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Weather Research and Forecasting Advances for the
2002 Olympic Winter Games
W. James Steenburgh
Department of Meteorology andNOAA Cooperative Institute for Regional
PredictionUniversity of Utah
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Acknowledgments
Tom Potter. CIRP Director/SLOC Weather Coordinator John Horel, Professor Steven Lazarus. Assistant Research Professor Daryl Onton. Postdoctoral Fellow Carol Ciliberti, Judy Pechmann, Mike Splitt, Bryan White.
Research Associates Grad & Undergrad Students Salt Lake City NWSFO staff and Western Region SSD personnel NWS/KSL Olympic Weather Support forecast team Dan Judd, Judd Communications MesoWest data providers and collaborators FSL developers of LDAD & FX-Net
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Northern Utah topography
Great
Salt
LakeGreat Salt Lake
Desert
Stansbury Mts Oquirrh Mts
Wasatch R
ange
SLC
Olympic Region50 km
1500
275030003250
200022502500
1750
Elevation (m)
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The 2002 Olympic region
Snowbasin Downhill, Combined, Super-G
Utah Olympic ParkBobsled, Luge, Skeleton,
Ski Jumping, Nordic Combined
Park CityAlpine GS, Snowboard GS
Snowboard Half Pipe
Deer ValleyAlpine Slalom, Aerials, Moguls
Soldier Hollow: Cross Country, Biathlon, Nordic Combined
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Weather affects the Olympics
Competition delays & postponements Transportation (ground and air) Spectator safety & comfort Medical emergency response Security Venue engineering Environmental quality/air pollution Broadcasting/Ceremonies/
Look of the Games/Cultural Events
SLOC
UDOT
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Specific weather concerns
Heavy snowfall produced by fronts, topography, and the “dreaded lake effect”
Wasatch Mts average 850-1300 cm (300-520”) of snow annually Alta averages 49 days per year with at least 12.5 cm of snowfall
Annual SWE (cm, colorfill) and snowfall (annotated)
5 13 20 25 30 40 50 75 100 150 200 250
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Specific weather concerns
High winds at valley and mountain locations• Gap, downslope, or ridge-top winds; other terrain-induced
flows
Areas where strong ridge-top winds are a concern
Gap winds
Downslope winds
Ski Jump venue (sensitive to moderate winds and gusts)
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Specific weather concerns
Valley inversions/cold pools• Fog (may be supercooled), poor visibility and air quality (PM-10)
Good Bad Ugly
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Specific weather concerns
Extreme warm or cold temperatures Lightning Avalanches
Westwide Avalanche Network
B. Tremper
D. Judd
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Past weather during the Olympic Period
2001•7. Icy roads led to numerous accidents in the Salt Lake Valley
2000•7. Record high temp (58F) at Heber. Little snow at X-C venue
1999•9-10. Hurricane force winds. Semis blown over on I-80.
1994• 10-11. Severe weather with lightning. Park City schools closed.•22. Snowstorm during commute- over 100 accidents. Airport runways closed
1993•18-21. Blizzard conditions. 50 car pileup near Point of the Mountain
1986•12-13. 2 feet of snow at Parley’s Summit with blizzard conditions
•14-18. Warm temperatures, warm heavy rains in valleys; heavy snow on slopes. Record high minimum temp (51F) at SLC
•19. 119 mph gust at Park City ski area. Morgan County declared a disaster area as a result of flooding
•24 Avalanches close Little Cottonwood
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Recent Olympic weather forecasting advances
Atmospheric monitoring– Venue observations
– Regional weather network
Computer modeling– Integration of weather observations
– “High-resolution” forecasts
– Point-specific venue forecasts
Basic research– Lake-effect snowstorms
– Mountain snowfall
– Valley inversions/cold pools
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Olympic venue observing network
Snowbasin Downhill, Combined, Super-G
Utah Olympic ParkBobsled, Luge, Skeleton,
Ski Jumping, Nordic Combined
Park CityAlpine GS, Snowboard GS
Snowboard Half Pipe
Deer ValleyAlpine Slalom, Aerials, Moguls
Soldier Hollow: Cross Country, Biathlon, Nordic Combined
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Ownd by Forest Service Snowbasin, NOAA, U of Utah Ogden Peak (OGP) Wildcat (SWI) Middle Bowl (SNI) Strawberry Base (SB1) Strawberry Top (SB2) Along venue courses
– Mt Allen (SBB-top of men’s DH)– John Paul (SBW – mid course)– Shooting Star (SSS – mid course)– Base (SBE – finish/stadium)
SB1
SB2
SNI
SWI
OGP
SSS
SBE
SBW
SBB
(Photo: Mike Powell/ALLSPORT)
Venue observations at Snowbasin
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Venue weather web interface
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Collects and integrates observations from 2900 stations and over 70 organizations
Data processed with graphical products generated every 15 minutes
Olympic region and western US observing network (MesoWest)
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278 stations in northern Utah Olympic region
Improves analysis and forecasting of regional and local weather systems
Olympic region and western US observing network (MesoWest)
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Data assimilation and analysis
Surface temperature and wind flow
Weather conditions along I-80
Parley’s Canyon
SLC
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High resolution computer modeling
3x daily 36-h forecasts at 4-km grid spacing detail future local weather conditions
36 km
12 km
4 km
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Point-specific forecasts for 32 Venue and corridor locations
03/18 04/0604/00 04/12 05/0004/18
Combine high-resolution modeling and statistical techniques
Forecasts of temperature, relative humidity, wind, and precipitation every hour
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Basic Research
Intermountain Precipitation Experiments (IPEX)
• Wasatch Mountain Winter Storms
Lake-effect snowstorms• Improved knowledge and
prediction
Vertical Transport and Mixing Program (VTMX)
• Meteorological conditions that affect air quality in the Salt Lake Valley
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Sample of findings
Causes of lake-effect snowbands Structure of Wasatch Mountain winter storms
Snowbasin
Weber Canyon
Ogden Canyon
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Weather Forecasting for the OlympicsA Team Effort
University of UtahForecast Support
KSL Forecast TeamVenue Forecasting
National Weather ServicePublic Forecasts/Warnings
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What will be the legacy after the Olympics?
Improved weather monitoring and forecasting tools will continue to be used by the National Weather Service and other meteorolgists during all seasons
Improved knowledge of Intermountain weather
The Olympic experience will identify areas where observations, computer models, or understanding is needed to improve forecasting in the future
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Accessing weather data, forecasts, and information
http://www.met.utah.edu/olympicshttp://www.saltlake2002.com