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U.S., Florida & Orange County Economic Update
2018 Economic Summit
Orlando, FL January 19th, 2018
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Year One Trump Administration
How are the policies of the Trump administration impacting the U.S. economic outlook? Is Trump “lifting us up where
we belong?”
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Year One Trump Administration
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Year One Trump Administration
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• Tax reform – Personal
• Lower tax rates • Nearly doubles standard deduction • Caps mortgage and SALT deductions
– Corporate
• Tax rate 35% to 21% – Repatriation @ 15.5%
• Immediate expensing for small business • Pass through income
Year One Trump Administration
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• Much needed regulatory relief
• 22 deregulatory actions for every 1 regulatory action
• Agencies have: – Withdrawn 653 regulations – 244 regulations made inactive – 700 regulations delayed
Year One Trump Administration
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• New administration has thus far avoided SkyMall™ Policies Sky Mall™ Policy:
An Expensive Policy that Fails to
Achieve its Desired Outcome
Year One Trump Administration
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U.S. Forecast
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19181716151413121110090807060504030201
155.0
150.0
145.0
140.0
135.0
130.0
125.0
Total Nonfarm Payroll Employment(Millions)
Total Nonfarm Employment
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19181716151413121110090807060504030201
10.0
9.0
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
Civilian Unemployment Rate(%)
Unemployment Rate
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2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
GDP % Change, Annual Rate 2.6 1.5 2.4 3.5 3.2
Consumer Price Index % Change, Annual Rate 0.1 1.3 2.1 2.8 2.9
Consumer Sentiment 92.9 91.8 94.4 95.7 97.5
Consumption % Change, Annual Rate 3.2 2.7 2.7 2.9 3.3
U.S. Forecast
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Florida Forecast
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Florida Forecast
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November 2017 November 2016 Percent change
Closed Sales 19,990 19,725 1.3%
Median Sale Price $240,000 $220,000 9.1%
Median Days on Market 46 43 7.0%
Inventory (Months Supply) 3.8 4.1 -7.3%
Florida Housing Market
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November 2017 November 2016 Percent change
Closed Sales 752 715 5.2%
Median Sale Price $218,000 $189,000 15.3%
Median Days on Market 30 26 15.4%
Inventory (Months Supply) 2.8 2.5 12.0%
Orlando Housing Market
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Florida Forecast
21201918171615141312111009080706050403
300.0
250.0
200.0
150.0
100.0
50.0
0.0
7.0%
6.0%
5.0%
4.0%
3.0%
Florida Housing Starts(thousands)
Total Private Housing Starts30 year Mortgage Rates
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Florida Forecast
21201918171615141312111009080706050403
23000.0
22000.0
21000.0
20000.0
19000.0
18000.0
17000.0
16000.0
Florida Population(Thousands)
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Florida Forecast
21201918171615141312111009080706050403
14.0%
12.0%
10.0%
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
Florida & U.S. Unemployment Rate(%)
FL Unemployment RateU.S. Unemployment Rate
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Florida Forecast
21201918171615141312111009080706050403
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
Florida Real Gross State Product(% change year ago)
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Florida Forecast
21201918171615141312111009080706050403
9500.0
9000.0
8500.0
8000.0
7500.0
7000.0
Florida Employment(Thousands)
Wage & Salary Employment
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Florida Forecast
21201918171615141312111009080706050403
700.0
600.0
500.0
400.0
300.0
Florida Construction Employment(Thousands)
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Florida Forecast
21201918171615141312111009080706050403
1700.01600.01500.01400.01300.01200.01100.01000.0900.0
Florida Professional & Business Services Employment
(Thousands)
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Florida Forecast
21201918171615141312111009080706050403
1250.01200.01150.01100.01050.01000.0950.0900.0850.0
Florida Leisure & Hospitality Employment
(Thousands)
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Florida Forecast
21201918171615141312111009080706050403
620.0600.0580.0560.0540.0520.0500.0480.0460.0
Florida Financial Activities Employment
(Thousands)
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2018-2021 Averages; Q4 2017 Forecast
Florida
Sector % Average Annual Growth
Construction 6.3 Professional & Business Services 5.2 Financial 2.5 Trade, Transportation & Utilities 1.4
State & Local Government 1.4
Manufacturing 1.3
Education-Health Services 1.1
Information 1.0 Federal Government 0.8 Leisure & Hospitality 0.7
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Region Population Growth Average % Chg Rank
Florida 1.5 ---
Deltona 1.5 5
Gainesville 0.7 11
Jacksonville 1.5 4
Lakeland 1.3 7
Miami 1.2 8
Naples 2.5 1 Ocala 1.7 3
Orlando 2.0 2
Palm Bay 1.2 10
Pensacola 0.7 12
Tallahassee 1.2 9
Tampa 1.4 6
2018-2021 Averages; Q4 2017 Forecast
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Region Employment Growth Average % Chg Rank
Florida 2.0 ---
Deltona 1.7 9
Gainesville 1.1 12
Jacksonville 2.4 4
Lakeland 1.7 8
Miami 2.2 6
Naples 3.5 1 Ocala 2.4 5
Orlando 2.8 2
Palm Bay 2.1 7
Pensacola 1.2 11
Tallahassee 1.6 10
Tampa 2.5 3
2018-2021 Averages; Q4 2017 Forecast
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2018-2021 Averages; Q4 2017 Forecast
Orlando
Sector % Average Annual Growth
Construction 6.5 Professional & Business Services 6.0 Financial 3.2 Leisure & Hospitality 2.0 Education-Health Services 1.9 State & Local Government 1.5 Information 1.5 Manufacturing 1.3 Trade, Transportation & Utilities 1.1 Federal Government -0.2
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Orange County Forecast
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Orange County Forecast
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Orange County Forecast
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Orange County Forecast
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Orange County Forecast
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Orange County Forecast
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Orange County Forecast
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Orange County Forecast
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Orange County Forecast
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Orange County Forecast
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Orange County Forecast
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Orange County Forecast
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Sean M. Snaith, Ph.D.
Director
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
(407) 823-1453
WWW.IEC.UCF.EDU
www.facebook.com/seansnaith
Twitter: @seansnaith
Thank you