Water Management & Climate Change in the Okanagan Region,
Canada: Climate Scenarios & Hydrologic Modeling
Stewart Cohen, Adaptation & Impacts Research Group, Environment Canada
Wendy Merritt & Younes Alila, Department of Forest Resources Management, UBC
Mark Barton & Bill Taylor, Pacific & Yukon Region, Environment Canada
Presented at Scenarios Workshop, University of WashingtonSeattle, April 30, 2003
Water Management & Climate Change in the Okanagan—Study Framework, 2002-
04
Okanagan Climate Change Scenario:Implications for Water Management
Hydrology Model SelectionAdvantages Constraints
DHSVM Fully distributed, explicitly represents
topography vegetation processes
Maximum recommended pixel size of 30m 30m
Detailed spatial and temporal inputs
UBC Watershed Model
Can be applied to individual tributaries of Okanagan Lake
Minimal input requirements
Semi-distributed conceptual model
simplistic representation of vegetation processes, and topography
VIC Routinely linked with Global Climate Change models
applications include the Columbia Basin, of which the Okanagan River is a tributary
Minimum recommended pixel size of 1/8th degree
this resolution is too coarse to adequately distinguish between many of the tributaries entering Okanagan Lake
ID Station Elev(m)
Record
1 1120633
Bankier Chain Lake 1020 74-88
2 1123360
Hedley 517 70-01
3 1123750
Joe Rich Creek 875 70-93
4 1123970
Kelowna A 430 68-01
5 1123984
Kelowna East 491 80-97
6 1123992
Kelowna PC Burnetts 350 70-92
7 1124112
Keremeos 2 435 79-94
8 1124980
McCullogh 1250 87-96
9 1125223
Mt Kobau Observatory 1862 66-80
10 1125865
Osoyoos West 297 70-01
11 1126077
Peachland Brenda Mines 1520 70-90
12 1126150
Penticton A 354 60-01
13 1127800
Summerland CDA 455 60-95
14 1128551
Vernon 556 71-94
15 1128580
Vernon CR 482 70-97
16 1128958
Winfield 503 74-01
17 1126784
Falkland Spanish Lake 823 59-81
18 1126785
Fa1kland Salmon Valley 635 75-84
Winter Season (DJF) 2050, Lat=50o Lon=120o
0
5
10
15
20
25
0 1 2 3 4 5
Mean Temperature Change (oC)
Pre
cipi
tatio
n C
hang
e (%
)
Summer Season (JJA) 2050, Lat=50o Lon=120o
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
0 1 2 3 4 5
Mean Temperature Change (oC)
Pre
cipi
tatio
n C
hang
e (%
)
Climate Change Scenarios for 50 °N,
120°W
CGCM2 A21
CGCM2 B21
CSIROMk2 A21
CSIROMk2 B21
HadCM3 A22
HadCM3 B22
Legend
Whiteman Ck - CGCM2 A2
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
1-Jan 1-Mar 1-May 1-Jul 1-Sep 1-Nov
Sim
ula
ted
Dis
char
ge (
cum
ecs)
base90 s20ca2 s50ca2 s80ca2
Whiteman Ck - CGCM2 B2
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
1-Jan 1-Mar 1-May 1-Jul 1-Sep 1-Nov
Sim
ula
ted
Dis
char
ge (
cum
ecs)
base90 s20cb2 s50cb2 s80cb2
Whiteman Ck - CSIRO A2
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
1-Jan 1-Mar 1-May 1-Jul 1-Sep 1-Nov
Sim
ulat
ed D
isch
arge
(cum
ecs)
base90 s20sa2 s50sa2 s80sa2
Whiteman Ck - CSIRO B2
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
1-Jan 1-Mar 1-May 1-Jul 1-Sep 1-Nov
Sim
ulat
ed D
isch
arge
(cum
ecs)
base90 s20sb2 s50sb2 s80sb2
Whiteman Ck - HADLEY A2
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
1-Jan 1-Mar 1-May 1-Jul 1-Sep 1-Nov
Sim
ulat
ed D
isch
arge
(cum
ecs)
base90 s20ha2 s50ha2 s80ha2
Whiteman Ck - HADLEY B2
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
1-Jan 1-Mar 1-May 1-Jul 1-Sep 1-Nov
Sim
ula
ted
Dis
char
ge (
cum
ecs)
base90 s20hb2 s50hb2 s80hb2
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
1-Jan 1-Mar 30-Apr 29-Jun 28-Aug 27-Oct 26-Dec
Ave
rag
e D
aily
Dis
char
ge
(cm
s)
Qbase Q2020 Q2050 Q2080
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1-Jan 1-Mar 30-Apr 29-Jun 28-Aug 27-Oct 26-Dec
Ave
rag
e D
aily
Sn
ow
Mel
t (m
m) Mbase M2020 M2050 M2080
Whiteman Ck: CSIRO A2
Vaseaux Ck
65.32%
7.49%
8.52%
8.43%
7.71%
0.02%
0.00%
0.32%
0.00%0.42%
0.00%
1.77%
Lake area
Young forest
Old forest
Recently logged
Selectively logged
Agriculture
Recreation activities
Barren surfaces
Urban
Rangelands
Mining
Wetlands
Vaseaux Ck (above Dutton Ck) - CGCM2 A2
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1-Jan 1-Mar 1-May 1-Jul 1-Sep 1-Nov
Sim
ula
ted
Dis
char
ge (
cum
ecs)
base90 s20ca2 s50ca2 s80ca2
Vaseaux Ck (above Dutton Ck) - CGCM2 B2
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1-Jan 1-Mar 1-May 1-Jul 1-Sep 1-Nov
Sim
ula
ted
Dis
char
ge (
cum
ecs)
base90 s20cb2 s50cb2 s80cb2
Vaseaux Ck (above Dutton Ck) - CSIRO A2
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1-Jan 1-Mar 1-May 1-Jul 1-Sep 1-Nov
Sim
ulat
ed D
isch
arge
(cum
ecs)
base90 s20sa2 s50sa2 s80sa2
Vaseaux Ck (above Dutton Ck) - CSIRO B2
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1-Jan 1-Mar 1-May 1-Jul 1-Sep 1-Nov
Sim
ulat
ed D
isch
arge
(cum
ecs)
base90 s20sb2 s50sb2 s80sb2
Vaseaux Ck (above Dutton Ck) - HADLEY A2
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1-Jan 1-Mar 1-May 1-Jul 1-Sep 1-Nov
Sim
ulat
ed D
isch
arge
(cum
ecs)
base90 s20ha2 s50ha2 s80ha2
Vaseaux Ck (above Dutton Ck) - HADLEY B2
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1-Jan 1-Mar 1-May 1-Jul 1-Sep 1-Nov
Sim
ulat
ed D
isch
arge
(cum
ecs)
base90 s20hb2 s50hb2 s80hb2
Stakeholder views on adaptationEngaging dialogue to identify adaptation strategies to scenarios of streamflow reductions during the growing season in the Okanagan Basin
Cohen & Kulkarni (2001), & Interim Report of 2002-04 Study on UBC Web site: http://www.sdri.ubc.ca/publications
Preferred adaptation options among the stakeholders?Structural (e.g. building upland dams) and social measures (e.g., buy out water licenses) preferred over institutional measures
Some implications of their choices?Stakeholders identified the high cost of dams, associated impacts on fisheries, and difficulties in restricting development as possible implications of their adaptation choices.
adaptation dialogue is just beginning...