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VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTIVE CAPACITY OF TREES IN THE BOSTON REGIONLeslie Brandt, PhDClimate Change Specialist
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URBAN TREES ARE VULNERABLE TO… Drought Flooding
Storms Disease
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WHAT IS VULNERABILITY?
Swanston et al. 2016
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FUTURE IMPACTS: NATIVE TREES
http://www.fs.fed.us/nrs/atlas/
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MODELS AND EMISSIONS SCENARIOS
Least Projected Change
Most Projected Change
PCMLow emissions (B1)
GFDLHigh emissions (A1FI)
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HABITAT SUITABILITY LOSS-WHITE PINE
Current habitat
future habitat high emissions
future habitat low emissions
http://www.fs.fed.us/nrs/atlas/
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BIGGEST LOSERS
Balsam fir
Chokecherry
Aspen
Red spruce
Birch
Red pine
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RETAINS HABITAT- SUGAR MAPLE
Current habitat
future habitat high emissions
future habitat low emissions
http://www.fs.fed.us/nrs/atlas/
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HOLDING STEADY
Atlantic white-cedar American beech
American holly Pitch pine
Black cherry
Swamp chestnut oak
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GAINS HABITAT- SHAGBARK HICKORY
Current habitat
future habitat high emissions
future habitat low emissions
http://www.fs.fed.us/nrs/atlas/
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BIG GAINERS
Silver maple American hornbeam Mockernut hickory
Flowering dogwood Eastern redcedar White oak
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NEW HABITAT- SOURWOOD
Current habitat
future habitat high emissions
future habitat low emissions
http://www.fs.fed.us/nrs/atlas/
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NEW SPECIES TO TRY
Pawpaw Eastern redbud
Tulip tree Sweetgum
Baldcypress
Persimmon
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NON-NATIVES, INVASIVES, CULTIVARS?
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CURRENT USDA HARDINESS ZONES
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HARDINESS ZONE PROJECTIONSLow emissions High emissions
7b-8a
7b-8b
7b-8b
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SPECIES THAT COULD BENEFIT FROMHARDINESS ZONE SHIFTS
Dawn redwood Kwanzan cherry
Weeping willow Chinese elm
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CURRENT AHS HEAT ZONES
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HEAT ZONE PROJECTIONSLow Emissions High Emissions
4-5
5-7
5-8
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SPECIES THAT COULD POTENTIALLY BENEGATIVELY AFFECTED BY HEAT ZONE SHIFTS
Norway maple Amur maackia
Japanese tree lilac Littleleaf linden
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VULNERABILITY
Swanston et al. 2016
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ADAPTIVE CAPACITY
the ability of a system to accommodate or cope with potential climate change impacts with minimal disruption.
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ADAPTIVE CAPACITY FACTORS
Disturbance Factors
Biological Factors
Based on Matthews et al. 2011
-3 30
Pest, disease, fire, drought, flood, pollution, heat, herbivory, invasive species, salt resistance
Shade tolerance, edaphic specificity, propagation, pruning needed, establishment, rooting conditions
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2 SEPARATE SCORES
Planted Naturally-Occurring
Dispersal ability, regeneration capacityIncludes nursery propagation, restricted rooting conditions, maintenance, planting site
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SPECIES WITH HIGH ADAPTIVE CAPACITY Not generally susceptible to pests, disease that lead to
mortality/reduced growth Drought-tolerant Flood-tolerant Not susceptible to breakage/mortality from wind and/or ice Tolerates a wide range of temperatures Tolerates urban conditions like salt, pollutions, restricted
rooting conditions Shade-tolerant Can be planted on a range of sites, soils Easily propagated and established once planted
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HIGH ADAPTIVE CAPACITY: KENTUCKYCOFFEETREE
• No major pest/disease issues
• Adaptable to a range of soils, climates
• Urban-tolerant• Low maintenance • Widely available
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LOW ADAPTIVE CAPACITY: PAPERBARK MAPLE
Susceptible to Asian longhorned beetle Drought-intolerant Susceptible to leaf
scorch Difficult to propagate
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VULNERABILITY
Swanston et al. 2016
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OVERALL VULNERABILITY
Most Vulnerable
Red pine Pitch pine Eastern white pine Bigtooth aspen Quaking aspen Canadian hemlock
Least Vulnerable
Eastern redcedar Blackgum/Black tupelo Mockernut hickory Eastern hophornbeam/ironwood American Hornbeam Serviceberry species Yellowwood Kousa Dogwood Ginkgo Kentucky Coffeetree Persian Ironwood Yoshino Cherry Snowgoose Cherry Okame Cherry Japanese zelkova
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SUMMARY Vulnerability=Impacts + adaptive capacity We expect a decrease in suitability for northern trees and an
increase for southern trees Hardiness zones may shift by 1 to 2 full zones by the end of
the century. Heat zones may shift by 1-4 zones, meaning up to four
months each year may be above 86 degrees F Trees vary in their capacity to adapt-consider multiple factors Overall, more northern trees that are susceptible to pests,
disease, and disturbances will be the most vulnerable The least vulnerable trees are those that can tolerate a range
of environmental conditions and are at the center or north end of their range here.