![Page 1: V ereniging van O nroerend G oed O nderzoekers N ederland](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022062410/56815841550346895dc59999/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Welcome
Residential market for investorsRental market saves distressed owner occupier market?
March 22nd 2013
Vereniging van Onroerend Goed Onderzoekers Nederland
![Page 2: V ereniging van O nroerend G oed O nderzoekers N ederland](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022062410/56815841550346895dc59999/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
2. Residential rental market
Rental market saves distressed owner occupier market?
1. Residential market in general2. Rental market (users)3. Residential investment market4. Residential investors5. Rental market saves owner occupier market?
![Page 3: V ereniging van O nroerend G oed O nderzoekers N ederland](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022062410/56815841550346895dc59999/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
1. Residential market
Source: NVM
![Page 4: V ereniging van O nroerend G oed O nderzoekers N ederland](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022062410/56815841550346895dc59999/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
1. Residential market
Source: CBS
![Page 5: V ereniging van O nroerend G oed O nderzoekers N ederland](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022062410/56815841550346895dc59999/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
1. Residential market
Why weak housing market for owner occupiers?
• Mortgage rules more strict• Lack of confidence among consumers• Difficulties to sell existing house
![Page 6: V ereniging van O nroerend G oed O nderzoekers N ederland](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022062410/56815841550346895dc59999/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
2. Residential rental market
![Page 7: V ereniging van O nroerend G oed O nderzoekers N ederland](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022062410/56815841550346895dc59999/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
2. Residential rental market
Source: Google
![Page 8: V ereniging van O nroerend G oed O nderzoekers N ederland](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022062410/56815841550346895dc59999/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
2. Residential rental market
Marketing period:• 80 units rent: 2 weeks• 40 units sale: 2 in a half year
![Page 9: V ereniging van O nroerend G oed O nderzoekers N ederland](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022062410/56815841550346895dc59999/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
2. Residential rental market
Why strong residential rental market?
• Mortgage rules more strict (pay back in 30 years)• People do not want to enter a declining market• Young people prefer more flexibility• Growing group elderly like comfort and care
![Page 10: V ereniging van O nroerend G oed O nderzoekers N ederland](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022062410/56815841550346895dc59999/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
3. Residential Investment market
Investment market is bad
Source: DTZ Zadelhoff
![Page 11: V ereniging van O nroerend G oed O nderzoekers N ederland](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022062410/56815841550346895dc59999/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
3. Residential Investment market
Source: DTZ Zadelhoff
![Page 12: V ereniging van O nroerend G oed O nderzoekers N ederland](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022062410/56815841550346895dc59999/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
3. Residential Investment market
Development of Yields
![Page 13: V ereniging van O nroerend G oed O nderzoekers N ederland](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022062410/56815841550346895dc59999/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
3. Residential Investment Market
Why strong residential investment market?
• Shares are uncertain• Bonds have very low yield• Offices and warehouse have oversupply• Retail suffers from internet sales
![Page 14: V ereniging van O nroerend G oed O nderzoekers N ederland](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022062410/56815841550346895dc59999/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
4. Residential Investors
Source: CBS
![Page 15: V ereniging van O nroerend G oed O nderzoekers N ederland](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022062410/56815841550346895dc59999/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
4. Residential Investors
Institutional Investors ++• Lots of money available in pensiun and insurance funds• Preference for low risk investments (like residential)• No need for debt finance• Relatively cheap to develop new homes -/-• Difficulties in selling old stock, because of oversupply• Critical on location, mainly Randstad, or even Amsterdam• Still high landprices slow down new developments
![Page 16: V ereniging van O nroerend G oed O nderzoekers N ederland](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022062410/56815841550346895dc59999/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
4. Residential Investors
Where does the investment money go?
![Page 17: V ereniging van O nroerend G oed O nderzoekers N ederland](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022062410/56815841550346895dc59999/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
4. Residential Investors
Private investors ++Residential still interesting investment opportunityLack of alternative investments -/-Individual sale of housing (“uitponden”) is criticalDifficulties in getting bank finance
![Page 18: V ereniging van O nroerend G oed O nderzoekers N ederland](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022062410/56815841550346895dc59999/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
4. Residential Investors
Housing corporations ++More rental increase within contracts (“scheefhuur toeslag”)Veto to sell houses to investors ended -/-Tax on social housing (“Verhuurders heffing”)Vestia paymentsCorporate taxes (since 2008)Old stockLess individual housing sales Relatively, inefficient and expensive organisations
![Page 19: V ereniging van O nroerend G oed O nderzoekers N ederland](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022062410/56815841550346895dc59999/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
5. Rental market saves owner occupier market?
Landprices too high • Price rented home approx. 80 – 90% of owner occupier home• Municipalities need to decrease landprices 2 times
Lower house prices Shift to “cheaper” rental market
• Municipalities cannot afford lower landprices
Shortage of money
• Financial problems in social housing sector• Institutional sector rather small • Foreign investors require higher yields
![Page 20: V ereniging van O nroerend G oed O nderzoekers N ederland](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022062410/56815841550346895dc59999/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
6. Conclusions
Expectations existing rental housing • Rising supply by social housing stock that will come onto the market.• Yields of residential go up further (‘uitpond premium” disappears).• Entrance of big international investors
Expectations new rental housing
• Rising demand by demographic developments• Decline of difference between rental and owner occupier prices• “Scheefhuur” toeslag will lead to growing demand