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Brad DeLong
Grasping Reality with the Invisible Hand
Fair, Balanced, and Reality-Based
Economics 1: Principles of Economics | Economics 211:
Research Seminar | Economics 210a: Introduction to
Economic History | Economics 191: Topics in Economic
Research | Friday Berkeley Economic History Laboratory
Lunch | Haas PhDBA 239S: Finance Seminar | Economics 237:
Macroeconomics Seminar |
Project Syndicate | Twitterstorms | Why Oh Why Can't We Have a Better Press
Corps? | Obama Administration | The Great Depression | Fiscal Policy | Financial
Policy | Monetary Policy
FEBRUARY 14, 2012
HOISTED FROM THE ARCHIVES: UNLEASH CHIANG KAI-SHEK!!
Brad DeLong: Unleash Chiang Kai-Shek!!:
I'm sorry, but this is just too weird:
Gainesville.com | The Gainesville Sun | Gainesville, Fla.: After more than an hour of solemn ceremony naming Rep.
Marco Rubio, R-West Miami, as the 2007-08 House speaker, Gov. Jeb Bush stepped to the podium in the House
chamber last week and told a short story about "unleashing Chang," his "mystical warrior" friend. Here are Bush's
words, spoken before hundreds of lawmakers and politicians:
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Chang is a mystical warrior. Chang is somebody who believes in conservative principles, believes in entrepreneurial
capitalism, believes in moral values that underpin a free society.
I rely on Chang with great regularity in my public life. He has been by my side and sometimes I let him down. But
Chang, this mystical warrior, has never let me down.
Bush then unsheathed a golden sword and gave it to Rubio as a gift. "I'm going to bestow to you the sword of a great
conservative warrior," he said, as the crowd roared.
The crowd, however, could be excused for not understanding Bush's enigmatic foray into the realm of Eastern
mysticism. We're here to help. In a 1989 Washington Post article on the politics of tennis, former President George
Bush was quoted as threatening to "unleash Chang" as a means of intimidating other players. The saying was
apparently quite popular with Gov. Bush's father, and referred to a legendary warrior named Chang who was called
upon to settle political disputes in Chinese dynasties of yore. The phrase has evolved, under Gov. Jeb Bush's use, to
mean the need to fix conflicts or disagreements over an issue. Faced with a stalemate, the governor apparently
"unleashes Chang" as a rhetorical device, signaling it's time to stop arguing and start agreeing.
No word on if Rubio will unleash Chang, or the sword, as he faces squabbles in the future.
When George H. W. Bush in the 1970s and 1980s threatened to "unleash Chang" on his
tennis opponents, he was referring to China's onetime strongman and thereafter
Taiwan's dictator Chiang Kaishek, leader of the Nationalist Party, the man who had
largely reunified China in the 1920s with his army's "Northern Expedition," lost the
Chinese Civil War to Mao Zedong's Chinese Communist Party, and then taken refuge
with his Guomindang party cadres on Taiwan. After the start of the Korean War, the
American 7th Fleet protected Chiang (and Taiwan) from Mao's People's LiberationArmy.
Republican wingnuts, however, pretended that the 7th Fleet actually protected Mao's
Communists (who had, after all, won the Chinese Civil War) from Chiang's Nationalists
(who had, after all, lost it) by keeping Chiang Kaishek leashed. They periodically
called for the U.S. to "unleash Chiang Kaishek"--so that Chiang, you see, could invade
and conquer the Chinese mainland.
When George H. W. Bush, playing tennis (and losing) in the 1970s and 1980s, would
threaten to "unleash Chiang," he was mocking the right-wing nuts of his generation.
But George H. W. Bush's sons--even the smart one, Jeb--never got the joke. They, you
see, didn't know enough about world history or even the history of the Republican
Party to know who Chiang Kaishek was, or what "Unleash Chiang!" meant. Hence Jeb
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Bush's explanation that twentieth-century Chinese nationalist, socialist, general, and
dictator Chiang Kaishek was a "mystical warrior... who believes in conservative
principles, believes in entrepreneurial capitalism, believes in moral values that
underpin a free society."
To me, that level of uncuriosity is scary. Why is this family ruling us, again?
UPDATE: Tim Noah claims that Jeb Bush did indeed know back in 2005 what "Unleash
Chiang!" meant, but chose to pretend that he did not.
I have no idea why Tim Noah thinks this--Noah appears to be working off nothing but
the hypothesis that Jeb Bush knows everything that Doro Bush Koch does. But my
sister knows lots of things that I don't know:
Marco Rubio Flunks History | The New Republic: Jeb's whimsical reworking of "Chang" from a real-life quixotic
obsession of the 1950s American right into a "mythical conservative warrior" was his way to perpetuate a cherished
family tradition without re-litigating the question of who lost China. Since Doro knows its real provenance, I assume
Jeb must, too.
10:28 AM in Politics |Permalink |Comments (0)
LIVEBLOGGING WORLD WAR II: FEBRUARY 14, 1942
Nazi Germany's Army Group Center: situation map:
09:44 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
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QUOTE OF THE DAY: FEBRUARY 14, 2012
"James [II Stuart]'s opponents were, by and large, revolutionaries, not reactionaries.
They appreciated that only a modernized English state could compete in
contemporary Europe. Unlike James, however, the revolutionaries looked to the
Dutch Republic rather than to the French monarchy for political inspiration."
--Steve Pincus, 1688: The First Modern Revolution
09:36 AM in Books,History | Permalink | Comments (0)
NO EXCUSE FOR ANYBODY INTERESTED IN GOOD POLICY TO VOTE FORMITT ROMNEY
A correspondent writes, apropos of the astonishingly dishonorable Mitt Romney oped:
As I am sure you all remember, going into bankruptcy with no source of continued funding would mean liquidation for
the auto makers and everyone understood that at the time including Keith Hennessy in public.
Saying he was for managed bankruptcy without a funding source was like saying he was for medical treatment but at
the time refused to pay for the medicine or that he was for having a kid finish their degree only he refused to pay the
tuition.
Other things of note: when he is blasting the pension slashing of non UAW folks, I assume he means dumping them
on the PBGC, where their pensions would be much lower for people less than 65. but Bain did exactly that same
move with several companies it took through bankruptcy--dumped the pensions onto the pbgc--so it's ironic he would
be touting his private sector experience here...
08:24 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
DISAPPOINTED: FLYING DOWN THE CALIFORNIA COAST AT DAWN CAN BEGLORIOUS...
...but not if the coast from Monterey to Ventura is socked in by fog...
07:55 AM | Permalink | Comments (1)
PAUL KRUGMAN: CAMERON AND THE CONFIDENCE FAIRY: AN UPDATE
PK:
Cameron and the Confidence Fairy: An Update: Back in June 2010, when George Osborne unveiled the Cameron
governments austerity plan, it was all about confidence:
Higher interest rates, more business failures, sharper rises in unemployment, and potentially even a catastrophic loss
of confidence and the end of the recovery. We cannot let that happen. This Budget is needed to deal with our
countrys debts. This Budget is needed to give confidence to our economy. This is the unavoidable Budget.
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So hows it going?
The Cameron government likes to point to low British interest rates which are not just the result of safe-haven flight
into the bonds of every advanced-country government that still has its own currency. Except, actually they are. Still,
the governments commitment to fiscal responsibility has led to rising consumer confidence. Or, actually, not.
Business confidence! Thats the ticket! Or, well, no. Still, Serious People are sure that the policy was necessary
and is yielding results. I wonder what it would take to convince them otherwise.update/?pagewanted=all#>######
07:23 AM in Economics,Economics: Fiscal Policy,Economics: Macro, MoralResponsibility | Permalink | Comments (0)
PAUL KRUGMAN IS MUCH MORE POLITE TO JOHN COCHRANE AND JOHNTAYLOR THAN ECONOMICS OF CONTEMPT IS
Paul Krugman:
It Was Lehman Wot Did It - NYTimes.com: These days the bizarre economic notions are flying so thick and fast that
its hard to keep up. Economics of Contempt informs us that Taylor and Cochrane(pdf) are denying the importance of
the Lehman shock. This is, among other things, a demonstration of just how far Chicago has run away from the
legacy of Milton Friedman, who put bank runs starting with the failure of small banks at the heart of his account
of the Great Depression. But its also amazing given that these events were so recent, and so clear.
Look at what happened to yields on riskier, illiquid assets. Anyone else have the impression that something
happened in the second half of September 2008?
Now, I would argue that Lehman was more of a trigger than an ultimate cause, that the overhang of household debt
rather that continuing disruption of the financial sector is whats holding us back now. But trying to diminish the
centrality of Lehman to the crisis with arguments to the effect that most of Lehmans big counterparties survived
because the government bailed them out is just amazing.
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Heh. Indeed.
As I, at least, see it, the key to Lehman was that in its aftermath not only was a great
deal of liquid cash frozen but nobody was certain how big the bailout would be or who
the bailout would go to or what institutions would still be surviving when the dust
cleared.
The settlement of the Bear-Stearns bankruptcy had convinced everybody that the U.S.
government had guaranteed the unsecured debt of practically every single
commercial bank, investment bank, and shadow bank in and outside the United
States--and thus that even though people felt overleveraged, it was still worthwhile
for them to hold on to their risky asset positions because in the end they were not
that risky.
Lehman revealed that that was not true.
And then, of course, the attempts by financial institutions to rebalance their
portfolios and shed risk made their risky assets all much, much, much more risky--and
diminished the willingness to hold them.
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Miss that--as it appears that Taylor and Cochrane have--and you have missed
practically everything important about the fall of 2008.
06:37 AM in Economics,Economics: Finance, Economics: Macro | Permalink| Comments (4)
ECONOMICS OF CONTEMPT IS VERY UNHAPPY THIS MORNING...Jeebus!
EOC:
Economics of Contempt: Mind-Boggling Nonsense from John Cochrane: After reading John Taylor and John
Cochrane's analyses of Lehman's failure, I'm beginning to understand how it's possible for economists to say that
"we're still arguing about the causes of the Great Depression." It's generally hard to come to an agreement when one
side simply lies, or refuses to acknowledge undeniable facts
06:18 AM in Economics,Economics: Finance, Economics: Macro | Permalink| Comments (4)
FEBRUARY 13, 2012
ECON 1: SPRING 2012: U.C. BERKELEY: SAMPLE EXAM--MIDTERM 1
Sample Midterm Exam
08:41 PM inBerkeley: Teaching, Berkeley: the University, Econ 1 Spring2012, Economics| Permalink| Comments (0)
DELONG SMACKDOWN SMACKDOWN WATCH BY DIGBY AND COMPANY: VONMISES AS PATRIARCH EDITION
Digby:
Hullabaloo:Update: Be sure to read Konczal's piece and the ensuing argument over Mises' "endorsement" of birth
control. He endorsed it --- for the husband/father to make women use if he didn't feel it was financially viable to have
more children. Rick Santorum wouldn't agree with that. But in the end they can both agree on one thing: men are
looking out for "the family" when they control women's reproduction. What could be wrong with that?
Mike Konczal:
Ludwig Von Mises Makes the Libertarian Case against Free Love (and Implicitly Against Birth Control) | Rortybomb:
Check out dueling Mises quotes and interpretation in the comment section from Gene Callahan - With the spreadand progress of capitalism, birth control becomes a universal practice and Corey Robin (whose recent book on
conservatives looks even stronger in light of these arguments by Mises) who points out that Mises isnt talking in
terms of womans autonomy but the husband as family owner: In the market economy every individual is
spontaneously intent upon not begetting children whom he could not rear without considerably lowering his familys
standard of life.
Corey Robin:
http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/economics/http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/economics_finance/http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/economics_finance/http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/economics_macro/http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2012/02/paul-krugman-is-much-more-polite-to-john-cochrane-and-john-taylor-than-economics-of-contempt-is.htmlhttp://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2012/02/paul-krugman-is-much-more-polite-to-john-cochrane-and-john-taylor-than-economics-of-contempt-is.htmlhttp://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2012/02/economics-of-contempt-is-very-unhappy-this-morning.htmlhttp://economicsofcontempt.blogspot.com/2010/02/mind-boggling-nonsense-from-john.htmlhttp://economicsofcontempt.blogspot.com/2010/02/mind-boggling-nonsense-from-john.htmlhttp://delong.typepad.com/sdj/economics/http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/economics_finance/http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/economics_finance/http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/economics_macro/http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2012/02/economics-of-contempt-is-very-unhappy-this-morning.htmlhttp://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2012/02/economics-of-contempt-is-very-unhappy-this-morning.htmlhttp://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2012/02/econ-1-spring-2012-uc-berkeley-sample-exam-midterm-1.htmlhttp://delong.typepad.com/20120213-sample-exam.pdfhttp://delong.typepad.com/sdj/teaching/http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/teaching/http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/berkeley_the_university/http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/econ-1-spring-2012/http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/econ-1-spring-2012/http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/economics/http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/economics/http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2012/02/econ-1-spring-2012-uc-berkeley-sample-exam-midterm-1.htmlhttp://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2012/02/econ-1-spring-2012-uc-berkeley-sample-exam-midterm-1.htmlhttp://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2012/02/delong-smackdown-smackdown-watch-by-digby-and-company-von-mises-as-patriarch-edition.htmlhttp://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2012/02/delong-smackdown-smackdown-watch-by-digby-and-company-von-mises-as-patriarch-edition.htmlhttp://digbysblog.blogspot.com/2012/02/free-markets-not-free-love.htmlhttp://digbysblog.blogspot.com/2012/02/free-markets-not-free-love.htmlhttp://rortybomb.wordpress.com/2012/02/13/von-mises-makes-the-libertarian-case-against-free-love-and-implicitly-against-birth-control/http://rortybomb.wordpress.com/2012/02/13/von-mises-makes-the-libertarian-case-against-free-love-and-implicitly-against-birth-control/http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/economics/http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/economics_finance/http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/economics_macro/http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2012/02/paul-krugman-is-much-more-polite-to-john-cochrane-and-john-taylor-than-economics-of-contempt-is.htmlhttp://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2012/02/economics-of-contempt-is-very-unhappy-this-morning.htmlhttp://economicsofcontempt.blogspot.com/2010/02/mind-boggling-nonsense-from-john.htmlhttp://delong.typepad.com/sdj/economics/http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/economics_finance/http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/economics_macro/http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2012/02/economics-of-contempt-is-very-unhappy-this-morning.htmlhttp://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2012/02/econ-1-spring-2012-uc-berkeley-sample-exam-midterm-1.htmlhttp://delong.typepad.com/20120213-sample-exam.pdfhttp://delong.typepad.com/sdj/teaching/http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/berkeley_the_university/http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/econ-1-spring-2012/http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/econ-1-spring-2012/http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/economics/http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2012/02/econ-1-spring-2012-uc-berkeley-sample-exam-midterm-1.htmlhttp://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2012/02/delong-smackdown-smackdown-watch-by-digby-and-company-von-mises-as-patriarch-edition.htmlhttp://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2012/02/delong-smackdown-smackdown-watch-by-digby-and-company-von-mises-as-patriarch-edition.htmlhttp://digbysblog.blogspot.com/2012/02/free-markets-not-free-love.htmlhttp://rortybomb.wordpress.com/2012/02/13/von-mises-makes-the-libertarian-case-against-free-love-and-implicitly-against-birth-control/ -
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Ludwig Von Mises Makes the Libertarian Case against Free Love (and Implicitly Against Birth Control) | Rortybomb:
Given that Mikes point was the connection between sexual autonomy for women and birth control, I dont think the
quote Gene cites not when its read in context actually undermines what Mike is trying to get. If you go onto
read after the passage in question the whole discussion is on 667-672 of Human Action (Volume 3 if you have the
four volume edition) Mises makes it very clear that its the father/husband whos making the decision as to whether
he wants to reproduce. And hes making that decision as a market actor, balancing his sexual desire against what the
market dictates he can support (in terms of the number of children). Mises writes (on 672): In the market economy
every individual is spontaneously intent upon not begetting children whom he could not rear without considerably
lowering his familys standard of life. Thus the growth of population beyond the optimum size as determined by the
supply of capital available and the state of technological knowledge is checked. The interest of each individual
coincide with those of all other individuals. (In addition, and tangentially, Mises refers to abortion as one of several
egregious and repulsive practices that include infanticide.) He never speaks of birth control as an advance for
womens autonomy, and he never once says its the woman who will be deciding it. Its always the man, and the
larger context in which he speaks of the issue is that it has resolved the Malthusian conundrum of population size
versus scarcity. Theres absolutely nothing to suggest that hed be in favor of women using birth control outside the
confines of marriage i.e., free love or on their own initiative or for the sake of their own desire.
01:24 PM inHistory,Moral Responsibility, Obama Administration,Philosophy: Moral, PoliticalEconomy | Permalink | Comments (10)
MITT ROMNEY RUNS TO THE LEFT OF OBAMA ON ENTITLEMENTS: ATTACKSBUDGET FOR NOT MORE SPENDING MORE
Mitt Romney on the 2013 Obama budget proposal:
This week, President Obama will release a budget that wont take any meaningful steps toward solving our
entitlement crisis. The President has failed to offer a single serious idea to save Social Security and is the only
president in modern history to cut Medicare benefits for seniors
Is there any reason that anybody who cares about public policy should vote for this for
president? Anybody? Anybody? Bueller?
09:21 AM in Highlight, Moral Responsibility,ObamaAdministration, Politics |Permalink |Comments (16)
DELONG SMACKDOWN WATCH: GENE CALLAHAN EDITION
Gene Callahan:
La Bocca della Verita: Why Oh Why Can't We Have a Better Blogosphere?: Mike Konczal claims that Ludwig von
Mises's case against "free love" is "implicitly" a case against birth control. [T]his new tool called Google, with which
one can actually find out what Mises thought about birth control, rather than just giving it your best guess. If he had
tried this Google thingie, he might have discovered that Mises was a birth control enthusiast:
It is not the practice of birth control that is new, but merely the fact that it is more frequently resorted to. Especially
new is the fact that the practice is no longer limited to the upper strata of the population, but is common to the whole
population. For it is one of the most important social effects of capitalism that it deproletarianizes all strata of society.
http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/history/http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/history/http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/moral-responsibility/http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/moral-responsibility/http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/obama-administration/http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/moral_philosophy/http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/moral_philosophy/http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/political_economy/http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/political_economy/http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2012/02/delong-smackdown-smackdown-watch-by-digby-and-company-von-mises-as-patriarch-edition.htmlhttp://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2012/02/mitt-romney-runs-to-the-left-of-obama-on-entitlements-attacks-budget-for-not-more-spending-more.htmlhttp://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2012/02/mitt-romney-runs-to-the-left-of-obama-on-entitlements-attacks-budget-for-not-more-spending-more.htmlhttp://delong.typepad.com/sdj/highlight/http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/moral-responsibility/http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/obama-administration/http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/obama-administration/http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/obama-administration/http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/politics/http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2012/02/mitt-romney-runs-to-the-left-of-obama-on-entitlements-attacks-budget-for-not-more-spending-more.htmlhttp://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2012/02/mitt-romney-runs-to-the-left-of-obama-on-entitlements-attacks-budget-for-not-more-spending-more.htmlhttp://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2012/02/delong-smackdown-watch-gene-callahan-edition.htmlhttp://gene-callahan.blogspot.com/2012/02/why-oh-why-cant-we-have-better.htmlhttp://delong.typepad.com/sdj/history/http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/moral-responsibility/http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/obama-administration/http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/moral_philosophy/http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/political_economy/http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/political_economy/http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2012/02/delong-smackdown-smackdown-watch-by-digby-and-company-von-mises-as-patriarch-edition.htmlhttp://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2012/02/mitt-romney-runs-to-the-left-of-obama-on-entitlements-attacks-budget-for-not-more-spending-more.htmlhttp://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2012/02/mitt-romney-runs-to-the-left-of-obama-on-entitlements-attacks-budget-for-not-more-spending-more.htmlhttp://delong.typepad.com/sdj/highlight/http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/moral-responsibility/http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/obama-administration/http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/obama-administration/http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/politics/http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2012/02/mitt-romney-runs-to-the-left-of-obama-on-entitlements-attacks-budget-for-not-more-spending-more.htmlhttp://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2012/02/delong-smackdown-watch-gene-callahan-edition.htmlhttp://gene-callahan.blogspot.com/2012/02/why-oh-why-cant-we-have-better.html -
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It raises the standard of living of the masses of the manual workers to such a height that they too turn into 'bourgeois'
and think and act like well-to-do burghers. Eager to preserve their standard of living for themselves and for their
children, they embark upon birth control. With the spread and progress of capitalism, birth control becomes a
universal practice. The transition to capitalism is thus accompanied by two phenomena: a decline both in fertility rates
and in mortality rates. The average duration of life is prolonged." -- Human Action
My point here is to note, once again, how the desire to bash one's political opponents tends to throw even minimal
standards of truth-seeking right out the window. It would have taken Mike about two or three minutes to find out what
Mises really thought about birth control... but why bother, when he thought he had a juicy quote with which he could
order libertarians to "man up"? And Brad DeLong, without bothering to check this himself, enthusiastically jumped on
the bandwagon.
Brad, why oh why can't we have a better blogosphere?
Touch...
I would plead, unconvincingly:
1. That having plowed my way through Socialism and Money and Credit, there is
no way in the Holy Name of the One Who Is that I will spend any time plowing
through Human Action: "time's winged chariot" you know
2. That I was thinking of Friedrich von Hayek's take on how Harriet Taylor
bewitched John Stuart Mill into socialism
3. That, historically, since before the days of Wollstonecraft the combination of
enthusiasm for birth control and enthusiasm for female sexual subordination is
something quite rare
4. That I am now eagerly looking forward to reading people from the Ludwig von
Mises institute denounce Mitch McConnell for attempting to reproletarianize
America
But I will redouble my efforts to first verify, then trust
09:13 AM in Politics |Permalink |Comments (3)
DAILY KOS: MITT'S MATH #2
A Republican delegate count:
Attorney-at-Arms:
http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/politics/http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2012/02/delong-smackdown-watch-gene-callahan-edition.htmlhttp://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2012/02/delong-smackdown-watch-gene-callahan-edition.htmlhttp://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2012/02/daily-kos-mitts-math-2.htmlhttp://delong.typepad.com/sdj/politics/http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2012/02/delong-smackdown-watch-gene-callahan-edition.htmlhttp://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2012/02/daily-kos-mitts-math-2.html -
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Daily Kos: Mitt's Math #2: Maine Update! Not Enough Delegates To Avoid Brokered Convention: Here's how it stands
right now for Mitt (based on the delegate projection most favorable to Romney): IA - 12, NH - 9, FL - 50, NV - 14, CO
- 13, MN - 6, ME - 11, Superdelegates - 17, Hunstman endorsement - 2. So far: 134.
There are only 122 winner-take-all delegates left. If Mitt gets all of those, and I'm counting the Superdelegates right,
he needs 898 out of 1797 from the other states, or, just about exactly 50%.
08:46 AM in Politics |Permalink |Comments (5)
REPUBLICANS GO ALL-IN AGAINST CONTRACEPTION WATCH
Matthew Yglesias:
Freedom of Conscience And Its Limits: Let me pull a point out of a rather long John Holbo post. Start with the
assumption that ObamaCare is repealed, in its entirety, tomorrow. The day after tomorrow Abdul Hussain, owner and
CEO of a large private firm with 5,000 employees, announces that his firm will no longer offer employees health
insurance that permits women to visit male doctors or male employees to be treated by female doctors. This is a
newsworthy event, and the day after the day after tomorrow Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebeliusand Attorney General Eric Holder both offer the opinion that this is a form of illegal discrimination. Will Mitch
McConnell and other Congressional Republicans stand up for Hussain's "freedom of conscience" in this case? Will
my conservative twitter followers?
I'm going to guess no.
Conservatives don't like the Affordable Care Act and are sympathetic on the merits to the claims of those who think
contraceptives or morally wrong, so in this particular case the principle of "freedom of conscience" seems appealing
to them. But there's actually nobody who endorses the general principle being invoked here.
08:35 AM in Moral Responsibility, Obama Administration, Politics |Permalink |Comments (2)
QUOTE OF THE DAY: FEBRUARY 13, 2012
"A lesion in one spot leaves you unable to tell a Jack Russell from a badger (not that
there is much difference), and with damage in another spot, the toaster is
unrecognizable. There are even people with certain brain lesions who specifically
cannot recognize fruit. Harvard researchers Alfonso Caramazza and Jennifer Shelton
claim that the brain has specific knowledge systems (modules) for animate and
inanimate categories that have distinct neural mechanisms. These domain-specific
knowledge systems arent actually the knowledge itself, but systems that make you
pay attention to particular aspects of situations, and by doing so, increase your
survival chances. For example, there may be quite specific detectors for certain
classes of predatory animals such as snakes and big cats. A stable set of visual clues
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/02/11/1063904/-Mitt-s-Math-2-Maine-Update-Not-Enough-Delegates-To-Avoid-Brokered-Convention?via=userhttp://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/02/11/1063904/-Mitt-s-Math-2-Maine-Update-Not-Enough-Delegates-To-Avoid-Brokered-Convention?via=userhttp://delong.typepad.com/sdj/politics/http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2012/02/daily-kos-mitts-math-2.htmlhttp://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2012/02/daily-kos-mitts-math-2.htmlhttp://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2012/02/republicans-go-all-in-against-contraception-watch.htmlhttp://www.slate.com/blogs/moneybox/2012/02/13/freedom_of_conscience_and_its_limits.htmlhttp://delong.typepad.com/sdj/moral-responsibility/http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/obama-administration/http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/politics/http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2012/02/republicans-go-all-in-against-contraception-watch.htmlhttp://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2012/02/republicans-go-all-in-against-contraception-watch.htmlhttp://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2012/02/amazon-kindle-your-highlights.htmlhttp://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/02/11/1063904/-Mitt-s-Math-2-Maine-Update-Not-Enough-Delegates-To-Avoid-Brokered-Convention?via=userhttp://delong.typepad.com/sdj/politics/http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2012/02/daily-kos-mitts-math-2.htmlhttp://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2012/02/republicans-go-all-in-against-contraception-watch.htmlhttp://www.slate.com/blogs/moneybox/2012/02/13/freedom_of_conscience_and_its_limits.htmlhttp://delong.typepad.com/sdj/moral-responsibility/http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/obama-administration/http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/politics/http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2012/02/republicans-go-all-in-against-contraception-watch.htmlhttp://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2012/02/amazon-kindle-your-highlights.html -
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may be encoded in the brain that make you pay attention to certain aspects of
biological motion, such as slithering"
--Michael S. Gazzaniga, Who's in Charge?: Free Will and the Science of the Brain
08:26 AM in Science, Science: Biology, Science: Cognitive | Permalink | Comments (5)
Older
Feed the
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Mitt Romney Runs to the Left of Obama on Entitlements: Attacks Budget for
Not More Spending More
Reading Fallows's "Obama, Explained"
Businessweek Opinions-of-Shape-of-Earth-Differ Journamalism: PaulKrugman Edition
Tracking the Forward March of Human Liberty...
Macroeconomics: Somehow the Bullshit Artists Have Won--A Question forGavyn Davies Department
Which Romney Is Romney? Guest Lecture: The Macroeconomics of Government Budgeting
On the Fed's Policy of Quantitative Easing Coupled with Promises Not to LetPrices Recover Any of the Ground Relative to Trend They Lost in theRecession...
Hysteresis and the American Unemployment Problem
Thinking Aloud About Fiscal Policy in a Depressed Economy...
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R e c e n t P o s t s
Hoisted from the Archives: Unleash Chiang Kai-Shek!!
Liveblogging World War II: February 14, 1942
Quote of the Day: February 14, 2012
No Excuse for Anybody Interested in Good Policy to Vote for Mitt Romney
Disappointed: Flying Down the California Coast at Dawn Can Be Glorious...
Paul Krugman: Cameron and the Confidence Fairy: An Update
Paul Krugman Is Much More Polite to John Cochrane and John Taylor thanEconomics of Contempt Is
Economics of Contempt Is Very Unhappy This Morning...
Econ 1: Spring 2012: U.C. Berkeley: Sample Exam--Midterm 1
DeLong Smackdown Smackdown Watch by Digby and Company: Von Mises asPatriarch Edition
FEATURED: The 70% Solution: December 1, 2011: Project Syndicate
Via a circuitous Internet chain Paul Krugman of Princeton Universityquoting Mark Thoma of the University of Oregon reading the Journal ofEconomic Perspectives I got a copy of an article written by EmmanuelSaez, whose office is 50 feet from mine, on the same corridor, and theNobel laureate economist Peter Diamond. Saez and Diamond argue that theright marginal tax rate for North Atlantic societies to impose on their richestcitizens is 70%.
It is an arresting assertion, given the tax-cut mania that has prevailed inthese societies for the past 30 years, but Diamond and Saezs logic is clear.The superrich command and control so many resources that they are
effectively satiated: increasing or decreasing how much wealth they havehas no effect on their happiness. So, no matter how large a weight we placeon their happiness relative to the happiness of others whether we regardthem as praiseworthy captains of industry who merit their high positions, oras parasitic thieves we simply cannot do anything to affect it by raising orlowering their tax rates.
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The unavoidable implication of this argument is that when we calculatewhat the tax rate for the superrich will be, we should not consider theeffect of changing their tax rate on their happiness, for we know that it iszero. Rather, the key question must be the effect of changing their tax rateon the well-being of the rest of us.
From this simple chain of logic follows the conclusion that we have a moralobligation to tax our superrich at the peak of the Laffer Curve: to tax themso heavily that we raise the most possible money from them to the pointbeyond which their diversion of energy and enterprise into tax avoidanceand sheltering would mean that any extra taxes would not raise but reducerevenue.
The utilitarian economic logic is clear. Yet more than half of us are likely to
reject the conclusion reached by Diamond and Saez. We feel that there issomething wrong with taxing our superrich until the pips squeak so muchthat further taxation reduces the number of pips. And we feel this for tworeasons, both of them set out more than two centuries ago by Adam Smith not in his most famous work, The Wealth of Nations, but in his far lessdiscussed book The Theory of Moral Sentiments.
The first reason applies to the idle rich. According to Smith:
"A stranger to human nature, who saw the indifference of men about the
misery of their inferiors, and the regret and indignation which they feel forthe misfortunes and sufferings of those above them, would be apt toimagine, that pain must be more agonizing, and the convulsions of deathmore terrible to persons of higher rank, than to those of meaner stations..."
We feel this, Smith believes, because we naturally sympathize with others(if he were writing today, he would surely invoke mirror neurons). And themore pleasant our thoughts about individuals or groups are, the more wetend to sympathize with them. The fact that the lifestyles of the rich andfamous seem almost the abstract idea of a perfect and happy state leads
us to pitythat anything should spoil and corrupt so agreeable a situation!We could even wish them immortal...
The second reason applies to the hard-working rich, the type of person who:
"devotes himself forever to the pursuit of wealth and greatness....With themost unrelenting industry he labors night and day....serves those whom he
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hates, and is obsequious to those whom he despises....[I]n the last dregs oflife, his body wasted with toil and diseases, his mind galled and ruffled bythe memory of a thousand injuries and disappointments....he begins at lastto find that wealth and greatness are mere trinkets of frivolous utility....Power and riches....keep off the summer shower, not the winter storm, butleave him always as much, and sometimes more exposed than before, toanxiety, to fear, and to sorrow; to diseases, to danger, and to death...
In short, on the one hand, we dont wish to disrupt the perfect felicity ofthe lifestyles of the rich and famous; on the other hand, we dont wish toadd to the burdens of those who have spent their most precious possession their time and energy pursuing baubles. These two arguments are notconsistent, but that does not matter. They both have a purchase on ourthinking.
Unlike todays public-finance economists, Smith understood that we are notrational utilitarian calculators. Indeed, that is why we have collectivelydone a very bad job so far in dealing with the enormous rise in inequalitybetween the industrial middle class and the plutocratic superrich that wehave witnessed in the last generation.
A r c h i v e s
February 2012
January 2012
December 2011
November 2011
October 2011
September 2011
August 2011 July 2011
June 2011
May 2011
More...
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R e f e r e n c e S e c t i o n
J. Bradford DeLong's Academic CV
Brad DeLong's Short Biography
Macroeconomic Teaching Notes
Wherefore "Shrillblog"?
Policies--Comments and Otherwise
Is Regulatory Uncertainty a Major Impediment to Job Growth?
F r o m B r a d D e L o n g
J. Bradford DeLong, Professor of Economics at U.C Berkeley, a Research
Associate of the NBER, a Visiting Scholar at the Federal Reserve Bank of SanFrancisco, and Chair of Berkeley's Political Economy major.
Among his best works are: "Is Increased Price FlexibilityStabilizing?""Productivity Growth, Convergence, and Welfare," "Noise TraderRisk in Financial Markets,""Equipment Investment and EconomicGrowth,""Princes and Merchants: European City Growth Before the IndustrialRevolution,""Why Does the Stock Market Fluctuate?""Keynesianism,Pennsylvania-Avenue Style,""America's Peacetime Inflation: The
1970s,""American Fiscal Policy in the Shadow of the GreatDepression,""Review of Robert Skidelsky (2000),John MaynardKeynes, volume 3,Fighting for Britain,""Between Meltdown and MoralHazard: Clinton Administration International Monetary and FinancialPolicy,""Productivity Growth in the 2000s," "Asset Returns and EconomicGrowth."
Leigh Speakers' Bureau:
The Eighteen-Year-Old is going to college next year, which means that Ineed to think about making more money. (The idea that one might write
checks to rather than receive checks from universities is now strange tome.) So I have signed up with the Leigh Speakers' Bureau which also handles,among many others: Chris Anderson; Suzanne Berger; Michael Boskin;Kenneth Courtis; Clive Crook; Bill Emmott; Robert H. Frank; WilliamGoetzmann; Douglas J. Holtz-Eakin; Paul Krugman; Bill McKibben; PaulRomer; Jeffrey Sachs; Robert Shiller;James Surowiecki; Martin Wolf; AdrianWooldridge.
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