discount the future
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Top ten reasons to be pessimistic about GCC
5. In the developed world, the political system is broken
4. In the developing world, the optimal choice is to not abate
3. In the developing world, the political system is broken
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Top ten reasons to be pessimistic about GCC
2. Global solutions look like foreign aid … and Americans don’t like foreign aid.1. Global solutions will require vigorous enforcement and ‘there is no global police’
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Top ten reasons to be optimistic about GCC
10. Arctic ice is melting and frogs are disappearing
9. The national media FINALLY gets it (USA Today, Fox News, Time, …. )8. The substitutes are coming, and politicians are starting to like them
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Top ten reasons to be optimistic about GCC
7. National-level NGOs are well organized and effective (e.g., CERES)6. State and local-level NGOs are well organized and effective (e.g., CCAN)5. The biggest political flaw in the US is under attack
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Top ten reasons to be optimistic about GCC
4. The biggest political flaw in the developing world is under attack
3. Durban is upon us (2011)
2. The growth of regional policies (RGGI and SB32 in California)
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Top ten reasons to be optimistic about GCC
1. Civil society groups dedicated to building a market-friendly, clean energy future
and (in a tribute to Spinal Tap) … … the power of Stein’s law:“If something cannot go on for ever,
it will stop” Herbert Stein