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Using Analytics to Generate Revenue and Improve Decision MakingCSMFO Annual ConferenceMarch 2016
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What is analytics? 2
The discovery and communication of meaningful
patterns in data.
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Where are we headed today? 3
Agenda
Past, Present & Predictive Analytics
Tales of Success
Community Engagement & Transparency
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But first… 4
Some Cautions
Confirm rights to see, use or share data
Confirm rights to use or share images
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And remember… 5
Encouragement
Have fun with it!
Find something new every day!
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Process Flow 6
Recommend multi-disciplinary team
Look for Patterns
• Share
• Act
Select Analytical Platform
• Excel
• Platform
Identify Data Sources
• Internal
• External
Find Knowledge
Base
• Internal
• External
Evaluate Organization
• Objectives
• Resources
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Process Flow 7
A great opportunity for staff development
Look for Patterns
• Share
• Act
Select Analytical Platform
• Excel
• Platform
Identify Data Sources
• Internal
• External
Find Knowledge
Base
• Internal
• External
Evaluate Organization
• Objectives
• Resources
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Process Flow 8
Tax revenues, website, demographics, etc.
Look for Patterns
• Share
• Act
Select Analytical Platform
• Excel
• Platform
Identify Data Sources
• Internal
• External
Find Knowledge
Base
• Internal
• External
Evaluate Organization
• Objectives
• Resources
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Process Flow 9
Look for Patterns
• Share
• Act
Select Analytical Platform
• Excel
• Platform
Identify Data Sources
• Internal
• External
Find Knowledge
Base
• Internal
• External
Evaluate Organization
• Objectives
• Resources
Excel for starters or data visualization platform for sophistication
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Process Flow 10
Look for Patterns
• Share
• Act
Select Analytical Platform
• Excel
• Platform
Identify Data Sources
• Internal
• External
Find Knowledge
Base
• Internal
• External
Evaluate Organization
• Objectives
• Resources
Share what you learn. Act with confidence.
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Platform Benefits 11
Excel
Statistical Functions
Charting
Scenarios
Process Control Charts
Capture & Leakage Analysis
Data Visualization Platform
Interactivity & Visualizations
Big Data Integration
Cluster & Factor Analysis
Mapping
Predictive Analytics
Leads to better economic development plans and reduces expenditure waste
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Excel Examples: Process Control Chart 12
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
Data
Lower
Upper
Average
Recognizing changes and fundamental shifts
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Excel Examples: Capture & Leakage Analysis 13
Actual Potential Capture / (Leakage) Rate
Transportation $2,139,985 $1,328,393 $811,592 161%
Auto Parts/Repair $341,543 $139,045 $202,498 246%
Auto Supply Stores $205,123 $57,266 $147,857 358%
Vehicle Repair $134,127 $62,631 $71,496 214%
Vehicle Parts Mfg $2,293 $19,148 ($16,855) 12%
Auto Sales - New $746,216 $668,677 $77,539 112%
Auto Sales - Used $62,219 $52,906 $9,313 118%
Service Stations $355,674 $416,226 ($60,552) 85%
Misc. Vehicle Sales $634,333 $51,539 $582,795 1231%
Trailer & Supply $592,975 $14,562 $578,413 4072%
Boat/Motorcycle $41,358 $18,220 $23,138 227%
Aircraft & Supply $0 $2,723 ($2,723) 0%
Transportation Eqp $0 $16,033 ($16,033) 0%
Combining the right internal and external databases to identify economic needs.
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Excel Examples: Capture & Leakage Analysis 14
Building community profiles to match against expanding business list
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Data Visualization: Factor Analysis 15
Visualize multi-variable relationships among datasets to recognize patterns and to make policy decisions.
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Predictive Analytics 16
Champion-Challenger Model
Simple Naive
Seasonal Naive
Exponential Smooth
ARIMA
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Predictive Analytics: Putting it together 17
Layers
By Category
By Segment
By Type
In Total
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So, what? 18
Data AnalyticsRevenue Action Plan
Using data to recognize opportunities to Attract, Retain and Expand revenues.
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City of Santa Fe Springs 19
Approximately nine square miles, the City of Santa Fe Springs is located at the intersection of I-5 and I-605 in southeast Los Angeles County.
Santa Fe Springs
Whittier
Norwalk
Downey
Pico Rivera
La Mirada
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City of Santa Fe Springs 20
$23.7$21.1
$20.3
$21.2
$22.3
$25.6
$26.4
$25.7
$23.7 $19.2
$20.3
$22.9
$23.7
$26.1
$26.4
$0
$10
$20
$30
'01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15
Mill
ions o
f D
olla
rs
Fiscal Year ending June 30th
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City of Santa Fe Springs 21
Sales Tax
Nearly Half of General Fund Revenues
Volatility
Demographics
Trends and Lags
Effect of Redevelopment Dissolution
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City of Santa Fe Springs 22
Impact
Land Use/Zoning
Business & Resident Outreach
The Chamber & LAEDC
Policies & Negotiations
Revenue Diversification
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Public Engagement 23
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Public Engagement Defined 24
Decide
Discuss
Ask
Tell
Collaborative Decision-MakingFormal Group Given AuthorityGenerates Clear Next Steps
Interactive Focus Groups or ForumsSmaller Groups (Fishbowl, World Café)Two-Way Exchange
Soliciting Public FeedbackSurveys (in-person or online)Public Officials Silent/One-Way
InformingFormatted for Public ConsumptionLimited Influence/One-Way
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Transparency• Mitigate cynicism
• Meet Requirements
Innovation• New Ideas
• Prioritization
Stewardship
• Improved Performance
• Civic Capital
Why Public Engagement? 25
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“Cities around the country have been employing various methods to increase transparency in their day-to-day practices for years now. From
broad engines of information like city websites to more focused tools that display a city’s expenditures….”, - National League of Cities and the Public Technology Institute
Public Engagement Implemented 26
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“The rapid emergence of the ‘participative web’ is reflected in the exponential proliferation of wikis, blogs….The tools and practices of the participative web can help improve policy making and
service delivery by enriching government interactions with external stakeholders and enhancing internal knowledge management.” - Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development,
Studies on Public Engagement
Public Engagement – Ask/Discuss 27
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Participatory Based Budgeting 28
City ExampleVallejo, CA Established the first citywide PB in the U.S., through a City Council
Resolution. Through PB, the community decides how to spend $2.4 million of revenue from the city’s Measure B Sales Tax. Vallejo residents propose spending ideas, develop project proposals, and vote on which to fund, then the list of winning projects is submitted to City Council for approval.
Boston, MA The first youth PB initiative in the U.S., was launched in January 2014 as an initiative of the Mayor’s office. The process lets the city’s youth ages 12-25 decide how to spend $1 million of the capital budget.
San Francisco, CA San Francisco’s District 3 introduced a pilot PB program in 2013, empowering residents to directly decide how to spend $100,000 of discretionary funding for capital projects, programs and activities. The pilot program has since expanded to three districts.