Unlocking alternative investment opportunities
in the Chinese Dream
Exploring the Pilbara Iron Ore Region in Western Australia
June 2014
THE CHINESE DREAM
2
2013 global demand
2020 global demand
“The Chinese Dream fundamentally is the dream
of the Chinese people… to build a moderately
prosperous society…”
Xi Jinping, President of China (Mar-13)
The realisation of ‘The Chinese Dream’
• 20m Chinese annually moving to urban regions
• Urbanisation directly correlated to per capital steel consumption (and consequential iron ore demand)
• 40% forecast increase in Chinese steel production (2015-2025)
• US$6.8 trillion ‘National New-Type Urbanisation Plan’ (Mar-14)
• 100 million Chinese to be integrated into urban regions by 2020
CHINA URBANISATION
Intrinsic link to iron ore demand
3
Chinese Household – Steel Intensity
Chinese Population – Rural vs Urban
Iron ore – a commodity with decades of demand
• China responsible for circa 50% of worldwide demand
RISING IRON ORE DEMAND
China leading demand
4
Global Crude Steel Production, Mt
Global Demand – Iron Ore Imports
Tomorrow’s best positioned miners
• Lowest cost position Rio = US$40/tonne BHPB = US$44/tonne FMG = US$50/tonne
• Eternal producers 2013 demand = 1,260Mt 2016 demand = 1,500Mt Global demand needs to halve before miners reduce export volumes
• Highest Fe content globally
THE PILBARA – GLOBALLY COMPETITIVE POSITION
The world’s lowest production costs
5
US$ cost to produce per tonne
THE CHINESE DREAM – GROWTH = POLLUTION
Chinese government declaring war
6
• Beijing second most polluted city globally City second most worse living environment in the world (Shanghai Academy of Science, Feb-14)
THE CHINESE DREAM – DOMESTIC IRON ORE KEY POLLUTION CONTRIBUTOR
Dirty smelters with domestic low grade ore targeted
7
2013 global demand
• US$1.6bn fund to control air pollution (Feb-14) Established by Chinese government “consumption of coal” to be controlled – iron ore smelters key consumer of coal
• “We will resolutely declare war against pollution as we declared war against poverty” (Mr Li, Premier of China)
THE PILBARA – AUSTRALIAN IRON ORE PRODUCERS
Iron ores are differentiated by quality and cost to customer (Rio Tinto commentary)
8
2013 global demand
2020 global demand
INVESTMENT OPTIONS IN THE PILBARA
9
2013 global demand
2020 global demand
Direct share purchase in miners
Corporate bonds in miners
Purchase of mining related businesses
Investment in Pilbara real estate - debt or equity
(debt being the most tax efficient)
Investment in Pilbara real estate developments (debt or equity)
INVESTMENT OPTIONS IN THE PILBARA – DIRECT SHARES
Western Australian resource companies – outperformance since 2008
10
2020 global demand
Share Market Indices, 2000 = 100
Complete service provider for investors seeking a high return
• Perth based; the largest private property developers in the Pilbara
• Have a build and retain model as rental yields are 8-12% unlevered
• Offer direct and indirect investment with debt or equity instruments, providing fixed returns of 8-20% IRR
• Fully licensed and heavily regulated in Australia, will be listed on the Australian National Stock Exchange providing a fixed 8-12% IRR by year end 2014
MACRO REALTY DEVELOPMENTS
VERTICALLY INTEGRATED
11
MACRO developments
and migration visas
WESTERN AUSTRALIA’S PILBARA REGION
MINERAL AND RESOURCE RICH - LARGEST PROJECTS STILL TO COME
12
WESTERN AUSTRALIA
THREE PILBARA CITIES
13
Three Pilbara Cities offer secure investment
• They support many mines and lucrative resource projects in between
• Are experiencing strong population growth
• Have limited land supply
• Are currently underdeveloped
• Are enjoying significant government investment through a program called ‘Royalties for Regions’
• MACRO is developing real estate in Port Hedland and Newman where the returns have been the highest in Australia (as a
10 year average)
FOCUSSING ON THE PILBARA AT THE MOMENT AS IT IS THE HIGHEST
YIELDING AND GROWTH MARKET IN AUSTRALIA
14
WESTERN AUSTRALIA IS NOW IN THE PHASE OF
A ‘PRODUCTION BOOM’ WITH A STRONG NEED FOR MORE ACCOMODATION
15
THE MOST RECENT COMMSEC REPORT SHOWS
WESTERN AUSTRALIA HAS THE HIGHEST RATE OF POPULATION GROWTH
16
PORT HEDLAND - LARGEST PORT
IN THE WORLD BY BULK EXPORT
Large demand/supply mismatch
• 2013 undersupply of over 1571 dwellings
• Only 611 dwellings are expected by the State Government to
be built over the next 12 months
17
Largest bulk commodities export port
• Exporting iron ore from twelve mines owned by miners such as BHP, Fortescue Metals Group and Atlas Iron
• Seven other operating/committed mining projects located within 50km radius
Strong population growth
• Home to 21,000 residents, Port Hedland is forecast by economist AEC group to reach a population of 35,000 people by 2025.
• Population growth is being driven by
(1) committed new projects,
• (2) significant government investment and
• (3) a trend away from fixed mining camps to residential housing
NEWMAN - LARGEST OPEN CUT
IRON ORE MINE IN THE WORLD
Large demand/supply mismatch
• 2012 undersupply of over 360 dwellings
• 817 new dwellings required by 2015
18
Largest Inland Pilbara town
• Newman is located 6km from Mt Whaleback, the largest open cut iron ore mine in the world
• Mt Whaleback is BHP Billiton’s single, largest project
• Ten other operating/committed mining projects are located within 50km radius (1)
• 1200 kilometres from Perth and 455 kilometres from the nearest city; a key service centre and processing hub
Affluent town of 6,000 residents planned to reach 15,000
• Very high proportion of workforce employed in mining
with an average income of $160,000 per annum
• Median weekly income 2.3x higher than national average (2)
Notes 1. BHP Billiton: Jimblebar, Wheelarra, Ore Bodies 18, 23, 24, 25 Rio Tinto: Hope Downs 4 2. ABS (2011 Census Data)
THE PILBARA – DECADES OF ECONOMIC GROWTH
BHP Billiton’s 100-years of resources
19
2013 global demand
2020 global demand
THE PILBARA – DECADES OF ECONOMIC GROWTH
Rio Tinto iron ore operations
20
2013 global demand
2020 global demand
NEW MINES AND PROJECTS ARE STARTING EVERY MONTH TO CAPITALISE
ON THE LOW COST OF PRODUCTION AND EXISTING INFRASTRUCTURE
21
THE PILBARA PAYS THE HIGHEST
WAGES – CORPORATE TENANTS
22
• There is a large migration to the Pilbara for higher paying jobs (average wage
$160,000 per annum)
• The mining companies and service related companies are the tenants, not the individual employees
(the workers have their accommodation
paid for as part of their salary package)
• Better accommodation, attracts better employees and promotes staff retention
• The companies have a preference for new accommodation
BOTH THE 10 YEAR AVERAGE AUSTRALIAN RENTAL YIELDS AND
CAPITAL GROWTH RATES ARE THE HIGHEST IN THE PILBARA
23
Units % Houses % Avg. 10 year capital growth rate
$460 5.6% $550 4.1% 4.3%
$350 4.1% $360 3.2% 7.1%
$365 5.7% $380 4.4% 8.1%
$350 4.1% $400 3.2% 10.1%
$1,200 10.05% $2,500 14% 27.1%
Sydney
Victoria
Brisbane
Perth
Pilbara
Source: RP Data, Super Ratings, Australian Property Monitors June 2013
PILBARA DEMAND
FOR RENTAL PROPERTIES – MAKING NEWS
24
Examples of current properties available for sale and lease
TYPICAL ACCOMODATION
IN PORT HEDLAND
25
• 90% of accommodation is substandard;
dilapidated – even shipping containers
are being used
• Median prices above $1,000,000 (AUD)
• New properties achieve more than 13%
rental yield, unlevered as there is not
enough supply yet huge demand
• Supply of land in Port Hedland and
Newman, is very restricted
THE PLANE TRIP FROM PERTH TO THE PILBARA FOR
A REGIMENTED FIFO WORKFORCE
26
EXAMPLES OF ‘MAKE – DO’
ACCOMODATION IN THE PILBARA
27
28
SOCIAL IMPACT STUDIES ON THE GROWING WORK FORCE
AND POPULATION IN THE PILBARA
SOCIAL IMPACT STUDIES
FINDINGS OF A GOVERNMENT REPORT
29
30
SOCIAL IMPACT STUDIES
FINDINGS OF A GOVERNMENT REPORT
31
SOCIAL IMPACT STUDIES
FINDINGS OF A GOVERNMENT REPORT
SUPPORT GROUPS FOR THE PARTNERS AND FAMILIES
OF FIFO WORKDERS WHO ARE CURRENTLY LEFT BEHIND
32
33
SOCIAL IMPACT STUDIES
FINDINGS OF A GOVERNMENT REPORT
34
SOCIAL IMPACT STUDIES – THE GOVERNMENT’S RESPONSE
25% OF ROYALTIES TO BE REINVESTED INTO CREATING ‘PILBARA CITIES’
GOVERNMENT INVESTMENT IN THE PILBARA - $1.2 billion COMMITTED
TO REVITALISING PORT HEDLAND AND NEWMAN
35
The government’s vision:
• “to build vibrant cities that offer economic sustainability from one generation to the next”
• “a radical shift in the way we think of the Pilbara – not as a place of transience, but of permanent, thriving communities
EXAMPLE OF WHAT THE GOVERNMENT IS PLANNING FOR NEWMAN
HIGH DENSITY AS THERE IS LIMITED LAND SUPPLY
36
Dominant iron ore producing region globally
Committed expansion plans in Pilbara region
Strong population growth forecast (2010-2015)
Notes 4. Pilbara Planning & Infrastructure Framework 2012, WA Gov. (Jan-12) 5. Population Projections Australia 2006 to 2101, Australian Bureau of Statistics 6. Pilbara Population & Employment Study, PwC (Nov-12) 7. Metalytics (2012) 8. Australia’s Iron Ore Production Quality, Geoscience Australia (2009) 9. Federal Bureau of Resource and Energy Economics (Apr-13)
PILBARA REAL ESTATE -
STRONG FUNDAMENTALS • 2.8% pa increase Pilbara wide (4)
• 2.0x the national average (1.4% pa) (5)
• Lowest cost producers (break-even at $40-50/tonne) (7)
• Highest quality of iron ore deposits@ Fe 62-65% (8)
• $91bn in mining projects planned or committed (9)
Pilbara Population
Pilbara Operational Workforce, (‘000)
Workforce growing a 1.5-1.6x rate of general population (2010-2015)
• 4.4% pa increase in fly-in/fly-out (FIFO) workers (6)
• 4.7% pa increase in residential workers (6)
37
THERE IS NO ‘BOOM / BUST’ WITH THE PILBARA’S IRON ORE PRODUCTION
AS THE LOWEST COST PRODUCERS
38
PORT HEDLAND
SHORTFALL OF ACCOMODATION
39
Council Flood Map – Port Hedland
Required New Dwellings Built vs Forecast Shortfall
• 50% population growth in ten years 2013 population = 20,200 2003 population = 13,100
• Shortfall of 364 dwellings by 2015
• New supply severely constrained Extensive flood plain restrictions Extensive environmental restrictions
Forecast Supply of Land/Dwellings (27)
Notes 27. Property Supply Report, Halcyon Property (Aug-13) 28. Newman Housing Development Summary, Department of Regional Development & Land (Mar-13)
Forecast Short Fall in Dwellings(28)
NEWMAN – SHORTFALL OF ACCOMODATION
40
MACRO REALTY DEVELOPMENTS - PART OF THE SOLUTION
FOR PROVIDING QUALITY ACCOMODATION IN THE ‘PILBARA CITIES’
41
A new town centre is planned
Providing a variety of shops, amenities,
facilities and accommodation
Concept plans for MACRO Realty Development’s town centre projects
MACRO’S TOWN CENTRE AND RESIDENTIONAL SUBDIVISION PLANS
MOST LAND IN PORT HEDLAND IS FLOOD PRONE
42
McGregory St is the only residential site immediately developable
PORT HEDLAND
MACRO’S NEXT PROJECT
44
McGregory St – Fully Approved, 91 Land Lot Subdivision (Mar-13)
Port Hedland – Flood Plain Constrained
• McGregor St (640 dwellings) Mar-13 planning approved for 248 Construction can commence immediately
• Spoilbank – proposed Rezoning years away Feb-14 WA Environmental Protection Authority rejected rezoning due to dust levels (from iron ore loading)
• Pretty Pool – proposed Rezoning process not yet underway Artificial lake/canals required to manage flooding
Site
Pretty Pool: Requires rezoning,
extensive dredging, land fill and
environmental hurdles
Spoilbank: Requires rezoning,
extensive land fill and storm surge
protection ; dust issues
THE MAJORITY OF PILBARA LAND
CAN NOT BE DEVELOPED – Newman example
1.
2.
3.
45
Topography (hills and flood plains) (24)
Native title clearance
Services (power, water, wastewater)
Financing (major banks focusing on capital cities)
Notes 23. Building the Pilbara, Pilbara Development Commission (Jun-13) 24. Pilbara Vernacular Handbook, Western Australian Government (Nov-11)
For the following reasons, supply remains tight
WITH THE LAND AND FURTHER INVESTMENT
WE CAN MAKE THE PILBARA CITIES LIVEABLE
46
INVESTING IN OUR DEVELOPMENTS OR PORTFOLIOS
HELPS TRANSFORM THIS:
47
IN TO THIS - LIVEABLE COMPLEXES AND CITIES WHERE WORKERS
CAN MAINTAIN RELATIONSHIPS AND HAVE A GOOD QUALITY OF LIFE
48
PLACES WHERE WORKERS SUPPORTING THIS GLOBAL URBANISATION
CAN BE WITH THEIR PARTNERS AND FAMILIES AFTER WORK HOURS
49
50
ACTUAL PHOTOS OF PROPERTIES LEASED AT 8-12% OF PURCHASE PRICE
MACRO REALTY DEVELOPMENT’S BLENDED PORTFOLIOS RETURN 14% IRR
51
ACTUAL PHOTOS OF PROPERTIES LEASED AT 8-12% OF PURCHASE PRICE
MACRO REALTY DEVELOPMENT’S BLENDED PORTFOLIOS RETURN 14% IRR
52
ACTUAL PHOTOS OF PROPERTIES LEASED AT 8-12% OF PURCHASE PRICE
MACRO REALTY DEVELOPMENT’S BLENDED PORTFOLIOS RETURN 14% IRR
53
ACTUAL PHOTOS OF PROPERTIES LEASED AT 8-12% OF PURCHASE PRICE
MACRO REALTY DEVELOPMENT’S BLENDED PORTFOLIOS RETURN 14% IRR
54
ACTUAL PHOTOS OF PROPERTIES LEASED AT 8-12% OF PURCHASE PRICE
MACRO REALTY DEVELOPMENT’S BLENDED PORTFOLIOS RETURN 14% IRR
55
ACTUAL PHOTOS OF PROPERTIES LEASED AT 8-12% OF PURCHASE PRICE
MACRO REALTY DEVELOPMENT’S BLENDED PORTFOLIOS RETURN 14% IRR
DEVELOPMENT FUNDING OPPORTUNIITIES OF 16 TO 20% IRR ARE AVAILABLE
56
PART PROCEEDS OF DEVELOPMENTS GO TO CHARITY
57
• Development proceeds (10%) this financial year go towards the Minderoo Foundation (Andrew Forrest’s charity)
Minderoo and Andrew Forrest
• Andrew Forrest (now a billionaire) founded Fortescue Metals Group in April 2003
• Andrew Forrest is the first Australian to have joined the Giving Pledge (along with
Richard Branson, Bill Gates and Warren Buffet); which donates the majority of their wealth to charity
• Since 2001 the Minderoo Foundation has donated $274,403,266 to charity
.
Unlocking alternative investment opportunities
in the Chinese Dream
Exploring the Pilbara Iron Ore Region in Western Australia
June 2014